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From navigating tariffs and power rivalries to internal disputes and welcoming an 11th member, 2025 was a defining year for Asean. Nailah Huda speaks with Dr Julia Roknifard from Taylor’s University and Dr Phar Kim Beng from IINTAS IIUM on key takeaways from 2025 that could spell the fate for Asean in the coming year.
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00:00This is Awani Global with me, Naila Huda.
00:02And this month, Awani Global will discuss key themes and takeaways from the year 2025
00:07as well as what to expect in the coming year.
00:10And in this week's episode, we take a close look at ASEAN,
00:14where 2025 has of course been a big year for the regional bloc,
00:19from navigating tariffs and trade tensions to internal disputes and an 11th member state, of course.
00:26But we also want to discuss whether ASEAN has taken another step towards deeper economic integration
00:33with advancements in agreements like DEFA and ATIGA and all that.
00:39So that's sort of the focus that we have on this week's episode looking at ASEAN in 2025 and in 2026.
00:46And joining us to help us unpack, we have joining us in the studio,
00:50Dr. Julia Rognifat, Senior Lecturer at the School of Law and Governance at Taylor's University.
00:55And joining us online, we have Dr. Farah Kimbang, Professor of ASEAN Studies
00:59and Director of the Institute of International and ASEAN Studies
01:02at the International Islamic University of Malaysia.
01:05Thank you so much, Julia and Kimbang for joining us on Awani Global.
01:09Of course, familiar faces throughout the year.
01:11We've been with you to help us unpack some of these key themes that the regional bloc has seen.
01:17Perhaps we can start with Julia.
01:19If you had to shortlist and narrow it down to just three of the most influential sort of events
01:26and, you know, anything that ASEAN has been through this year, what would it be?
01:34Thank you for having me.
01:35First and foremost, I would say it's the final member of Southeast Asian region, Timor-Leste,
01:43joining ASEAN, the 11th member of ASEAN.
01:46And this was a path not devoid of challenges, especially for Timor-Leste itself.
01:54And as they said, it's more difficult to get to ASEAN than to heaven.
01:59And finally, this happened.
02:00And I think everybody in ASEAN welcomed this addition to ASEAN family.
02:07We are yet to see how this integration of Timor-Leste into ASEAN will go
02:11because definitely there is an economic gap.
02:16And they will need quite a bit of help and training, also financial assistance
02:23in order to get on par with other ASEAN members.
02:26But I think they would be able to do that if we see interest from the members of ASEAN family
02:33to invest and to support the newly acquired member.
02:37The second one is, of course, the Thai-Cambodia tensions and escalation that we've seen this year.
02:45But once again, we've seen proven ASEAN centrality.
02:52As before our eyes, the ceasefire was negotiated,
02:56even though later on there were some complications that we're going through right now.
03:01Nevertheless, ASEAN addressed the issue at hand quite quickly,
03:06despite the attempts of external actors to claim credit.
03:10And number three, I guess, economy, trade deals and trade cooperation.
03:18And we had a trade deal with China, China-ASEAN, renewed in its version 3.0.
03:26And not the least, some agreements reached with the United States on the issue of tariffs,
03:36which cannot be seen in a negative light.
03:39And I could elaborate on this further later.
03:42But these two, the trade deals between ASEAN members and the United States
03:47and between ASEAN as a whole and China in its version 3.0
03:51would be the third event or the third situation to watch.
03:57Yeah, Timor-Leste, the Thai-Cambodia tensions and the economic trade deals,
04:02some of the, of course, bigger issues that ASEAN had to deal with.
04:06Dr. Farr, do you agree?
04:08Or do you have perhaps another three sort of influential events
04:12that ASEAN has sort of gone through and managed to navigate this year?
04:16I have my own list of the best three.
04:19The first of which is actually what happened in the middle of 2025.
04:25Not exactly in the middle, but maybe on May 23rd or 24th,
04:31that's when ASEAN Gulf Cooperation Council and China had their first economic summit.
04:37Not residing the fact that some of the monarchs from the Gulf Cooperation countries
04:42did not appear, but nonetheless,
04:44they sent their defence and foreign minister,
04:47with the exception of Qatar,
04:49that managed to send the Emirates himself to be in Kuala Lumpur.
04:54That's one.
04:56Secondly,
04:57I wouldn't disagree with what Dr. Julia said
05:00about the importance of the Thai and Cambodian ceasefire.
05:03But having said that,
05:04I would also add that
05:06in the most intangible manner,
05:09it's because there was some degree of willingness by Thailand,
05:14especially to allow Malaysia to serve as a facilitator.
05:19That's why the fact that most of the pressure actually came from the United States.
05:23Now,
05:24this runs in contravention to the norm of non-intervention in ASEAN.
