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Does “G2” diplomacy exist or is it a rhetorical framework? Host, Nailah Huda and panellists, Dr Khoo Ying Hooi and Angeline Tan unpack the recent US-China meeting and what it entails for Southeast Asia.
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00:00You're with me, Nailahuda, and on Awani Global this week, we want to look at recent developments
00:11in US-China relations, particularly following President Trump's meeting with China's Xi Jinping
00:17in South Korea. But apart from trade deals, what did get a lot of attention, particularly in the
00:23media, was President Trump's social media post describing it as a G2 meeting. This of course
00:30made headlines particularly on what a G2 grouping actually entails and how or what the reception
00:37has been like towards this concept. So at this hour today, we want to discuss what this actually
00:43entails and whether this optimism might translate into potentially a de-escalation in trade tensions
00:50and tariff wars and how might governments in Southeast Asia react or read into this.
00:56And to help us unpack, we're joined today by Associate Professor Dr. Ku Ying Hui, Department of International
01:02and Strategic Studies, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University Malaya. And also joining
01:07us, Angeline Tan, analyst at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, ISIS Malaysia,
01:13with a research covering East Asia's international relations with a focus on China. Thank you
01:18so much Ying Hui and Angeline for joining us today on 1E Global. Perhaps I'd like to start
01:24with Dr. Ying Hui, just some of your key takeaways looking at President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping
01:30recently. Yeah, well, if we look at the meeting of the both in South Korea recently, it's quite
01:37clear that both sides were trying to project calm after the years of tensions and everybody was looking
01:43forward to see what they're going to discuss. I think the lighter part was with one being very
01:50chatty and another one was not, that was being captured by the media. And of course, it was very
01:55symbolic, the body language that we see and the rhetoric. And also, of course, the promises of the
02:00everlasting peace was quite significant as well. What does it really mean? But I think beneath the surface,
02:09as I observed, this was more of managing the rivalry between the two than really resolving it. I think
02:17there were some small wins that we see, such as the pause, the new tariffs. But I think the real
02:23structural issues, such as the advanced technology and so forth, remain kind of untouched.
02:31Angeline, your thoughts, some of the key takeaways or highlights from this meeting?
02:35Well, for me, there were no clear breakthroughs. But I think the fact that both of the presidents,
02:41presidency and Trump agreed to meet amidst such tensions in the US-China relationship,
02:48I think shows me a great commitment towards progress. You know, I think Dr. Kuo was saying that
02:54there are still a lot of structural problems, but I think this is a hope for progress almost,
03:00and that there's no desire for further escalations. So for me, it was quite encouraging to see a
03:05thawing of relations. And hopefully, the goal is to keep it in this direction.
03:10I mean, as you said, perhaps no real or solid breakthrough. But if we look specifically at the
03:14trade agreement, do you think that, you know, the sort of optimism, the sort of niceties that
03:20Ying Hui mentioned, is this reflected in the trade agreement? Was there a big win, perhaps, Ying Hui?
03:26Well, to be honest, I think the optimism is more rhetorical than real, as we see. And you could
03:35all almost feel like Trump, as usual, to show his showmanship in it during the meetings, to project
03:43his confidence. But it is not necessarily reflect the reality of the talks, I think, up to today.
03:51And I think it also, but of course, the meeting, it gives the market a bit of the breathing space
03:59that I cannot deny it and send a signal that, you know, at least the both sides are still willing to
04:04talk, which is good in that sense. But the real problems are still there, as I earlier mentioned.
04:11And there was a lot of discussions about the rare earth as well, and so forth. So I will say,
04:17I will agree to Angeline as well, that this, this is not so much of a policy breakthrough,
04:22but the meetup was, and in short, I think it is more like a pause between the rounds,
04:31and with the real competitions quietly continues, as I see.
04:36Of course, you mentioned a little bit about the market reaction, how it gave a little bit of
04:41breathing space. Angeline, I think one thing that, of course, got a lot of reaction
04:46from the markets was President Trump's description of this meeting as a G2
04:52meeting, something that we've not heard of in a while, something that was, you know, sort of
04:57discussed or coined decades ago. But what do you think is behind this? What is the actual story
05:03behind this G2 concept?
