- 7 months ago
Nailah Huda speaks with analyst Rowena Abdul Razak on Israel’s unprecedented strike in Qatar, its impact on ceasefire talks, and what it means for the wider Middle East.
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00:00This is Awani Global with me, Nala Huda.
00:09Almost two years now since 7 Oktober 2023, Israel's relentless war has shown zero signs of slowing down.
00:18In just this week, in three days, Israel has carried out strikes against six countries.
00:23That's Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen and of course Qatar.
00:28The unprecedented airstrike in Doha, Qatar sent shockwaves not just in the region but across the world,
00:35raising critical questions about how far the international community will allow Israel to continue this war and this violence
00:42and what it means for the ceasefire talks with Qatar still playing its role as a key mediator.
00:49And we're very pleased to have with us in the studio to help us unpack some of these key questions.
00:54Rowena Razak, lecturer in Middle East History at the School of Oriental and African Studies.
00:58Thank you so much, Rowena. We've had interviews virtually but we're very pleased to have you in the studio with us today.
01:07And of course, we want to talk about what's happened, what's transpired in the past few days, not just with Qatar but in Yemen as well.
01:14But what's unprecedented is that this is Israel's first direct attack on Qatari soil.
01:19How significant is this moment in the region and I guess just your initial reactions on what's happened.
01:26Thank you so much for having me. It's good to be here in person in the studio.
01:30Thank you. It's quite incredible, I mean, that Israel is really trying to push as far as it can.
01:38The boundaries that it's willing to push, it's just incredible.
01:41The attack on Tehran we thought was already bad.
01:44But now directly attacking Qatar, a key U.S. ally, is quite shocking.
01:50So the initial reaction is one of shock. I think Qatar probably didn't see it coming, although this is not an attack that happened overnight.
02:00This kind of attack takes months of planning.
02:02So clearly Israel had been thinking about doing this attack and carrying out this attack.
02:06So the fact that it's happened just means that it is serious or is not serious about a ceasefire negotiation,
02:15that it does not care what the international community thinks of it, doesn't even care what the U.S. thinks of it.
02:22So it's just one of shock and just surprise, not even surprise anymore at this point really.
02:30But how do you think this makes it any different from what Israel has done in the past?
02:34Like I've said, we've seen some unprecedented attacks before, just in recent months with the attacks in Tehran and Iran.
02:42But what makes this different?
02:44The difference is that this is a key U.S. ally.
02:47Qatar has U.S. bases on its soil.
02:50Qatar is a very important negotiator in the ceasefire discussions, also with regards to Gaza.
03:00Qatar is a key player in the region.
03:03So not only is Israel attacking someone that it has been in negotiations with, which makes Israel, quite frankly, completely untrustworthy.
03:17It also shows that it really, as I said already, doesn't care.
03:21But Qatar is a very important player in the Middle East, in the region.
03:25Not just in the region, but in the Middle East in general.
03:28It is also has good relations with Iran, has good relations with, I mean, has had poor relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the past,
03:38but that has improved in recent months and in recent months.
03:42So it is an indication that Israel is very keen on destabilizing the region.
03:51It is not, and even though there's been calls to make sure that this doesn't escalate,
03:56Israel is very keen to make sure that the chaos continues.
03:59For various reasons, because it wants to continue its campaign in Gaza.
04:04Netanyahu is facing corruption charges.
04:06I think he appeared in court just a few days ago.
04:09So there is a need for Israel to continue its chaos.
04:14Sorry, I've sort of drifted away from the question, but I think we need to sort of see it and contextualize this attack in a bigger picture.
04:21You pointed out some really important points there.
04:25And as you said, it's not as if Israel cares or gives a care much for the consequences that's to come,
04:31not with its relationship with the U.S. and of course in the region.
04:36But for various reasons, as you said, this instability is deliberate, right?
04:43But going back to the role that Qatar plays as the key mediator in the ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel as well,
04:51what does this mean then?
04:52How does this play out in the context of the ceasefire?
04:55Or has Israel just long given up on that?
04:58I think what's quite interesting is that Qatar is a very measured player.
05:04It's been attacked.
05:06It's not downplaying the seriousness of this attack.
