- 2 days ago
From the devastating conflict in Sudan to renewed tensions along the Thailand–Cambodia border, AWANI Global examines how fragile peace becomes when tested by power and mistrust. Nailah Huda is joined by Shayna Lewis, Sudan Specialist, and William J. Jones, Asst. Prof. of International Relations, to unpack the latest developments and what they reveal about the state of conflict today.
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00:00This is Awani Global with me, Naila Huda.
00:10And on Awani Global this week, we want to look at two recent developments.
00:13One that's slightly closer to home and one on the other side of the world.
00:18In the later half of the show, we unpacked the Thailand-Kambodia border dispute,
00:22particularly Thailand's decision to suspend the peace agreement
00:26following a landmine explosion injuring Thai soldiers.
00:29But before that, we'll delve into a much more complex, much more dire situation unraveling in Sudan.
00:36In October, the Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces RSF captured the city of El Fasher,
00:41capital of North Darfur and the last remaining stronghold of the Sudanese army in the region.
00:47The battle for the city has been one of the most intense confrontations
00:51in a war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions.
00:55While information on the ground has been quite scarce due to a telecommunications blackout,
01:01investigators suggest that the atrocities and even suspected mass killings
01:05can even be seen from satellite visuals.
01:08So joining us now to help us unpack what's actually happening on the ground
01:12and what we can expect, some of the implications from this.
01:17Joining us now, we have Shaina Lewis, Sudan Specialist and Human Rights Consultant.
01:21She's a Senior Advisor at Pema, Preventing and Ending Mass Atrocities,
01:25and also a Sudan Media Consultant at Avaaz Media.
01:28Thank you so much, Shaina, for joining us.
01:31Thanks for having me, Naila.
01:32Now, maybe you can share with us some of the latest reports
01:36you've been hearing on the ground, particularly in El Fasher.
01:40So in El Fasher currently, we suspect that the acts of genocide are ongoing.
01:45What we've seen over the past two weeks is the continued targeting of certain ethnicities
01:51in and around El Fasher, particularly the Ford, Zagawa and Bertie communities.
01:56And we have seen men particularly being targeted.
02:00I've been speaking to survivors who arrived in Tawila,
02:03the main humanitarian hub in the area,
02:05who recount that their women, who recount that their husbands were killed in El Fasher.
02:09And as they then attempted to flee with their children,
02:12their young boys were ripped out of their arms and executed.
02:15This is a systematic pattern of genocide, which includes mass rapes.
02:20And it is a systematic policy.
02:22Genocide does not just happen because of rogue commanders on the ground.
02:25It is something that is orchestrated at the highest levels of a command structure.
02:29So of the RSF in particular here.
02:31And one of the most concerning elements of this
02:34is that around 200,000 people are missing from El Fasher.
02:39The population before the acts began
02:42was estimated to be around 260,000.
02:45And we have had only around 80,000 people who have been recently displaced
02:52from El Fasher city and from the locality.
02:55So where are the missing hundreds of thousands of civilians from El Fasher?
02:59Were they all killed and have now been placed in mass graves by the RSF?
03:02Or are they being kept captive in the city?
03:06In which case, there is still a chance for atrocity prevention here.
03:09But that takes concerted action by the international community to save lives.
03:13Now, what we do know is this is, of course, a protracted conflict that isn't new.
03:20But what is new is the fall of El Fasher captured by the RSF.
03:25What led to this?
03:27And what are potentially the implications of this happening?
03:31Can we expect the de facto partition in this country to deepen?
03:35So the fall of El Fasher was probably the most predicted atrocity that we've ever had.
03:41Because for over 18 months, the RSF besieged the city in a medieval siege.
03:47They constructed a wall to contain the civilian population
03:51to prevent civilians from exiting or entering.
03:54And for over two years, civil society, particularly Sudanese groups,
03:59were warning about the risk of atrocities.
04:01So in terms of what has happened in El Fasher, again, there was a chance to prevent this.
04:07And the international community stood by and stood down.
