- 8 months ago
Ashok Malik, Partner and Chair of India Practice at The Asia Group, and Lisa Curtis, Director of Indo-Pacific Security at the Centre for a New American Security, weigh in on U.S. strategy, Southeast Asia’s shifting priorities, and the high-stakes rivalry reshaping the region.
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00:00Hello and welcome to Awani Global. I'm your host Fahana Sheh. Now we are at the sideline of the 38th Asia-Pacific Roundtable here at Hilton, Kuala Lumpur.
00:15Right, today we're diving into the role of the United States in a changing Asia. Now at a time of intensifying US-China rivalry, shifting alliances and rising regional agency.
00:27Joining me are Ashok Malik, partner and chair of India Practice at the Asia Group, as well as Lisa Curtis, director of Indo-Pacific Security at the Center for a New American Security.
00:39Thank you so much for joining us. You guys are fresh off the panel so there's a lot to unpack actually.
00:45But let's set the scene first because we are talking about the US's role or its treatment or its engagement in Asia.
00:56And the word here is changing Asia. So it's a new dynamic, a new setting.
01:04So how would you describe the current strategic priorities of Washington in Asia today?
01:09We've seen a lot of tensions, trade tensions, shifting alliances, geopolitical changes.
01:16What are your comments on this? Let's start with you, Lisa.
01:19Well, I think what we heard from the Trump administration was that they wanted to shift more attention to the Indo-Pacific region.
01:29But I think that's proved to be more difficult than expected because of other crises happening throughout the world in the Middle East, Russia, Ukraine.
01:39So that has been one thing that I think we have seen.
01:45But I also think we've seen some signs of continuity from the first Trump administration to the second Trump administration.
01:53We see that there is an interest in engaging with the countries of the region in being present and in nurturing the alliances and partnerships.
02:07Why do I say that? We saw two successful visits by the Japanese Prime Minister, the Indian Prime Minister.
02:15We saw a successful visit of the Defense Secretary to Japan, the Philippines and Guam.
02:22We saw the Secretary of State hold a meeting of the Quad on literally his first day on the job.
02:30So I think those are the signs of continuity.
02:34What are the signs of discontinuity?
02:36Well, certainly the so-called Liberation Day, April 2nd, when sweeping tariffs were announced against both allies and partners,
02:47as well as adversaries of the United States.
02:49And I think this has created a lot of global uncertainty about the United States' intentions,
02:58about what President Trump, you know, is trying to do with the global economy.
03:04And so that has created, I think, a lot of wariness in the region.
03:11And we're still seeing how that plays out.
03:14We're seeing the negotiations continue.
03:17But that has certainly been a source of instability and uncertainty.
03:23Right. So there's ongoing negotiations and ongoing cooperation on one side.
03:29But at the same time, there's also sort of tension simmering a little bit from my analysis of what you just said.
03:36Ashok, if you care to join in, you mentioned changing Trump to an unchanging Asia.
03:43That's what I caught from your segment just now. Do you care to elaborate?
03:49What I was trying to suggest was that we are discussing changing Trump as if Asia were unchanging and Trump were the only one changing.
03:58Actually, Asia is changing and America is also changing.
04:01And certainly President Trump's tariffs and trade war in the first six months of his presidency have completely stunned the markets,
04:11completely stunned countries, have introduced a lot of volatility into the international economy.
04:17And that will continue for a few months, if not the rest of the year, maybe longer.
04:22But having said that, there are longer term trends in America of which the Trump presidency is only a part.
04:30And the longer term trends essentially are a reconsideration of the terms of engagement that the United States has used with the Indo-Pacific or Asia more broadly.
04:45The terms of engagement in regard to its security arrangements with partners and allies as well as its trade arrangements and the dependency which many of our countries have had on the U.S. market.
05:03There is pushback within the American system and this has preceded Trump to be honest, though Trump has probably articulated it much more sharply than others.
05:13There is pushback in the American system against this continuing and there is call for what America believes is a more equitable relationship.
05:23Now, this will call for some collaboration on the part of all of us in Asia, all Asian countries that value the American relationship and value America's presence in this part of the world.
05:35I am not suggesting all of this is justified or valid. Some of it is perhaps an exaggerated idea of the world America can go back to.
05:47The fact is it will call for some collaboration on our part as well, whether it is Malaysia or the ASEAN countries or India.
05:55In terms of security, it will call for more participation, more active, more of an active role, more burden sharing.
06:04And in terms of trade, we aren't going to go back to the pre-tariff era, even if the tariffs somehow stimulise.
06:15Right. I know tariff is a hot topic and we talk about this trade war, we're following it every day.
06:21But if we're looking at longer term here, if we move back a little bit towards Asia-U.S. relations,
06:30I would like to address some of the critics that were brought up during the discussion just now, as well as, you know,
06:35these critics have been around for quite some time. So let's look at the recent Shangri-La dialogue, for example.
