- 2 days ago
As the war continues to rage, questions remain over whether Iran’s political system and military capabilities can withstand mounting pressure from the United States and Israel. Join Nailah Huda as she speaks with Dr Rowena Razak and Prof Dr Maszlee Malik to unpack what lies ahead for Iran and what the world can expect in the days to come.
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00:07This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda.
00:09The war continues to rage with now Gulf countries facing a dilemma stuck between the United States, Israel and Iran.
00:17In this episode, we want to ask several critical questions.
00:21How long will this war last?
00:23What do the United States and Israel actually want to achieve out of this?
00:27And will Iran's political system survive, especially without the former Supreme Leader?
00:34To unpack some of these key questions we have joining us on this episode of Awani Global,
00:39we have Dr. Rowena Abdul Razak, lecturer in Middle East History,
00:42School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.
00:45We also have joining us Professor Dr. Mazli Malik,
00:48Chairman of the International Institute of Advanced Islamic Studies, IAIS.
00:53Thank you so much to Dr. Rowena and Prof for joining us today.
00:56Maybe I can begin with Prof Mazli, just some of your overall thoughts on what's been happening.
01:01Recent developments between the US, Israel and Iran, what do you make of this?
01:06I think things have been escalated and the exchanges of missiles, exchanges of bombs keep happening in both parts of
01:18the parties.
01:20As we can see, Iran has escalated their attacks, not only on Tel Aviv, but other parts of Israel.
01:29And as if that, they've been preparing themselves for this movement since forever.
01:34And as for Israel and U.S., they're still planning to overthrow what they call this regime,
01:46which they considered as the main objective of the whole thing, the whole war at the moment.
01:54So, what do we expect from it?
01:56It depends on how long can Israel sustain.
02:01As we can see, during the 12 days war, it was Israel who demanded from the United States of America
02:10to interfere, to stop the war.
02:13And I think they never expected that it would be this intense in compared to the previous one.
02:21Rowena, what about you? What are your thoughts on this?
02:25Thank you so much for having me.
02:27Very much agree with Professor.
02:30It's going to be quite difficult for Israel to sustain the war.
02:33Iran has shown that it has quite significant capabilities.
02:37It has shown the extent of its arsenal.
02:40It has also shown that it is able to sustain at least quite a limited war, but significant.
02:48So, it's going to be hard to say how long this will last.
02:52It will be hard to say what's going to happen, whether negotiations are still on the table.
02:57The diplomatic option is still on the table.
02:59The first thing they would need to do is to secure a kind of ceasefire between the U.S., Iran
03:05and Israel.
03:06At the moment, that doesn't seem to be forthcoming.
03:12But I think parallel to all of this is just the overall need to find a kind of solution,
03:20a long-term solution to find peace in that region,
03:24which is going to be very hard because everyone's objectives are quite different.
03:29And what Israel and the U.S. want to achieve in the region,
03:33and they're kind of achieving it now, which is discord between the Gulf states and Iran.
03:38And once they're distracted, then Israel and the U.S. can kind of do what they like.
03:43So, in a way, a prolonged war, a prolonged conflict works in their interests, very much so.
03:52So, we'll have to see.
03:54Before we go into detail about what's next, particularly for Iran, of course,
03:59maybe we can backtrack a little bit into what actually transpired leading to this.
04:04What do you think, Rowena, some of the factors leading to the U.S. and Israel's initial attacks,
04:09and how have they sort of justified it?
04:13I think we need to kind of look even back, even further back.
04:17This is a long-term plan by U.S. and Israel to weaken Iran.
04:23It started really in 2020, back with the killing of the Al-Quds commander,
04:28Qasim Salomeini, when they targeted him and assassinated him back in 2020.
04:33So, this has been a long-term plan to weaken Iran.
04:37So, they've started first by weakening Iran's foreign assets,
04:44and then they went on to attack Iran's allies in the region,
04:49weakening Hezbollah, Hamas, killing Nasrallah, and so on.
04:53And you can see that they've been moving closer and closer to Iran itself.
04:56So, this is part of that long-term strategy to weaken Iran's presence in the region and Iran itself.
05:04And this culminated in the symbolic killing of Khamenei.
05:10So, I think this is how we need to kind of understand it,
05:13that this attack didn't really come out of nowhere.
05:15This is a long-term plan.
05:17This has been on the cards for a long time, and they found a moment to strike.