05:09You know, there were casualties.
05:10Maybe the Hamas leadership wasn't killed.
05:13But I think the son was killed.
05:16The son of the key Hamas negotiator was killed.
05:20So this is not insignificant on that part.
05:22But Qatar has pledged to continue its role as a mediator, showing that Qatar is trying to play the bigger part here, which is quite important.
05:31Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani, I believe, has actually even said that this is part of Qatari identity,
05:39that it wants to play this role as negotiator.
05:42It wants to continue its role.
05:43It has said that it reserves the right to retaliate.
05:48But as far as the ceasefire and its role as mediator is concerned, that's going to continue.
05:53And I think that says a lot about Qatar.
05:56It puts Israel in even worse light already because here they are.
06:00They were at the negotiating table just a few days ago.
06:03Trump and Israel had more or less accepted Trump's terms of a ceasefire.
06:09And then just yesterday, well, just very recently, it's launched an attack on Qatar.
06:16So it's shown itself to be just a dishonest player.
06:22But for Qatar, it's remained and wants to stay true to its role as mediator, which I think is great.
06:29You mentioned about how this paints Israel in a bad light, not that it hasn't already been tainted by so many past incidents before.
06:37But talking about the notion of narrative and the notion of perception,
06:43could you see what Israel has done with these unprecedented attacks?
06:48Do you see this backfire potentially by strengthening Hamas's narrative
06:54and rallying even more regional support for the group, perhaps even across the region or beyond the region?
07:01It's quite interesting when we see how various players in the region has reacted.
07:06I mean, there's been very clear condemnation on Qatar's, the violation on Qatar's sovereignty from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait.
07:17All of the, everyone has come up strongly in solidarity with Qatar.
07:21They have been quite careful about Hamas in the sense that the rhetoric has been to support Qatar
07:28and Qatar wants a regional and collective response.
07:32But countries are still not 100% saying this is, we're going to support Hamas completely.
07:39Having said that, of course, you know, the usual allies of Hamas have obviously come up in support of Hamas,
07:45whether it's Iran, whether it's Malaysia as well, you know.
07:48But at the same time, I think there's still caution about how to deal with Hamas and how to manage it.
07:56Going back to how Qatar has now framed this, you know, it's described this attack in various ways.
08:04But one of it, Qatar has called this a flagrant violation of sovereignty and international law.
08:08Just touching briefly on international law, how strong do you think is the legal case against Israel here?
08:15Or are we just beyond that point of return already?
08:20It's quite unfortunate because it's very clear that Israel has violated many, many, many kinds of international law,
08:27whether it's the genocide itself in Gaza, how it's conducted its war in Gaza.
08:32I mean, the ICJ has called the occupation unlawful.
08:37The UN Special Committee has found Israel guilty of genocide.
08:42So it's all very clear.
08:43And now this is a clear violation of a country, a foreign country's sovereignty.
08:49They're sending missiles and not just, it's not just even sending missiles.
08:52I think Israel even used planes.
08:54So they had flown through airspace of different countries to get to it.
08:57So we're looking at various violations of how, of rules of engagement and rules of conflict and war.
09:06So that's clear.
09:07It's the implementation of international law, which has always been very, very tricky.
09:12And I mean, just recently, Israeli President Herzog, he's in the United Kingdom.
09:19He shook hands with Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
09:22What does that say about the international community?
09:24They may condemn whether they implement is another matter.
09:28So, yes, they're against international law, but the implementation of international law is notoriously difficult.
09:36As we've touched on this, Qatar, what makes this sort of unprecedented and what makes this different than what's happened before
09:44is Qatar being a key U.S. ally in the region.
09:48How do you expect the U.S. to play this out?
09:50I mean, there's a lot at play here, of course, not just with Qatar's role, but with President Trump.
09:56Him vying for the Nobel Peace Prize, I think that's out of the window at this point.
10:01But yeah, how do you think they will play this one out?
10:03The U.S. is under a lot of pressure at the moment.
10:06Just recently, Trump's key ally, Charles Kirk, I believe, was assassinated.
10:11There is a lot of, a lot of his policies are facing backlash.
10:15So the U.S. is under, you know, under Trump's presidency, is kind of falling apart in the best possible way, I suppose, of saying that.