04:11In terms of what comes next, now El Fasher is critical because it is the capital of North Darfur.
04:17And now the RSF more or less has control of the entire region of Darfur.
04:23Unfortunately, this doesn't mean an end to the conflict in Sudan.
04:26It doesn't mean that we're now close to an inevitable partition, as some are saying.
04:30Instead, the locus of conflict is shifting to the western region known as the Kordofans.
04:36Recall that the same weekend that El Fasher city fell,
04:39the RSF perpetrated massacre in Bara, in North Kordofan,
04:44where they massacred, again, hundreds of civilians.
04:47So I think we're starting to see a pass in here.
04:50There are also similar medieval sieges that are taking place in South Kordofan,
04:54in the cities of Kudugli and Dillage.
04:56So again, there is still an opportunity for atrocity prevention here.
04:59I don't think we're at the tidy resolution of splitting the country in two.
05:05There are still massive rifts and also massive drivers of conflict.
05:10Both sides currently still feel that they have more to gain on the military battlefield
05:16than coming to the negotiating table.
05:18And that is why we are still seeing little progress towards a nationwide ceasefire,
05:22which is ultimately the only way that we will end the conflict in Sudan.
05:26As you said, both sides still have more to gain from these,
05:32you know, these atrocities from these military advancements.
05:37And in an interview with Ziteo recently,
05:40you also described both sides, RSF and the SAF, as two sides of the same coin.
05:46Can you elaborate what you mean by this?
05:47And where do you think the people of Sudan stand on this?
05:51Absolutely.
05:52So if you'll allow me to just take a step back through Sudanese history.
05:55When the Dillage War genocide began in 2003,
05:59the Sudanese armed forces created the Janjaweed.
06:02They mobilized ethnic groups in the area to perpetrate the genocide.
06:06SAF has always been primarily an air force.
06:10They do not have a strong infantry,
06:12which is why they needed people on the ground,
06:14which were the Janjaweeds, to perpetrate the genocide.
06:16The Sudanese armed forces in their Antonov warplanes
06:19would go through and carpet bomb villages across Darfur.
06:23And the Janjaweed armed militias on horseback or on jeeps
06:28would then enter the villages and cleanse the area of any remaining civilians.
06:33They would poison the wells.
06:34They would slaughter any cattle.
06:36And they would kill particularly young men,
06:39rape the women and throw the bodies into the wells
06:41so that they polluted the groundwater sources
06:43and civilians could not return to the areas.
06:45If we fast forward a little bit,
06:48we have to look at 2013,
06:50when the Janjaweed were then codified into Sudan's national security apparatus
06:57and became the rapid support forces under the leadership of Hermetiu,
07:01who is still the leader of the RSF.
07:04They have a shared history of brutality.
07:06These policies of genocide, again,
07:08did not erupt two weeks ago in Al-Fasha
07:11or even two years ago when this war broke out,
07:13but they are part of the DNA of both the RSF,
07:17well, particularly the RSF,
07:18because the RSF are the ones perpetrating this on the ground.
07:21But then if we go forwards to 2019 during the revolution,
07:25the peaceful revolution that was led largely by Sudanese youth,
07:31the RSF and SAF are jointly responsible for the massacres that happened,
07:35particularly in the sit-in where hundreds of Sudanese civilians
07:39who were peacefully protesting were gunned down
07:41and their bodies thrown into the river.
07:44And the civilian transition that was taking place,
07:47flawed as it may have been,
07:49was then derailed in October 2021,
07:52when Hermeti, as the leader of the RSF,
07:54and Burhan, as the leader of SAF,
07:56jointly perpetrated a coup which derailed that transition.
08:00So when we say that the RSF and SAF are two sides of the same coin,
08:05it is not drawing a false equivalency
08:06between the genocide being perpetrated by the RSF
08:09and the actions of the Sudanese armed forces,
08:11who, mind you, are also carrying out ethnic targeting
08:14in areas under their control,
08:16under the law of strange faces,
08:18and the fact that the UN documented summary executions
08:21that took place in Southern Khartoum
08:23when the Sudanese armed forces recaptured the capital earlier this year.
