- 2 weeks ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 31/12/2025.
Cold arctic air from the north will bring snow showers for some to start the new year.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
Cold arctic air from the north will bring snow showers for some to start the new year.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, welcome to the last 10-day trend of 2025. I'll be looking at what we can sort of expect with the weather as we go into the start of the new year.
00:10Worth bearing in mind, this is the 10-day trend, so there will be times when I can give an extra level of detail, other times particularly as I look further ahead where that detail just isn't possible.
00:19But let's get on with it and starting off looking at the picture that we have across the country as we go through the rest of New Year's Eve.
00:26And there's high pressure towards the northwest of the UK. It was this high pressure that, well, a ridge associated with it extended further across the UK earlier on this week.
00:36And it's this that brought the largely fine weather many of us have had through the last few days of 2025.
00:41But that ridge is now starting to retreat back towards the northwest and instead we're feeling the influence of low pressure just near Scandinavia.
00:50And it's this that's going to become more dominant, really, for our weather as we go through the first few days of 2026.
00:57So that low pressure is bringing some increasingly blustery strong winds across parts of Scotland.
01:02And then there's also a cold front across northern parts as well.
01:06Now, that cold front is bringing some rain and will also bring some sleet, some snow to parts of Scotland.
01:11But as it plunges its way southwards, we're going to see even colder air making its way across the country.
01:17So cold Arctic air plunging its way down as we go through New Year's Day and into Friday as well.
01:24And with that low pressure out towards the east of us, we'll stick with this cold northerly air as we go through into the first weekend of the year as well.
01:33Worth highlighting, however, as we go through into Sunday, the wind direction does change just a little bit.
01:39The wind's back slightly. And why is that important?
01:43Well, when it comes to the chance of snow, I know a lot of people will be asking whether or not they're going to see any snow.
01:49And when it comes to the chance of seeing it, it's coming in the form of showers, really, through the next few days.
01:54And it's in areas exposed to the wind where those snow showers are going to be most frequent.
01:59And so a slight shift in our wind direction will play quite a pivotal role in where we're going to see those snow showers.
02:07More on that in a second.
02:08For the start, though, I did want to highlight the strong winds that we have as we go through New Year's Eve night, through Hogmanay and into New Year's Day,
02:16particularly towards northeastern parts of Scotland.
02:18Orkney Shetland, far northeast of Scotland, even some northeastern parts of England could see some strong gusts.
02:24We're talking gales, severe gales, perhaps gusts 60, maybe 70 miles per hour, perhaps a bit stronger than that,
02:30could cause some problems through the early hours of New Year's Day.
02:33Elsewhere, the wind's not quite as strong.
02:36But if we look at what we're expecting as we head into the new year, and it's sort of a tale of two halves, really.
02:42Plenty of showers across parts of Scotland, some falling asleep to snow towards the north,
02:47turning increasingly wintry as we go through into New Year's Day.
02:51Some showers from Northern Ireland, Northern England, much drier there across central southern parts of England and Wales,
02:56but increasing amounts of cloud pushing its way southwards.
03:00Ahead of that, actually looking pretty cold, quite frosty as we head towards midnight across some southern counties.
03:06Could be some patches of fog around, but temperatures here will actually lift a little as that cloud edges its way further south.
03:13Then, as we go through into New Year's Day itself, further showery bursts of rain, sleet and snow piling in across much of Scotland,
03:22particularly the northern half.
03:23Further south, fewer showers making their way through.
03:25A few showers elsewhere, but also a front lingering or pushing southwards, bringing a few outbreaks of rain,
03:33perhaps some sleet and snow as we go through New Year's Day across some parts,
03:37maybe Northern Ireland pushing into parts of Wales and maybe central parts of England as well.
03:42But anything wintry that comes through is not really expected to settle a huge amount,
03:46so it shouldn't cause any problems.
03:48It's across parts of Scotland where we're going to see the greatest accumulations of snow,
03:53with those snow showers continue to pile in.
03:55Now, I showed you that cold air that's coming in from the north as we go through New Year's Day,
03:59so a cold feel to things for sure, especially when you factor in those strong winds.
