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Analysts predict military modernisation will accelerate among countries in Southeast Asia this year. Nailah Huda is joined by Dr Abdul Rahman Yaacob from RSDI to understand current trends in defence diplomacy and military modernisation in the region, and what to expect in the years to come.
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01:30This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda.
01:33Analysts predict military modernisation will accelerate in countries in Southeast Asia this year,
01:40either driven by growing uncertainty in the overall security environment or perhaps contestation closer to home.
01:47In this episode, we want to understand current trends and shifts in defence diplomacy and military modernisation in the region
01:55and what we can expect in the years to come.
01:58To unpack, we have joining us now Dr. Abdul Rahman Yaqub, Assistant Professor at Rabdan Security and Defence Institute.
02:04Thank you so much, Dr. Rahman, for joining us on Awani Global.
02:08Maybe we can start off with a sort of a bigger picture question.
02:11You know, as we see, not just Southeast Asia, but the world as a whole is entering this more and
02:17more uncertain time.
02:19From your perspective, what do you think are some of the biggest trends or shifts in the region's security environment
02:25right now?
02:26Well, thank you for having me.
02:28I think first and foremost, we have to acknowledge that the Chinese military has actually been modernised and actually has
02:36been expanded.
02:38The Chinese Navy, for example, has already outnumbered the American Navy in terms of the number of warships.
02:45So if you look at the maritime domains, the Chinese is quite, I would say, has more capacity and capabilities
02:53compared to the Americans.
02:54That's number one.
02:55And number two, if you look at the US-China rivalry, I think that's another issue that we have to
03:02consider.
03:03So on the economic front, we have the tariff war, but on the military front, we have seen more Americans'
03:11involvement in this part of the world.
03:13So from my research, between 2017 and 2024, we have seen more Americans' military exercises involving regional country.
03:23The Americans are coming here to conduct defence agreements and to also conduct dialogue, defence dialogue with regional country.
03:33So we see a bit of militarisation of this part of the world in recent years.
03:38So that's something that we should monitor closely.
03:42And do you foresee this trend, especially in defence spending and procurement in Southeast Asia, to continue accelerating in 2026
03:50and potentially the years to come?
03:53Yes and no.
03:55Yes, because many of the Southeast Asian countries, they have major security concerns.
04:01One of them is China.
04:03Second is that they are quite concerned about the threat posed by their neighbouring country.
04:09For example, we look at Cambodia and Thailand.
04:13But no, because of what's going on in the Middle East.
04:17If you have seen that the oil prices have gone up, some of the regional country, the economies might be
04:25affected or may be affected and the government will have less income.
04:29So that may likely have an impact on how much resources that a country can actually allocate to defence spending.
04:37So at this point in time, the situation is still fluid.
04:40In fact, we may see a dip in defence spending next year if the current military conflicts in the Middle
04:47East continue.
04:50You mentioned the US and China.
04:52If we were to start with the US and the role they play in the region,
04:56we can see that the US is stepping up security cooperation with countries like the Philippines, Vietnam and even Cambodia
05:02that we know is more so friendly with China.
05:06Now, do you think this is about deterrence or is it about containment of China?
05:11What do you think is driving this?
05:13Yeah, first and foremost, the Southeast Asian region is quite important because of the critical waterway like the Strait of
05:20Malacca, Sunda Strait, Lombok Strait.
05:23And of course, the Americans are quite concerned that regional country might be under pressure from the Chinese military presence
05:32in this part of the world.
05:33I think one of the reasons, that is why they are trying to be more involved, try to improve the
05:39capabilities of this ASEAN country.
05:43I'll give you an example in Malaysia.
05:45Not many know that the Americans and the Malaysians, they have quite close defence, I would say, cooperation.
05:52The Americans supply air defence weather to Malaysia and I think it was placed either in Sabah or Sarawak.
05:59And the Americans have also donated maritime capabilities plane that actually can monitor the maritime domain.
06:09So we have seen more American involvement to support the Malaysians' defence capabilities.
06:16I mean, given this long-standing relationship, do you think that Southeast Asian countries actually trust long-term US commitment,
06:25especially given the shifting priorities that we're seeing in Washington right now?
06:28Do you think that's bound to change?
06:31Yes, sad to say that for many years, there has been concerns among some Southeast Asian defence planner
06:38that the American commitment is actually not permanent.
06:43I'll give you an example.