05:24So, yeah, and I think it's also, you know, tied in with this idea that they want to change the
05:30government in Iran,
05:31which, you know, we'll talk about, I'm sure, later in a bit.
05:34So, but that's what I wanted to say, that this is where it's coming from.
05:38And in the middle of negotiations that they were having originally,
05:42but we just wanted, it just shows how much they're using military force to weaken Iran.
05:48And taking that into account, Prof, what do you make of Iran's response,
05:52particularly in retaliation following the death of their supreme leader, Khamenei?
05:58Let me come back to your question to Ruina.
06:01I think, at the end of the day, whatever happening in the Middle East,
06:05whatever happening to Iran, it's nothing new.
06:09It's all going back to strengthening the, you know, the position or the existential of Israel.
06:19I mean, the Zionist regime itself.
06:22It happened to Iraq.
06:23It happened to Syria.
06:24It happened to any of surrounding countries bordering Israel or, you know,
06:30it's either they're taking them as their allies or they're weakening them country by country.
06:36So, I mean, by the pretext of disarming nuclear program and bringing down the regime and whatnot,
06:46I think the modus operandi is still the same.
06:49They want to make sure that no strong Arab or Muslim countries surrounding them
06:55that can impose threats to the very existence of the state that they call Israel.
07:04And coming back to your question, looking at their response by Iran,
07:09it is not, I mean, it is not unexpected from Iran.
07:15I mean, what we have seen during the 12 Days War was only a prelude to what's happening now.
07:22But at the end of the day, when you're talking about, you know, toppling a regime
07:26or bringing down a government, I mean, America did that to Iraq.
07:33America did that to Libya.
07:35They did that to Afghanistan.
07:36But I don't think that would work in Iran because at the end of the day,
07:40it's not only the airstrikes that count.
07:43The land troops, I mean, the land war is the major things that would happen.
07:49One thing about other countries compared to Iran, Iran is not based on certain individuals.
07:57Iran is not based on certain, let's say, group of people.
08:05It's based on a system that was well-grounded amongst the people.
08:09Yes, I would say that the people of Iran, not all of them are agreed with the regime.
08:14Not all of them are agreed with the clerics or whatnot.
08:18But when it comes to the state of war, they've been united.
08:25And, you know, the long history of the Persian people, war is only part of their life
08:31and they're well-prepared for the sake of their existence.
08:36So what we have seen these days, the missiles, like I mentioned earlier,
08:42yes, they are going to running out of all those missiles or all those rockets.
08:50But can Israel sustain until that days arrive?
08:55I think you pointed out something very important there, that, you know, Iran in itself is not a monolith,
09:00that it contains these multitudes, much like any other country.
09:03I think, Karina, it's interesting to see the sort of different reactions to what's been happening,
09:09particularly with the death of the Supreme Leader, Harmony.
09:12You see some celebrating others' mourning and grieving for his loss.
09:17What do you think this says about Iran?
09:20I mean, you know, it's, I think, easy to sort of label a certain group as pro-regime
09:25and another label as pro-war, perhaps.
09:29You know, there's this sort of debate that's been going on within Iranian social media.
09:34What do you make of this, Rowena?
09:37It's good.
09:38It's very interesting.
09:40And as you said, you know, no population is a monolith.
09:44Everyone has different opinions.
09:45Everyone has had different experiences.
09:48And the thing is, as Professor said, the Iranian system is quite resilient and very well grounded.
09:54So from there, that's why we can understand why, you know,
09:57the removal of Khamenei has kind of, has not resulted in a collapse of the system.
10:03The system is still very much quite resilient.
10:06And the various, you know, reactions to his death, it's very, it's complex.
10:11You know, Khamenei has been in power in Iran since 1989.
10:14That's a very long time to be in power.
10:17And under his watch, you know, you've seen quite a lot of things happen in Iran.
10:21We had to see Iran stabilize itself after the Iran-Iraq war.
10:26And under his watch, you see the, you know, stabilization of the country,
10:30the economy kind of coming back on track.
10:31We saw the opening of the country in many ways.
10:34So there are people who, you know, who benefited from his leadership.
10:39And at the same time, you know, Iran is, the Iranian government is known to crack down on opposition
10:46and protests to its leadership quite strongly.
10:51Things like the Women Live Freedom, well, Women Live Freedom Movement in 2022,
10:55but even before that with the Green Movement in 2009,
10:58when Mir Hussain Mousavi won the election, didn't win the elections.
11:03And there were calls that the elections were rigged.