10:26And internationally, Trump, you know, obviously he wants to play this role as a peacekeeper, as someone who can promote peace.
10:33He's very keen on overseeing a lasting ceasefire, a meaningful ceasefire.
10:40But Israel's attack on Qatar has embarrassed him, frankly.
10:45He's very embarrassed. He's very upset.
10:48He knew of the attack beforehand, but only informed Qatar a little bit too late.
10:53I believe 10 minutes after the attack started, only then did, I believe, the Middle East Special Envoy actually told Qatar.
10:59So the U.S. is in a very difficult position.
11:03And judging from what it has done before in the past with Iran, it's possible that the U.S. may not do very much.
11:10At most, it might allow for a controlled response from Qatar, maybe, like how it did with Iran, where it allowed Iran to attack its bases and all that.
11:21It was all very controlled.
11:23The U.S. might allow for something like that.
11:25But at the same time, I think the U.S. is, especially, particularly Trump, is not keen to derail the negotiation process or the ceasefire negotiations.
11:36So it looks like they'll probably, you know, say a lot in terms of we're very upset.
11:42So they're very upset of what Israel did.
11:45They're not happy with Netanyahu.
11:47But at the same time, I think they'll probably want the ceasefire to continue and they'll probably not allow for much more to derail from that, if that makes sense.
11:57What do you mean in that sense that there might be this sort of controlled response that's allowed by the U.S.?
12:04How does that actually work?
12:05It's the same way in the sense that when Israel attacked Iran and Iran retaliated by sending missiles to the base, that was all very controlled in the sense that it was a very direct response.
12:19Iran told the U.S. in advance.
12:22The U.S. told Qatar in advance.
12:23So I wouldn't say it's necessarily performative per se, but it's certainly a kind of performance in the sense that Iran is able to show that it has responded to Israel, but done in a very controlled setting where it doesn't lead to further escalation.
12:39Qatar's sovereignty has been violated.
12:43Qatar has the right to respond.
12:45So if Qatar wishes to do so, the U.S. might, and this is all very maybe, might allow for Qatar to respond to Israel, but in a way that doesn't escalate the situation.
12:59It doesn't cause further destabilization of the negotiation process.
13:03This can include anything from Qatar sending missiles to Israel in advance.
13:08Qatar wouldn't attack the U.S., that doesn't make sense, but probably Qatar attacking Israel in some way.
13:16The official details of the Doha attack hasn't all come out yet, but of course there's a lot of rumors, there's a lot of information being shared on social media among security commentators and followers.
13:28And, you know, there's a lot of say about how this attack actually played out and that it could be controlled in the sense that, you know, I think the U.S. has stated that there were warnings that came before the attack.
13:41So how unprecedented and how unexpected did this attack come?
13:46It was unprecedented to an extent, I think, that no one really thought that Israel would go out, you know, actually attack a mediator.
13:55And they're currently in negotiations right now, you know, for a ceasefire.
14:00So, but at the same time, it's not outside of Israel's playbook.
14:05Israel has done very bizarre and things, bizarre things.
14:11You tried to hold your tongue.
14:12Yes, exactly.
14:14It's sort of very strange and odd things, but to say it's unprecedented, I mean, sorry, unexpected, perhaps not, but it is surprising.
14:24Because it is, Qatar is a key U.S. ally.
14:28It would be strange for Israel to attack, Israel to attack Iran, you can understand.
14:34But Israel to attack Qatar, it's a very surprising move, let's say.
14:39But as I said, this was something that has been in the works for months.
14:42It doesn't just happen overnight.
14:43You know, Netanyahu is, I think it was called the Summit of Fire.
14:48I believe that's the name of the mission.
14:51That has been going on for a long time.
14:54The U.S. claims it didn't know about it until the attack, just before the attacks happened.
15:00But yeah, it's a bit, I would say it's surprising, but not unexpected.
15:03Going back to how Qatar has put out several statements to describe this or to sort of frame this, Qatar's leadership has also suggested that this may be a turning point for regional unity against Israel.
15:19Do you think that this attack could then potentially galvanize states in the region into a more stronger and more coordinated action?
