- 5 months ago
How will Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship shape Canada's role in the region, and what opportunities lie ahead in trade and the Indo Pacific? Hear from APF Canada’s Jeff Nankivell and Barrett Bingley in an exclusive AWANI Global interview tonight at 9PM.
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00:00Hi, good evening. I'm Amirul Ayman and you're watching Awani Global.
00:11This week, Kuala Lumpur is hosting Canada ASEAN Business Forum 2025,
00:16held alongside the ASEAN Economic Minister's Canada Consultation
00:21and under Malaysia's ASEAN Chairmanship.
00:23Joining me today are Jeff Mangevel,
00:26President and CEO of the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada
00:30and Barrett Bingley, the Foundation's Asia Regional Director.
00:34Gentlemen, thank you for being with us.
00:36Jeff, let's begin with you.
00:38Malaysia is chairing ASEAN this year.
00:40What makes this moment strategically important for Canada's engagement
00:45and how does Malaysia's leadership shape Canada's role on the global stage?
00:50Well, first, Amirul, thank you so much for giving us this opportunity.
00:55So for, I think, both for Canada and for the members of ASEAN,
01:03obviously we are, Canada's a trading country.
01:08It's, you know, the majority of our GDP is related to trade
01:13and we're an open economy and we have relied on a rules-based international trading system
01:19and on, you know, the trading relationships that we have built over a century
01:24and more than a century and a half as a country.
01:26And, you know, this is a feature that is shared by economies in Southeast Asia
01:34who have benefited greatly from a global system that has delivered prosperity and growth
01:41for, you know, millions of people across the region here.
01:44But we find this now fundamentally disrupted by the change of government in the United States,
01:53by new trade policies from the Trump administration.
01:58And so we find ourselves in Canada at a crossroads where we have an urgent need to diversify our trading relationships.
02:07About three quarters of our trade is with the United States.
02:10And this is something that the government of Canada and that the business community in Canada are determined to change
02:21by growing trade in other parts of the world.
02:24And we see a similar appetite coming from ASEAN at a time when ASEAN is also looking for new trading relationships.
02:35And because on both sides we have leaders who believe in the benefits of freer trade and the cause of trade liberalization,
02:45it's a perfect window for us to work together between Canada and ASEAN
02:52and also in the world, in the region and in the world more generally to advocate for the things we believe in.
02:59From EPF Canada's perspective, EPF Canada is expanding its footprint in ASEAN.
03:04Why is it so important for Canada to signal long-term commitment to this region at this particular moment?
03:11Thank you for having us, Admiral. It's great to be in KL today.
03:16And as you know, we've just opened our regional office in Singapore and we have a region-wide mandate.
03:23And why this moment? It certainly lines up with Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy.
03:28But at the same time, I think that it's very much aligned with where ASEAN finds itself right now looking for new partners.
03:37ASEAN is to some degree caught between a U.S. that is re-evaluating its place in the world,
03:44how it interacts with its trade partners and security partners.
03:48And at the same time, you have mainland China, which itself is reacting to challenges from the U.S.
03:54and pushing an enormous amount of goods into the world.
03:58You saw that in the trade stats a couple of days ago.
04:00Southeast Asia is absorbing more and more Chinese exports.
04:04It's putting ASEAN manufacturing under pressure.
04:07And I think that the ASEAN states are going to need to look at other business models,
04:11to grow the GDP, to absorb labour, and that means looking for new partners and new industries.
04:16And I think Canada should be top of that list.
04:19Jeff, let me bring you back to the wider strategy here.
04:22Canada has placed ASEAN at the centre of its Indo-Pacific strategy that you mentioned.
04:26Why ASEAN and what makes this region so pivotal compared to other parts of the Indo-Pacific?
04:31Yeah.
04:32I think from a Canadian perspective, if you look around, we have had very profitable, longstanding trade relationships
04:44with China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, you know, other major economies in the region.
04:53But there's no question where we see the room for growth, it's in Southeast Asia.