04:03Yes, they won't be as strong as they were overnight and through the start of New Year's Day,
04:10but nonetheless quite gusty, blustery towards the north, so feeling cold here.
04:14And even elsewhere, temperatures, well, a little bit below average for the time of year,
04:18despite the fact that there will actually be a decent amount of sunshine away from any of those outbreaks of rain,
04:23sleet and a little bit of hill snow here and there.
04:25Then, as we go through the end of New Year's Day and into Friday,
04:30well, we stick with this cold northerly wind,
04:32so still more snow showers piling in across northern parts of Scotland.
04:36Chance of something coming down across parts of Northern Ireland,
04:39feeding into Wales and maybe some central parts of England as well.
04:44Bit of uncertainty as to exactly where this is going to be.
04:47It could push a little bit further eastwards,
04:49and if it does so, then we could start to see something a bit wet,
04:53maybe wintry, pushing towards the London area.
04:56But nonetheless, this has the potential to bring some impacts with ice,
05:00even if we don't see any major snow.
05:03Icy patches are a possibility across parts of Northern Ireland, Wales,
05:06and into some central parts of England as well.
05:10All the time, we continue with those snow showers piling in across parts of northern Scotland,
05:14so they will continue to lead to snowfall building up,
05:17so some high amounts of snow.
05:19Always worth bearing in mind, again,
05:20those blustery, gusty winds leading to some drifting snow,
05:23some blizzard-like conditions at times.
05:26And within these showers, there could be some rumbles of thunder at times,
05:30so we could get some thunder snow as well.
05:33Many places, though, southern Scotland, parts of Northern England,
05:35down the eastern side of England,
05:37actually away from coastal parts where a few showers are possible,
05:39a lot of dry, clear weather,
05:41so cold, frosty, or harsh frost for some of us first thing on Friday morning.
05:45Then, through Friday itself,
05:48continuous snow showers coming in across parts of Scotland,
05:51still some outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow may be filtering in across parts of Northern Ireland,
05:55and then we could end up with something akin to a Pembrokeshire dangler, perhaps,
06:00so a few showers coming down western coastal parts of Wales,
06:04and perhaps pushing into Cornwall, maybe Devon.
06:07Worth bearing in mind, probably something a little bit milder here air-wise,
06:10and so if we do get some of these showers,
06:13chance of them bringing any significant snow not particularly high,
06:17it'll probably just be maybe a wintry mix over Bodmin Moor, for example,
06:21and otherwise maybe a bit of sleet here and there,
06:24but I'm not expecting too much snow.
06:25It's really, again, across parts of Northern Scotland,
06:27where the snow risk is greatest,
06:29and perhaps a few showers feeding into some eastern parts of England as well,
06:34so watch out for those.
06:35Otherwise, actually, in between those areas I mentioned,
06:37a lot of dry weather, but cold, that cold Arctic air continues to plunge its way through,
06:42so temperatures markedly lower than on Thursday, really,
06:45so a really cold feel to things,
06:47even though there will be a decent amount of sunshine around.
06:50Now, at the time of recording, we do have several warnings out for snow and ice.
06:54I've already talked about the wind warning across parts of the northeast of Scotland
06:57as we go into New Year's Day,
06:59but yes, several snow and ice warnings out for Friday.
07:02We have a fairly large one across the northern half of Scotland,
07:05which is valid through much of Thursday and all of Friday.
07:09Here, there's the potential for, well, 30 centimetres over the highest routes,
07:14and that's enough to cause some significant disruption,
07:17could cause some major travel disruption.
07:19Remember, as I mentioned, blowing snow, drifting snow,
07:22leading to even higher amounts of lying snow,
07:25and so that's a cause for concern.
07:28Otherwise, we do have a snow and ice warning out across parts of Northern Ireland.
07:31Accumulations, only a few centimetres perhaps, but some icy patches,
07:35leading to some treacherous driving conditions,
07:38and similar across parts of Wales and across central parts of England
07:42in towards the southeast.
07:44As I mentioned, there's a bit of uncertainty as to exactly where this frontal feature
07:48is going to push across parts of the southeast as we go through Friday morning,
07:53and so it could push towards the southeast, towards London,
07:56but it may not.