08:28It is about recognizing the shared history between these two groups
08:32and recalling that when Sudanese stood up in 2019
08:36and called for peace, justice, and freedom in their country,
08:40part of that freedom was the freedom to choose their path
08:43without the involvement of Sudanese security forces
08:46in the politics of the country.
08:49No one here is saying that there is not a role,
08:51a constitutional role for the Sudanese armed forces
08:53in the future of the country,
08:55but there is an argument to be made here
08:57that they should not be involved in the politics of the country
09:00and that the politics should be left to Sudanese people.
09:04Now, in terms of how Sudanese feel about this,
09:07it's a country of 50 million people.
09:09Of course, there are a diversity of views here.
09:11And if you go onto social media,
09:13you may think that all of Sudan is united against this position
09:16and actually believe that SAF are the righteous party here
09:19versus the RSF.
09:21And I think part of that is because
09:22there is a very strong anti-war movement going on
09:25and there is a lot of disinformation and slandering
09:28of civil society voices who speak up in support of peace
09:31and against violations that are being perpetrated
09:34by either the RSF or SAF
09:37because there are violations happening on both sides.
09:40And you must question,
09:41why is there such a concerted effort
09:43to shut down a movement that is pro-peace
09:46and pro and enter violations
09:48no matter where they are happening in the country
09:50and no matter who is perpetrating them?
09:53And I guess what complicates this even more
09:56is when there are external forces,
09:58external parties involved.
10:00And of course, there's been a lot of attention in the media
10:03on the involvement of the United Arab Emirates or the UAE.
10:07To what extent do you think are external backers
10:10like the UAE involved in this war
10:12and making it potentially even worse?
10:14And how crucial are tools like boycotts and sanctions
10:19would work against external parties
10:22like the UAE in this case?
10:24I think the role of the external backers
10:26in this war cannot be overstated.
10:29Last night, we saw a very strong statement
10:31from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
10:33where he seemed to finally be acknowledging
10:35the role of external backers
10:38in the RSF's crimes on the ground.
10:41Now, make no mistake, the RSF is only able
10:46to perpetrate these atrocities
10:48with the support of the UAE.
10:51The UAE is providing financial, material
10:54and political cover for the crimes
10:57of the rapid support forces
10:58and continue to deny any role in the conflict.
11:02Yet somehow, they are in the grouping
11:04known as the Quad,
11:05which we all know brings the external backers
11:08to the table.
11:08So, in terms of a way forward,
11:11it is absolutely essential
11:13that there is more recognition
11:14of the role of the UAE here.
11:17And if there is one bright spark
11:20that has emerged from El Fasher,
11:22from the atrocities in El Fasher,
11:24it is the fact that there seems to be
11:25this turning point now of more momentum
11:28and more acknowledgement of the role of the UAE.
11:31And that needs to continue.
11:32That needs to continue into a full boycott
11:34that resembles the BDS campaign
11:36because those are the levels of abuses
11:38that we are talking about on the ground.
11:40It means people foregoing their holidays to Dubai
11:43or purchasing Dubai chocolate
11:45or flying Emirates
11:46and prioritizing Sudanese civilian lives
11:48instead of that material comfort
11:50that comes with an Emirati lifestyle.
11:54And it means, as you said, Naila,
11:56pursuing sanctions on Emirati entities
11:59and individuals who have a role
12:01in perpetrating this conflict
12:03and continuing to commission atrocities on the ground.
12:07The U.S. Treasury Department,
12:10I think it was last year,
12:12they issued a set of sanctions
12:13on six Emirati entities.
12:16Now, these were pending designations
12:19and those designations after over a year
12:22now need to be converted into full sanctions.
12:25And we need to also see sanctions
12:26through the UN 1591 Committee,
12:30which is part of the UN apparatus.
12:33It is an existing mechanism
12:35that goes back to the Darfur genocide
12:36and pursues those who have committed violations
12:41of the Darfur arms embargo
12:42or are threatening peace and security in Saddam.
