- 10 months ago
Join our analysts, Tariq Kenney-Shawa from the Palestinian think-tank Al-Shabaka and Rowena Razak, historical consultant, as they unpack the shift in sentiment on Gaza and Israel’s recent attacks on Tehran.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00This is Awani Global with me, Naila Huda.
00:09For over a year and a half, Gaza has endured one of the deadliest military campaigns in modern history
00:14while the world has simply watched.
00:17Just this week, Israel launched fresh strikes against Tehran
00:20with the US stating that Israel acted alone, taking unilateral action against Iran.
00:26But leading up to this, in recent weeks, there has also been a slight shift in tone
00:30with some Western leaders who once stood firmly by Israel now openly using terms like
00:35disproportionate and morally unjustifiable.
00:39Tonight, we're joined by experts to make sense of these new attacks
00:43and how it plays into the war or the genocide in Gaza.
00:47We have Tariq Kenny Shawah, a US policy fellow at Al-Shabaka,
00:51the Palestinian think tank and policy network,
00:53and also with us, Rina Raza, historical consultant with a doctorate from the University of Oxford.
00:59Thank you so much, Tariq and Rina, for joining us. How are you?
01:01Thank you for having us.
01:03Thanks for having us.
01:05Tariq, I think I'd like to start with you.
01:08Just, I guess, your initial reaction to what we're seeing on the news
01:11with Israel's new attacks on Tehran.
01:14What do you make of this?
01:16I mean, I think it's shocking and unjustifiable, but it comes as no surprise.
01:20I mean, I think if you look at what Israel has been doing for the past almost two years now,
01:27has been acting with complete disregard for international law
01:30and with a complete blank check from the United States.
01:34And I think we need to approach it that way when viewing their ongoing attack on Iran,
01:39is that Israel truly believes that they can get away with anything,
01:43whether it's genocide in Gaza or blatant war crimes in Iran,
01:48and their strikes against Iran, which have already targeted civilian apartment buildings.
01:54And I'm seeing reports that children have already been killed and injured.
01:59So I think it's really, it's part and parcel of Israel's strategy right now
02:04and the fact that they truly believe that no one in this world is going to stop them.
02:10And Rowena, your initial reactions, I believe in another interview,
02:14you were just talking about possible scenarios playing out.
02:17And now that this has happened, what are your thoughts?
02:23To echo what Tariq has said, I think this is another example of Israel's
02:30sort of blatant disregard of international norms and so on.
02:35This is definitely a new chapter in the growing tensions between Iran and Israel
02:41that's been happening even since October 7th.
02:44We've seen Israel targeting Iran before.
02:47This is not the first time.
02:48Of course, this is a much larger scale.
02:51And also Israel's targeting of Iran's assets in the Middle East,
02:58targeting Hezbollah leaders and so on.
03:00And so this is just part of Israel's ongoing campaign against Iran.
03:04I think this is also very much linked to the war in Gaza.
03:08The war in Gaza is not going well for Israel.
03:11They can no longer justify international action in Gaza,
03:15but they feel that they can justify a war against Iran.
03:19So I think it's a way to distract with what's happening in Gaza
03:23and a way for Israel to perpetuate and justify its actions against Palestinians.
03:33Rowena, do you think there were any warning signs leading up to this attack?
03:37Then how do you think, how long do you think this is going to play out?
03:42It's hard to say.
03:42We're going to see what Iran and how Iran retaliates.
03:45And I really do believe it will.
03:47I don't think it can.
03:48Iran does have this tendency to play things down.
03:51This is what it did before.
03:53It played down Israel's previous attacks as a way to kind of diffuse the situation.
03:57But to the kind of scale that it is that we're seeing now,
04:00what we're seeing on Twitter, apartment buildings, civilians being killed and so on.
04:04So Iran is in a, will have to be in a position to retaliate.
04:08So it all depends on that, whether they attack Israel directly
04:12or if they target US assets in the Persian Gulf.
04:16It's all, everything's on the table at the moment.
04:18And there were warning signs.
04:22The US and European leaders had already sort of mentioned that a war, an Israeli attack was
04:27incoming.
04:28And the fact that the US was already preparing for its personnel to leave, like places in Iraq.
04:35So we could see that something was happening.
04:38Yeah.
04:38Warning signs were there.
04:39Tariq, if we were to look at the US's response to this, as you said, Israel believes that they
04:46can get away with anything.