05:28So,
05:30the very fact that we could send an ASEAN observatory team
05:35into the border areas
05:38where the conflict continued to recur in sporadic format,
05:43that in itself is a major breakthrough.
05:46And third on the list is actually the very fact that
05:50as and when China and the United States
05:52were on the verge of a mass-bassive trade war,
05:55we facilitated the likes of
05:59the Deputy Prime Minister of China,
06:02He Li Feng,
06:03to come into Kuala Lumpur immediately
06:06to replace the trade negotiator
06:08who couldn't get along with
06:12U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bresson,
06:15and that person was Li Changgang.
06:17So,
06:17when you can do that,
06:19when ASEAN can actually facilitate
06:21an immediate turnover of the trade negotiation,
06:25trade negotiator,
06:26and eventually
06:27pave the goodwill for President Donald Trump
06:30and President Xi Jinping
06:31to have a peace
06:32and very
06:35impressive breakthrough
06:37in their
06:39trade agreement
06:41in Busan,
06:42South Korea,
06:43at the APEC,
06:44Asia Pacific Economic
06:45Meeting,
06:46there is a continuity
06:47between ASEAN and APEC
06:49in that sense.
06:50So,
06:50those were the three major accomplishments.
06:52And of course,
06:54leading the way
06:55for ASEAN
06:56to navigate
06:57these sort of issues
06:58and situations
06:59is Malaysia
07:00as Chair of ASEAN.
07:02What do you think
07:03the extent to which
07:04Malaysia has played
07:05an effective role
07:06as Chair of ASEAN
07:07this year?
07:08I would definitely
07:10agree with that
07:11and maybe
07:12to build
07:13on
07:14what
07:15Dr. Kim
07:16just said,
07:18Malaysia managed
07:20to
07:21skillfully
07:23tow
07:24the proper line,
07:25the middle line,
07:27the kind of
07:27middle path
07:28and stay away
07:30from the
07:31big power rivalry
07:32or rather
07:34diffuse
07:34the existing tensions
07:36at least
07:37while it was
07:37the Chairman.
07:39On the one hand,
07:41it was ready
07:42to prove
07:43to the United States
07:45that it's
07:45capable of
07:47diversifying
07:48its interactions
07:49in particular
07:50via
07:51facilitating
07:53the meetings
07:54the summits
07:55like
07:55the first ever
07:57the second
07:58ASEAN GCC summit
07:59and the first ever
08:00ASEAN GCC
08:01China summit
08:02so it sent a strong
08:03signal
08:04to the
08:06Washington quarters
08:07that we are ready
08:08to diversify
08:09our ties
08:10and maybe
08:11there may be
08:12criticism
08:13that maybe
08:13nothing much
08:14comes out of it
08:15but the very fact
08:16that there is
08:17a motion
08:17towards that side
08:18in that direction
08:20I think it means
08:21a lot
08:22for the future.
08:23On the other hand,
08:24despite a lot
08:25of frustration
08:26and even anger
08:27coming at
08:29Donald Trump's
08:30administration
08:31due to tariffs
08:32we managed
08:33to masterfully
08:35show him
08:36the ASEAN
08:37hospitality
08:38and I think
08:40there is
08:40a longer bet
08:42behind this
08:43probably
08:45there is
08:46a wise
08:46understanding
08:47that this policy
08:48the current policy
08:50that frustrates
08:50people in ASEAN
08:52also so much
08:53will not outlast
08:54Donald Trump
08:54administration
08:55and that is
08:56bound to change
08:57in a few years time
08:59and again
09:02on the other hand
09:02we also managed
09:03to stay clear
09:05from choosing sides
09:09and opting
09:10for China
09:11for another extreme
09:12in this major
09:13power rivalry
09:14and we kept
09:16at ASEAN
09:17to remind
09:18China
09:19about our concerns
09:21vis-à-vis
09:22South China Sea
09:23so that was
09:25there too
09:25I think Malaysia
09:27did pretty well
09:28to show
09:28it's a neutral
09:30player
09:30and at the same
09:32time it minds
09:33its own interests
09:34I think based on
09:37numerous past
09:38interviews with
09:39Dr. Kim
09:39he'll probably
09:40most likely agree
09:41on how Malaysia
09:43has performed
09:43as chair of ASEAN
09:45but if I were
