00:28Transcription by CastingWords
00:58Transcription by CastingWords
01:28Transcription by CastingWords
01:30This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda.
01:33Analysts predict military modernisation will accelerate in countries in Southeast Asia this year,
01:40either driven by growing uncertainty in the overall security environment or perhaps contestation closer to home.
01:47In this episode, we want to understand current trends and shifts in defence diplomacy and military modernisation in the region
01:55and what we can expect in the years to come.
01:58To unpack, we have joining us now Dr. Abdul Rahman Yaqub, Assistant Professor at Rabdan Security and Defence Institute.
02:04Thank you so much, Dr. Rahman, for joining us on Awani Global.
02:08Maybe we can start off with a sort of a bigger picture question.
02:11You know, as we see, not just Southeast Asia, but the world as a whole is entering this more and
02:17more uncertain time.
02:19From your perspective, what do you think are some of the biggest trends or shifts in the region's security environment
02:25right now?
02:26Well, thank you for having me.
02:28I think first and foremost, we have to acknowledge that the Chinese military has actually been modernised and actually has
02:36been expanded.
02:38The Chinese Navy, for example, has already outnumbered the American Navy in terms of the number of warships.
02:45So if you look at the maritime domains, the Chinese is quite, I would say, has more capacity and capabilities
02:53compared to the Americans.
02:54That's number one.
02:55And number two, if you look at the US-China rivalry, I think that's another issue that we have to
03:02consider.
03:03So on the economic front, we have the tariff war, but on the military front, we have seen more Americans'
03:11involvement in this part of the world.
03:13So from my research, between 2017 and 2024, we have seen more Americans' military exercises involving regional country.
03:23The Americans are coming here to conduct defence agreements and to also conduct dialogue, defence dialogue with regional country.
03:33So we see a bit of militarisation of this part of the world in recent years.
03:38So that's something that we should monitor closely.
03:42And do you foresee this trend, especially in defence spending and procurement in Southeast Asia, to continue accelerating in 2026
03:50and potentially the years to come?
03:53Yes and no.
03:55Yes, because many of the Southeast Asian countries, they have major security concerns.
04:01One of them is China.
04:03Second is that they are quite concerned about the threat posed by their neighbouring country.
04:09For example, we look at Cambodia and Thailand.
04:13But no, because of what's going on in the Middle East.
04:17If you have seen that the oil prices have gone up, some of the regional country, the economies might be
04:25affected or may be affected and the government will have less income.
04:29So that may likely have an impact on how much resources that a country can actually allocate to defence spending.
04:37So at this point in time, the situation is still fluid.
04:40In fact, we may see a dip in defence spending next year if the current military conflicts in the Middle
04:47East continue.
04:50You mentioned the US and China.
04:52If we were to start with the US and the role they play in the region,
04:56we can see that the US is stepping up security cooperation with countries like the Philippines, Vietnam and even Cambodia
05:02that we know is more so friendly with China.
05:06Now, do you think this is about deterrence or is it about containment of China?
05:11What do you think is driving this?
05:13Yeah, first and foremost, the Southeast Asian region is quite important because of the critical waterway like the Strait of
05:20Malacca, Sunda Strait, Lombok Strait.
05:23And of course, the Americans are quite concerned that regional country might be under pressure from the Chinese military presence
05:32in this part of the world.
05:33I think one of the reasons, that is why they are trying to be more involved, try to improve the
05:39capabilities of this ASEAN country.
05:43I'll give you an example in Malaysia.
05:45Not many know that the Americans and the Malaysians, they have quite close defence, I would say, cooperation.
05:52The Americans supply air defence weather to Malaysia and I think it was placed either in Sabah or Sarawak.
05:59And the Americans have also donated maritime capabilities plane that actually can monitor the maritime domain.
06:09So we have seen more American involvement to support the Malaysians' defence capabilities.
06:16I mean, given this long-standing relationship, do you think that Southeast Asian countries actually trust long-term US commitment,
06:25especially given the shifting priorities that we're seeing in Washington right now?
06:28Do you think that's bound to change?
06:31Yes, sad to say that for many years, there has been concerns among some Southeast Asian defence planner
06:38that the American commitment is actually not permanent.
06:43I'll give you an example.
06:45One of the senior defence officials from a maritime Southeast Asian country,
06:50he mentioned that he's quite concerned that if the Americans suffer heavy casualties in any military conflict with China,
06:58they may just decide to pack everything and go back to Hawaii.
