Stay informed with the latest weather forecast video, covering rain patterns, temperature outlooks, and severe weather warnings. Updated every few days with expert analysis, from meteorologist Jane Bunn.
00:00Hello and welcome to this Victorian James weather update for Monday. Welcome to summer. We have got a cold outbreak moving through. How can you tell? First of all, head outside and feel how chilly it is. But the speckled cloud we've got in through here, that is cold air. It is snowing up in the Alps and to lower levels in Tasmania. This year is going to work its way through New South Wales and up into Queensland. But if you're after heat, if you're after what we would like to think as typical summer conditions, they are coming, but we just need to wait a couple of days.
00:29So let's take a look. Here we have our blue lines. And by the end of Monday, that is just how far north this cold outbreak is working its way. So the heat wave and the fire danger they've had to our north, that comes to an end by later today. Here we do have all of these showers passing through. So Monday is our wet day. After this, we're going to see the pattern change a little bit. Every time we've had a system move through, it's brought some significant rain because it's had a connection up to tropical moisture. After this, we're not likely to see that again for a little while.
00:57After today, there is not a lot of wet weather in the outlook. And it's likely to be the first one, maybe two weeks of December that are on the dry side.
01:06All right. So here we have by the end of Monday, by the end of Tuesday, high pressure is in through here. This is just the leftovers. They're fairly early, contracting to the south and then clearing out.
01:15By the end of Wednesday, high pressure out in through here. Haven't seen that for a while. Here's our red lines.
01:20So that is warmer air that is working its way down into the southeast. It is here for Wednesday. It is here for Thursday. And by the end of Thursday, here is the trough line running in through there.
01:31So that is the cool change and where it is up to by the end of Thursday. So it's here for two days only. All right. So Wednesday and Thursday, that's our jump up in temperatures.
01:40The change with this one, look how much drier it is. There's hardly anything there. Let me just turn this on. That is zero to one millimetre.
01:47So it really doesn't bring a lot as it comes through. We're back to fairly dry conditions.
01:52Let's have a look at Friday. Hardly anything. The trough is now running in through here. So it's coming backwards.
01:57So we've got all of that warmth still in the northeastern parts of the state, but the rest are on the cooler side of that trough.
02:03So there's Friday. And what do you know? Here's our next cold outbreak that is heading our way. It's here by Saturday night.
02:10So we're likely to see wet weather jump up around the east in the alpine areas here.
02:15Otherwise, it doesn't really add up to very much. Not a significant rain outbreak like we've seen in the past ones.
02:21What we are going to feel is a bit of chill in the air by Saturday night.
02:24So Saturday during much of the day, OK, then this comes in at night.
02:27So there's Saturday. And then into Sunday, it's not a lot of wet weather.
02:31Now, the next high pressure system comes in. And so Sunday, then into Monday and next Tuesday and Wednesday are looking OK as well.
02:38So we're just in mild conditions with that high sitting over the top.
02:41What does that add up to? All of this here is today. It's Monday.
02:44Not a lot for the rest of that week. So when I have another look at this on Thursday or Friday, I'd expect these to be right down.
02:51So most of this weather is actually during the day, today on Monday, and then things taper off.
02:56All right, let's have a look at Melbourne 15. This is what we're starting the first day of summer.
03:02We're looking at lots of showers passing through. There is a risk of thunderstorms in there and it may bring some wintry hail.
03:08Lovely. We are on a warming trend. So tomorrow, all the showers clear out during the morning.
03:14It should be fairly dry by the afternoon. Wednesday, temperatures jump up as our winds turn northerly.
03:19Lots of sunshine. We nearly reach 30 degrees.
03:21It's 33, maybe 34 as we go through the day on Thursday.
03:25The cool change, it's not by 3 p.m. That's a gusting northerly.
03:28It'll come through in the late afternoon or early evening.
03:32Temperatures do go back down by Friday, but there's hardly any wet weather with it.
03:36So I'll jump up a little bit on Saturday ahead of that later change.
03:39So back down to 19 as we go through Sunday.
03:42But then from Monday onwards, it is looking fairly mild and fairly nice.
03:46As always, head to Final Moon Weather for the latest.
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