11:06And there was huge protests in 2009, which were brutally, which was brutally suppressed by the government
11:12at the time under Khamenei.
11:14People still have memories of that.
11:16And I think this is probably why we see the celebrations on the street,
11:20because people did have, you know, did suffer under those suppressions.
11:27So this is one of the reasons why we saw that.
11:30But at the same time, of course, we saw the mourners, you know,
11:33the people who had, who have, who bought into the system, who benefited from his rule.
11:39And at the same time, it's complex.
11:40And then there are people who are kind of in between, who had, you know,
11:44who led sort of ordinary lives, but still want to see their country change.
11:48They may not necessarily want an entire overhaul of the system,
11:51but they maybe want, you know, more moderation and so on.
11:54Then you have sort of more the extreme Iranians, especially those in the diaspora,
12:00especially those who live abroad, who left Iran, especially after 1979,
12:05who are very much aligned with the royalists, for example.
12:09And they're kind of of this logic that the US and Israel should attack Iran
12:13because it will result in the collapse of the system.
12:18This is obviously quite unrealistic.
12:20And these are Iranians who have not lived in the country for a long time
12:23and don't really have a grasp of what Iranians want, you know.
12:26And most Iranians, you know, they want to live ordinary lives.
12:31They want to be in control of the change.
12:34They don't want necessarily change that's imposed on them by foreign powers like the US and Israel.
12:39So, yeah, it's a varied response and there are reasons behind this.
12:44Just quickly, Rowena, you were talking about this, you know, group,
12:47perhaps minority group of Iranians overseas,
12:51where they have this sort of idealistic, optimistic view of the war
12:54in that it might potentially create this sort of room for change, for democracy.
13:00You know, talking about that and sort of perspective that exists within this group as well,
13:06that Iran is not like, you know, other Gulf or other Middle Eastern countries
13:11that we've seen under Western intervention,
13:14that they're not just another Iraq, they're not just another Afghanistan.
13:17This is, of course, a minority perspective, but what do you make of this?
13:21Do you think that Iran is an exception in the region
13:25or do you think that it could very easily fall into this trap of Western intervention
13:30and long-term protracted crisis?
13:34It's a very good question.
13:36Iran has a long history of, you know, foreign intervention and influence at varying degrees.
13:41It's always been very proud of the fact that it was never colonized
13:46and that, you know, it had this kind of independence,
13:48especially if you think about the other Arab countries that were either under the Ottoman Empire
13:53and then later on became French or British mandates after World War I.
13:58So, you know, historically, Iran has always had this belief, you know,
14:00it's always had this, not necessarily belief, but this self-belief that, you know,
14:05they've always been independent and strong.
14:07And although to varying degrees, especially with Iranian oil,
14:11which was at some point in its history very much a British asset.
14:15So we know that, and under the Shah, under Shah, Muhammad Reza Shah,
14:21there was a very close alignment with the US.
14:23So we know that foreign intervention and foreign influence in Iran's history has been fairly strong.
14:31But I think there is, you know, within Iran, no appetite for this.
14:35They don't necessarily want someone else to come and give the change that they want.
14:39Only they will know what change they need, and they can exercise the change that they need in their own
14:44way.
14:44But those in the diaspora, they have this very strange logic that foreign intervention is what is needed
14:52because everything else from their perspective hasn't worked.
14:55Protests, demonstrations, and so on.
14:57But I think change takes time.
14:59So those in the diaspora are rather impatient.
15:02They see what happened in Venezuela, you know, with the removal of the president,
15:05and they think, oh, it's going to be the same in Iran.
15:08They saw what happened in Iraq with the removal of Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi in Libya,
15:13and they think, oh, it's going to be the same.
15:14Well, we all know that in those examples, it was catastrophic.
15:19And the change came at a huge price, and it was very destructive.
15:23So it's not terribly realistic, but it's certainly the narrative that they want to push for.
15:31Prof, earlier you were saying how, you know, Iran's political system is not based on just one person
15:36or a specific group of people.
15:38Based on this, then, what do you think we can expect for Iran's sort of leadership transition after this?
15:44I mean, they already have their own way in dealing with the situation.
15:51And if you notice, just a couple of hours ago, a new Supreme Leader had been elected, the Mujtaba Khamni
16:00'i.
16:01And whatever transition of the leadership actually has been enacted well in their constitution,
16:08and they're following it.