06:45One of the senior defence officials from a maritime Southeast Asian country,
06:50he mentioned that he's quite concerned that if the Americans suffer heavy casualties in any military conflict with China,
06:58they may just decide to pack everything and go back to Hawaii.
07:01So what will happen to the rest of ASEAN?
07:03We will still have to stay and leave with China.
07:06So if you look at what's going on in this part of the world,
07:10the Americans are pulling out resources, sending them from the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East.
07:16The question is, what is their main priority?
07:19Are we at the bottom of the priority list?
07:22So I think that's something many ASEAN countries will start to consider and look at.
07:27If we were to look at China now, how do you think we should understand China's strategy in Southeast Asia?
07:33Do you think it's coercive, opportunistic, or do you think that they're just simply asserting what they think is their
07:41right?
07:42Okay, China adopts different strategy depending on the context.
07:46It will be a bit coercive.
07:48For example, in the case of the Philippines,
07:50the Philippines try to claim certain parts in the South China Sea that the Chinese claims also.
07:57And the Chinese are coming down hard on the Filipinos.
08:00But the Chinese are not that foolish.
08:04I mean, as far as possible, they will try to employ a soft power to capture the elites.
08:10If you look at the case of, for example, Cambodia, under the Premier Hun Sen,
08:16I think the government has chosen the side of China because China have invested quite a fair bit in Cambodia
08:22and supported Cambodia military modernization program.
08:26So I think the Chinese or Beijing actually is playing a very smart strategy.
08:31They use soft power where is it possible?
08:35And of course, hard power, depending on the context.
08:39How do you think the situation in the South China Sea will unfold in 2026,
08:45particularly with the Philippines as Chair of ASEAN this year?
08:48Do you think it will remain business as usual for them?
08:50Or do you think that Philippines might want to take a stronger stance?
08:54I believe that most likely it will remain like a status quo.
09:00There's effort to conclude the Code of Conduct Agreement.
09:03But over the years, every year, all the ASEAN chairs say the same thing.
09:08But at the end of the year, nothing happened.
09:11One of the major reasons is because we have 10 ASEAN countries,
09:15or now 11 ASEAN countries, negotiating with China.
09:18Each one of them have different positions.
09:21So to come to a common denominator is pretty difficult.
09:24You know, we're talking about the US and China.
09:27And the normal approach among countries in the region is
09:31they often say they don't want to choose sides.
09:33Do you think that in this case, and especially in the current landscape,
09:37the current climate right now, do you think, you know,
09:39multi-alignment or even strategies like hedging,
09:43do you think this is still viable, especially in the security context?
09:47Yes, hedging is possible when both superpowers,
09:51they are not applying force or apply hard power on the smaller states.
09:56But if you look at what is going on in South America, in the Caribbean,
10:01we have seen Americans, they are using, applying hard power against smaller states.
10:07So at that point in time, I think the smaller states do not have any choice,
10:11but they need to take a side.
10:14So I think this is what, this is a major concern for South East Asian countries.
10:20If, for example, the American decided, look, we need to come down hard on China,
10:24and you have to choose whether you trade with us or you trade with China.
10:28So that's something that the South East Asian countries will have to decide for themselves.
10:33They will do the calculation whether siding with Americans will bring more benefit
10:38or to go with China.
10:40So it's not an easy answer at this point in time.
10:44Do you think what's happening between the US, Israel and Iran right now
10:48might affect perceptions in the region?
10:52Yes.
10:53If you look at it this way, the Gulf country actually,
10:56they host American military bases.
10:59In the understanding that these bases will be able to protect them from Iran.
11:03But as we have seen, in fact, these bases actually attract Iran firing missiles into this country.
11:11And I think this is the question that maybe the Philippines and Singapore will have to consider
11:15because they do host a large number of American military forces.
11:21If there is a military conflict between the US and China,
11:24no doubt that China will decide to hit these military facilities,
11:30either in Singapore and the Philippines, that are hosting American forces.
11:33So the question is, does the American military presence in this country
11:39bring benefits to the country or it will bring more costs to the country?
12:00If we were to look in the economic context,
12:04if we were to talk about US tariffs, for example,
12:07a lot of analysts were pushing for market diversification as a means of reducing reliance on the US market.
12:15If we were to apply this same approach in the context of security and defence spending,
12:21we can see that there is a noticeable diversification of arms suppliers in the region.
12:26We're looking at France, Turkey and even India.
