00:00Hello. After such a wet start to the year for some of us and a lot of cloud around as
00:06well,
00:06it's quite nice to be doing a 10-day trend that's dominated by dry weather and there will be some
00:11sunshine to talk about as well. Now, the change has already started. For most of this year,
00:16the jet has been south-shifted, generating low-pressure systems and quite a bit of rain.
00:21It's now reverted back to a more traditional position for this time of year, taking low-pressure
00:26systems up across Iceland and these weather fronts trying to make inroads, but we've got high
00:30pressure blocking things again. Unlike most of this year, though, where the high has been sitting
00:35across Scandinavia, this one's a little bit further south and it is influencing our weather a little
00:40more, keeping things, as I say, largely dry. This is the rainfall accumulations over the next four or
00:46five days and you can see the rain is going to be mostly focused in western Scotland. Parts of
00:51Northern Ireland will see some and much of England and Wales, the rain is going to be very patchy in
00:56this pale blue colour, suggesting less than 0.1 millimetres over the whole four or five days and
01:04many places won't even see that. So, yes, a lot of dry weather to be had away from the northwest
01:09thanks to high pressure. That's not the only thing with the high pressure sitting here and the winds
01:14going clockwise around high pressure. It's drawing up some dust from the Sahara, yes, but also
01:21some warmer air. And that warmer air wafting its way in will allow the temperatures probably to
01:27peak on Thursday across eastern England, getting up to 18, maybe 19 degrees Celsius in a few places
01:34and that warmth extending into eastern Scotland as well with that southerly breeze. But notice it's
01:40not warm everywhere, just eight or nine on the west coast of Scotland. The wind's in a different
01:44direction because we've got a weather front dangled in here, which will be bringing cloud and outbreaks
01:49of rain. And as that weather front pushes against the higher pressure, well, it will steadily fizzle
01:54out as we go into Friday. It could generate a little bit of snow over the tops of the mountains,
01:58nothing unusual about that in March. But notice how that weather front fizzles out, but it does
02:02introduce more cloud and we've switched the wind direction now, more coming down from the north.
02:07So cooler air becoming more widespread by the time we get to Friday. So look at those numbers across
02:13these central parts temperatures only in single figures, having been in the low teens or even mid-teens
02:18on Thursday. Another way to look at that change is to show the temperatures compared to average on
02:23Thursday, well above. But look at that, that cooler air pushing in as we go through Friday. So by Friday,
02:29particularly over northern England and Wales, temperatures significantly below the average,
02:34still hanging on to some milder air across the far southeast. Okay, what goes on beyond that and into
02:40the weekend? Well, high pressure builds back in behind that weakening weather front for Saturday. And again,
02:47with the winds going clockwise, that reintroduces more of a southerly flow across the south. And
02:51there may be one or two showers here and there, but generally speaking, this high pressure will
02:56control our weather through the weekend. Again, a weather front tries to push in, but notice it
03:00doesn't make quite as much progress. So although there'll be some showery rain in the northwest,
03:05many places staying dry. And with the southerly winds back in, it is going to be mild, particularly
03:10where we see some sunshine. Bit of a question mark about where this low pressure system develops.
03:16It's a waving weather front, which always gives us meteorologists a few headaches. But where that
03:21sits is open to question, particularly as we head into the early part of next week. More on that in
03:26a
03:27moment. But generally, the weekend dominated by high pressure, generating a lot of dry weather,
03:32and there will be some sunshine. But there's also going to be quite a bit of mist and low cloud
03:37around
03:37too. Now, this is showing the chance of seeing low cloud on Saturday morning with these eastern parts
03:45of England and parts of the south most likely to see it. But by the time we jump forward to
03:49Sunday,
03:50well, there's an increasing signal, increasing chance of seeing a mist and low cloud, certainly
03:56in the mornings across eastern parts of England and parts of the south and parts of Wales as well.
04:01So that's just telling us that it could be quite cloudy in places through the weekend.
04:05This time of year, there is a bit of power in the sun to get rid of that, but it
04:09might take a while
04:11to clear. So that's probably the biggest question mark about the weekend. How much cloud are we going
04:16to see? With high pressure in control, certainly away from the northwest, most places will be dry
04:20this weekend. And with that southerly flow, it is going to feel quite, probably quite warm when the
04:26sun is out. But that's the big question mark. Will that mist and low cloud stick around and where is
04:32it
04:32going to be? But a stronger signal for it certainly on Sunday morning compared to Saturday morning.