15:29Or do you think the responses will remain mostly rhetorical?
15:32Do you think this is the sort of nail in the coffin or the turning point?
15:37The hope is always that the region, I mean, the region has come together in terms of its statements, in terms of showing solidarity.
15:46But it's still quite, for lack of a better word, clicky.
15:52You know, you have Qatar and Iran, who, even though there was some misunderstanding, you know, there's some tension because of Iran's attack on Qatar, on the military base, the U.S. military base in Qatar.
16:06So that did cause some friction.
16:07But just under a week ago, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi was actually in Doha to improve relations.
16:19And, you know, they've come together again very strongly against Israel.
16:24You know, they've reinforced their alliance.
16:27They have shown support for Hamas and all of these things.
16:30So Iran and Qatar have sort of come together.
16:32So you've got that alliance quite strongly.
16:34But the rest of the region, it's still complex and it's very complicated because, you know, Saudi Arabia doesn't have, I mean, it's improved its relations with Qatar.
16:43It's improved its relations with Iran, but there's still tension.
16:47It's always like, which is the worst enemy?
16:49Is it Iran necessarily or is it Israel?
16:54And, you know, even before October 7th, we did see an improvement of relations between the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
17:01And even though, you know, that's maybe on hold a little bit, you know, that might still be the long term wish.
17:10So I think a lot of countries are still going to be quite careful and look out for their national interests rather than regional interests or to have a kind of united front.
17:20Having said that, the rhetoric is important, that kind of solidarity is also important.
17:28So, you know, the fact that Saudi Arabia, UAE, you know, the brothers of the Gulf, let's say, you know, they have come together in various ways.
17:36But there is still underlying tension of whether they will do something collectively, even though that's what Qatar wants, whether that's what it gets.
17:44I suspect it's more going to be Qatar plus Iran rather than Qatar plus the other Arab Gulf states.
17:52So you think the sort of loose factions and ties will more or less remain?
17:56I believe so.
17:57But it remains to be seen.
17:59As I said, I think national interests of each individual state is still paramount.
18:06Whether they want to do something collectively, regionally remains to be seen.
18:10Qatar has hinted at that, but do you think it's enough to sort of galvanize the other states to move together?
18:17At the moment, it's hard to say.
18:19I mean, Iran is the main player that might do something together with Qatar.
18:25I mean, they have in the past, they can in the past.
18:28As I said, they've shown that they want that relationship to thrive and continue.
18:34So we've got that regional response perhaps on the table.
18:39So whether that includes other Arab Gulf states remains to be seen.
18:44It's hard to say at the moment.
18:46You must remember that all of these other countries have good relations with the US and they may not want to jeopardize that.
18:52So everyone's going to play a very cautious and careful game.
18:55What about beyond the region then among especially Western countries?
18:59We've seen sort of a wave of Palestinian recognition among Western countries.
19:03Do you think that this momentum will go on given what's happened?
19:07Oh, yeah. And I think that it's actually gaining momentum as well.
19:11We have Spain, Germany.
19:15They've all sort of come up very strongly against Israel.
19:18They've imposed sanctions, imposed sanctions on arms and weapons.
19:21The EU Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has also come up just a few days ago against Israel.
19:29So there is a very important response, which is, that's new.
19:34I mean, I think they've tried, they've allowed Israel a lot of leverage, but now it's just too much.
19:39But just briefly to go back to your earlier question, I should have mentioned that there is Yemen, of course.
19:46So in terms of a regional response, it should also possibly, it could possibly include Yemen.
19:50Even though Yemen has been under attack quite severely, they would, they would probably, in any kind of regional response,
19:57would include sort of traditional Qatar allies like Yemen, possibly, you know, Hezbollah as well.
20:04You know, we still have those traditional allies.
20:07It's just with regards to bigger countries like Saudi Arabia and all that might be a bit tricky.
20:13But we do have Yemen as well.
20:15I think from the perspective of, I guess, mainstream thought, there's a lot of talk, I guess, of course,
20:25there's a lot of attention that's turned towards the Gaza 8 flotilla as well.
20:28Do you think that that has anything to do with any of the factors that led up to this attack?
20:36It's possible.
20:37I mean, everything's coming at a particular moment in time, right?