12:45There are many individuals and entities
12:47that need to be considered on that list.
12:49And then also worth noting,
12:51there is nothing foregoing.
12:52Individual states around the world
12:54from issuing targeted sanctions
12:56on either RSF leadership
12:58or on anyone,
13:01whether it's the UAE, Egypt, Saudi,
13:04or staff commanders or RSF commanders
13:06who are threatening the peace
13:08and stability of Sudan currently.
13:10Shayna, I know we're running out of time,
13:12but I do just want to quickly
13:13get your thoughts on this.
13:14And this might be a bit challenging
13:16given that this is potentially
13:18a quite loaded question.
13:19But the way we're looking at
13:21how Sudan is framed,
13:22especially on social media,
13:23especially in the West,
13:24people tend to talk about
13:26or use the war in Sudan
13:27as a tool of this sort of moral
13:29whataboutism,
13:31particularly in comparison
13:32to the genocide in Gaza.
13:34Do you think this is a problematic conflation?
13:36Just some of your brief thoughts on this.
13:39I think it is problematic.
13:41It's problematic to say
13:43that there hasn't been attention
13:44on Sudan
13:45whilst there has been an outpouring on Gaza.
13:48We're not saying that there should be
13:49any less attention on Gaza.
13:50We're saying that when equivalent
13:52or similar crimes are happening
13:55in other areas of the world,
13:56they demand just as much attention.
13:58There's no moral relativism here.
14:00Atrocities, whether they're war crimes,
14:02crimes against humanity,
14:03or acts of genocide
14:04are in violation of international law
14:07and they all have to be stopped.
14:09And there is an international duty
14:10to prevent and stop
14:12and prosecute acts of genocide.
14:15And that is a responsibility
14:16that the world collectively
14:17is failing in at this moment.
14:20When we think of, you know,
14:22what's happening in Gaza
14:23versus what's happening in Sudan,
14:25I think we have to note
14:26the racial underpinnings
14:29of the lack of attention
14:30that we're seeing on Sudan.
14:32Oftentimes, we'll hear
14:33as very throwaway comments
14:35that what's happening in Africa
14:36happens pretty regularly.
14:38It's not just Sudan.
14:39There's also conflict in the DRC
14:40and many other areas.
14:42And this racist language
14:45acts as though there is
14:46some kind of intrinsic character
14:51of Black Africans
14:53that make us more prone
14:55to violent conflict.
14:57And of course, that is not the case.
14:59And what is happening in Sudan
15:00is being driven by external forces
15:02as well as commanders on the ground
15:03who are prioritizing their military victory
15:06over civilian lives.
15:08And that has to be stopped.
15:09And part of what is needed here
15:11is for the international community
15:12to increase humanitarian aid
15:14to Sudan
15:15because those who are fleeing
15:16these conflict hubs
15:18are being met with no resources.
15:20They have no shelter
15:20and the winter is approaching.
15:22They have no food.
15:23They have no water.
15:24Famine is widespread across Sudan,
15:26particularly in Darfur
15:27and the Kronifan regions
15:29that I mentioned.
15:29So there is still a chance
15:30to save lives here.
15:31We just need political will.
15:34Yep.
15:35Thank you so much, Shenan.
15:36Hopefully what we've done here today
15:37is to highlight a little bit
15:39on what's going on.
15:40Thank you so much once again.
15:41Shaina for joining us.
15:42Thank you for having me.
15:44We'll be taking a short break
15:45on Awani Global.
15:46Don't go anywhere.
15:46We'll be back shortly.
15:47You're still tuning in to Awani Global
16:03with me, Naila Huda.
16:04And Thailand has suspended
16:06the landmark peace agreement
16:07with Cambodia,
16:08brokered by Malaysia
16:09and the United States
16:10after a landmine explosion
16:12near their border
16:13injured Thai soldiers this week.