07:57It may actually stay largely dry here,
07:59so definitely worth staying on top of those warnings as we get nearer the time.
08:03Then, as we go into the weekend, sticking with that cold northerly flow,
08:07a few things to point out.
08:08Still the chance of that Pembrokeshire dangler,
08:11still some showers affecting parts of southwest Wales
08:15towards the southwest of England as we go through into Saturday,
08:18and some showers across parts of Northern Ireland too,
08:20and perhaps a few more showers feeding into eastern parts of England as well.
08:24But as I mentioned, as we go through the weekend,
08:27and more so by the time we get to Sunday,
08:29those winds back a little bit,
08:31and so the flow changes slight direction.
08:34So by Sunday, whilst there will still be a few more showers
08:37pushing into Northern Ireland and through the Irish Sea,
08:40and still plenty across northern parts of Scotland,
08:42always going to be lots of showers across northern parts of Scotland,
08:45eastern parts of England seeing fewer showers by this point.
08:49So I'm not expecting as much snow to be building up
08:51during the second part of the weekend because of that change in wind direction.
08:57So again, let's look at the warning that we have out for this coming weekend,
09:01and at time of recording, it's across, well, more of Scotland compared to that earlier one.
09:06It's really just south of the central belt where we're seeing,
09:09where the warning doesn't spread,
09:11and it's because we're continuing to see those snow showers,
09:13so snow mounts could continue to build up.
09:16Now, I mentioned at the start, talking about detail,
09:20it's always worth factoring in that showers are difficult to forecast
09:23exactly when they're going to come, where they're going to be heaviest,
09:27and where they're going to really just be falling,
09:30in as much as they can be very hit and miss in their nature.
09:33So some places could see an array of showers piling through
09:36and see those significant accumulations building up,
09:39and that's why there's the potential for 30 centimetres plus in some places.
09:43Meanwhile, other areas, just by the chaotic nature, could see very little at all.
09:47So it's no guarantee that you're necessarily going to see the disruptive snow,
09:51even if you're within this warning area, but there is the potential.
09:54So worth staying on top of the forecast.
09:57Now, in terms of snowfall amounts, let's look at what we can expect
10:00as we go through Friday and into this weekend.
10:02You can see significant amount of snow likely to build up across many parts of Scotland,
10:07and then a few bits of snow across parts of Northern Ireland, Wales,
10:11and then through Saturday, yes, down the eastern side of England,
10:14but really, as that wind backs round,
10:17we're going to not really see many more showers as we go into Sunday across this part,
10:21but then a few spots of showery, rain, sleet, snow coming through again
10:26across parts of Northern Ireland and into Wales, maybe the southwest.
10:29Dartmoor hinting at something.
10:31Maybe over the top of Dartmoor could see a little bit of snow building up,
10:34but not many places, seeing a huge amount of snow accumulating.
10:38In terms of the absolute totals, I mean, this is highlighting 20 to 30 quite widely
10:45across the northern half of Scotland and maybe close to 50 centimetres
10:49over the absolute peaks of the Scottish hills and mountains.
10:52That's not out of the question.
10:54In terms of the highest totals with the showers coming in across eastern parts of England
11:00as we go through Saturday, this is showing greater than 20 centimetres.
11:04I think that's a worst-case scenario.
11:06We'd kind of need all our ducks to line up for that to happen.
11:10I think it's a greater chance there's going to be a little bit less than that,
11:13but nonetheless, it is the potential for some fairly significant snow for some of these.
11:18Some model runs hinting at it, others not so much,
11:21and so it's possible this time tomorrow we may need to issue a warning for those showers coming in
11:26if more models become in agreement for that to happen.
11:31But it's a 10-day trend.
11:33I've spent an awfully long time speaking about the next few days.
11:36What happens thereafter?
11:37And it's fair to say, well, confidence really drops.
11:40I'm still fairly confident about the idea of the northerly wind continuing as we go into Monday,
11:46and so staying cold, similar idea really.
11:49Showers across northern parts of Scotland and a few other areas.