05:04I don't think there's much of a story. The concept of it is just that it's the two largest
05:10economies trying to discuss trade related issues amongst themselves, or trade related issues that
05:15interest them. I think it's just come up again, because President Trump just likes the idea of
05:21it, or maybe the saying of it. It's not a term that I personally would use, but essentially,
05:27it's just a fancy way of saying bilateral economic relations between the two largest economies.
05:31Hmm. So do you think it was perhaps an overreaction, what we've seen in the media,
05:37among analysts, especially the sort of reaction that we're seeing? I mean, analysts, or at least
05:42some analysts are saying that it could perhaps stir a little bit of concern or anxieties among other
05:49groupings. Do you think this is, or this has any basis, Angeline?
05:54I wouldn't assume that this would stir anxiety, because I'm not even sure it does exist. For it to exist,
05:59both parties would acknowledge it. And so far, it's really just President Trump that has been
06:04calling it a G2, as you've mentioned. I think what actually stirs anxiety,
06:09it's more the unpredictability of the US-China dynamic rather than the G2 format itself.
06:15So I think we should be very careful about whether or not this G2 actually even exists.
06:21Yinghui, do you agree with this? Do you think that it's the unpredictability still that would remain and
06:27would remain, you know, to be a source of anxieties for a lot of countries?
06:33Well, I would think this is not new. Either Trump used the term of G2 or not. And as I see,
06:41he casually use it. But the tension between the two has been there for a long time
06:46as well. And I personally also do not come and I'm not comfortable to assert the usage of the G2
06:53itself, especially with the current political developments around the world. So I think
07:01although it emerged again, and some media was using the G2 as a term, but I will say that
07:08both sides, as we see, also wanted different things. And on the Trump side, the US side,
07:18they wanted cooperation under certain terms. But I think the China side might see it a bit
07:23different as well as a recognition of parity. So the reviving of these terms can send a different
07:29message as well. That to assert that Washington and Beijing are two indispensable powers in the world
07:39right now. And the rest of the world should adapt to their relationship. And I see that can be a
07:44dangerous precedent to set.
07:47I mean, putting this G2 concept aside, just looking at the bilateral meeting, what came out of it,
07:54some of the trade agreements and, you know, rhetorical or not, but just the rhetoric and the narrative
07:59surrounding it. How do you think, you know, ASEAN member states or governments in Southeast Asia
08:06might read into this, Angeline, just coming out of the 47th ASEAN summit, of course, there's a lot of talk
08:12on how, you know, ASEAN should sort of balance between these power rivalry. How do you think this might
08:20then change the dynamic, if even so?
08:24Well, I don't think that ASEAN is necessarily concerned, because regardless of what does happen
08:30out of these meetings, these talks, G2 if it exists, ASEAN still holds a really indispensable
08:39place in this region. It is important to both China and US respectively, for whatever their
08:45bilateral relationships are. I think it's important that we continue to, as a bloc and
08:52also its individual member states, to meaningfully engage with both sides, both US and China,
08:57regardless of what the outcomes are in the trade talks.
09:01Yinghu, your thoughts on this, do you think anything substantial came out of these bilateral
09:06meetings, these talks that might be a concern or even a factor of influence that could potentially
09:14change the dynamic in Southeast Asia or in ASEAN?
09:18Well, I see now this is where it becomes very relevant for our regions, as you just now highlighted,
09:24that we just concluded the 47th ASEAN summit, that ASEAN has received so much of the world attention
09:31right now. First, we must remember the US-China tension is not new, and Southeast Asia has lived with
09:38that for decades. But what's different now that I see is how both powers are consolidating influence
09:45through a smaller and issue-based alliances. So on the US side, we also see the visit of Trumps to Japan
09:53and later on South Korea, of course. But there's also many lateral initiatives such as the Quad that
09:59we will have yet to see how it is moving to. But on the China side, I think they also double down,
10:07doubling down on its own different network as well. So what we are really witnessing now is, I think,
10:14it's a fragmented form of multilateralism, where both are building their coalition of convenience
10:20around themselves. And for Southeast Asia, I think this means the region has to continue its very
10:28long tradition of non-alignment and hedging. And that is what I see the ASEAN continue to do.