16:15Prime Minister Anutin Chan-Virakul
16:18said after the incident
16:19that all action
16:20set to be carried out
16:21under the peace agreement
16:23will be halted
16:24until Thailand's demands,
16:26which remain unspecified,
16:27are met.
16:28Joining us now
16:29to unpack
16:30some of these
16:31recent key events
16:32and what could potentially
16:33transpire,
16:35what are the implications.
16:36We have joining us now
16:37William J. Jones,
16:38Assistant Professor
16:39of International Relations
16:40at Maidol University
16:41International College
16:42to help us understand
16:44some of these implications
16:45of this development.
16:46What steps can we expect
16:48to be taken next?
16:49Thank you so much,
16:50William,
16:50for joining us today.
16:52Thank you, Naila,
16:52for having me.
16:53It's a pleasure.
16:54Now, what led Thailand
16:56to suspend
16:57the peace agreement
16:58with Cambodia?
16:58We know
16:59there's a landmine explosion,
17:01but do you think
17:02that the tensions
17:02have been simmering
17:03since the ceasefire deal?
17:06Oh, for sure.
17:07It goes without saying
17:09that there is
17:11a distinct lack of trust.
17:13I'm not sure about
17:14on the Cambodian side,
17:15of course.
17:16I'm sure there's issues
17:16over there.
17:17I'm more familiar
17:17with the Thai government,
17:19the Thai side.
17:20I can say for sure
17:22that on this side,
17:22there is zero trust,
17:24be it in,
17:27or especially on,
17:29with the top levels
17:30of government,
17:31zero confidence
17:33in their ability
17:34to carry out
17:35facets of the ceasefire,
17:39but then also
17:40continuing sort of
17:42encroachments
17:42and fears of
17:44territorial loss.
17:48As I said,
17:49news reports quote
17:51Prime Minister Anutin
17:52stating that
17:53the points
17:53that were agreed upon
17:55in the peace agreement
17:56are quote-unquote
17:57no more.
17:59What do you think
17:59are the immediate
18:00implications of this?
18:01So immediately,
18:03I think this means
18:04first and foremost,
18:05there's going to be
18:06no hostage releases,
18:08or I shouldn't say
18:08hostages,
18:09prisoners of war per se.
18:12They're not going to be
18:13released anytime soon.
18:16And also,
18:17I suspect that
18:18all upcoming
18:20JBC meetings,
18:21RBC meetings,
18:22and other joint meetings
18:24that the Thai and
18:25Cambodian governments
18:26have related to
18:27border issues,
18:28these are all going
18:29to be suspended,
18:30of which there are
18:32numerous,
18:32which were actually
18:33planned,
18:34basically sort of
18:35monthly going on
18:36past the new year.
18:38I suspect that
18:39all these are done with.
18:41I mean,
18:42as you said,
18:42there's very little
18:44trust or perhaps
18:45zero confidence
18:46on the Thai side.
18:48Do you think that
18:49we should have seen
18:50this coming,
18:50that it was inevitable
18:51that the peace deal
18:52would have broken down?
18:54So,
18:55I don't think it's
18:55an inevitability per se.
18:58I think things have
18:59been really gaining pace,
19:01and this has to do
19:02a lot with,
19:03I think,
19:03domestic politics
19:04on both sides
19:05of the border,
19:06to be honest.
19:07Just prior to
19:08the ASEAN summit,
19:09we had,
19:10you know,
19:10the big breaking news
19:11from the Trump
19:12administration
19:13that some
19:15$15 billion
19:16in crypto
19:17and other assets
19:18have been seized
19:18from alleged,
19:20you know,
19:21scam rings
19:22and whatnot
19:22that were based
19:23in Cambodia.
19:24This was,
19:25I believe,
19:26maybe just a week
19:27or more prior
19:28to the ASEAN summit.
19:30So,
19:30this was definitely
19:31a bombshell.