09:46to put on the hat
09:47of a devil's advocate
09:48here and ask
09:49Dr. Kim
09:50looking at
09:52Malaysia's performance
09:53as chair of ASEAN
09:54if perhaps
09:55we were to look
09:56at how
09:56Malaysia could have
09:58potentially improved
09:59in certain areas
10:00perhaps looking at
10:02say the Myanmar
10:03conflict
10:03in managing
10:04the Thailand
10:05Cambodia border
10:05dispute
10:06and also
10:06with the US
10:07tariffs
10:08I believe
10:09there was
10:09some criticism
10:10of course
10:10as to how
10:12ASEAN
10:12struggled to
10:13pose this
10:15united front
10:16with the US
10:17do you think
10:18there could have
10:18been any
10:18improvements
10:19Dr. Kim
10:20The likelihood
10:21of an improvement
10:22was not
10:23strong
10:24but in spite
10:26of what I said
10:26I think the
10:27Prime Minister
10:27I'm referring to
10:29Dr. Sri Anwar Ibrahim
10:30did his level best
10:32to have this kind
10:33of conversation
10:33in the piece
10:34and the conversation
10:37was actually
10:38rather long
10:38because the
10:39piece itself
10:41weighed
10:416,000 tons
10:42and the journey
10:44from KLIA
10:45to KLCC
10:46Convention Centre
10:47was a full
10:4840 minutes
10:49from the
10:50insider
10:50information
10:50that I
10:51got
10:51so
10:52Prime Minister
10:53Anwar managed
10:53to strike
10:54a strong
10:55personal
10:56bond
10:57with
10:57President Donald
10:59Trump
10:59during that
11:0040 minute
11:01journey
11:01that having
11:03been said
11:03Trump has
11:06a very fixed
11:07ideological
11:07worldview
11:08on the
11:08importance
11:09of tariff
11:10and it
11:10was not
11:11easy to
11:11make him
11:11budge
11:12in order
11:13to reduce
11:13it from
11:1424 maybe
11:15to the
11:15baseline
11:16tariff
11:17of 10%
11:18which is
11:18what Singapore
11:19enjoys
11:20so what
11:21we eventually
11:21got was
11:2219%
11:23in addition
11:24to which
11:24we also
11:25did not
11:25get an
11:26exemption
11:27on our
11:27semiconductors
11:28agreement
11:29that's why
11:31the fact
11:32that Malaysia
11:33is actually
11:34one of
11:34the leading
11:36providers of
11:36semiconductors
11:37to the
11:37United States
11:38South
11:38in fact
11:39we are
11:39the sixth
11:39strongest
11:41semiconductor
11:42supplier
11:44in the
11:45world
11:45but somehow
11:47President Donald
11:47Trump was
11:48not convinced
11:48that it
11:49was in
11:49the interest
11:49of the
11:50United States
11:51to actually
11:52hold Malaysia
11:53closer
11:54to its
11:56chest
11:57Dr. Julia
12:00I want to
12:00go back to
12:00what you
12:01said about
12:01how Malaysia
12:02effectively
12:03played this
12:04role in
12:04towing the
12:05middle path
12:06not exactly
12:07leaning towards
12:09any sides
12:09in particular
12:10in the
12:10great power
12:11rivalry
12:11what
12:13potentially
12:14complicated
12:15this
12:16dynamic
12:17balancing act
12:18that Malaysia
12:19had to
12:19perform
12:20was of course
12:20the conflict
12:21in Gaza
12:22because domestically
12:23Malaysia had to
12:24deal with
12:24the protests
12:26the demonstrations
12:27and Malaysia
12:28I think also
12:29did try its
12:30level best
12:30to voice out
12:32its concerns
12:33about the
12:34humanitarian
12:34crisis
12:35the genocide
12:35in Gaza
12:36internationally
12:37at the
12:38United Nations
12:38and what not
12:39how do you
12:40think this
12:41potentially
12:42complicated
12:43that situation
12:43and how
12:45Malaysia
12:46tried to
12:47sort of
12:48perform
12:49this balancing
12:50act
12:50yeah right
12:53the Prime
12:53Minister
12:54Ahmad
12:54Ibrahim
12:55spoke on
12:56the issue
12:57of Gaza
12:57on multiple
12:58occasions
12:59very energetically
13:00we had
13:01whole rallies
13:02here which
13:03were attended
13:03by so many
13:04people
13:05but I also
13:07think it was
13:09done skillfully
13:10in a sense
13:11that he
13:12and Malaysia
13:14as a whole
13:15managed to
13:15play the
13:16again a
13:17more neutral
13:18role
13:19in this capacity
13:20as ASEAN
13:21chairman