04:47But how sure are you of it this time?
04:51Because we're seeing the statements coming out from the US with the Secretary of State
04:54saying that Israel taking unilateral action against Iran, that the US is not involved.
05:00How big of a statement do you think this is?
05:02And do you think Israel can get away with this?
05:05Yeah, I think it's impossible to say that Israel is acting entirely on its own here.
05:10I think Israel is almost entirely dependent on US military support when it comes to the
05:16endless shipments they've received for decades now.
05:21Everything from those weapons shipments to intelligence coordination, to coordinating the
05:27flight tracking of jets over the region, which all of this has to be conducted in coordination
05:36with the United States, which has allies and bases multiple between Israel and the strike
05:44sites in Iran.
05:44So I think that it's obvious that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has distanced the US from
05:53Israel's attack on its face, likely because they want to, you know, try to engage in some
05:58plausible deniability.
06:00But there's no doubt that Israel is coordinating with directly with the United States.
06:05And the question is whether the United States will then shoulder the burden of defending Israel
06:10from Iran's arguably inevitable response over the coming hours, days and weeks.
06:17And as we've seen in the past, it's not only the US that shoulders that burden of defending
06:22Israel from Iran's inevitable missile strikes, it's also countries like Jordan that also
06:28participated in quite literally shooting down Iranian missiles out of the sky in defense of
06:33Israel.
06:34So what Israel is also really doing here is goading the US and its regional allies into a response
06:43that they might not be able to avoid.
06:47And what that means is this is inevitably going to draw the region into a conflagration that
06:55we don't know how it will end and will likely get a lot worse before it gets better.
07:02Just on that note of talking about Israel's increasing dependence, reliance on the US and
07:09their support, we are also seeing a little bit of a shift, or at least that's what everyone
07:14is talking about, how the tide is turning, how there's a shift in perception, in sentiment.
07:21We're seeing this change of tone in some governments, some Western governments, with earlier in the
07:28week, five countries, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, the United Kingdom sanctioning
07:32two of Netanyahu's government ministers.
07:36Because Rowena, with this attack now on Iran, how do you think this plays into some of the
07:44responses that we might be able to predict coming out from these governments?
07:51Just to sort of address the first thing you've mentioned, yeah, there has been a shift.
07:56Although I should say that when we think about the West, not really a monolith.
08:00I mean, we have countries like Spain, Ireland, for example, who've been very consistent in their
08:05condemnation of Israel, even before the recent shift, let's say.
08:10And that shift is, I think, I know some people have been trying to downplay that shift.
08:15And there is, on one hand, they'll condemn Israel, they're using much stronger language,
08:21but at the same time, there's still a lot of aid, military aid that's still going to Israel.
08:27You know, they haven't quite stopped the sale of arms to Israel.
08:32So it's, the rhetoric is mixed, you know, the reaction to it is mixed.
08:35So they're still very aware that Western governments, a lot of them, are still backing Israel in some
08:40way, even though the rhetoric has changed.
08:44We're going to have to see how things pan out in the next couple of hours, especially now.
08:50The reports that we are seeing have not been, have mainly been on Twitter, Iranian Telegram, and so on.
08:58So everything's still on the ground.
08:59It hasn't been verified by Western media just yet.
09:02So I think it really depends on how, when the news becomes, let's say, official.
09:07I think since there hasn't been much backing from the US and European governments on this
09:16move against Iran, even if it was coordinated, I think we're going to see some anti-Israel
09:22rhetoric, at least, of condemnation and so on.
09:25But whether they're secretly not too displeased with Israel's attacks on Iran, we'll never know
09:32for sure, but perhaps some rhetoric against it.
09:34Tariq, I believe in another discussion you had, I think sometime last month, talking about
09:40how the tide may or may not be turning on Gaza, I think you were a bit doubtful about this
09:46shift in tone and how that might translate into real change, real action.
09:51Your thoughts on this, do you think there's much change happening in the shift in tone?
09:57I think, unfortunately, a lot of the shift in tone has been performative.
10:01And I think a lot of it is due to what I would call the Trump effect and the fact that the
10:06genocide in Gaza is now being carried out in a way that's a lot more explicit and unapologetic
10:12than it was, at least under Biden, who during his tenure made sure to at least create a facade
10:19of concern for human rights and the humanitarian situation by providing a minuscule trickle of
10:26aid, of course, while the bombs kept falling and the ethnic cleansing kept rolling.