04:59This is the part of Asia that traditionally has been least explored by Canadian businesses.
05:07It's understandable.
05:08It's the farthest part of the world from the centre of Canada.
05:14But, you know, the time has come to have a new push to look at the opportunity.
05:21So, I think what Canadians see when they look at Asia, they see the growth of the continued
05:30and accelerating in some places growth of the middle class in Southeast Asia is opening up
05:36new markets for new goods and opportunities for Canadian exporters and providers of goods
05:44and services to be accessing new market opportunities as you have millions of households across the region
05:50every year making purchases of certain types of goods and services for the very first time.
05:56And at the same time, Canada offers an attractive market and potential partnerships for exporters
06:03and investors from Southeast Asia to take advantage of the opportunities that Canada has as, you know,
06:12one of the world's really leading resource economies, as an energy superpower, both conventional and clean energy,
06:22and as a leading player in the technologies of the 21st century, including quantum and AI.
06:29Following up on that, Geoff, you mentioned that Canada has obviously seen potential in ASEAN,
06:34but some might say ASEAN has often seen overlooked or been overlooked.
06:40What more does Canada need to demonstrate it, to show this isn't just a rhetoric?
06:46Yeah.
06:47Yeah.
06:48I think it's a fair question.
06:50I think historically Canada has not been as consistent and coherent in its approach to ASEAN as it needed to be,
07:03but I'm pretty confident.
07:05So we are an independent institution in Canada that works on Canada-Asia engagement.
07:12We're separate from government.
07:13And I think our observation would be that we're seeing a genuinely new level of commitment
07:21from the government of Canada and also from the provincial governments in Canada
07:26who play a very important role the way the Canadian Federation is structured,
07:32and from the business community and from higher education,
07:36that we're seeing unprecedented investments of resources.
07:41The Government of Canada brought forward an Indo-Pacific strategy in November of 2022.
07:48It was launched with new investments.
07:51So on top of whatever else was going on, there were commitments of new investments of about the equivalent,
07:58in U.S. dollar terms, about $2 billion over five years of new investments, including in defense,
08:05including in commercial cooperation.
08:09And Canada's been negotiating free trade agreements.
08:12So we have had just this week in Ottawa the signing of a Canada-Indonesia free trade agreement,
08:18witnessed by President Prabowo and Prime Minister Carney,
08:21and progress is being made on a Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement.
08:25So these are real investments of resources that I think bodes well for the medium to long term.
08:34Well, building on that point, you'll be highlighting Canada's digital and AI-enabled trade report.
08:40Why is this the next frontier in Canada-ASEAN cooperation, and how could it reshape trade relations?
08:47Yes, we're very happy to be showcasing the results of this research, which was done by two of our fellows.
08:55And what it really shows is that Asia as a whole has an incredible growth path right now on digital services.
09:04Asia, taken as a whole, has the fastest digital services growth in the world.
09:10And Southeast Asia is right there, effectively tied with North Asia.
09:16So this is the region to be looking for growth for Canadian firms.
09:20Canada's digital services trade has been growing quite robustly.
09:25But at the same time, Canada's digital services trade with ASEAN is only around 6% of our total.
09:33So it's quite low.
09:34So what we see here is there's a growing market, there is an offering to be made,
09:39but there isn't the connectivity yet, right?
09:42Deals haven't been realized at the level they have with, say, Europe and other places.
09:46And so that's what things like this Canada's Business Council Forum, that we're here as a Knowledge Partner for,
09:51are meant to do, is to showcase the opportunities and hopefully raise those percentages.
09:56Because digital services are, you know, these are high margin, high revenue opportunities, both ways.
10:03And I think it's quite clear that this is one of the paths forward where people see a win-win opportunity.
10:09And you mentioned that there are some barriers.
10:12Can you specifically mention, pinpoint, what are the biggest barriers?
10:16Is it policy or is it infrastructure or perhaps is it trust in digital standards?
10:21So all the things you mentioned are considerations.