13:21and it was
13:22dividing
13:23between the two
13:24so even
13:24when we had
13:25the protests
13:26ongoing in
13:27Kuala Lumpur
13:27against
13:28President Donald
13:29Trump
13:29visiting us
13:30the statements
13:33were made
13:34and quite
13:34rightfully so
13:36that Malaysia
13:36is receiving
13:37the president
13:38of the United
13:38States
13:39in its capacity
13:40as of a
13:40chairman
13:41of ASEAN
13:42and not
13:43anything else
13:43I think
13:46it was a
13:46kind of an
13:47achievement
13:47that we still
13:48are discussing
13:49this in ASEAN
13:51the issue
13:51of Gaza
13:51has been
13:52discussed
13:53multiple
13:54platforms
13:54behind the
13:55closed doors
13:55as well
13:56even if
13:58we are not
13:58seeing some
13:59common statement
14:01because well
14:02it's a difficult
14:03topic
14:03some of the
14:04members of
14:05ASEAN
14:06have quite
14:06extensive
14:07economic
14:08and defense
14:09or security
14:10ties
14:11with Israel
14:12with the
14:12state of Israel
14:13so it would
14:15be quite hard
14:16to persuade
14:17them to
14:17change the
14:18line
14:18and for some
14:19in ASEAN
14:20it just seems
14:21as a very
14:21remote
14:22conflict
14:23so we had
14:24to balance
14:25and I think
14:25Malaysia has
14:26done it
14:26pretty well
14:27but my
14:30take is that
14:31still ASEAN
14:32in terms of
14:33these discussions
14:33has done
14:34much more
14:36than some
14:36other blocs
14:37can claim
14:38and even
14:39towards the
14:40second half
14:41of Malaysian
14:41chairmanship
14:42you could see
14:42that the
14:43discourse
14:45in even
14:46in countries
14:46like Singapore
14:48started to
14:48change
14:49in the
14:49political stage
14:50they started
14:51to discuss
14:51it quite publicly
14:52maybe we should
14:53change the
14:53line towards
14:54Israel
14:54I want to
14:56shift gears
14:57a little bit
14:58and talk
14:58about trade
14:58and the
14:59economy
15:00where we
15:00witnessed
15:01some progress
15:02in agreements
15:02and economic
15:03frameworks
15:04like we have
15:04the ASEAN
15:05Community Vision
15:062045
15:06that was
15:07launched
15:07this year
15:08we have
15:09the DEFA
15:09Digital Economic
15:10Framework
15:11as well
15:11ATIGA
15:12Free Trade
15:13or Goods
15:14and Trade
15:15Agreement
15:15AFIS
15:16on
15:17semiconductors
15:19Dr. Kim
15:20do you think
15:20ASEAN
15:21is on the
15:21right track
15:22towards
15:22deeper
15:23economic
15:23integration
15:24and addressing
15:25one of the
15:26biggest concerns
15:27to do with
15:28ASEAN
15:28market fragmentation
15:30So if we were
15:32to use the
15:33gold standards
15:33of the European
15:34Union
15:34for instance
15:35the intra-regional
15:36trade is at
15:3767%
15:38they have done
15:39well over the
15:39last 50 years
15:40or more
15:41now
15:42the same
15:43can also
15:43be said
15:44about
15:44the once
15:46North American
15:47Free Trade
15:48Agreement
15:48NAFTA
15:48which also
15:50reached
15:50an intra-regional
15:51trade threshold
15:52of
15:53at least
15:5467%
15:55at its
15:56height
15:56meanwhile
15:58ASEAN
15:59from 1970
15:59onwards
16:00has always
16:01hovered
16:02at about
16:0223%
16:03to 24%
16:04of intra-regional
16:05trade
16:06so that
16:07leaves a lot
16:07of room
16:08for
16:09expansion
16:10and improvement
16:11but as
16:13we know
16:14most of
16:14the economies
16:15in Southeast
16:16Asia
16:16are very
16:17complementary
16:18in nature
16:19or very
16:20similar
16:20in nature
16:21the things
16:21that they
16:21produce
16:22are primarily
16:22meant for
16:23the American
16:23consumer
16:24markets
16:25and somehow
16:26the chickens
16:28have come
16:28home to
16:29roost
16:29because
16:30now
16:31ASEAN
16:32finds itself
16:33completely
16:33vulnerable
16:34to American
16:34pressure
16:35that having
16:37been said
16:37in spite
16:39of
16:39the
16:40vulnerabilities
16:41that they
16:41felt
16:42they tried
16:43to enhance
16:44their own
16:44regional
16:45resilience
16:46by strengthening
16:47each and