11:52Maybe the wind's veering back a little bit, and so more showers maybe down towards some eastern parts.
11:57But then there are signs that we could see something coming in from the west.
12:03Notice the second most likely set-up with around a 26% chance has high pressure pushing closer towards us.
12:09If this comes in, well, we could see something coming in in terms of weather-wise,
12:14both milder air but also some sort of precipitation, so some rain mainly,
12:19but maybe a bit of snow on the leading edge.
12:22So the potential as we go through Monday and also into Tuesday for the potential of something to come in.
12:28And so we could start to see something turning a bit milder.
12:32But with that, there could be a fair bit more snow on the leading edge of it, as it does so.
12:38Now, as we go through the middle part of next week, well, it's really pretty low confidence.
12:44This is Tuesday, but if I look at Wednesday, I mean, even the highest likelihood set-up only has around a 27% chance.
12:50And look at the difference between the two in terms of I have my temperature anomaly on here.
12:55And really, the position of this high pressure and low pressure out towards Scandinavia really plays such a big role in what we're going to see,
13:03not only rainfall and snowfall-wise, but just in our temperatures.
13:06And so it is possible that this low pressure is a little bit closer and, I mean, there's cold Arctic air nearby.
13:14But whether or not that pushes or comes back after that slightly milder blip, if you will,
13:20comes back towards us as we go through the latter part of next week and we see the return of cold northerly Arctic air
13:26and see a return to our temperatures dropping several degrees below average.
13:30Or if the slightly more mobile, milder set-up, if that continues, well, that's what's still to be determined.
13:39And we can see that if we run through next week, Thursday, hinting at the return of the cold northerly air,
13:44but only at around a 21% chance.
13:46Meanwhile, the second most likely set-up has higher pressure coming in a bit further across the UK
13:52and that would keep the colder Arctic air a little bit more towards the north-east of us.
13:57And just to show you Friday's chart, it's the 10-day trend, so I wanted to go as far as Friday.
14:01Greater signs, perhaps, of the colder air returning by then, but worth bearing in mind,
14:05this is Met Office data, EC, GFS, so European and the American models,
14:10they all say something quite different.
14:12But EC is quite bullish with bringing the cold air back in and could bring some severe cold weather.
14:18Meanwhile, GFS wants something a bit more mobile, a bit more milder to push through at times.
14:23So really, the jury is still out for the end of this 10-day period.
14:27But I did want to show you the trend when it comes to our temperatures.
14:30Here I have London through the next few days.
14:33Worth bearing in mind, this is ECMWF data, and as I mentioned,
14:36they're a little bit more bullish with the colder air at times.
14:38But really, whilst temperatures are plummeting, well, plummeting is maybe a little bit overdoing it,
14:44but they're dropping down quite markedly through the first few days of 2026,
14:50with that cold Arctic air that's feeding its way southwards.
14:54It's then quite uncertain.
14:56Look at that spread as we go towards the middle of next week.
14:59So, yeah, very uncertain as to exactly what's going to happen.
15:02I think I wanted to pick another chart, Edinburgh,
15:04because it shows that drop in temperatures a bit more noticeably.
15:08So really seeing that lowering of temperatures through the next few days.
15:11But again, such a large spread in the possibilities, the outcomes for what we see
15:16as we head towards, well, the 7th, 8th of January in terms of, yes, temperatures,
15:21and then therefore rain, snow.
15:23So really a very convoluted, long-winded way of saying, you know,
15:27watch out for snow showers piling in across areas exposed to a northerly wind
15:31as we go through the first few days of 2026.
15:34And thereafter, well, there's a fair bit of uncertainty.
15:38I'm probably going to get some stick for not being able to be too confident
15:41with the detail that far ahead,
15:43but I would be misleading you if I try to say anything with too much confidence.
15:49So definitely worth staying on top of things.
15:50Those warnings, they're likely to get tweaked, they're likely to get updated,
15:53and we could have some more cold weather to come
15:56as we go through the latter part of next week.
15:58So definitely stay on top of things.
16:00I'll see you again soon, whatever your plans are for the start of 2026.
16:04I do hope you have a great one.
16:05Bye-bye.
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