19:32And this has,
19:33you know,
19:34various news reports
19:36that have come out
19:37implicating
19:38alleged Thai politicians,
19:41very high ranking,
19:42perhaps some
19:42in the government
19:43currently,
19:45and also former,
19:46have shaken
19:47the confidence
19:48in the Thai government
19:50at home
19:50and put an awful
19:52lot of pressure
19:52on the current
19:53prime minister
19:54who is,
19:54of course,
19:55by definition,
19:57a short-term
19:57prime minister,
19:58interim basically
20:00from the beginning,
20:00only a four-month stint.
20:03So,
20:03I don't think
20:04it was inevitable
20:04per se,
20:06but with the increasing
20:07pressures coming up
20:08from the bottom
20:09and then also
20:10pressures coming
20:11from outside,
20:13the geopolitical side,
20:14right,
20:15with sort of
20:15Trump's recognition,
20:16well,
20:16maybe not recognition
20:17but support
20:18of opposition figures.
20:20Sam Renzi
20:20helped with breaking
20:22through the single gateway
20:24that Cambodia
20:26has for the last
20:27couple of years
20:28had with their
20:29internet.
20:30This is definitely
20:31turning the situation
20:35sideways
20:36and upside down.
20:37I mean,
20:38as you said,
20:39some of this
20:39boils down to
20:40internal or domestic
20:42politics and pressures
20:43from outside
20:44and within.
20:45I want to look
20:46quickly at this
20:47news report
20:48also quoting
20:49the People's Party
20:50urging Prime Minister
20:52Anutin to take
20:53four diplomatic
20:54measures,
20:55one of which
20:56is to contact
20:57the US President
20:58and also the Malaysian
20:59Prime Minister
20:59to affirm
21:00Thailand's position
21:02and this is
21:03specifically before
21:04the Cambodian
21:05Prime Minister
21:05gets to shape
21:06their narratives.
21:07I mean,
21:07as of the time
21:08of recording
21:08Thursday today,
21:10we're not sure
21:10what exactly
21:11has transpired
21:12between these
21:13leaders,
21:14but what are
21:14your thoughts
21:15on this?
21:17What can we
21:17expect the
21:18dynamic of
21:19this peace
21:20deal to look
21:20like?
21:22These are
21:23good suggestions
21:25from the
21:25People's Party.
21:26It goes without
21:27saying.
21:29I think this
21:30government has
21:31so far in
21:33its one
21:34month has
21:35been far
21:36better than
21:36its predecessor
21:37in its
21:38communication
21:38strategy.
21:39The previous
21:41government,
21:42the Kuwait-Thailand
21:42government of
21:43two years,
21:45just never
21:46really caught
21:47stride with
21:49any semblance
21:49of a coherent
21:50communication
21:53strategy,
21:54whether it be
21:54with Myanmar
21:55or various
21:56incidents with
21:57Cambodia,
21:58you know,
21:58so Thailand
21:58was always
21:59caught on
21:59the back
22:00foot.
22:01Of course,
22:02getting in
22:02touch with
22:03the Americans
22:03is important.
22:05Donald Trump,
22:05of course,
22:06is a very
22:07important world
22:08leader.
22:09That being
22:10said,
22:11I think
22:12there was
22:13a lot of
22:13emphasis,
22:14of course,
22:17for the
22:18right reasons
22:18given to
22:19Donald Trump,
22:19sort of
22:20putting pressure
22:20on both
22:21sides to
22:21come to
22:21the table.
22:22But behind
22:23the scenes,
22:24there was
22:24also a lot
22:25of help,
22:27guidance,
22:27if you will,
22:28provided by
22:30the Chinese
22:30and also
22:32Aussie and
22:34Chair Anwar
22:35Ibrahim,
22:35of course,
22:36sort of in a
22:36facilitating role
22:37to help
22:38bring the
22:38two sides
22:39together.