20:40So the Gaza flotilla, you know, they've also been under attack, unfortunately.
20:43So, I mean, but this is not common.
20:47They did that for the previous flotilla as well.
20:50It's just everything's coming at this moment, which coincides, I believe, with what's happening with Israel,
20:55with Netanyahu's corruption trial.
20:57This is a very useful distraction.
21:00Israel is under a lot of pressure because it's gaining a lot of backlash from the international community.
21:06It's former allies, you know, countries like the EU, Germany and all of these countries,
21:11you know, all of these international bodies and organizations and countries are now speaking out against Israel.
21:16So they're very much backed in a corner and their reaction is to be very aggressive, to be even more aggressive.
21:24The attack on Qatar, as I said, it's been in planning for months.
21:27It's come at a good time for Israel because now it's able to distract further.
21:32It's able to be even more aggressive because it distracts people from what's happening in Gaza and so on.
21:40I mean, you're right.
21:41It is all happening all at once, everything everywhere all at once, really.
21:45And it's sort of like a ticking time bomb as well with the issue of starvation in Gaza as well.
21:52I know, as you said, it's very hard to predict what could come next, what Israel could pull out of its cards.
21:59But do you see anything happening or playing out in the next few months that we could expect potentially from Israel or from the US?
22:09A ceasefire would be the obvious thing.
22:13Having said that, though, with imposed sanctions, the EU, again, the EU, which is quite an important organization, I think, to actually come up recently against Israel.
22:26I think that's quite important.
22:28It's possible that Israel will start to feel the pressure.
22:32At the end of the day, with less arms coming its way, less money coming its way, that means it's going to be hard-pressed to continue its campaign in Gaza.
22:43The US is still backing them, and that's always going to be a bit of a difficult one to manage.
22:52But the hope is that aid finally comes true in a better flow.
23:01But it's still hard to say.
23:04I think this is a long, drawn-out campaign by Israel to starve out Gaza.
23:10I think that's what it really wants to do, is to starve out Gaza, to effectively empty the land.
23:18And this is tricky because I think its long-term goal is to kind of string along as long as it can so that it can achieve that final goal.
23:27The best thing that can happen is for the sanctions to continue, the embargo to continue, pressure to continue, and potentially a proper ceasefire.
23:36And I think that's why Qatar keeping its mediator role, despite what's happened to them, is very, very important.
23:43We are coming to the end of the show, but I do want to briefly touch on the role that's been played by the international community.
23:51That's beyond government, but the sort of movements that we're seeing among people, the sort of shift in mainstream thought, the growing and continued support that we're seeing from people rallying and demonstrating on the streets.
24:03It is now coming to almost two years since 7th October, although this, of course, conflict and this issue extends far beyond that.
24:13But I guess what are some of your thoughts on the kind of solidarity that we're seeing that is really hard to come by?
24:21You know, trends move so fast and we move on from one conflict to the other.
24:25I mean, our attention span is just really, you know, messed up, to be honest.
24:31And so to see the kind of momentum that stayed on with the Palestinian people, what are some of your thoughts on that?
24:39I think it's incredible.
24:40The fact that this is, as you said, you know, gained momentum and has stayed consistent for two years is quite important.
24:48I think back to South Africa, you know, the anti-apartheid movement and how consistent that was.
24:54I mean, it was something that everyone knew about, but it was only in the last few years that it really gained momentum.
24:59So we're seeing a very similar pattern happening here.
25:02I think it's not going to die down in any way.
25:05I think it's going to keep going.
25:07And what's really important, I mean, one thing good about the TikTok generation is that they're more aware of what's happening.
25:12They're more exposed to the demonstrations, what's happening in Gaza, you know, so they're definitely more aware of what's happening.
25:20And they feel connected to other people on a, you know, having a similar cause and having a similar fight.
25:28So I wouldn't underestimate the people's movements and its impact on government, governmental policy.
25:36Yeah.
25:37No, thank you so much.
25:38Plenty more we'd like to discuss, of course, but that's all the time that we have today.
25:41We hope to have you to join us again another time.
25:44That is all on Awani Global this week with me, Nala Oda.
25:46We'll catch you another time.
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