10:24There's no doubt about that.
10:26I do think that the biggest challenge is what Jeff mentioned earlier,
10:30which is simply the distance and getting to know each other that could get to your sort of trust point.
10:35But that's kind of a foundational, you need to know people to do business with them first, right?
10:39Now, beyond that, I think we would like to see the Digital Economy Framework Agreement
10:44that ASEAN has been working on for a couple of years now.
10:47We'd like to see that finalized.
10:48We hope that Malaysia can bring that across the line during their chairmanship.
10:52And if they're not able to, I hope that the Philippines in their 2026 chairmanship is able to prioritize that.
10:58At the same time, the ASEAN Canada Free Trade Agreement that is currently being worked on includes important language on this.
11:06We can build on the CPTPP language of which Canada and four ASEAN countries are a party to.
11:13And we have language in the just signed Closure Economic Partnership Agreement with Indonesia that Canada has signed.
11:19So there is a lot of language there to overcome barriers, right?
11:24To sort of harmonize regulatory regimes.
11:28So businesses now need to realize that's all in place.
11:32Now is the time to get on a plane and get to know each other.
11:35All right.
11:36I'd like to bring this conversation to the next level, which is your political side.
11:40Jeff, US-China tensions have been dominating the regional agenda.
11:45Where do you see the middle powers like Canada and also Malaysia carving out meaningful influence despite that rivalry?
11:56Yeah, I think it's a really important moment for the non-superpowers in the world to work together more closely.
12:07And this is something where we find we have a substantial set of shared values around the importance of a rules-based international trading order.
12:21And so I think in practical terms, where there's the greatest need, but happily there's also great potential, is we have, for example, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP agreement.
12:39You know, four of the ASEAN members, including Malaysia, are members.
12:44Canada is a founding member.
12:49And this is probably the highest quality, large-scale trade agreement in recent years that's available.
13:00And so we now have the beginning of talks between the CPTPP and the European Union.
13:09And I think with the UK having joined, having left the European Union, but now has become a member of CPTPP, the first one that is truly outside the region.
13:22And Canada is a Pacific country.
13:25That, I think, shows you the importance and the potential for the Europeans, the players in Southeast Asia, and countries like Canada to work together to build an international trading system that can deliver real benefits,
13:48regardless of whether other powers like, for example, the US, decide not to participate.
13:57So I think it's just, it's really critical at this moment that those players in the international trading system be working together.
14:05And ASEAN is a major player in the international trading system today and a valuable partner for Canada and for the Europeans, for the British, the Australians, New Zealand and others to be advancing these important projects.
14:24Barrett, extending that talk to ASEAN, how can Canada work with ASEAN states to build coalitions that safeguard its regional interests, but rather than letting bigger powers dictating the rules?
14:36Yeah, this is where I think the ideas around mini-laterals and ideas in trade policy around like coalitions of the willing are going to become so important.
14:47And ASEAN and Canada are natural partners on this. Rather than trying to fix the entire WTO or create the idea of the FTAP, which was popular some years ago in APEC, you have to find areas where ASEAN and Canada want to work together,
15:09whether that's digital trade or e-commerce or green transition regulations and aspirations, create working groups, create a path to success, measure that and make sure that implementation is done.
15:25We've certainly been hearing today during the conference that implementation of agreements, usage of agreements can be just as important as getting them signed.
15:34So, first create the structures, but then make sure that you use them and you measure the success.
15:40I want to take you to the investment picture.
15:43EPF Canada has previewed its ASEAN-focused investment monitoring report here in Kuala Lumpur.
15:49What are the most significant trends in Canadian capital flows that you've seen that flows into this region and why do they matter?
15:59So, our investment monitor 2024 reports, the one that we've been previewing, but we've also taken a 10, 20 year look as well at the ASEAN numbers and started to look at the early 2025 numbers.
16:11So, kind of the 10 year picture is really an encouraging one.