22:41I think
22:42to broaden
22:43the strategy,
22:44perhaps,
22:44in terms of
22:45a diplomatic
22:46strategy,
22:47which would
22:48be prudent
22:48for Thailand,
22:49would be,
22:50of course,
22:50to reach out
22:51to China,
22:52which is
22:53Cambodia's
22:53primary benefactor,
22:55which can help
22:56an awful lot
22:57in leveraging,
22:58but then also,
22:59perhaps,
23:00to look beyond
23:01the Aussie
23:04and chairmanship
23:05or the current
23:05Aussie and chair
23:06of Anwar Ibrahim
23:08in Malaysia
23:09and perhaps
23:09look to the
23:10Filipinos
23:11who can or
23:13who will be
23:13taking up the
23:14mantle for
23:14the next year
23:16after Malaysia's
23:17chairmanship
23:18expires.
23:20Also,
23:21of course,
23:21the Thais can
23:22also reach out
23:23to the
23:24Vietnamese,
23:25who I know
23:26were making
23:29entrees,
23:30if you will,
23:32when the
23:33issues were
23:34going on
23:35sort of
23:35very heatedly
23:36to try to
23:37play a role
23:38if possible.
23:39But Thailand
23:40deferred at the
23:40time,
23:41of course,
23:41because they
23:42didn't want
23:42to overshadow
23:43the Aussie
23:44and chair.
23:45I think
23:46this
23:47multi-dimensional,
23:49multi-pronged
23:49strategy
23:50could perhaps
23:52serve Thailand
23:52well
23:53instead of
23:53just going
23:54to the
23:55Americans.
23:56Again,
23:57the Americans
23:57have a very
23:58strong voice
23:59but there
24:00are others
24:00also,
24:02the Chinese
24:02but then
24:03also other
24:04ASEAN
24:04partners with
24:05China,
24:06more which
24:06Thailand can
24:07reach out
24:09to.
24:10So,
24:11you think
24:11ASEAN can
24:12manage this
24:12on its
24:13own?
24:13I mean,
24:13I think
24:13before the
24:14show,
24:15we were
24:15sort of
24:16discussing
24:16how
24:17President
24:17Trump
24:17has
24:18issues
24:19to sort
24:19out in
24:19his own
24:20backyard.
24:20So,
24:21do you
24:21think
24:21ASEAN
24:21can
24:22manage
24:22it?
24:26Well,
24:27as a
24:28student
24:28and
24:28scholar
24:29of ASEAN
24:29for over
24:31a decade,
24:32I would
24:34have to
24:34lean towards
24:35the cautious
24:37side of
24:37saying no.
24:39I think
24:40we have
24:40precedence,
24:41of course,
24:41with the
24:41ongoing
24:42issues and
24:42problems
24:43in Thailand's
24:44neighbour,
24:45Myanmar.
24:46ASEAN
24:47plays a
24:47facilitating
24:48role and
24:48is very
24:49important,
24:49of course,
24:50but there
24:51are limitations
24:52to these
24:53processes
24:54within the
24:55regional
24:55organisation.
24:57Of course,
24:58the most
24:59important ones,
25:00of course,
25:01being sovereignty
25:03and non-interference,
25:04which are,
25:04you know,
25:04core ASEAN
25:05principles,
25:06but also
25:06there isn't
25:09a country
25:11or any
25:11group of
25:12countries
25:12within ASEAN
25:13that are
25:14large enough
25:15that can
25:16bring to
25:16bear
25:17material
25:18interest,
25:20you know,
25:20political
25:21pressure or
25:21whatnot,
25:23that I think
25:23would be
25:24sufficient to
25:25overcome these
25:25national security
25:26problems.
25:28I'm also
25:29aware that
25:30current
25:31foreign
25:32minister,
25:32today recently
25:36gave comments,
25:37I believe,
25:38to the
25:38South China
25:39Morning Post
25:40that perhaps
25:42it would be
25:43prudent for
25:44ASEAN to
25:45begin reconsidering
25:46its non-interference
25:47principle.
25:49And this
25:50is
25:50a huge
25:54step,
25:55to be honest,
25:56right?
