00:00Is it going to get any warmer over the next couple of weeks? Well, let's find out. Welcome to our
00:05latest 10 day trend. We're going to take a closer look at the weather patterns for the next 10 days
00:11and what that means for our weather. So first of all, we'll look at the jet stream, a key driver
00:16in the UK's weather. And over the next few days into the weekend, we've got a very amplified pattern in
00:23our jet stream. You'll notice as time goes on towards the weekend, we continue to see this amplification of the
00:28jet stream up towards
00:29the north and west of the UK. Now, what that means is that we will continue to see low pressure
00:36systems driven up to the north and west of the UK. Meanwhile, high pressure is actually set to dominate from
00:43the south and west. And this will spread its influence towards the UK on and off throughout the next few
00:49days. High pressure means drier weather means sinking air. So drier weather, whereas low pressure brings wetter weather. Now, as
00:57those low pressure systems will push up
00:59up to the north and west of the UK. That does mean that we will see weather systems when they
01:04do come in, come in from the north and west. And that is a cold direction. And we are not
01:09expecting very much in the way of change in the wind direction throughout the next few days, rest of this
01:15week and into the weekend. So for the short term, it is expected to remain a little bit chilly for
01:22the time of year. As we head into Thursday, we are expecting a pretty fine start to the day, particularly
01:28across southern and
01:29eastern areas. A weather front does push in from the north and west, though, of course, into the afternoon. Now,
01:36ahead of that, plenty of sunshine, the winds will be a little bit lighter. So it's not going to feel
01:39quite as cold, but still a little disappointing for the time of year, perhaps a frosty start to the day
01:45for some of us too.
01:46Then that weather front pushes further south and eastwards throughout Thursday into Friday morning. We could see some very gusty
01:53winds around this weather front as well. So that's one to keep an eye on.
01:57Where we continue to see the cloud and rain, a relatively mild night, but where skies remain clear, again, a
02:03touch of frost is possible across more northern and in fact southern areas.
02:07So far south east could see temperatures below zero in rural areas in particular to start Friday.
02:14Then Friday brings more in the way of rain to southern areas. We've got slightly milder air in around this
02:20area of rain, so it's not going to feel quite as cold.
02:23We lose those northwesterly winds just for a time, but definitely a damper day across southern areas.
02:29You can see those winds as well strengthening around that area of rain.
02:33So a bit of an unsettled spell to push through, though the rain doesn't actually look particularly heavy.
02:38Then once that rain clears through, we're back into that colder air for more northern areas, northern Ireland, much of
02:44Scotland as well.
02:45So it will start to feel cooler as the day goes on.
02:48And you'll notice there's some snow again on the graphics here.
02:51So there is a risk of snow and sleet showers mainly across high ground, but we could see some flurries
02:57to lower levels from time to time by Friday and over the weekend as well.
03:02Friday night brings the prospect of showers most dominant across more northwestern areas, more southeastern areas.
03:09Many central areas of England, in fact, staying relatively dry.
03:13Again, a cold start to the day on Saturday, a cold start to the weekend, in fact.
03:18And when we do see any showers across southwestern areas, parts of Wales could see a dusting of snow over
03:23the high ground.
03:25And Scotland, those snow showers becoming slightly more dominant into the weekend as well.
03:30As with the nature of showers, we can't predict exactly where they will fall, but it's worth noting there is
03:35a risk through Saturday morning.
03:37But I'm going to be cold, though.
03:38As you can see, there's colder air in situ through Saturday, but high pressure generally dominating on Saturday.
03:44So the better day of the weekend for sure.
03:47Then into Sunday, the next weather front moves in.
03:50Again, it brings a slice of mild air coming up from the mid-Atlantic.
03:54It's not going to last all that long.
03:56You can see around these areas of low pressure, we'll continue to see that cold air coming in from the
04:00northwest.
04:01So as long as our weather systems come in from the northwest, we're never going to be too far from
04:06this colder air.
04:07So it's really going to be a mix, a bit of back and forth between these slightly milder, slightly colder
04:12conditions through the next week or so.
04:14So for Saturday, the better day of the weekend, a day of sunshine and showers, particularly across northern areas.
04:22Many southern areas remaining largely dry through the day.
04:25Temperatures, once again, a touch below average, 11 at best.
04:30But in the far south, it won't feel too bad in any sheltered sunshine.
04:34I think that's where the winds will be the lightest.
04:36Again, a risk of snow, hail and sleet showers further north.
04:41So a bit of an unsettled afternoon across more northern areas.
04:44And then Sunday, that weather front pushes in.
04:46So I think more predominantly a wetter day on Sunday.
04:49Again, this weather front could bring some schooly, gusty winds around the main body of the weather front.
04:56You can see those winds switching direction quite suddenly.
04:58And I think that's where we could see a real gust strengthening in the winds.
05:03Milder, though, you'll notice the temperatures.
05:05We've got 12, 13 degrees, but it's going to be very little in the way of sunshine, unfortunately.