16:48every document
16:49that has
16:49been in
16:50their dossier
16:50for the
16:51last 30
16:52years
16:53so what
16:53we saw
16:54when it
16:54comes to
16:55ATIGA
16:55when it
16:55comes to
16:56DFA
16:56they are
16:57not new
16:57they are
16:59actually
16:59all
16:59dossier
17:01all documents
17:02all free
17:03trade
17:03agreements
17:04that have
17:04been
17:05refreshed
17:05hence
17:06when you
17:06see the
17:07lights of
17:07ASEAN
17:08China
17:083.0
17:09is actually
17:10something
17:11that has
17:11undergone
17:12through a
17:12version of
17:131 and
17:132
17:14so
17:15within that
17:16context
17:17you see
17:17ASEAN
17:18trying
17:18its level
17:19best
17:19not to
17:20create
17:20the wheel
17:21but actually
17:22to dig
17:23deep into
17:23its reserves
17:24to strengthen
17:25itself
17:26regionally
17:27because
17:27it's now
17:28all about
17:29the region
17:30assisting
17:31and helping
17:32you
17:32and top
17:33of which
17:34I might
17:34say
17:34there was
17:35a
17:35MEDEKA
17:35declaration
17:36in and
17:37around
17:37August
17:382025
17:39where all
17:40the ministers
17:40of home
17:41affairs
17:41agreed to
17:42get rid
17:42of scams
17:44that are
17:44in Indochina
17:45or in
17:46different parts
17:47of Southeast
17:47Asia
17:47Dr. Julia
17:51your thoughts
17:51ASEAN
17:52is on
17:53its track
17:53towards
17:54becoming
17:54the fourth
17:54largest
17:55economic
17:55block
17:56in the
17:56world
17:56do you
17:57think
17:57that
17:57with
17:57these
17:58agreements
17:58it
17:59makes
18:00ASEAN
18:01on the
18:01right
18:01path
18:02or do
18:02you
18:02think
18:02that
18:03they're
18:03just
18:03blueprints
18:04with
18:04fancy
18:04names
18:05a little
18:07bit
18:07above
18:07maybe
18:09we
18:10shouldn't
18:10be
18:11too
18:11confident
18:12in
18:13what
18:14these
18:14agreements
18:14provide
18:15us
18:15with
18:16well
18:16especially
18:17if we
18:17talk
18:17about
18:17the
18:18ASEAN
18:20China
18:21free trade
18:22agreement
18:223.0
18:23yes
18:23there is
18:24expansion
18:24on
18:25digital
18:26trade
18:26cooperation
18:28in the
18:29area
18:29of
18:29digital
18:29trade
18:30and
18:30others
18:31however
18:32we
18:33also
18:33have
18:33a
18:33disruptive
18:34effect
18:35of
18:35the
18:36American
18:36tariffs
18:37and
18:38yet
18:39we
18:39do not
18:40know
18:40how
18:40it's
18:40going
18:40to
18:41go
18:41we
18:42missed
18:43an
18:43opportunity
18:43to
18:44get
18:44together
18:45as a
18:45block
18:46and
18:46call
18:46the
18:46United
18:47States
18:47on
18:47its
18:47bluff
18:48with
18:50regards
18:50to
18:50tariff
18:50and
18:51instead
18:51we
18:52chose
18:52to
18:52negotiate
18:53it
18:53on
18:53a
18:53bilateral
18:53basis
18:54to
18:56me
18:56that
18:56was
18:56a
18:56missed
18:57opportunity
18:57I'm
18:59not
18:59sure
19:00that
19:00we
19:00will
19:00see
19:00some
19:01sort
19:01of
19:02consolidation
19:02in
19:03the
19:03next
19:03year
19:04under
19:04the
19:04next
19:05chairman
19:05but
19:07also
19:07probably
19:08we
19:08should
19:09be
19:09shifting
19:09focus
19:10on
19:10not
19:12as
19:13much
19:13self-sufficiency
19:14but
19:15kind
19:15of
19:16aspiring
19:16for
19:17the
19:17idea
19:17of
19:17strategic
19:18autonomy
19:18within
19:19ASEAN
19:20itself
19:20ASEAN
19:21is a
19:21block
19:21and
19:22there
19:22is a
19:22huge
19:23potential
19:23but
19:24there
19:24is
19:24also
19:24a
19:24lot
19:25to
19:25be
19:25done
19:25looking
19:25at
19:26the
19:26internal
19:26market
19:27how much
19:27we
19:27actually
19:28trade
19:28with
19:28each
19:28other
19:29not
19:29with
19:29China
19:30China
19:30is
19:31our
19:31major
19:31trading
19:32partner
19:32for
19:32all
19:33of
19:33us
19:33that's
19:34very
19:34good
19:34but
19:35what
19:36are
19:36we
19:36doing
19:36inside
19:37of
19:37ourselves
19:37inside
19:38of
19:38the
19:38grouping
19:38and
19:39what
19:40do
19:40we
19:40produce
19:40and
19:42how
19:42are
19:42we
19:42capable
19:42of
19:43innovating
19:43that
19:44is
19:44yet
19:45to
19:46be
19:46developed