10:35I want to go back to what you said earlier about how, you know, it might be, a lot of it is
10:39rhetorical, but it did somewhat give some breathing space to the markets. Do you think that this can
10:45translate into de-escalation in trade tensions and tariff wars in what we're seeing? And how might the
10:52impact be on Southeast Asia, Ying Hui?
10:55Yeah, well, I see that what the most ASEAN countries are doing now, especially countries
11:01like Malaysia, Indonesia, they don't want to pick sides. Although sometimes you tend to see that media
11:09played out that which side they are on. But I think what they are trying to project is strategic
11:15autonomy, staying open to all sides, but not to be dominated by anyone. So at the same time,
11:22we also increasingly see the region becoming more active in the South-South cooperation,
11:28and by putting themselves as a leader in the Global South cooperation as well, engaging in the
11:33different forums like BRICS, non-alignment movement and so forth in a more active manner compared to
11:41before. So I think it pushes the Southeast Asia to actually diversify its diplomatic approach as well.
11:50Angeline, your thoughts on this, can we expect a slight de-escalation in the tariff wars and
11:55trade tensions? I think the escalation is possible, but it's not really a given. And even if there is
12:01this de-escalation, I think we shouldn't take it for granted. If there's anything that the pandemic
12:07taught us, it's the importance of agility and also resilience. So I think that we should brace
12:14ourselves. And as Dr. Koo was saying, exercise our strategic autonomy, hedge to the best of our
12:21bets and make sure that we engage both meaningfully with both the US and China. Because I do think that
12:27whatever comes out of the conclusions of the trade talks, there will be a determination on both sides to
12:33compete. And it really just depends on how well we navigate that.
12:37I mean, it's not easy, I'm assuming, this act of balancing. And how do you think this might look
12:45like with Philippines as Chair of ASEAN in the next year? You mentioned this need for this long-term
12:52strategy of hedging. Do you think that the alliance might be a little bit, or the alignment might be a
12:59little bit clear with Philippines as Chair of ASEAN next year?
13:03Yeah, well, as we also know that whoever becomes the ASEAN Chair might also shift the approach of ASEAN
13:09itself. So as traditionally, we see Philippines are more inclined towards the US because of the histories
13:17that they have shared. So it will be very interesting to see how Marcos Juniors is going to
13:25navigate around this US versus China's tension. And by taking over Malaysia, which is this year,
13:33arguably, is one of the years that has most of the incidents are actually happening. And it's still
13:40ongoing, and it's going to be dragged until the 2026. And it will be the test for ASEAN to see how
13:48they're going to assert ASEAN centrality where the ASEAN leaders always use. And are they really doing
13:55it in the next year?
13:58Angeline, what do you make of this? How do you think Philippines might do as Chair of ASEAN in terms
14:04of balancing between these great powers?
14:07There is an assumption that the Philippines is going to, you know, act in a way that is maybe
14:17a bit more leaning towards the US. But what I hope is that at the end of the day, as Chair of ASEAN,
14:22a block of now 11 countries, that they represent the interests of the entire region and the block,
14:27and not just their own agenda. So it's hard to say what they would end up doing. But that's my hope,
14:33that is good, ASEAN above all.
14:35Yeah, if I may add, I think it's also very interesting to see how Philippines is going to
14:41navigate with the issues of the South China Sea, where they call it West Philippine Sea as well.
14:47Because I think the South China Sea issue has not been really being raised as much this year,
14:52but I can see that it will be most likely one of the focus next year.
14:57I mean, you mentioned that and I'm not sure if you're, you know, if you've read into the details,
15:02but I believe there was a code of conduct that's been upgraded or somewhat escalated in the last
15:0847th summit. Do you think that makes much difference in the South China Sea and how Philippines might
15:14handle that, Ying Hui?
15:16Yeah. Well, this is a very prolonged issue with the South China Sea and it has never been resolved.