05:10The colder air is bringing the sunnier weather at the moment.
05:14We can't have both just yet.
05:16But our time will come as we head towards the latter part of spring.
05:20Then Sunday into Monday, again, we've got this colder air pushing through.
05:24That weather front sinks through.
05:25High pressure dominating into Monday morning.
05:27So likely another cold start to the day, a risk of frost on Monday morning.
05:31And then this weather front pushes up from the north and west, introducing milder air once again.
05:37It's an incredibly repetitive pattern through the next few days or so.
05:42And this will thicken cloud through the afternoon on Sunday, bring some rain into Monday evening.
05:48And by Tuesday, we could see more of that rain.
05:51Then what's the most likely pattern by the Tuesday, the 31st of March, the final day of March?
05:57We're moving into April next week.
05:58Well, the most likely pattern is for a pretty similar thing to carry on, really.
06:03High pressure continuing to dominate across more southwestern areas.
06:07This is where the high pressure is likely to be situated.
06:09But there is a chance it starts to shift position a little bit as well.
06:14We've got pretty equal weighting as well between these other two chances as well.
06:18We've got high pressure potentially a little bit more centred across the UK or perhaps a little bit further south
06:24as well.
06:25And in this situation, that would allow wetter weather to push in to more northwestern areas.
06:31So there is a bit of uncertainty in exactly the position of the high pressure by the time we get
06:36to Tuesday.
06:38And that uncertainty does continue.
06:40However, the most likely situation is for that high pressure to continue to move its journey slightly more centred towards
06:47the UK.
06:48And you can see with the browns on this map, that shows where we've got drier than average weather basically
06:53for the time of year.
06:55We've also got a 16% chance that much of the UK is in that drier weather, 18% chance
07:00as well here.
07:01So all of those together giving a good chance of high pressure dominating our weather.
07:07Now, high pressure brings sinking air, drier than average weather as well.
07:12By Thursday, a very similar pattern as well.
07:16We're into the 2nd of April here.
07:18So high pressure slightly moving further north.
07:20So that means that weather fronts, when they do move in, would topple really quite far to the north of
07:25the UK,
07:26perhaps affecting mainly more northeastern areas of Scotland, perhaps toppling further round to the east.
07:32So that would mean more northwestern areas that will be bearing the brunt of the wetter weather over the next
07:37few days
07:37could start to see some of that dry weather dominating.
07:42And then beyond that, of course, we're approaching Easter.
07:44By the time we get to the end of next week, we've got the Easter bank holiday approaching.
07:49Well, this is the probability plot for the next two weeks.
07:53And you can see here that we've got those blues, that low pressure moving in from the north and west,
08:00becoming less likely from the middle of next week.
08:03And the high pressure becoming more dominant, becoming more likely.
08:08It's not to say there's no chance of any of that low pressure, those low pressures becoming dominant.
08:13In fact, there's a chance we could see more southwesterly weather coming in.
08:17So we're often going to hold on to that westerly component, that mobile setup in weather coming in from the
08:24Atlantic from time to time.
08:25I don't think we're going to see a really long-lived high pressure spell just yet.
08:30But it's certainly looking more likely as we approach the Easter weekend that we could see more widely dry weather
08:36for a few days or so.
08:39Now, does that mean it's going to be really warm?
08:41Well, unfortunately, that's where the greatest uncertainty lies at this stage.
08:47These are the meteograms.
08:48The temperature changes over the next two weeks for the maximum temperature compared to average for the next two weeks.
08:56We've got for Edinburgh and for London here.
08:59London's at the bottom, Edinburgh at the top.
09:02Now, it's colder than average at the moment into the weekend remains colder than average.
09:07But as we get that high pressure becoming more dominant, it's quite likely to get a bit warmer into the
09:12start of next week.
09:14And then you'll notice there's quite a big spread as we head through the next two weeks between the bottom
09:21temperature and the top temperature in that spread of solutions.
09:24This comes from the ensemble output.
09:26So it's a probability of the temperature through the next two weeks for these two locations.
09:33Now, the middle of the middle ground sort of sits around average.
09:37So it's most likely to be sort of around average.
09:40Not too bad.
09:41It's moving into April where days are getting longer as well.
09:45But there is a chance that we continue to hold on to this cold weather at times.
09:49And as long as high pressure is only really coming up from the south and west, we could be quite
09:53close to that cold air at any time, really.
09:56So it could move in.
09:57So it's not a dead set certain that it's going to get warmer more consistently over the next two weeks.
10:03But it does look like it is going to get drier as we head towards that Easter bank holiday weekend.
10:09And the first week of April is looking relatively settled quite widely.
10:14And with days getting longer, the clocks going forward this weekend, there'll be more opportunity to enjoy any sunshine, which
10:21is good news, I hope.
10:23So thank you very much for joining me.
10:25Make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel if you'd like to follow us for any more content.
10:29And I'll see you again soon.
10:30Bye-bye.
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