19:47you
19:48mentioned
19:48a little
19:48bit
19:48about
19:49next
19:49year
19:50whether
19:50this
19:51consolidating
19:51we'll
19:52be able
19:52to see
19:52next
19:53year
19:53but
19:53I
19:54think
19:54overall
19:55what
19:55do
19:55you
19:56think
19:56your
19:56outlook
19:56is
19:57for
19:582026
19:58in
19:59ASEAN
19:59can
20:00we
20:00expect
20:00the
20:01regional
20:01block
20:01to
20:01build
20:02on
20:02the
20:02sort
20:02of
20:02momentum
20:03that
20:03they've
20:03had
20:03this
20:04year
20:04it's
20:07hard
20:08to
20:08tell
20:08we
20:08do
20:09not
20:09looking
20:10at
20:10the
20:10history
20:10of
20:11how
20:12succession
20:14of
20:15ASEAN
20:15chairmanship
20:15has been
20:16going
20:16we
20:17are
20:18not
20:18to
20:18expect
20:18drastic
20:19changes
20:20yet
20:20under
20:21the
20:21chairmanship
20:21of
20:22the
20:22Philippines
20:23there
20:23might
20:24be
20:24some
20:25tensions
20:26and
20:26some
20:26pressures
20:27coming
20:27from
20:27the
20:27United
20:28States
20:28since
20:29it
20:29has
20:31Philippines
20:32as
20:32the
20:32major
20:33security
20:34partner
20:34in
20:34the
20:34region
20:35based
20:35on
20:35the
20:351951
20:36agreement
20:37to
20:38take
20:38even
20:39a
20:39stronger
20:39stance
20:40vis-a-vis
20:41China
20:41although
20:42the
20:42chairman
20:43of
20:43ASEAN
20:43shouldn't
20:44be
20:44doing
20:44it
20:44so
20:45on
20:45the
20:45issue
20:46of
20:46South
20:46China
20:47sea
20:47we
20:47could
20:47expect
20:48that
20:48probably
20:51we should
20:52watch
20:52what is
20:53going to
20:53happen
20:53between
20:54Thailand
20:54and
20:54Cambodia
20:55if
20:55they
20:56will
20:56be
20:56able
20:56to
20:56resolve
20:57the
20:57issue
20:57and
20:57we
20:58can
20:59see
20:59even
20:59now
21:00that
21:00the
21:00appetite
21:01for
21:01the
21:02foreign
21:02players
21:02to
21:03get
21:03into
21:03that
21:03scene
21:04is
21:04quite
21:05high
21:05so
21:06we
21:06shouldn't
21:07give
21:07a
21:07reason
21:07for
21:07that
21:08we
21:08should
21:08try
21:08and
21:09not
21:10provide
21:11reasons
21:11for
21:11that
21:11also
21:14the
21:14conflict
21:15in
21:15Myanmar
21:16if
21:17we
21:17are
21:17sticking
21:18with
21:18a
21:18five
21:18point
21:18consensus
21:19and
21:20probably
21:20not
21:21much
21:21is
21:22to
21:22be
21:22seen
21:22there
21:23but
21:23you
21:23can
21:23also
21:24have
21:24a lot
21:25of
21:25appetite
21:26for
21:26foreign
21:26intervention
21:27growing up
21:28there
21:28because
21:29ASEAN
21:29itself
21:31is a
21:31strategic
21:32outpost
21:33for the
21:33United
21:34States
21:34in
21:34particular
21:34if
21:35the
21:36conflict
21:37in
21:37Ukraine
21:37winds
21:38down
21:38and
21:39they
21:39would
21:39like
21:39to
21:40reorient
21:40their
21:41focus
21:41on
21:41China
21:42so
21:42ASEAN
21:43will
21:43prove
21:43strategic
21:44significance
21:44here
21:45so
21:45these
21:46vulnerable
21:46spots
21:47like
21:48Myanmar
21:48they
21:49provide
21:50just
21:50another
21:50reason
21:51for
21:51foreign
21:52intervention
21:52and
21:53as
21:53Dr.
21:53Kim
21:53just
21:54said
21:54that
21:54the
21:55huge
21:56story
21:56that
21:57we're
21:57watching
21:57now
21:57with
21:57the
21:58online
21:59scan
21:59centers
22:00but
22:00also
22:01according
22:01to
22:01the
22:02recent
22:02UNODC
22:03report
22:04that
22:04Myanmar
22:04surpassed
22:05Afghanistan
22:06in
22:06production
22:07of
22:07opium
22:08and
22:09that
22:09could
22:09provide
22:10well
22:10true
22:11that
22:11could
22:11also
22:12provide
22:12a
22:12pretext
22:13for
22:13foreign
22:13intervention
22:14while
22:15ASEAN
22:15is not
22:16really
22:16willing
22:17to
22:17break
22:17its
22:18principle
22:18of
22:19non-interference
22:19and
22:20finally
22:21ASEAN
22:21will
22:22probably
22:22have
22:22to
22:23deal
22:23with
22:23some
22:24level
22:25of
22:25natural
22:26disasters
22:26and
22:27humanitarian
22:27issues
22:28as we
22:28are already
22:29observing
22:29right now
22:30due to
22:31the
22:31weather
22:31Dr.