16:15There is major investment from ASEAN into Canada and it's really led in a sort of signature piece by the Petronas investment in LNG Canada.
16:25And you'll have seen that Prime Minister Carney on his list of major projects to fast forward, to push forward, has listed LNG Canada too.
16:35I think there's certainly a hope that Petronas re-ups on his partnership with Canada.
16:40Beyond that, you've seen Temasek and Asian Pulp and Paper, Sinormas and other major ASEAN numbers investing in Canada.
16:49So, that's been a really good story.
16:51In terms of Canada into ASEAN, in the last 10 years, it's primarily been a financial services, as well as to some degree, kind of technology and industrial goods and services story.
17:03Financial services are clearly led by groups like Sun Life, Manulife, RBC.
17:07And on the technology side, you've got really solid Canadian companies like Blackberry, their world class cyber security centre set up here in Malaysia.
17:17As well as Celestica, which has major operations in Penang and Johor Bahru.
17:23And given those findings, where do you think opportunities are still being missed?
17:27So, our research shows opportunities are being missed because actually the 2024 numbers are a statistical outlier.
17:34They've, in fact, investment both ways effectively fell off a cliff.
17:37And this is where, you know, we think this is a reaction by business people to the uncertainty that they saw coming and has now been realised in the global trading and investment system.
17:50And so, what that's meant is you probably have some missed opportunities in new industries both ways as companies are holding back, they're holding dry powder.
18:00And that can be everything from healthcare to technology to commodities.
18:04I think there is some work for Southeast Asian countries to do in terms of their regulatory regimes to make Canadian investors, and that's both private sector as well as the pension funds, feel safe in the region.
18:17You've actually seen Canadian pension fund investment, in which, you know, these are really some of Canada's absolutely largest investors globally, has really fallen off in the last two years.
18:27And I think it's because they're seeing other opportunities where they might feel safer are really turning their head.
18:34So, there's work to be done on the ASEAN side, but at the same time there's work to be done on the Canadian side as well to showcase to all the ASEAN investors what the opportunities in Canada are,
18:44and give them a picture going into the 2030s, how they can see, you know, their investments benefiting themselves in their countries.
18:51Like, gentlemen, let's move this into a sensitive but important topic.
18:56Let's talk about the Palestinian recognition. Canada has just recognised Palestine then.
19:01And why was this the right time, Geoff? And how does that decision affect Canada's credibility in the global south and among ASEAN Muslim majority partners?
19:09So, it's an important development for Canadian foreign policy. Prime Minister Karner made the announcement a few days ago.
19:21I think an important feature of this development is that it was a decision that was taken and an announcement that was made in close coordination with several countries that have been close allies of Canada,
19:38like-minded countries internationally on the international stage.
19:43So, this was done in concert with the United Kingdom, France, Australia, and a few others.
19:52So, this was not Canada acting alone, but it should also be said that this was a move that is not without cost for Canada.
20:03Already, Washington has threatened retribution against countries, the countries that took that step.
20:10And it's a very contentious issue domestically in Canada as it is, you know, in many places around the world.
20:19So, it was a pretty bold move by the Kearney government.
20:26I think it has come at this time, in part, it's in reaction to the developments that have been taking place on the ground in Gaza and in the West Bank.
20:41And a feeling among these members of the international community, including, you know, our European allies, that it was important to send a signal about the importance of a two-state solution
20:58and to react to what appears to be an abandonment by the government by the government of the state of Israel, the current government under Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet coalition of rejecting, you know, the possibility of a two-state solution.
21:19I think, I don't think it was done, the decision made by Ottawa, I really don't think, you know, how this would affect Canada's relations with countries in other parts of the world was a major consideration in this.
21:39I think it comes also from just a very genuine place of the reaction that Canadians have had to the situation that we see in that region.
21:52And I guess it remains to be seen, you know, Prime Minister Carney will be travelling to Southeast Asia in a few weeks for the ASEAN leaders' dialogues and will also be at APEC in Korea.