12:30Do you think this is something new?
12:32And if so, what do you think is driving this shift?
12:35Yeah, it is quite something new because ASEAN country or the original five ASEAN country,
12:41they operate almost similar weapon platform supplied by the Americans during the Cold War.
12:46But I think in recent years, they have moved towards a non-American weapon platform.
12:53There are many reasons.
12:54First, first is the cost.
12:56American platforms are more expensive.
12:58So if you can get nearly a platform that has almost similar capabilities,
13:04but at a cheaper rate, why not?
13:06Second, every time the Americans sell weapons to the customer,
13:12they have a lot of conditions, how you use it and things like that.
13:16So some other countries, they do not have that much restrictions.
13:19And that also drive country like, for example, Indonesia to purchase combat aircraft from Turkey and from France.
13:29So there's several factors that actually drive Southeast Asian countries to diversify.
13:35And cost is one of them.
13:36And of course, some of them, they do not want to be over-reliant on the Americans in terms of
13:42weapons.
13:43Because if 100% of your weapons are supplied by the Americans,
13:48the Americans can decide to cause problem in the supply chain and how you operate your combat aircraft,
13:55how do you operate your warship if everything comes from the Americans.
14:01On this note, correct me if I'm wrong,
14:04but I think some trends are showing that there's more and more investment,
14:08particularly in naval and air capabilities that we're seeing from countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and even Malaysia.
14:15What do you think this says about how these countries might perceive ongoing or future conflicts?
14:23I think if you look at Southeast Asia, most of Southeast Asia are actually water.
14:29So the army play a lesser role in a conflict over the waters.
14:33And that's why many ASEAN countries, they start to modernize or invest more in naval capabilities.
14:40They start to buy newer combat aircraft.
14:43So I think the expectation is that any future military conflict most likely will take place in the air and
14:51in the maritime domain.
14:53But having said that, you know, country like Laos, Myanmar,
14:58I think their main focus will tend to be in the army because they are facing certain threats,
15:02certain security concerns that is mostly coming out from in the land domain.
15:08So for the rest of the maritime Southeast Asia, I believe that they are going to invest more in their
15:14navies and in their air force.
15:16If you look at Indonesia, like what you mentioned, they are buying newer warships from all over the place.
15:22Singapore is building up to 10 new warships at this point in time.
15:25And of course, Malaysia has its own defense program to purchase new warships.
15:32Talking about this trend of military modernization, you mentioned some factors there.
15:37But do you think this is ultimately more about deterrence?
15:40Or do you think that there is this threat, this possibility of actual conflict scenarios
15:46that is becoming more and more real for the region as we're seeing with Thailand and Cambodia in the past
15:51year, for example?
15:53Yes, deterrence is one factor.
15:56It's the first factor.
15:57So if you have a capable navy and air force, it might deter any hostile actor from taking action.
16:05But if deterrence fails, then that's why you need a capable military to defeat the enemy.
16:12So the investment actually deals with deterrence and also to improve the capabilities to destroy or to defeat the potential
16:20enemy.
16:21I think we see that, for example, the Philippines, they are developing, they are buying modern aircraft and investing in
16:30modern warships
16:31because they know that their old fleet of warships cannot compete with China.
16:35So modern warships that are capable to launch missiles, they might provide some deterrence against China.
16:42I mean, as we're seeing tensions like the Thailand-Kambodia border situation,
16:46what do you think are some of the more likely flashpoints in Southeast Asia for the next one to three
16:52years?
16:54Yeah, the major potential flashpoint will be Cambodia-Thailand.
16:59And the other one, which I hope doesn't take place, is the Malaysia-Indonesia over the Ambalad Sea.
17:07I think there's some negotiation between the two countries.
17:10But what happened last year was that I noticed certain parties have started to put up anti-Malaysian campaign in
17:19the social media,
17:20criticizing Malaysia, accusing Malaysia of harming Indonesian fishermen.
17:24So we are not sure whether, where will this go to?
17:29Will there be more tension between Indonesia and Malaysia?
17:32So these are two potential major flashpoints among ASEAN countries.
17:38But the elephant in the room will be likely the South China Sea and Taiwan.
17:44We know that China actually claimed a large part of the South China Sea.
17:48Will China apply military force to reclaim certain portion that the Filipinos and the Malaysians are claiming?
17:55The other one is Taiwan.