16:09And coming back to what Ruina mentioned earlier, the foreign intervention,
16:15I think, yes, you're right, Ruina, saying that what brought the current regime
16:21as a result of the Islamic Revolution was the people uprising against foreign intervention.
16:28It's not only against Shah Palavi.
16:30I mean, Gharab Zadegi, as they call it, that led towards the uprising of the people for them.
16:39Foreign intervention or westernization or Gharab Zadegi, that they said,
16:45has brought plague, has brought destructions and kind of colonization on the people of Iran.
16:55And one thing about Iranian people, the Persian pride,
16:58when we look at the political situation,
17:01one thing that we should put on the back of our head is the Persian pride.
17:05But Ruina pointed a very salient point, saying that for the Iranian people,
17:10with that Persian pride, they cannot, they will not accept foreigners to come and invade them,
17:17foreigners to come and dictate them.
17:19And what more?
17:20Those foreigners are the Americans and the Israelis.
17:26And for that, what happened today has pushed the Iranian people within Iran to be united more than before.
17:38I mean, yes, they always wanted change,
17:42but it's a matter of changing between the moderates,
17:48some call them as the reformists,
17:52and the conservatives or the muhafazim,
17:57the clerics.
18:00But at the end of the day,
18:02they never would allow things that happen in Iran,
18:05things that happen in Libya,
18:07things that happen in Syria and other places to happen in Iran.
18:11And, you know, one thing, like I mentioned earlier,
18:14when we look at Iran,
18:15we need to understand the long history of the Persian people,
18:18of the Pharisee people.
18:20I mean, they are people of resilience.
18:24And they, for them,
18:26wars and battles,
18:27it is part of their history
18:29in compared to the other part of the region
18:34and what more compared to Israel and South America.
18:39I want to move beyond Iran
18:41and look at some of the more immediate impact
18:44on other countries,
18:45particularly in the region,
18:46in the Gulf.
18:47Ruina, what do you...
18:48Nala, you just...
18:49Sorry to cut you off.
18:51Please, yes.
18:53One thing, when we talk about Iran,
18:55yes, Ruina was right
18:56when she pointed out
18:58at the Iranian diaspora,
19:01there has been detached from the situation in Iran
19:03and they always thought that
19:05they wanted to bring the situation abroad
19:07back to Iran,
19:09which actually is quite impossible.
19:14And, you know, the situation in Iran,
19:16unlike what we always thought,
19:18I mean, what we thought about Iran,
19:20everyone, all women,
19:22was forced to wear Shador
19:23and everything was very rigid or not.
19:26Actually, that's not the reality in Iran.
19:29If you have been to Iran,
19:31and I suppose Ruina has been to Iran
19:36for a certain period of time,
19:39whether you're visiting
19:41or you're doing research or not,
19:44you will realize that
19:45whatever has been reported by the Western media
19:47actually is not what's happening on the ground in Iran.
19:50In Iran, you would find
19:52whatever you say about those liberal,
19:55the young people and open-minded people,
19:59they do exist.
20:00And I did enjoy attending some of their concerts,
20:05some of their things that unfortunately
20:07have never been reported by the Western media.
20:11Definitely, they wouldn't invite
20:12all these Western pop stars to come to Iran.
20:16But I still remember when Paulo Coelho,
20:19the author of the book Alchemist and other books,
20:22he was invited to Iran
20:24to launch his Persian translated alchemist
20:30in Tehran.
20:32So he was crying to learn that,
20:36I mean, Iran was among the first countries
20:39to translate his book
20:42into other than Portuguese language.
20:44So, you know, talking about music in Iran
20:47and, sorry, talking about the life in Iran,
20:50yes, we cannot compare it with the life
20:53in other Western countries.
20:56But to say that they've been oppressed severely,
21:02I think we need to really revisit that.
21:07I mean, at least what I've seen in Iran
21:11and what I've gone through during my, you know,
21:16brief sojourn there a couple of times, yeah.
21:19Yeah.
21:20I mean, I guess not as massively reported
21:22or skewed in Western media,
21:24but of course there is, to some extent,
21:27you know, oppression regardless.
21:29But I think we don't have much time.
21:32I think, Rowena, what's also important
21:34is for us to look at the sort of timeline,
21:36if there is any to this war.
21:38Do you think that this will go on for much longer,
21:40given what we've seen from the US, Israel and Iran?
21:43As you said, there's still a lot of resilience
21:46on the Iranian side.
21:47There's still a lot of, you know,
21:48this massive arsenal that they've been trying to flex
21:51in the past few days.