06:41We have Pete Hexth comment on China and, you know, quoting, saying, you know, they are somewhat an imminent threat.
06:53And there's renewed concern in Southeast Asia as well over whether the U.S. approach is disconnected from regional priorities, right?
07:01So one interesting analysis or rather critique of this, which I would like, you know, your input on.
07:08The U.S. over militarised its engagement in Southeast Asia, investing heavily in security cooperation,
07:14but undelivering on economic leadership. Is this a fair assessment? And what would it take to rebalance this approach?
07:21And what does the regional state actually want out of this? Maybe Lisa, you can start first.
07:27Yeah, I don't necessarily agree with that proposition that somehow the U.S. has over militarised the region.
07:37I think that, you know, there are real threats that we face. If you look at the kinds of things that China has been doing in the Taiwan Strait,
07:49in terms of its military, you know, operations and exercises and, you know, intimidation of Taiwan, that's very serious.
08:01If you look at the grey zone activities that China has been engaged in in the South China Sea, particularly against the Philippines over the last couple of years, also a very serious situation.
08:13So I think that, you know, we don't do any favors to ourselves if we underestimate some of the real security concerns that are in the region.
08:25Now, that said, I understand that, you know, the Southeast Asian nations don't want to be caught in the middle.
08:33You know, they see tensions rising between the U.S. and China and they feel they're going to bear the brunt of any, you know, crisis or potential conflict.
08:46And that's understandable. But at the same time, you know, the U.S. cannot ignore some of the, you know, more provocative or aggressive activities that China has been engaged in in the last several years.
09:02So I think this is a reality that, you know, we will face.
09:06And I think we're likely to see the Trump administration increase its military posture in the region.
09:14That's what they said they want to do.
09:16That is what's in the budget.
09:18We see there's greater commitment to resourcing, sending, you know, military resources to the region, enhancing our military infrastructure in the region.
09:32So I think that's a reality that we're facing.
09:37Asha, do you have any contribution to this?
09:40You know, the fact is the prosperity of this region and there's been enormous prosperity in the past four or five decades.
09:48And in the ASEAN countries, among the Asian tigers, Malaysia, of course, in China as well.
09:55And for the East to India, in India, much of that has been underpinned by a system incubated and nurtured by American military and diplomatic power.
10:14We need to appreciate that.
10:16If America retrenches from that or walks away even somewhat, it will create a gap that we will all feel.
10:24So nobody wants that.
10:26It's entirely in our interest to incentivize America to stay the course, to stay on.
10:30But that will require shifts on our part as well, simply because, you know, America is in a position to make those demands,
10:37which is why all of us, Malaysia, India, all countries are looking to do some sort of a trade deal with the U.S.
10:45Even when we recognize that the tariffs are perhaps exaggerated. That's a reality.
10:52In terms of the security and military posture of America in the region, gaps will be created because while America has committed to this,
11:03committing resources to military resources in this part of the world, the challenges in this part of the world are also growing.
11:16And there is room for other countries, other partnerships, plurilateral bodies to step in.
11:24Right. Okay. So it stems a little bit out of necessity to a certain extent.
11:29Right. So another comment that we came across now was the pivot to Asia.
11:36So there's been promises of pivot to Asia.
11:39And but I think a lot of critics are saying Southeast Asians still feel like an afterthought when it comes to the broader U.S. strategy,
11:48overshadowed by, you know, conflicts in the East, for example, Europe or domestic politics.
11:53So can Washington really commit to being a long term, consistent presence in the region?
11:59Or does it require that reciprocity that we mentioned just now? Right.
12:04To build this long lasting relations with other countries, as you've seen, you know, as a justification for terrorists, for example.
12:11Maybe Lisa.
12:13Yeah. Well, I think the U.S. is going to remain a strong presence in the region.
12:19That doesn't necessarily mean that President Trump is going to visit the region, you know, often.
12:27So you may not have that, you know, high level engagement that I know Southeast Asian nations really want to have and is very important.
12:40But, you know, that may not be, you know, what we can expect.
12:47But in terms of the, you know, investment and the trade relationships and the people to people ties, that's going to continue.
12:57There's a lot of American businesses here in Southeast Asia.
13:01There's a lot of relationships that have been built over time.
13:05As I just mentioned, you're going to see more military investment in the region and more presence in that respect.
13:14So I don't see it as the U.S. is going to be overall less engaged in the region.
13:22But I think we have to remember that there are going to be other crises, other commitments, and we're seeing that already.
13:30We see what's happening in the Middle East that is, you know, already pulling resources.
13:36The U.S. has sent, you know, aircraft carriers and other, you know, military equipment to the region.