17:57If China decide to use military force against Taiwan, we will see an influx of refugees coming in from Taiwan
18:04into the Philippines,
18:06and maybe they may take boats down all the way to Borneo.
18:08So these are potential areas of conflict.
18:12I want to go back to the South China Sea.
18:15As you mentioned, this potentially becoming a remaining flashpoint for the region.
18:20And as you said previously, realistically, I think it's difficult to expect progress in the South China Sea code of
18:26conduct in the ASEAN framework.
18:28But if we're looking at statements from the Philippines that they've said they want to be prepared,
18:35and they're preparing essentially for a delay in allied support, much like what we're seeing with the sentiment in the
18:42Middle East
18:42that this alliance can possibly not just become an issue of delay, but potentially a hindrance of some sorts.
18:52What do you think this is about alliance reliability in a crisis, particularly in the context of the Philippines?
18:59Yes, I think the Philippines has taken a clear stand that it is taking the side of the Americans in
19:06the case of the South China Sea.
19:07So the problem is that whether the Americans are able to provide sufficient support in a short space of time.
19:16I think given that, you know, the Americans are now focusing on the Middle East,
19:19and the Americans are running out of interceptor missiles.
19:24So how are they going to defend the Philippines, even if there's a future conflict?
19:30So this is the factor that the Filipinos have actually considered.
19:34So when I spoke to Filipino officials, they did mention that because of the uncertainty about the American support,
19:42that's the reason why they have been signing plenty of defense agreement with, for example, Japan, with the French,
19:48and of course, with other countries.
19:50So Manila is hoping that in the event of a military conflict,
19:55they would be able to draw support from other middle powers, not only from the Americans,
20:01to help them to counter the threats from China.
20:04If the current trends continue, as we've talked about with increasing diversification in military modernization,
20:12and even in defense diplomacy, what do you think Southeast Asia security architecture and landscape as a whole will look
20:19like in the next 5-10 years?
20:22That's something that is quite worrying.
20:26So as part of my project, I look at the number of defense agreement, number of dialogue mechanism,
20:33and of course, the number of joint military exercises between ASEAN country and external partner.
20:39So between 2017 and 2024, all the numbers of all these metrics have gone up.
20:46It shows that major power and middle powers such as Australia, European country, Japan, South Korea,
20:54they are investing more and more in this part of the world in terms of improving the ASEAN's defense capabilities.
21:02I think the concern here is that will it lead to an arm race among the ASEAN country?
21:07That's one.
21:08Second, will it lead to a more militarization of this part of the world?
21:14And I think that's something that we should try to avoid, actually, because you see, when in a small space
21:22like the South China Sea,
21:23when there are so many players moving in their forces, accident can happen and things may escalate quickly.
21:31I mean, as you said, and you laid out some of these potential risks for the next 5-10 years,
21:37increasing militarization, a more militarized region.
21:40Do you think that Malaysia is well-equipped for that kind of environment in the region?
21:47I think the Malaysian government, so far from my understanding,
21:51they know that there are certain areas that they have to improve on.
21:55For example, they are looking at modern combat aircraft.
21:58They are looking to modernize their navy.
22:01But the concern is that how are they going to implement it?
22:04I think the Malaysian's defense budget is pretty small.
22:07That's one.
22:07The other thing is the procurement process sometimes is questionable.
22:12I think we have looked at some of the naval acquisition program in Malaysia,
22:17that payment has been made, but the WOSIP is not completed yet.
22:21So that's something that the Malaysians have to look into in order to modernize their military,
22:29to deter any hostile actor.
22:32But having said that, I think Malaysia is quite good in terms of defense diplomacy.
22:36The Malaysian government is able to negotiate with China, to my understanding,
22:42so that China does not block Malaysia from extracting economic resources from the South China Sea.
22:49So I think sometimes, instead of buying more weapons, more combat aircraft,
22:55what Malaysia did is to engage them on the diplomatic fronts to extract the benefits.
22:59Plenty more I'd like to discuss, but unfortunately that's all the time that we have today.
23:03Thank you so much, Dr. Rahman, for joining us on Awani Global.
23:06Thank you very much.
23:08That was Dr. Abdul Rahman Yaakob, Assistant Professor at Ramdan Security and Defense Institute, RSDI,
23:13sharing some insights on current trends and shifts in defense diplomacy and military modernization in Southeast Asia.
23:20That is all on Awani Global this week with me, Nalouda.
23:22We'll catch you the next time.
25:04You
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