25:56It's basically,
25:58well,
25:58I don't know,
25:59he's kind
26:00of
26:00recognizing
26:02the
26:03obvious,
26:04you know,
26:06Cambodia
26:06interfered
26:08incredibly
26:08in Thai
26:09affairs
26:09and played
26:11a very
26:12important role
26:13in
26:13helping our
26:15last prime
26:15minister out
26:16of her
26:16position.
26:19And perhaps
26:19if this
26:19should be
26:20reconsidered,
26:21I think
26:21this is
26:21an important
26:23point to
26:24take into
26:24consideration.
26:26So,
26:26do you think
26:27Thailand and
26:27Cambodia are
26:28now back
26:28to square
26:29one?
26:30Do the
26:30terms of
26:31the peace
26:31deal need
26:31to be
26:32looked over,
26:33renegotiated?
26:35No,
26:36I wouldn't
26:36say that
26:37the ceasefire
26:38is over
26:39and the
26:39deal is
26:39dead.
26:41You know,
26:41I mean,
26:41the big
26:42powers still
26:43have a lot
26:43of say in
26:43this,
26:44right?
26:44You mentioned
26:44Donald Trump.
26:46He has his
26:46own issues
26:47domestically,
26:48but I'm
26:51sure that
26:52he doesn't
26:53want and
26:53the Americans
26:54don't want
26:54conflict to
26:56resume and
26:57nor do
26:57the Chinese
26:58in any
26:59way,
26:59shape,
26:59or form,
27:00nor do
27:00other
27:02ASEAN
27:02countries.
27:04So,
27:04I wouldn't
27:05say it's
27:05going back
27:05to square
27:06one,
27:06per se,
27:07because
27:07square one
27:07would be
27:08open war
27:09and conflict,
27:10though this
27:10is a
27:11distinct
27:12possibility,
27:12especially
27:13if the
27:14shooting
27:15continues
27:15or Thai
27:16soldiers
27:16keep getting
27:17maimed
27:17along the
27:17border.
27:19The mood
27:21here in
27:22Bangkok
27:22and in
27:22Thailand
27:23more broadly
27:23is one
27:25of ready
27:27for conflict,
27:28unfortunately.
27:30It's quite
27:30dangerous and
27:31quite volatile.
27:33So,
27:33I don't
27:34think the
27:34ceasefire
27:34and the
27:35deal is
27:35dead.
27:36This is
27:37definitely
27:37a pause
27:38to perhaps
27:40sort of
27:40recalibrate
27:41I think
27:43an important
27:43signal
27:44of late
27:46is that
27:47King
27:49Rambutan
27:49and the
27:51Queen
27:52are going
27:53to be
27:53heading to
27:54China on
27:56an official
27:56state visit
27:57invited by
27:58President Xi
27:59Jinping
27:59coming up
28:00here soon.
28:01I think
28:01this is a
28:02very important
28:02signal
28:03in terms
28:05of perhaps
28:06sort of
28:07balancing
28:08and recalibrating
28:09America's
28:10very
28:12heavy-handed
28:13approach
28:14of late
28:15since April
28:16and to
28:17perhaps
28:17leverage a
28:19little bit
28:20more Chinese
28:20support to
28:21help get
28:22this process
28:23back on
28:24track.
28:26Definitely
28:27something to
28:27monitor over
28:28the next few
28:28weeks as we
28:29see more
28:30developments from
28:31the Thailand
28:32Cambodia border
28:32dispute.
28:33Thank you so
28:33much for
28:34joining us,
28:35William.
28:36Anytime,
28:36Nala.
28:36It's a
28:37pleasure.
28:38Thank you so
28:39much.
28:39And that's
28:39William J.
28:40Jones,
28:40Assistant
28:41Professor of
28:41International
28:41Relations at
28:42Maidul University
28:43International
28:43College,
28:44sharing some
28:45thoughts about
28:46the Thailand
28:46Cambodia border
28:47dispute,
28:48what we can
28:48expect and
28:49what are the
28:49potential
28:49implications.
28:50That is all
28:51on Awani Global
28:52this week.
28:52With me,
28:53Nala Huda,
28:53we'll catch you
28:53next time.
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