07:01So what will happen to the rest of ASEAN?
07:03We will still have to stay and leave with China.
07:06So if you look at what's going on in this part of the world,
07:10the Americans are pulling out resources, sending them from the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East.
07:16The question is, what is their main priority?
07:19Are we at the bottom of the priority list?
07:22So I think that's something many ASEAN countries will start to consider and look at.
07:27If we were to look at China now, how do you think we should understand China's strategy in Southeast Asia?
07:33Do you think it's coercive, opportunistic, or do you think that they're just simply asserting what they think is their
07:41right?
07:42Okay, China adopts different strategy depending on the context.
07:46It will be a bit coercive.
07:48For example, in the case of the Philippines,
07:50the Philippines try to claim certain parts in the South China Sea that the Chinese claims also.
07:57And the Chinese are coming down hard on the Filipinos.
08:00But the Chinese are not that foolish.
08:04I mean, as far as possible, they will try to employ a soft power to capture the elites.
08:10If you look at the case of, for example, Cambodia, under the Premier Hun Sen,
08:16I think the government has chosen the side of China because China have invested quite a fair bit in Cambodia
08:22and supported Cambodia military modernization program.
08:26So I think the Chinese or Beijing actually is playing a very smart strategy.
08:31They use soft power where is it possible?
08:35And of course, hard power, depending on the context.
08:39How do you think the situation in the South China Sea will unfold in 2026,
08:45particularly with the Philippines as Chair of ASEAN this year?
08:48Do you think it will remain business as usual for them?
08:50Or do you think that Philippines might want to take a stronger stance?
08:54I believe that most likely it will remain like a status quo.
09:00There's effort to conclude the Code of Conduct Agreement.
09:03But over the years, every year, all the ASEAN chairs say the same thing.
09:08But at the end of the year, nothing happened.
09:11One of the major reasons is because we have 10 ASEAN countries,
09:15or now 11 ASEAN countries, negotiating with China.
09:18Each one of them have different positions.
09:21So to come to a common denominator is pretty difficult.
09:24You know, we're talking about the US and China.
09:27And the normal approach among countries in the region is
09:31they often say they don't want to choose sides.
09:33Do you think that in this case, and especially in the current landscape,
09:37the current climate right now, do you think, you know,
09:39multi-alignment or even strategies like hedging,
09:43do you think this is still viable, especially in the security context?
09:47Yes, hedging is possible when both superpowers,
09:51they are not applying force or apply hard power on the smaller states.
09:56But if you look at what is going on in South America, in the Caribbean,
10:01we have seen Americans, they are using, applying hard power against smaller states.
10:07So at that point in time, I think the smaller states do not have any choice,
10:11but they need to take a side.
10:14So I think this is what, this is a major concern for South East Asian countries.
10:20If, for example, the American decided, look, we need to come down hard on China,
10:24and you have to choose whether you trade with us or you trade with China.
10:28So that's something that the South East Asian countries will have to decide for themselves.
10:33They will do the calculation whether siding with Americans will bring more benefit
10:38or to go with China.
10:40So it's not an easy answer at this point in time.
10:44Do you think what's happening between the US, Israel and Iran right now
10:48might affect perceptions in the region?
10:52Yes.
10:53If you look at it this way, the Gulf country actually,
10:56they host American military bases.
10:59In the understanding that these bases will be able to protect them from Iran.
11:03But as we have seen, in fact, these bases actually attract Iran firing missiles into this country.
11:11And I think this is the question that maybe the Philippines and Singapore will have to consider
11:15because they do host a large number of American military forces.
11:21If there is a military conflict between the US and China,
11:24no doubt that China will decide to hit these military facilities,
11:30either in Singapore and the Philippines, that are hosting American forces.
11:33So the question is, does the American military presence in this country
11:39bring benefits to the country or it will bring more costs to the country?
12:00If we were to look in the economic context,
12:04if we were to talk about US tariffs, for example,
12:07a lot of analysts were pushing for market diversification as a means of reducing reliance on the US market.
12:15If we were to apply this same approach in the context of security and defence spending,
12:21we can see that there is a noticeable diversification of arms suppliers in the region.
12:26We're looking at France, Turkey and even India.
12:30Do you think this is something new?
12:32And if so, what do you think is driving this shift?