10:33And I think it's also, so I think with that in mind, the fact that Israel's actions in Gaza
10:38have become so much more open and unapologetic in their brutality has, I think, triggered this
10:48shift in rhetoric that we are seeing from some countries.
10:51And I think it's also important to think about what, for example, Bezal El Smotrich, Israel's
10:57finance minister, said that Israel is, quote unquote, disassembling Gaza and leaving it
11:02as piles of rubble with total destruction and the world isn't stopping us.
11:07So I think the shift that we are seeing is in response to that and the fact that now under
11:14the Trump administration, it's masks off, right?
11:17And I think that that has triggered people in a way that, you know, the other 18, 19 months
11:24of genocide hasn't when it was kind of behind that facade of human rights and international
11:31norms that Biden presented.
11:33And whether this is actually translating into anything tangible or meaningful, I think the
11:39the answer is in, you know, in the news, if you look at Gaza just today, dozens of people
11:46were killed trying to get aid at the Gaza, quote unquote, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
11:51And, you know, despite the fact that the UK, Australia, Norway, Canada, New Zealand, I believe,
11:58all put sanctions on some of the most extreme elements of Israel's government, that has no impact
12:05on Israel's operations in Gaza.
12:07And for this shift in recognition of the brutality of Israel's genocide in Gaza to have an effect,
12:14we're going to have to see a lot more punitive measures when it comes to sanctions, when it
12:19comes to cutting Israel off from basically the endless flow of weapons it's receiving, mostly
12:24from the U.S., but also from Germany, Italy, different countries like that.
12:29Yeah, Rowena, are you also just as cautious, doubtful about this so-called shift in tone
12:38about the tide turning?
12:40And what do you think a genuine or more tangible political reckoning would look like?
12:47I think Jarek has summarized it really well.
12:51Well, sort of, there is, I mean, it is, I think there is some significance to it, because
12:55at least now, outwardly, at least the Western governments are quite vocal, you do see some
13:00shifts.
13:01Tariq is right, those kind of, those targeted sanctions are, doesn't really have an effect
13:07on what's happening on the ground in Gaza.
13:09Israel will continue its genocide in the way that it's been doing, but at least on some level,
13:14it does show the Western public, at least, that their government is changing its tone slightly.
13:19Ultimately, you know, but, but, you know, what we are, what I am noticing is the mainstream,
13:27mainstream thought, especially in the UK, where I, where I currently am, you do see change
13:33in public mainstream opinion, you know, people like former footballers, former national footballers,
13:38you know, actually, you know, making a stand.
13:41People like Jeremy Clarkson, who was, you know, Top Gear guy, is actually now starting to
13:46talk about Gaza.
13:47You know, so you're having, you know, that shift, which is quite important.
13:52And I think it makes sort of the Gaza issue, not just a niche issue or a Muslim issue, but
13:59actually sort of everyone's issue.
14:01And that's been interesting, I think.
14:03So, you know, and that's important.
14:05I mean, regardless of what the government's saying, it's fine.
14:09But what public figures are saying, you know, people like your comedians, you know, everyone's
14:13saying something and you do see an isolation of celebrities who have been quiet on the
14:18issue, you know, and that's been an interesting shift, I think.
14:21What a real genuine political reckoning would look like, that's, as Tarek said, it needs to
14:28be much stronger, you know, stopping the sending of bombs and arms, really isolating Israel, you
14:36know, properly in the sense of, and not just rhetorically, but in terms of aid, financial
14:42aid, cutting off things like, I don't know, the Israeli lobby in Washington and all of
14:47these things.
14:47But that's going to be very difficult to do and to undo because those pillars are just
14:52simply too strong and too embedded in Western thinking and policymaking.
14:58I think that point on the shift in mainstream thought and public opinion is really interesting
15:05and really important as well, apart from just looking at how governments have been responding.
15:09And, Rowena, very interesting how you said about this crossing beyond just racial, religious
15:17lines, and it's really beyond that.
15:19And I think that's important for the Malaysian audience to understand as well, where it's
15:23more framed as a religious issue at times in mainstream media here.
15:30Tarek, I'm interested to hear what it's like in the US and if there's, I think there has
15:34been quite a shift in public opinion as well in how people are just talking about it.
15:38You know, with the mask off now, it's in mainstream media, it's been, you know, talked about, it's
15:47part of national discourse right now.