13:44So this is going to be something that will always happen.
13:48I think there's this idea that, you know, we can just focus on the regions of the world that we want to focus on.
13:56But that's not the reality.
13:58The U.S. has to be focused and present where things are happening and where there are crises.
14:04So even though there will be that overall attempt to, you know, focus more attention on Asia, and I think that will happen,
14:18we shouldn't be naive to think that there won't be other areas and regions and issues pulling the U.S.'s attention away from Asia.
14:30It will be a challenge to continue to focus on Asia.
14:34In a way, Asia is a victim of its own success because there's not, you know, a particularly war happening now or a crisis.
14:44But that's just the reality that we face.
14:48I think where Asian countries, and not just Asian countries, but many countries will actually face a stark choice,
14:55is in the domain of technology, especially critical and emerging technology.
15:00Telecom, semiconductors, quantum computing, AI.
15:05In other areas, you can sort of straddle multiple boats, so both boats, the Chinese boat and the American boat,
15:12or the pro-Chinese boat and the pro-American boat.
15:14But in these areas of critical and emerging technologies, countries will be pushed to make a choice.
15:24Many of us might not want to make that choice.
15:27I know ASEAN countries would like to postpone that choice, understandably.
15:30We like to be friends with everyone.
15:32But I'm afraid in the technology domain, that choice is coming.
15:36I mean, India has made its choice, but it's a choice many countries will have to confront and make.
15:41Right.
15:42So I guess that comes to my next question, sort of relating to this choice that we have to make, right?
15:47From, Ashok, from the perspective of a rising power in Asia, India,
15:52how is the region adapting to multipolar order?
15:56So Asia's multipolar adaptation and strategic alignment, for example.
15:59Is U.S. primacy still desirable, or are countries increasingly hedging?
16:05I believe countries are hedging.
16:09As I said, the U.S. is leaving a gap.
16:13That gap may be only a small gap given the quantum of U.S. investment and resourcing,
16:19but it's still a significant gap in sort of absolute terms.
16:23And that gap can't be filled by any one country or one power.
16:28It would not be desirable to have any one country or power fill that gap,
16:32and it's not feasible either.
16:35It will require different regions and different domains and different geographies and different sub-geographies,
16:42different countries to come together.
16:45So in the far sort of east of the Indo-Pacific, India, Australia and New Zealand are coming together to work in the Pacific Islands, for instance.
16:56In Southeast Asia, India is partnering with ASEAN countries, particularly Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam.
17:05You know, Vietnam is like Malaysia, has a great manufacturing economy.
17:11Vietnam now buys iPhone components from not just China, but from India as well.
17:18India buys components from ASEAN countries.
17:22So we are no longer looking at a sort of supply chains that move from one source to the rest of the world.
17:32It's more of a Brownian motion.
17:34And that makes for more stability and more equity in supply chains, as well as for more security.
17:41Because as we found during the COVID crisis and even subsequently, the concentration of supply chains and of sourcing in certain geographies does create logistical and economic crises,
17:57which would be addressed perhaps with greater diversification of supply chains, of manufacturing and of economic arrangements.
18:09Right. I mean, it's definitely something that, especially with this April 2nd, you know, trade tariffs, countries in Asia have to sort of look back and reassess their relationships with not just the US,
18:26but also other countries as well, and look at, you know, how we can move forward and how we can utilize, you know, intra-ASEan trade or, you know, not putting your eggs all in one basket.
18:36True.
18:37So it's definitely timely that we talk about this right now.
18:39We need to do more with each other.
18:40Yeah, definitely.
18:42Right.
18:43So talking about the US in terms of its economic engagement and as well as competition, right, the US has stayed out of trade blocs like RCEP and CPTPP.
18:54But it's also launched IPEF.
18:57So how credible is Washington's economic engagement in the region, especially amid China's growing trade influence if you talk about Belt and Road Initiative, for example?
19:06Lisa.
19:07Well, of course, IPEF, the No Pacific Economic Framework, was an initiative by the previous Biden administration.
19:16I highly doubt that the Trump administration will continue that program.
19:23I think that President Trump will put his own stamp on his economic engagement in the region, and we're already seeing that, and it's called tariffs.
19:35This is the, you know, what we're facing now is, you know, we're going to see the negotiation of bilateral trade deals.
19:45We're already seeing that.
19:47The Malaysian meeting minister was in Washington yesterday negotiating.
19:52Right, yeah.
19:53So I think that's the kind of economic engagement you're going to see from the Trump administration.
19:58It's going to be a lot of bilateral trade agreements.
20:01I don't see the US sort of getting involved in these major multilateral trade agreements.
20:07That kind of US economic engagement in Asia is over.
20:14That is just not something that's supported by either, you know, Democratic or Republican administrations right now.