22:06And we'll see, you know, what kind of secondary effects this would have in Canada's relations and standing with players in the region.
22:21As I said, I think it's probably going to come at some cost to Canada's relationship with the United States in the short term.
22:29In the short term, I don't think that's going to be a really long term barrier, but in the short term, there could be some cost to it.
22:36But Jeff, critics say the move came in a bit too late or was too conditional. How do you respond to that?
22:42Well, I think it has to be appreciated that Canada is a country that has been a very strong supporter of Israel, of Israel's right to exist,
22:58that there are very strong people to people ties between Canada and the region in all our communities.
23:08So we have, you know, Canadians of Palestinian origin, Canadians of Israeli origin and the Jewish community in Canada.
23:17So these are, you know, very contentious issues in Canada.
23:24It was, you know, the recognition of the state of Palestine was not something that had to be done.
23:34And it's, you know, it's not clear in the short term what the immediate practical benefit of doing that, you know, will be in the current context that we have.
23:43And so I think, I don't, I think the issue is not so much, you know, why did it take so long?
23:50The issue is, is to look at the significance of the step that has been taken and the signal that it sends.
23:57Okay. I would like to bring this back to Canadian and ASEAN relations.
24:01Barrett, beyond trade and investment, what do you see as the next frontiers for Canada and ASEAN ties?
24:09Yeah. Thank you. I think when you look at what's happened in the past two years, that the frontier is really around defense and security relationships.
24:21Canada has been working with various Southeast Asian states to develop these in an institutional way that simply didn't exist before.
24:32And actually overnight, you've seen not only the signing of the SIPA with Indonesia, but also a defense cooperation agreement, right?
24:41Very important. You've seen Canada working very closely with the Philippines.
24:47Our forces exercising together, Philippines and Indonesia, taking part in annual exercises.
24:55There is really significant discussions happening on the defense technology side and hoping we'll see a lot more of that.
25:02I think Canada can be seen in the region as an excellent option on defense supply chains and niche technologies,
25:10where there's a question as to, you know, if you're going to go with a long-term defense technology supplier, right,
25:17do you want to be working with a country who is involved in, you know, geopolitical games, let's say,
25:25or do you want to be working with a rules-based, stable partner who respects you, right?
25:34And so I think we're really well positioned in terms of defense and security and hopefully we'll see a lot more of those discussions
25:41as well as more institutional frameworks being laid down to support those discussions.
25:46Jeff, I think we have about a minute left to wrap up from a strategic view.
25:50If we were to measure Canada and ASEAN ties five years from now,
25:55what benchmark would you consider that true indicators of success?
26:00I would say, number one, you will see significantly higher numbers in both directions for trade and investment.
26:08Number two, I think you will see, if these efforts are successful,
26:13number two, you will see significant development of the institutional channels of cooperation.
26:21So the trade agreements also, as Barrett mentioned, defense and security arrangements and other forms of institutional cooperation,
26:33dialogues that take place at the ministerial level between governments from Canada and the region.
26:41And number three, I think you'll see the people-to-people ties increasing.
26:47Canada is a very attractive and globally sought-after destination for higher education.
26:55And the Canadian educational institutions, backed by their governments,
27:01are looking to diversify the sources of international students.
27:05And so I think the third aspect that you'll see is on the people side.
27:10You will see a significant increase in the proportion of international students in Canada who are coming from Southeast Asia.
27:19And if we're really successful in our efforts, I think you would see more Canadians coming for study opportunities in Southeast Asia,
27:30including places like Malaysia that has established itself now as an international education hub.
27:36And you'll see institutional cooperation between Canadian universities and colleges and their partner institutions in the region to deliver joint programs.
27:48Gentlemen, thank you both for your time and your insight.
27:50That was Jeff Nankivel, CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada,
27:55and Barrett Bingley, the foundation's Asia Regional Director.
27:58That's all the time we have for tonight's Awani Global.
28:01I'm Amir Rahman, thank you for watching.
28:03Good night.
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