22:33Kim
22:33your
22:33outlook
22:34for
22:342026
22:35do
22:35you
22:35think
22:35it
22:35will
22:35be
22:35another
22:36big
22:36year
22:36for
22:36ASEAN
22:37next
22:37year
22:37unfortunately
22:38my
22:39outlook
22:39is
22:39not
22:39very
22:40pessimistic
22:40in
22:40light
22:41of
22:41what
22:41happened
22:41soon
22:42after
22:43the
22:43summit
22:44in
22:45Kuala Lumpur
22:45if we
22:46were to
22:46look
22:46at
22:46the
22:47climatic
22:48or
22:48seasonal
22:48patterns
22:49in the
22:52past few
22:52weeks
22:53it
22:53seems
22:53that
22:53as
22:54and
22:54when
22:54we
22:55converge
22:55in
22:56November
22:57and
22:58most
22:58of
22:58the
22:58events
22:59are
22:59usually
22:59it
23:01was
23:01an
23:01exception
23:01to
23:01have
23:02the
23:02ASEAN
23:02summit
23:03in
23:03October
23:03but
23:04most
23:05of
23:05them
23:05are
23:05usually
23:06in
23:06the
23:06early
23:06part
23:06of
23:07November
23:07if
23:08we
23:08were
23:08to
23:08go
23:08according
23:09to
23:09that
23:09pattern
23:10there
23:10is
23:10a
23:10huge
23:11likelihood
23:11that
23:11we
23:12might
23:12be
23:12buffeted
23:13or
23:13confronted
23:14with
23:14huge
23:15natural
23:16disasters
23:17such as
23:18immense
23:19amount
23:20of
23:20rain
23:20and
23:21all
23:21of
23:22which
23:22might
23:23actually
23:23derail
23:24the
23:24best
23:25plannings
23:25that
23:25the
23:27in fact
23:27coming
23:28back
23:28to
23:28the
23:28role
23:28of
23:29the
23:29Philippines
23:29as
23:30early
23:31as
23:32yesterday
23:33or
23:34maybe
23:35today
23:36there
23:36have
23:36been
23:36reports
23:37coming
23:37out
23:37from
23:37Manila
23:38that
23:38demonstrations
23:39are still
23:40ongoing
23:40that
23:41a lot
23:43of
23:43Filipinos
23:44are not
23:44very happy
23:45with the
23:46investigation
23:46that has
23:47been
23:47conducted
23:47by the
23:48MaKos
23:49administration
23:49and there
23:50are calls
23:51for his
23:51resignation
23:51so
23:52all
23:53these
23:53signs
23:53do not
23:54augur
23:54well
23:55for
23:55president
23:57who is
23:58expected
23:59to emulate
23:59all the
24:00achievements
24:00that have
24:01been
24:01accomplished
24:02by
24:02Malaysia
24:03or
24:04Prime Minister
24:04Dato Sri
24:05Anwar
24:05so I
24:06hope that
24:06he can
24:07remain in
24:07office
24:08because he's
24:08a good
24:08friend of
24:09Malaysia
24:09he's also
24:10a good
24:10friend of
24:10Prime Minister
24:11Dato Sri
24:11Anwar
24:12Ibrahim
24:12and I'm
24:13sure that
24:14mutual
24:14consultation
24:14will always
24:15be there
24:15but
24:16to the
24:17degree
24:17that
24:18the
24:19president
24:19of the
24:20Philippines
24:20cannot
24:20even
24:21remain
24:22firm
24:23in his
24:23own
24:23position
24:24and
24:24is
24:24currently
24:25under
24:25attack
24:26by
24:26his
24:26elder
24:26sister
24:27Imi
24:28Marcos
24:28if
24:29his
24:30position
24:30continues
24:31to
24:31wobble
24:32then
24:32it
24:33doesn't
24:33augur
24:33well
24:34for
24:34what
24:34is
24:35to
24:35come
24:35in
24:352026
24:36whether
24:37there
24:37is
24:37an
24:37issue
24:38on
24:38South
24:38China
24:38Sea
24:38or
24:39not
24:39I
24:40mean
24:41rather
24:41unprecedented
24:42I
24:42guess
24:42but
24:42I
24:43think
24:43overall
24:44what
24:44about
24:44some
24:45economic
24:46issues
24:46that
24:46we
24:47can
24:47expect
24:47tariffs
24:48I
24:49think
24:49are
24:49still
24:49unpredictable
24:51Dr.