15:49And how does that, I guess, extend beyond religious lines there?
15:56Yeah, no, I would really echo what Rowena just mentioned.
16:01You know, we are seeing, even in the United States, an astounding shift when it comes to
16:05public opinion, when it comes to Israel and Palestine.
16:09And this, the shifts we are seeing, and, you know, for the first time, I think it was a
16:14Pew or Gallup poll that found that 53% of Americans now disapprove of Israel.
16:19And that is, that is an astounding jump.
16:23That is the first time more than 50% of Americans have disapproved of Israel in polling history.
16:28But it's more astounding just because of the fact that pro-Israel narratives are so, and
16:34have been so historically ingrained in US culture and US cultural hegemony.
16:40And I think that is the key term here, is the cultural hegemony has shifted.
16:45And these shifts are even more, even more, even more serious when it comes to the generational
16:54gap.
16:54If you look at the polling of American 18 to 29-year-olds or 18 to 30-year-olds across the
17:01political spectrum, this isn't just happening on the political left or amongst Democrats.
17:06This is really a nationwide, politics-wide spectrum shift.
17:13And however, what we are seeing now is how disconnected US policymaking is from public opinion.
17:21And it kind of shocks us sometimes as Americans because we're conditioned to believe that we
17:29live in this unique democracy where masses mean something and mass political support really
17:36means something at the end of the day.
17:38But when a growing majority of Americans, for example, want to condition military aid to
17:44Israel, and that demand is only taken up by a mere fraction of our policymakers, that really
17:53sheds some light on the realities of American democracy.
17:56And it turns us to a bigger question, right?
17:58Because if so many people could be so supportive of a measure, whether it's conditioning aid to
18:04Israel or even something that has even more unanimous opposition, for example, gun restrictions.
18:10Yet at the end of the day, what really comes down to it is the power of US lobbies, interest lobbies.
18:19And like Rowena said, at the end of the day, we can shift public opinion to levels that seem
18:27unfathomable even now.
18:29But that won't change anything as long as we continue to fail in the lobbying battle, as long
18:35as the pro-Israel lobby continues to maintain such an effective grip on our political system,
18:42the public opinion shifts, no matter how astounding they are and no matter how positive they are,
18:47aren't going to impact policy.
18:48So what we need to be shifting our focus to right now is how do we translate this monumental
18:56historical public opinion shift into an actual organized and sustained effort to create a lobbying
19:05infrastructure that can compete with the pro-Israel lobby and its historical impact on our political
19:11system, not just here in the US, but across Western Europe, for example, in the UK.
19:18Just briefly on that note on still talking about public opinion and sentiment and how that
19:25has changed.
19:26Rowena, we're also now just seeing not just the mask off, but amongst just or in public discourse,
19:34the term genocide is now also just being used very openly, very commonly, not just by activists,
19:41but also by legal groups as well, international experts.
19:45Rowena, what do you think are some legal, some political stakes of calling it that by its
19:51name?
19:52And what obligations does it trigger or should it trigger for the international community?
19:57It's good that this term is becoming mainstream.
20:05We are finally, finally, after years, I mean, this is not just something that started on October
20:097th, but there has been a systematic ethnic cleansing of Palestinians by Israel for years,
20:16and the world has just watched it, watched this happening, even before October 7th.
20:22But what we are seeing is that this use, you know, finally calling it something, it at least
20:28gives a proper crime to what Israel is doing.
20:34It's something tangible, something that lawmakers, policymakers can kind of hold on to when they
20:40start building its proper case.
20:42I mean, we have seen, you know, in the International Court of Justice, in international criminal courts,
20:47you know, we have seen cases against Israel already being, you know, tabled, but those
20:51things are notoriously difficult to actually put in place.
20:55So, but it is, it is important nonetheless.
20:58And I think it's very significant that they're using those terms.
21:04And I think it gives something for something, something for people to hold on to, governments
21:08to hold on to, the case against Israel, it will take some time to be built, you know, nothing
21:14happens straight away, everything takes time.
21:17I'm thinking very much of the Vietnam War.
21:20I think a lot of analysts and historians, you know, have looked back to the Vietnam War as
21:25an example of how it was, you know, the US was backing this war.
21:29And it was justified for so, so long until anti-war protests, you know, you have huge demonstrations
21:35all over the world against Vietnam, against US intervention in Vietnam, military action
21:40in Vietnam.