04:37How about as we head into next week? Well, by then, the high has started to edge away, still influencing
04:41things as we go through Sunday night and Monday. Talked about this little area of low pressure
04:45earlier and just where that is going to sit, how it's going to form and how it's going to push
04:50these
04:50weather fronts in, if at all. And that's the biggest uncertainty, perhaps, as we head into the
04:55medium range forecast. The Met Office model has that low just sitting down to the south of the
05:01Republic of Ireland. This is the European model, and it has the low in a slightly different place.
05:05It's all got things just shifted a little bit further north. So a bit of a question mark about
05:10that. And why is there this question mark, that difference between the two? Well, what the chief
05:16meteorologists and deputy chief meteorologists like to do is then analyze where these differences
05:21could have come from. So if we rewind the clock and see where that low kind of generates from,
05:27it's all tied in to the jet stream and this little dip in it, this little trough coming out of
05:32Canada
05:33on Friday. Quite a powerful jet stream developing here. So again, just a subtle change will make
05:40quite a big difference. And then we can compare the Met Office model to the ECMWF model, the European
05:47model. This isn't comparing the surface pressure. This is at 500 hectopascals, but basically the blues
05:53and the greens are showing us where there is a difference. Might be a bit tricky to pick out,
05:58but I'll just zoom in a little bit and show this is now the eastern side of Canada. And you
06:02can see
06:03this little pocket here of the yellows, even oranges, suggesting there's quite a big difference
06:08between the Met Office model and the European model in that area on Friday. And that's important
06:14because as it moves across the Atlantic, that trough will be responsible for developing that little area
06:21of low pressure. So a bit of uncertainty in that kind of early medium range period can lead to more
06:28uncertainty in the position of that low and how it affects our weather into the early part of next
06:32week. So that is one question mark. But beyond that, the weather patterns look fairly, fairly much
06:39in agreement as we go through next week. And that is, we're going to have some kind of setup with
06:44high pressure sitting to the south and eastern low pressure sitting somewhere to the north and to the
06:49west. This is the probability plot, the different flavors of weather as we go through time here
06:55along the bottom. And you can see as we go through next week, that paler blue, that is the dominant
07:00color. That's the most likely setup through Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and even beyond, which is a
07:07southwesterly dominated flow. When you've got a southwesterly flow, that's because you've got high
07:11pressure sitting to the southeast, low pressure sitting to the north and west. Just draw your attention
07:16to the fact that these darker blues become a bit more prevalent as we head towards the end of this
07:2210-day trend period, the back end of next week, which is more unsettled weather with low pressures
07:28more likely to be swinging in across the UK. Not a guarantee, still less than 50% in that setup,
07:34but
07:34just a hint there that we are more likely to see that more changeable picture at the end of next
07:40week.
07:40So certainly for the start of next week, this is the most likely setup with high pressure sitting to
07:45the east of us. Low pressure sitting somewhere up to the northwest. And the flow, the winds coming in
07:50from the southwest, that's where the map is orange, suggesting temperatures are going to be above the
07:54average for the time of year. And it's a very similar setup. In fact, it's the same setup most
07:59likely on Tuesday, even higher percentage chance. And still, even into Wednesday, pretty high chance
08:04that this unbiased southwesterly, where it's a balance between high and low pressure, but the flow
08:09coming up from the southwest is the most likely. And even the second and third most likely, although subtly
08:14different, generally have the same weather patterns with high sitting somewhere to the east of us, low
08:18somewhere to the west. So we're pretty confident that that will be the setup, but which is dominant
08:24will kind of dictate what kind of flavour of weather we have. Beyond that, for Thursday and Friday,
08:32the most likely pressure pattern has that low closer, suggesting low pressures are more likely to be
08:37coming in. Still with the southwesterly flow, so still temperatures above average mostly, but lower
08:43pressure closer by likely to generate a little bit more in the way of rain. So all we can say
08:48about
08:48next week is it's likely to be staying fairly mild with temperatures by day around or a bit above
08:53average. The largely dry conditions certainly for the first half of the week across southern and eastern
08:57parts of the UK, but an increasing probability towards the back end of the week that it will turn a
09:03little bit wetter for all of us. As always, with these 10-day trend projections, that's all they are,
09:11just projections giving you an idea of flavour of what the weather could be like through next week.
09:15For that day-to-day detail, you want to be making sure you keep up to date with the shorter
09:19term
09:19forecasts. And the best way to do that, of course, if you're watching this on YouTube,
09:23is just to hit subscribe. Thanks for watching.
09:25Thank you very much.
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