20:22It's going to be about the bilateral agreements.
20:26Right.
20:27I mean, it's definitely, you know, like you said just now, these tariffs come and a lot of the countries are somewhat confused or sometimes feel attacked by it.
20:38But it might just be a strategy moving forward that we are not so familiar with.
20:45We are familiar with it back in the first Trump administration, but it's coming a lot stronger, a lot more aggressive this time.
20:51And it might be something, a strategy that is a refresh or a reform of the new Trump administration.
20:59Well, I think, you know, I would agree that, you know, April 2nd was over the top, you know, implementing tariffs, you know, from 25 percent to 245 percent.
21:11And then rolling back.
21:12On 60 different nations.
21:13Yeah.
21:14And the markets were roiled.
21:16And I think I think he realized he had made a mistake.
21:20And we saw a sort of course correction.
21:23Right.
21:24And so it's already begin to evolve.
21:27But, you know, the other issue is that of, you know, supply chains.
21:33And particularly when you're talking about semiconductors and, you know, advanced chips and the need for making sure that countries aren't, you know,
21:48transit, not involved in the transshipment of chips coming from China.
21:55And this is an issue that is particularly important, I think, to Malaysia, which exports a lot of chips to the United States.
22:03I think 16 billion worth.
22:05And Malaysia has actually taken steps to make sure that they are only exporting Malaysian origin, you know, chips that originate from Malaysia.
22:17So, you know, these are the kinds of issues that I think we're going to face when it comes to economic relationships in the region,
22:26is, you know, the high technology making sure that, you know, that China is not, you know, circumventing some of the restrictions that the U.S. is placing on high technology to China.
22:48Yeah.
22:49So I guess that's another main thing, right?
22:52When we talk about China, how do you think, you know, Asian countries are perceiving and reacting and recalibrating to this heightened tensions?
23:01And is it, is a non-aligned Asia even possible in this strategic environment?
23:06No, I don't think it is.
23:08And obviously different countries will look at it differently depending on the individual relationship with China.
23:14Asia's relationship with China is very different from India's relationship with China.
23:18India shares a long and contested military border with China, which has been volatile for some years now.
23:26So obviously we will look at it differently from some certain other countries, though, of course, the ASEAN countries should also have disputes with China.
23:35Also, the era of, at least I speak for the Indian vantage position, the era of expansive trade deals which offer easy access to Chinese imports,
23:51especially manufactured goods from China, low-end manufactured goods from China, to a large domestic market and actually end up hurting domestic manufacture.
24:01I think that era is being challenged, not just in the U.S., but in some other countries as well.
24:08So, yes, the U.S. did not sign on to RCEP, but frankly, neither did India.
24:12And some of our concerns were pretty similar, that it would open the floodgates to a lot of imports from China.
24:20It's not that we don't want to trade with China. Of course we do. It's our largest trading partner.
24:24But like other countries, we want to cherry-pick what we buy from China in terms of engagement with China.
24:33A bit more autonomy.
24:35Yeah, especially in low-end manufacture and at the other end of the spectrum in critical emerging technologies, there are concerns about China.
24:49Right.
24:50We only have time for one last question.
24:52Sure.
24:53Actually, just one last word from both of you.
24:56So looking ahead, what should the next phase of U.S. engagement in Asia look like?
25:01If you can sum it in one word.
25:04Quite hard.
25:06Yeah, that's almost impossible.
25:13I would say sovereignty.
25:17Sovereignty.
25:18Okay.
25:19Well, sovereignty is a good word, but I would say diversify.
25:25Diversify.
25:26So we're looking at the next phase of U.S.-Asia relations to have a bit more sovereignty.
25:33So I guess a bit more, how would you say, autonomy?
25:36A bit more?
25:37I'm talking about the sovereignty of the Southeast Asian nations.
25:41Oh, right.
25:42Yeah.
25:43Ensuring they maintain their sovereignty and independence and are able to protect their own waterways.
25:52Sort of decide.
25:53Okay.
25:54Yeah.
25:55And with you, is diversify meaning?
25:57Diversify as in Asian countries which have a certain dependency on the U.S. in terms of market access or trade or security need to fill that gap with other arrangements, with other like-minded countries.
26:11Right.
26:12Not putting your eggs all in one basket.
26:14Right.
26:15I think that pretty much wraps up.
26:16We have a key insight on how U.S.-Asia relations will look like in the next four or five years or so.
26:22We're excited for it.
26:24So thank you so much, Asho and Lisa, for helping us unpack how the region is recalibrating and what Southeast Asia really wants from its partners and where U.S. strategy must evolve.
26:35So we hope today's discussion offered fresh perspective on the region's changing dynamic.
26:39Thank you for watching and bye.
26:41Bye.
26:42Bye.
26:43Bye.
26:44Bye.
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