15:22And the code of conduct has been there while they upgraded it. But still, I do not see
15:29how China is not going to assert their so-called claims onto this part of the
15:39areas as well. So I will still see that. And intertwined with this is the trade issues that we see.
15:48So I will see that it will become more complex despite of the code of conduct.
15:51Hmm. Ying Hui, I want to go back a little bit to what you said earlier about, you know,
15:56a potential option to, I guess, broaden their network with other Global South allies,
16:04other frameworks or other multilateral frameworks like BRICS and whatnot. Do you think that this is
16:10still a strategic option given global power rivalry that should sustain or maintain and remain relevant
16:21for the years to come? Do you think that this is still a strategic option for ASEAN?
16:26Yes, I see how the ASEAN and the other countries starting to actually strengthen the global source
16:35corporations out of what happens around the world right now, especially looking at the US and China
16:43tension. And I see that in a positive lens that at least, and hopefully, this can make the negotiations
16:50between all these countries in a more equal manner by forging their own alliances against the major
16:59powers that can be more influential in the world.
17:03If I could chime into that, I think this is the new way to go. I think it is very, very important to
17:12continue on this trend of diversifying our relationships. You know, to add on to BRICS,
17:18as an example, this year, we had the inaugural ASEAN GCC China Summit. And I think that was, you know,
17:24it's all about looking for creative ways of cooperation beyond traditional structures that we're
17:30already used to. It's about looking for new solutions. And while there is a lot of questions
17:37about the China factor in this ASEAN GCC format, I have heard that as well, that there are discussions
17:44of an ASEAN GCC US to kind of balance, to also expand cooperation. So I do think that cooperation
17:53between ASEAN and the Global South is a really, really interesting place to look at.
17:58And I'm hoping that, you know, as we're working within this Indo-Pacific framework, it's not just
18:03what is towards the west of us, but maybe we should also pay more attention into the Pacific islands
18:10to be a bit more inclusive in the Indo-Pacific region.
18:14I mean, ASEAN GCC US framework might be interesting, but if, for example, if we take the example of
18:21Malaysia and Indonesia signalling this slight pivot to BRICS as an alternative, Ying Hui, do you think
18:29that this might, how do you think this might impact the relationship or the fragile relationship
18:36that we have with these great powers, particularly in anticipating a slightly negative reaction from the
18:42US, especially given now that, you know, tariffs are being used as this sort of tool
18:50in trying to get what President Trump wants from Southeast Asian countries?
18:54I think this is especially how and what we witnessed during the 47th ASEAN Summit,
19:00with all the grants welcoming and things like that. And I think ASEAN is trying really hard to actually
19:06navigate around this to show that they are not inclined to any of the power, either towards the
19:14US or China. But of course, we cannot dismiss that if we split the ASEAN into the different member states,
19:22some of the member states have a different approach, and while the others can have a different
19:26approach depending on the foreign policy orientation as well.
19:30I mean, talking about just, you know, relationships with US and China and potentially new alliances or
19:38other strategic frameworks, multilateral frameworks like BRICS and other Global South alliances, there's
19:44also some talk about this need to, I guess, rethink the global or multilateral order and how, you know, states
19:52navigate issues on the international stage. Do you think, I guess this is a more bigger picture question,
19:58but Angeline, do you think that there needs to be a sort of rethink of how member states navigate
20:04these issues and perhaps rethink the Western dominance in the international stage?
20:13I think there should be a rethink, and I think Malaysia actually has been trying to put efforts into,
20:19you know, and energy into this rethink as well, right? The fact that we pushed for the trilateral of
20:23ASEAN GCC China, the fact that we are interested in BRICS, I think we have been, you know,
20:30reaching out our hands and trying to cooperate and engage with as many actors as possible,
20:36and trying new formats as well. So it's not just the thinking stage right now, I do think that Malaysia
20:42is trying to push for the doing stage.
20:46Ying Hu, do you agree? I guess this is a bigger picture question again, but do you think this is
20:51perhaps signalling to something bigger that there's this distrust in multilateralism and multilateral
20:58frameworks internationally? Or do you think it's just a matter of, you know, slightly smaller band-aid solutions
21:06might do? Yeah, well, I think we cannot deny that there's certainly anxieties and fear
21:13coming from this framing of the so-called G2 or US versus China that could actually reduce
21:19multilateralism and bilateralism as we see right now. So when we look at the US and China, when they start
21:27making deals over certain issues, smaller and middle powers such as ASEAN, the worries is being sidelined.