24:51Kim
24:51what do
24:52you
24:52think
24:52on
24:52that
24:52front
24:53in
24:54terms
24:54of
24:54the
24:54global
24:54economy
24:55trade
24:55tensions
24:56and
24:56tariffs
24:56there's
24:57still
24:57a lot
24:57of
24:57uncertainty
24:58how do
24:59you
24:59think
24:59ASEAN
25:00will
25:00fare
25:00in
25:01this
25:01aspect
25:01well
25:03in
25:03terms
25:04of
25:04tariff
25:04there
25:04is
25:05always
25:05that
25:06aspect
25:07that
25:07is
25:07very
25:08incorrigible
25:08about
25:09President
25:09Donald
25:09Trump
25:10because
25:11he
25:11has
25:11already
25:11said
25:12that
25:12this
25:12is
25:12the
25:12most
25:12beautiful
25:13word
25:13in
25:13the
25:13English
25:14dictionary
25:14no
25:15one
25:16should
25:16expect
25:16President
25:17Donald
25:17Trump
25:17to
25:17suddenly
25:18have
25:19conversion
25:20not unlike
25:22the road
25:22to
25:22Damascus
25:23where he
25:24just
25:25get rid
25:25of
25:25tariffs
25:25and
25:26embrace
25:28the
25:29doctrine
25:30and the
25:30ethos
25:30of
25:31free
25:31trade
25:31in
25:32fact
25:33he
25:33mentioned
25:33something
25:34along
25:34the
25:34line
25:35that
25:35the
25:36income
25:36taxes
25:37in
25:37the
25:37United
25:37States
25:38can
25:38all
25:38be
25:38replaced
25:39by
25:39the
25:39tariffs
25:39that
25:40he
25:40can
25:40collect
25:40from
25:41the
25:41rest
25:41of
25:41the
25:41world
25:42so
25:42that's
25:43one
25:43idea
25:44a
25:45strange
25:45and funny
25:45idea
25:46that
25:46has
25:46been
25:46put
25:46up
25:47by
25:47President
25:47Donald
25:47Trump
25:48which
25:48also
25:48means
25:50as I
25:51mentioned
25:51before
25:51on
25:52the
25:52importance
25:53of
25:53tariff
25:53so
25:54ASEAN
25:55and
25:55the
25:55rest
25:56of
25:56the
25:56world
25:56will
25:57have
25:57to
25:57struggle
25:58and
25:58amber
25:59along
25:59on
26:00the
26:01importance
26:04of
26:05tariff
26:05to
26:06United
26:06States
26:07on
26:08the
26:08impact
26:08of
26:09tariff
26:09on
26:10the
26:10rest
26:10of
26:10the
26:10world
26:11in
26:12fact
26:12one
26:13of
26:14the
26:14things
26:14that
26:14we
26:14should
26:14remember
26:15is
26:15the
26:16simple
26:17reality
26:17that
26:17tariff
26:18is
26:18inflationary
26:19so
26:20whatever
26:21tariff
26:21that
26:22is
26:22imposed
26:22on
26:22the
26:23rest
26:23of
26:23the
26:24world
26:24is
26:24actually
26:25having
26:25repercussion
26:26on
26:26American
26:27economy
26:27itself
26:28and
26:28we
26:28are
26:28beginning
26:29to
26:29see
26:29that
26:29effect
26:30as
26:30we
26:30approach
26:30Christmas
26:31and
26:32consumer
26:33confidence
26:33and
26:34sentiments
26:34in
26:34United
26:35States
26:35itself
26:35are
26:36down
26:36by
26:37whole
26:37lot
26:37definitely
26:39a lot
26:39of
26:39uncertainties
26:40still
26:41to
26:41remain
26:41in
26:42the
26:42next
26:42year
26:43and
26:43definitely
26:43a lot
26:44to
26:44watch
26:44out
26:44for
26:44in
26:45ASEAN
26:46with
26:46domestically
26:47potentially
26:49some
26:49unprecedented
26:50for
26:50the
26:51Philippines
26:51as
26:51it
26:51takes
26:52over
26:52as
26:52Chair
26:52of
26:53ASEAN
26:53in
26:532026
26:54Thank
26:55you
26:55so
26:55much
26:55Dr.
26:55Kim
26:55and
26:56of
26:56course
26:56Dr.
26:56Julia
26:56for
26:56joining
26:57us
26:57we'll
26:58of
26:58course
26:58stay
26:59in
26:59touch
26:59for
26:59the
27:00next
27:00year
27:00as
27:00we
27:01continue
27:01to
27:02get
27:02your
27:02insights
27:03on
27:03these
27:04issues
27:04thank
27:04you
27:04so
27:05much
27:05to
27:05our
27:05guests
27:05today
27:06that
27:06is
27:06all
27:06on
27:06Awani
27:07Global
27:07this
27:07week
27:07with
27:07me
27:07Nala Huda
27:08we'll
27:08catch
27:08you
27:09another
27:09time
27:09you
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