21:41And eventually that actually did push policy, you know, and this was, you know, a war that
21:45no one thought would end and it did.
21:47And that was mainly because of public opinion, shifts in policy, you know, calling the war
21:53what it was.
21:54It wasn't a justifiable Cold War action, but really, you know, an unjustifiable military
22:00intervention by the US on a country that's so far away.
22:04You know, I'm just drawing parallels because I think it's very insightful to see how the
22:08Vietnam War has ended.
22:10And I think we can maybe see some parallels here, change in public opinion, calling what's
22:16happening in Gaza, a genocide.
22:19It all takes time, but it all builds a platform in which that maybe we can actually see real
22:24change.
22:25And maybe I'm being over-optimistic, but it has happened in history.
22:28And I think we should look back in history for clues of what might happen.
22:33Yeah.
22:34Although it does feel, I think, for a lot of people that it just hasn't moved fast enough.
22:38And as Tariq said, there is this growing frustration amongst, or I guess it has to do with the
22:46disconnect between public policy and public opinion because there's so much anger on the
22:51ground.
22:51And I guess just to talk quickly about that disconnect between public policy, what's actually
22:56being discussed by political leaders and what actually people are saying on the ground
23:03about, you know, we're seeing a lot of political movements, a lot of activism, a lot of protests.
23:08Tariq, how long do you think this will stay on the national agenda for the American public?
23:16Well, I think it's going to be top of mind for a long time, for years to come.
23:21I think the very fact that we're in the midst of a genocide that's very much not over is going
23:31to be, you know, a historical turning point, not just for the United States, but I think
23:35for the world.
23:36And I think a lot of it really depends on the future of U.S. power on the global stage.
23:46I think many people argue that the moment we're in is a moment of U.S. decline.
23:52And, you know, I think that that decline is going to take a very long time and it's going
23:58to, you know, come in waves.
24:00And but I think that for there to be any hope of justice and remediation for what Israel has
24:09done in Gaza, I'd argue that the U.S. has to not be the sole global superpower anymore,
24:16because at the current moment, the U.S. and the West hold all the cards to enforcement of
24:21international law.
24:23The international law exists.
24:24The legal definition of genocide exists.
24:26It's very clear.
24:27It's very explicit.
24:28And Israel has committed it.
24:31And I think that if if all of the enforcement mechanisms weren't in Washington's hands, we
24:40would have what we'd be seeing is it would be very different.
24:44But until that power balance shifts and it is shifting, but that that takes a long time.
24:50But until that power balance shifts, I think that, you know, I think that we're going to
24:56continue not seeing any any justice.
25:00We're coming towards the end now, Rowena, just on that note about this translating into
25:05real change or perhaps a shift in the global order.
25:09Do you think the momentum that's been built in Gaza, in, you know, now that we're seeing
25:16it spread across other areas in the Middle East, do you think that this has enough momentum
25:20to perhaps, I guess, say to Washington that you don't have all the cards now?
25:26This is not just entirely up to you.
25:29What would it take, I guess, for there to be real shifts in the global order?
25:38I think Tariq has sort of already, you know, listed down things that really need to happen.
25:43So I don't want to echo him too much.
25:46But at the same time, I think it is important that momentum isn't I don't think it's going
25:50anywhere, especially when it comes to mainstream public opinion.
25:54It's not going to go anywhere.
25:56I think that voice is going to get stronger.
25:57The pressure is going to get higher.
25:59It costs, the human cost is already far too high.
26:04You know, the numbers of people who've been killed in Gaza is just, it's terrible.
26:11And it's too much, too little, too much at this point already.
26:14But at the same time, I think it's important not to downplay that momentum.
26:19It's important for us to keep talking about it, to make sure that, you know, everything
26:23remains sort of in the open.
26:26Pressure will build eventually.
26:29I'm optimistic that this shift will lead to Israel being properly brought to justice
26:36in some way.
26:38And I do believe that eventually this idea of what a free Palestine would really mean
26:42becomes part of public consciousness.
26:45So I just hope that this momentum keeps going.
26:48And I really think it will.
26:50Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts.
26:53That's Tariq and Rowena with us on Awani Global, sharing their thoughts on not just
26:58what's happening in Gaza, but of course now with what's happening in Iran and Israel.
27:03And we'll be continuing with developments in the region on Astro Awani.
27:08That's all on this hour with me.
27:09I'll catch you another time.
Comments