12:35Yeah, it is quite something new because ASEAN country or the original five ASEAN country,
12:41they operate almost similar weapon platform supplied by the Americans during the Cold War.
12:46But I think in recent years, they have moved towards a non-American weapon platform.
12:53There are many reasons.
12:54First, first is the cost.
12:56American platforms are more expensive.
12:58So if you can get nearly a platform that has almost similar capabilities,
13:04but at a cheaper rate, why not?
13:06Second, every time the Americans sell weapons to the customer,
13:12they have a lot of conditions, how you use it and things like that.
13:16So some other countries, they do not have that much restrictions.
13:19And that also drive country like, for example, Indonesia to purchase combat aircraft from Turkey and from France.
13:29So there's several factors that actually drive Southeast Asian countries to diversify.
13:35And cost is one of them.
13:36And of course, some of them, they do not want to be over-reliant on the Americans in terms of
13:42weapons.
13:43Because if 100% of your weapons are supplied by the Americans,
13:48the Americans can decide to cause problem in the supply chain and how you operate your combat aircraft,
13:55how do you operate your warship if everything comes from the Americans.
14:01On this note, correct me if I'm wrong,
14:04but I think some trends are showing that there's more and more investment,
14:08particularly in naval and air capabilities that we're seeing from countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and even Malaysia.
14:15What do you think this says about how these countries might perceive ongoing or future conflicts?
14:23I think if you look at Southeast Asia, most of Southeast Asia are actually water.
14:29So the army play a lesser role in a conflict over the waters.
14:33And that's why many ASEAN countries, they start to modernize or invest more in naval capabilities.
14:40They start to buy newer combat aircraft.
14:43So I think the expectation is that any future military conflict most likely will take place in the air and
14:51in the maritime domain.
14:53But having said that, you know, country like Laos, Myanmar,
14:58I think their main focus will tend to be in the army because they are facing certain threats,
15:02certain security concerns that is mostly coming out from in the land domain.
15:08So for the rest of the maritime Southeast Asia, I believe that they are going to invest more in their
15:14navies and in their air force.
15:16If you look at Indonesia, like what you mentioned, they are buying newer warships from all over the place.
15:22Singapore is building up to 10 new warships at this point in time.
15:25And of course, Malaysia has its own defense program to purchase new warships.
15:32Talking about this trend of military modernization, you mentioned some factors there.
15:37But do you think this is ultimately more about deterrence?
15:40Or do you think that there is this threat, this possibility of actual conflict scenarios
15:46that is becoming more and more real for the region as we're seeing with Thailand and Cambodia in the past
15:51year, for example?
15:53Yes, deterrence is one factor.
15:56It's the first factor.
15:57So if you have a capable navy and air force, it might deter any hostile actor from taking action.
16:05But if deterrence fails, then that's why you need a capable military to defeat the enemy.
16:12So the investment actually deals with deterrence and also to improve the capabilities to destroy or to defeat the potential
16:20enemy.
16:21I think we see that, for example, the Philippines, they are developing, they are buying modern aircraft and investing in
16:30modern warships
16:31because they know that their old fleet of warships cannot compete with China.
16:35So modern warships that are capable to launch missiles, they might provide some deterrence against China.
16:42I mean, as we're seeing tensions like the Thailand-Kambodia border situation,
16:46what do you think are some of the more likely flashpoints in Southeast Asia for the next one to three
16:52years?
16:54Yeah, the major potential flashpoint will be Cambodia-Thailand.
16:59And the other one, which I hope doesn't take place, is the Malaysia-Indonesia over the Ambalad Sea.
17:07I think there's some negotiation between the two countries.
17:10But what happened last year was that I noticed certain parties have started to put up anti-Malaysian campaign in
17:19the social media,
17:20criticizing Malaysia, accusing Malaysia of harming Indonesian fishermen.
17:24So we are not sure whether, where will this go to?
17:29Will there be more tension between Indonesia and Malaysia?
17:32So these are two potential major flashpoints among ASEAN countries.
17:38But the elephant in the room will be likely the South China Sea and Taiwan.
17:44We know that China actually claimed a large part of the South China Sea.
17:48Will China apply military force to reclaim certain portion that the Filipinos and the Malaysians are claiming?
17:55The other one is Taiwan.
17:57If China decide to use military force against Taiwan, we will see an influx of refugees coming in from Taiwan
18:04into the Philippines,
18:06and maybe they may take boats down all the way to Borneo.