21:35So, for instance, when it comes to the negotiations on trade or technology. So it can leave very little
21:42room for the others to be able to influence the outcome. Hence, then it goes back to nothing of how
21:49they are trying to navigate. So I think this challenge, the whole principle of ASEAN centrality that we see,
21:56but that Southeast Asia might once again become an arena where the great powers compete rather than cooperate.
22:03Because what I see now is it is not new, but it just escalates. And we do not know when it is going to end.
22:10And basically, ASEAN is stuck within this sphere of the two powers trying to spread their influence.
22:19So I think that's why it's important for ASEAN to keep emphasizing multilateral mechanisms as well, and try to
22:28build the different alliances and diversify that.
22:30I think one aspect that we haven't touched on is hypothetically, if we were to consider this sort of G2
22:37framing this, I don't even know, bipolar framework of the world. Angeline, how do you think this might
22:45serve Beijing's own ambition, perhaps to be recognized as this pure global superpower?
22:51Well, first, I wouldn't start with assuming to know what Beijing's ambitions are. But I don't believe
22:57that a G2 framework would serve Beijing's current approach. And they have been wary of adopting this
23:02terminology themselves. You know, Beijing, they've been actively promoting themselves,
23:08positioning themselves as advocates of multilateralism. So adopting a G2 framework, which is essentially,
23:13as you mentioned, a bipolar framework, I don't think it goes against what Beijing claims it stands for,
23:19which is multilateralism. So I'm not sure that this G2 framework would serve their interests,
23:24and I'm not sure this G2 framework would actually be actualized.
23:28We are coming towards the end, but I do just want to get your thoughts quickly on another thing that
23:33also came up during the talks, or at least one of the meetings in South Korea with China. You know,
23:39there's not a lot of mention about internal issues, but China did call for the US to avoid crossing
23:46four sensitive red lines to keep the two countries' relations on track. This was following, of course,
23:53meeting between the two leaders. But these four red lines were, of course, Taiwan, democracy and human
23:58rights, the political path and system, and right to development. Angeline, just some final thoughts. Do you
24:05think that this is of any interest to President Trump, or do you think that he's sort of signaled
24:11that he's staying away from these issues? These four red lines are not new. They're not new to China.
24:18They're not new to this relationship. But I think maybe what is not necessarily new, but fresh maybe,
24:25is China's ability to articulate this even clearer. And my takeaway from the meeting is that not only is this
24:32a commitment towards progress, as I mentioned earlier, but I do see that both sides are gaining
24:37a clearer idea of each other's red lines. And it's just a matter of whether both sides want to comply
24:42and, you know, show the gesture of goodwill to actually keep within the red lines. I think the message is clear.
24:50Yinghui, maybe you have some thoughts on this as well?
24:52Just a very quick one. I think we should not also forget the Gaza crisis as well. They have sent
24:58different signals to the world that, you know, there is a very blurred line between democracy and
25:03human rights nowadays, who is actually championing democracy and who is actually championing human
25:08rights, because it can come from both sides. Hence, it becomes a test for the world really
25:15to look at all these so-called red lines of either from the China side or from the United States side as
25:21well. So I think this will be something that is very interesting for us to see. And of course,
25:28the least that I want to see is the world is being managed by the two and the bipolarity,
25:33as we see during the Cold War. And it has to come from many different powers, big and small,
25:39sharing responsibility for it.
25:42A very interesting point to end on, and perhaps we can save that for another show. Plenty more we can
25:47unpack there for sure. Thank you so much. That's Associate Professor Dr. Ku Ying Hui from
25:52University of Malaya and Angeline Tan from ISIS, Malaysia. Thank you so much for joining us today.
25:58Thank you. That is all on Awani Global this week with me, Nala Huda. We'll catch you another time.
26:17Hi, thank you.
26:26Bye.
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