00:00A lot of us enjoy warm and sunny weather in the summer, but if you're not enjoying the
00:05extreme values of heat and humidity that we've got this week, well, you'll be pleased to
00:10hear the details in this 10-day trend, because a big change is on the way.
00:15Just to illustrate that change, here's a snapshot of Thursday.
00:18We've got the jet stream dipping well to the south, out to the west of the UK, and then
00:22rising to the north of the UK, allowing this intense area of high pressure to build.
00:26And that's what's caused this current heat wave, got this sinking air under this intense
00:30area of high pressure.
00:32Temperatures of 42, 43 Celsius have been observed across France.
00:36Now we're seeing record breaking temperatures across the UK under this vast dome of heat.
00:42So that's Thursday's forecast, but by Sunday it looks somewhat different.
00:48Jet stream now firmly back in control of the weather, sending low pressure systems in from
00:52the Atlantic, bringing back a return to much cooler weather, but also much more changeable
00:58weather through the weekend and into next week.
01:01And here's a look at the temperatures on Sunday.
01:04Much more reasonable values for the time of year across the UK.
01:08Still above average in places, but nowhere near as above average as the next few days.
01:14And I'm just going to talk a little bit about the next few days because, of course, that's
01:17the really important part of the forecast at the moment.
01:19But there are more details on the current warnings elsewhere on the Metalf's YouTube channel
01:24and, of course, other social media channels, the website and the app.
01:27But just to summarise, Thursday's temperatures likely to be higher again compared with Wednesday.
01:34We're talking about the hot spot being just to the west of London, down towards the south
01:38coast, south and east Wales, west Midlands.
01:41That's where temperatures are likely to reach the mid-30s widely, perhaps up to 38 or even
01:4739 Celsius.
01:49Now, if 39 Celsius is recorded, that would make it the second hottest day on record in
01:54the UK.
01:5538 Celsius is recorded.
01:56It's still in the top five and still hotter than any day of the 20th century.
02:02Further north, it's also relatively warm and hot across parts of northern England into
02:07Northern Ireland and Scotland.
02:08We're talking about temperatures reaching the high 20s widely in southern Scotland, parts
02:13of Northern Ireland.
02:14It's freshest for the north of Scotland, where there will be some wetter weather at times
02:20through Thursday.
02:21But elsewhere across the UK, that's strong sunshine allowing temperatures to rise quickly through
02:25the day.
02:26And it's not just about the daytime temperatures.
02:30Of course, a lot of people go on holiday and enjoy those kinds of temperatures with air
02:34conditioned rooms and sitting by the pool all day in countries that are adapted for that
02:39level of heat.
02:40But in the UK, well, it feels somewhat different, especially when you take into account the humidity,
02:47which is much higher compared with the record breaking day, 40 Celsius day back in July 2022.
02:53So in many ways, the heat index is much higher compared with that day and more widely high across
02:59many central and southern parts of the UK.
03:01So it's the heat index that we're most concerned about.
03:03It's that level of heat and humidity combined that can cause so many severe impacts.
03:08This is, of course, warnings of impacts, not warnings of specific temperatures.
03:13So, amber warning in force for Thursday and Wednesday across many central and southern parts
03:18of the UK.
03:18But this red warning is where the highest impacts are most likely.
03:22And what kinds of impacts are we talking about?
03:24Population-wide, not just vulnerable people, population-wide health-related impacts.
03:30And also the risk of disruption to power networks and transport.
03:34So, yes, take these warnings seriously.
03:36Take these temperatures seriously.
03:37They're accompanied by high humidities and an infrastructure that simply isn't built to
03:42deal with this kind of weather, unlike other countries.
03:44These, further north across the UK, not so many issues, although for northern Scotland,
03:49we will have some wet weather moving in during Thursday morning.
03:52And it's a warm start for all of us.
03:54It's not just the daytime temperatures to be concerned about.
03:56It's those overnight temperatures, meaning that overnight buildings and homes won't get
04:00a chance to cool down.
04:02Likewise, we won't be able to cool down so much because of the high humidities.
04:05Here are the temperatures again on Thursday afternoon.
04:08Really quite remarkable values for the time of year, for any time of year, really, in
04:13the UK.
04:14And that heat and humidity could spark some really lively thunderstorms down towards the
04:18south and southwest later Thursday.
04:20We're talking about frequent lightning, torrential rainfall, the risk of very gusty winds,
04:2560, 65-mile-per-hour wind gusts accompanying these storms as they move across southern and
04:30southwestern areas from northern France.
04:32And we're going to see significant changes in temperature as these storms move through.
04:38The north of Scotland also affected by some thundery rain later Thursday.
04:42By the time we get to Friday, those outbreaks of at times heavy rain affecting parts of Scotland
04:46and Northern Ireland.
04:47So some wet weather around first thing.