18:08So these are potential areas of conflict.
18:12I want to go back to the South China Sea.
18:15As you mentioned, this potentially becoming a remaining flashpoint for the region.
18:20And as you said previously, realistically, I think it's difficult to expect progress in the South China Sea code of
18:26conduct in the ASEAN framework.
18:28But if we're looking at statements from the Philippines that they've said they want to be prepared,
18:35and they're preparing essentially for a delay in allied support, much like what we're seeing with the sentiment in the
18:42Middle East
18:42that this alliance can possibly not just become an issue of delay, but potentially a hindrance of some sorts.
18:52What do you think this is about alliance reliability in a crisis, particularly in the context of the Philippines?
18:59Yes, I think the Philippines has taken a clear stand that it is taking the side of the Americans in
19:06the case of the South China Sea.
19:07So the problem is that whether the Americans are able to provide sufficient support in a short space of time.
19:16I think given that, you know, the Americans are now focusing on the Middle East,
19:19and the Americans are running out of interceptor missiles.
19:24So how are they going to defend the Philippines, even if there's a future conflict?
19:30So this is the factor that the Filipinos have actually considered.
19:34So when I spoke to Filipino officials, they did mention that because of the uncertainty about the American support,
19:42that's the reason why they have been signing plenty of defense agreement with, for example, Japan, with the French,
19:48and of course, with other countries.
19:50So Manila is hoping that in the event of a military conflict,
19:55they would be able to draw support from other middle powers, not only from the Americans,
20:01to help them to counter the threats from China.
20:04If the current trends continue, as we've talked about with increasing diversification in military modernization,
20:12and even in defense diplomacy, what do you think Southeast Asia security architecture and landscape as a whole will look
20:19like in the next 5-10 years?
20:22That's something that is quite worrying.
20:26So as part of my project, I look at the number of defense agreement, number of dialogue mechanism,
20:33and of course, the number of joint military exercises between ASEAN country and external partner.
20:39So between 2017 and 2024, all the numbers of all these metrics have gone up.
20:46It shows that major power and middle powers such as Australia, European country, Japan, South Korea,
20:54they are investing more and more in this part of the world in terms of improving the ASEAN's defense capabilities.
21:02I think the concern here is that will it lead to an arm race among the ASEAN country?
21:07That's one.
21:08Second, will it lead to a more militarization of this part of the world?
21:14And I think that's something that we should try to avoid, actually, because you see, when in a small space
21:22like the South China Sea,
21:23when there are so many players moving in their forces, accident can happen and things may escalate quickly.
21:31I mean, as you said, and you laid out some of these potential risks for the next 5-10 years,
21:37increasing militarization, a more militarized region.
21:40Do you think that Malaysia is well-equipped for that kind of environment in the region?
21:47I think the Malaysian government, so far from my understanding,
21:51they know that there are certain areas that they have to improve on.
21:55For example, they are looking at modern combat aircraft.
21:58They are looking to modernize their navy.
22:01But the concern is that how are they going to implement it?
22:04I think the Malaysian's defense budget is pretty small.
22:07That's one.
22:07The other thing is the procurement process sometimes is questionable.
22:12I think we have looked at some of the naval acquisition program in Malaysia,
22:17that payment has been made, but the WOSIP is not completed yet.
22:21So that's something that the Malaysians have to look into in order to modernize their military,
22:29to deter any hostile actor.
22:32But having said that, I think Malaysia is quite good in terms of defense diplomacy.
22:36The Malaysian government is able to negotiate with China, to my understanding,
22:42so that China does not block Malaysia from extracting economic resources from the South China Sea.
22:49So I think sometimes, instead of buying more weapons, more combat aircraft,
22:55what Malaysia did is to engage them on the diplomatic fronts to extract the benefits.
22:59Plenty more I'd like to discuss, but unfortunately that's all the time that we have today.
23:03Thank you so much, Dr. Rahman, for joining us on Awani Global.
23:06Thank you very much.
23:08That was Dr. Abdul Rahman Yaakob, Assistant Professor at Ramdan Security and Defense Institute, RSDI,
23:13sharing some insights on current trends and shifts in defense diplomacy and military modernization in Southeast Asia.
23:20That is all on Awani Global this week with me, Nalouda.
23:22We'll catch you the next time.
25:04You
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