21:52How long do you think this war will last, Rowena?
21:56Thank you for the question.
21:59With regards to, you know,
22:01I think we have to sort of understand it
22:02within the context of Iran's reaction,
22:04especially by attacking the Gulf states.
22:07These are, you know, this has been quite unusual.
22:10This is quite an unusual move
22:11because when we think about last year,
22:12they only attacked the US base in Qatar.
22:14And now they've actually started to attack
22:16all, most of the Gulf countries
22:18and not just US military assets,
22:21but now also civilian targets,
22:23airports, residents, and so on.
22:26And also Qatar's oil and natural gas
22:31resources and infrastructures.
22:32And Qatar released a statement
22:35that it has not been in touch with Iran.
22:38So we can see tensions are quite high.
22:41Iran didn't have many allies in the Gulf,
22:43but now it's only very few allies
22:45are also starting to become quite impatient
22:48with Iran's reaction.
22:50It's, it takes, you know,
22:51it's a, it's a lot for Qatar
22:53to take these missiles on,
22:55to intercept these missiles.
22:56It doesn't look good for the country.
22:58For UAE, for example,
22:59they're very worried that this shows
23:01that it's no longer the stable region
23:03that it wants to be.
23:04So it's really,
23:05Iran is testing the Gulf's patience.
23:08So far, they're not going to retaliate directly.
23:11They are letting the US retaliate on their behalf.
23:14So one hopes that this,
23:17because the Gulf is not going to retaliate,
23:20then it won't go on for much longer.
23:23It's just going to be Iran
23:24and the US kind of exhausting themselves.
23:26There's only so much they can do after this.
23:29Besides a grand invasion of Iran,
23:31which is very unlikely.
23:33And similarly with Iran,
23:34you know, they've exhausted
23:35most of their options.
23:36They're now closing the Strait of Hormuz.
23:38They're showing that their system
23:39is going to go on,
23:40that the government hasn't collapsed.
23:42You know, they've already attacked
23:43all their Gulf neighbors.
23:44So in a way,
23:46the only other option
23:47is to either continue
23:48in this kind of stalemate
23:49where they just keep exchanging missiles
23:51or actually go back
23:52to the negotiating table.
23:54It's very hard to put a timeline,
23:55but we could be looking at a few weeks.
23:57And this is what Trump has said
23:59that it's going to take.
24:00It's going to take a few weeks.
24:01But let's see,
24:02once Iran has settled its leadership,
24:04I think it will go back
24:05to thinking of its long-term strategy.
24:07Let it get it out of its system.
24:09And then let's think about long-term planning.
24:12Go back to the negotiating table
24:14is the most likely option,
24:15I would say.
24:16Just very briefly, Rowena,
24:18for the Gulf countries,
24:19do you think their hands
24:20will be forced to react
24:22or will they just completely rely
24:24on the United States
24:25to act on their behalf?
24:27This is the big question.
24:29And I think they're currently discussing
24:30the options for that.
24:32Retaliating is not off the cards.
24:34I mean, they might very well
24:35do something directly.
24:38Qatar has said that,
24:39you know,
24:40it can do this.
24:43It can be on the defense
24:44and intercept the missiles
24:46without retaliating.
24:47But they've also indicated
24:48that they'll have to do something
24:50because they can't just be attacked
24:53without any kind of proper reaction.
24:55They also need to show their people
24:57that they are able to stand for themselves
24:59without relying on U.S. health.
25:03Right.
25:03Of course, thank you so much.
25:05That was Dr. Rowena Abdu-Raza
25:06and Professor Dr. Mazli Malik.
25:08Thank you so much, Rowena
25:09and Prof for joining us.
25:11Thank you for having us.
25:14That was Dr. Rowena
25:15from SOAS University of London
25:17and of course,
25:17Professor Dr. Mazli Malik
25:19from the International Institute
25:20of Advanced Islamic Studies.
25:21Thank you for joining us
25:22on Awani Global
25:23to share some thoughts
25:25on recent developments
25:26between the U.S.,
25:27Israel and Iran.
25:28Of course,
25:29many more developments
25:30we can expect
25:30in the coming days,
25:31perhaps even weeks.
25:33So continue to stick with us
25:35on Astro Awani
25:36as we bring you
25:37the latest developments.
25:38That is all.
25:39With me,
25:40Nala Hudau
25:40on Awani Global,
25:41we'll catch you next time.
25:48We'll see you next time.
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