Stay informed with the latest weather forecast video, covering rain patterns, temperature outlooks, and severe weather warnings. Updated every few days with expert analysis, from meteorologist Jane Bunn.
00:00Hello and welcome to this Victorian Jane's weather update for Friday.
00:03We have had the trough move on through, so the embedded thunderstorms are in that and the banned Apache rain has now cleared out.
00:11There are clearing skies across the state, but if you can see this speckled cloud that's down here through Tasmania, that's the cold outbreak.
00:19So yes, our temperatures are definitely reduced from what we saw yesterday, but it's not as freezing as what it is in Tasmania.
00:25The next series of showers and thunderstorms kicks off this afternoon, but that's a New South Wales feature, no more for Victoria.
00:31So that's where we are today. There's just the remains of that moving through. Light showers, hardly anything at all.
00:37So there's Friday, whereas there's all that activity brewing for the afternoon and evening well away from us here.
00:43Let's have a look at Saturday. Things are looking nice and clear. High pressure is out to the east, so temperatures start to warm towards the end of the day.
00:49We'll get increasing sunshine.
00:51Having a look at Sunday, the next surge of heat starts to come down in through here, but we do have a trough that is running in.
00:57We're looking at a surge of heat and then the potential for a band of rain, so let's watch this move through.
01:03Here is Sunday, just seeing it really along the coast later on in the day and in the evening.
01:08As you go into Monday, here is this band of rain that's fed by moisture from the western parts of the country.
01:13So that negative Indian Ocean dipole that feeds moisture in from the Indian Ocean, and this is the exact result of that.
01:20It is always there, it just needs to run into low pressure, and here is our low pressure that's actually taking a path across Victoria, so we're likely to see the rain.
01:29This is on Monday, less for the interior parts, more of a southwesterly and into western Gippsland part thing.
01:36So this is Monday at this stage, but it is not done.
01:39Here we move into Tuesday.
01:41This is coming through.
01:42Into Wednesday, this is coming through.
01:45And by Thursday, it has moved out.
01:47Now, I urge you to keep up to date on farm online weather.
01:50You've got access to these maps.
01:52Head into your particular spot and look at the maps, the forecast for you, and you can have a look day by day what is likely to happen.
01:58This here is next Wednesday, really, the crux of that moves through.
02:02The models don't have a complete handle on what that is saying at this stage because it's more than half a week away.
02:08As the period gets closer than different modelling, we'll start to come together and we'll get better confidence in what the path of that is.
02:15We know we've got the moisture.
02:16It's just all dependent on where the low pressure moves as to who gets the rain, so keep up to date with that.
02:22By next Thursday, it is pretty much all over.
02:24Friday, we're back to clear.
02:27But is that another one that is developing to our northwest?
02:29Yes, it is as we move into Saturday, so I'd keep an eye on that one too.
02:33Is that going to move through as we move through Sunday, so a full week and nearly a half away from now, but it could be a nice one-two punch of significant rain.
02:41At this stage, what might it add up to?
02:44Anything yellow, 25 to 50, 15 to 25.
02:47But have a look as we move through the inland parts, 10 to 15, even 5 to 10 up through here.
02:52So at this stage, it doesn't completely dissipate as you head through the inland areas.
02:57This, at this stage, is a system that should do good things for Victoria as a whole.
03:01But I always urge you to check the updates as we get closer to it and see if that is still on track, see if we're still in the right path for that coming through.
03:09All right, what might that mean for Melbourne as we go through?
03:11We've got a mix of sun and cloud today.
03:13Temperatures are down.
03:14It was 30 yesterday, about 20 to 21 as we move through the afternoon.
03:19Heading into Saturday, no more wet weather.
03:21Lots of sunshine, increasing sunshine as the day goes on.
03:25Temperatures spike again on Sunday, so back up to near 30 degrees.
03:28We'll have a gusty northly wind to bring that there.
03:30You don't get a temperature jump up 10 degrees at this time of year without it being blown here.
03:35So, yes, that does come with, it doesn't magically jump up.
03:38You've got to have the winds to actually bring it down here.
03:40So, yes, it is gusty during the day on Sunday.
03:43It is likely to stay dry during the day and into the evening on Sunday.
03:47The wet weather hits on Monday.
03:48You saw how it came in just at that coast and then came through during the day on Monday.
03:52So, for Melbourne, it's Monday that we see that.
03:55Now, this has currently got 2 millimetres across the weather models, but have a look at the days ahead.
04:00That's just the start of it.
04:01Later on Tuesday, 4 millimetres, 11 millimetres at this stage as we move through Wednesday.
04:06So, that's when we're likely to see it.
04:08Later Tuesday into Wednesday is potentially the heavier part of this, but we will still get some on Monday too.
04:15So, that's dropped temperatures very slowly.
04:18Once it clears out, that's when it goes down to our freezing conditions, which is what we can expect for the later part of next week.
04:24So, Monday, later Tuesday and on Wednesday is when we're likely at this stage to see the wet weather from that significant rain bag.
04:31As always, head to Farm Online Weather and do go have a look at the maps, check them out, see the updates as they come through and check if you're still in the path.
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