04:49A few thunderstorms clearing elsewhere.
04:51But for many parts of England and Wales, it's another largely sunny but breezier day towards
04:56the west.
04:57And with a bit more cloud around, also a cooler feel in the west.
05:03So temperatures starting to come down across Wales and the southwest of England, whilst they
05:08stay elevated towards central and eastern parts of England.
05:12And we're talking about, again, mid to high 30s, 38 Celsius, still possibility in the east
05:17of England on Friday afternoon.
05:19Cooler for Scotland and Northern Ireland compared with Thursday.
05:22Still a humid feel for many of us and still some heavy rain around.
05:26Some showers developing through the day as the heat and humidity builds.
05:30The amber warning on Friday, more confined to central and eastern parts of England.
05:35And then as we go into Saturday, it's still a very warm start to the day across eastern
05:39and southeastern parts of the country.
05:40Feeling fresher further west.
05:42Some showers are affecting parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
05:45A brisk breeze and a lot more cloud around.
05:48And that breeze coming in from the southwest will certainly make it feel a little fresher in
05:52the north and west on Saturday compared with further east.
05:56Because actually in the east, it is another hot day.
06:00And temperature wise, we're looking at still 32 to 33 Celsius across parts of southeast
06:05England and East Anglia.
06:07Here in any normal summer, that would be considered a particularly hot day.
06:11But not quite as hot as some of the other days we're expecting this week.
06:16We're still up into the mid to high 20s further west, even if it is starting to feel fresher.
06:20The amber extreme heat warning still in force on Saturday across the east of England.
06:26And that's because of the day by day cumulative effects of the heat.
06:30The fact that these buildings are going to stay so warm, not necessarily because of the
06:34actual temperatures we're expecting on Saturday.
06:36High for the time of year, though they are.
06:39Sunday is the day that the cooler and more changeable weather spreads to virtually all parts.
06:45We're talking about a cloudy day, breezy in places, especially towards the northwest.
06:50That breeze shifting to more of a westerly direction.
06:52Bright spells and showers for many.
06:54Most frequent showers the northwest of Scotland, Northern Ireland.
06:57Fewer showers across central and southeastern parts.
07:00So actually a fine summer's day for many parts of England and Wales, even if we've lost the heat and
07:06humidity.
07:06Or especially because we've lost the heat and humidity, depending on your point of view.
07:1027 Celsius in the southeast.
07:13High teens, low 20s for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, Wales and the west of England.
07:19So feeling much more comfortable.
07:21And finally buildings, people, be able to become more comfortable and more, I should say, start to cool down properly.
07:31That's what I'm trying to get at here.
07:32And that's because the jet stream is back in charge of the weather.
07:36Here it is on Monday afternoon.
07:38We've got the jet stream swinging from the Atlantic.
07:40You can see it's got a bit more oomph to it across the mid-Atlantic.
07:43It's picking up the next area of low pressure.
07:46So although it's this low that brings in the fresher air, we've got more lows lined up to come in
07:51for next week.
07:52And this basically summarizes the output from many different computer model simulations
07:57and shows the most likely weather pattern for Tuesday, the last day of June.
08:01High pressure near the Azores, trying to extend to the southwest, but not quite making it.
08:07We've got low pressure coming in across northern Scotland and Iceland to bring some outbreaks of rain.
08:13Brisk breeze at times, followed by showers.
08:16A very changeable scene for Tuesday, the 30th of June, Wednesday, the 1st of July.
08:22Again, the most likely pattern.
08:23We've got this extension of the Azores Ridge just trying to bring something a bit more settled into the south,
08:28but not quite managing it because low pressure will want to bring outbreaks of rain and a brisk breeze into
08:34the northwest.
08:35So a real northwest-southeast gradient in the weather through next week.
08:41A much more typical setup for the summer, in fact, for the UK.
08:46Changeable, yes.
08:46There'll be some rain at times.
08:47There'll be some showers.
08:48Nothing that looks desperately unsettled, but certainly no sign of the hot and sunny weather returning widely.
08:55In fact, temperatures will be dipping back to around average for the time of year.
08:59This, for Friday, the 3rd of July, sums it up.
09:02The top three most likely weather patterns for that day.
09:06And they are all saying the same sort of thing.
09:08High pressure trying to nudge in from the southwest, but low pressure always close to the north of the UK.
09:14And temperatures, as a result, around, if not below average for the time of year.
09:19So we're back to business as usual through next week.
09:24But several more days of very hot weather to come and that heat clinging on for the longest in the
09:31east of England.
09:32So make sure you stay up to date with all the latest forecast and messages.
09:35We'll keep you updated right here on our YouTube channel.
09:38Bye-bye.
09:39Bye-bye.
09:39Bye-bye.
09:39Bye-bye.
09:39Bye-bye.
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