00:00Hello there. This week's 10-day trend is a fairly simple one as the weather's not
00:05really going to change too much. But it's also fairly tricky as the day-to-day detail
00:09can often change and this leads to some difficult forecasting. I'll explain in a moment but
00:14the reason why the weather's not really changing too much, yep you've guessed it, is all due
00:19to high pressure. At first sitting out to the west and slowly edging its way eastwards
00:24through the course of the week and into the weekend where it becomes mostly straddled
00:27across the UK bringing mostly dry settled conditions. A very different weekend if you compare it
00:33to last weekend when of course we had storm avie moving its way through. So mostly dry
00:38settled, a mix of cloud and also some sunny spells. High pressure will continue to push its way
00:43eastwards as we head through into next week but as it does so of course we follow our winds
00:47around in a clockwise direction around areas of high pressure so we do start to see a bit
00:52of a change in our wind direction as we head into next week and this can have a knock-on
00:56effect across our weather. It depends where our wind is coming from as to where we see
01:01the most cloud, where we could see breaks in the cloud and of course when we see breaks
01:04in the cloud, light winds, we could see some mist, fog, possibly even some frost into next
01:09week. Now before I get on to those details I just want to reverse the clock back and of
01:14course talk about tomorrow where for some it could be a little bit of a chilly start particularly
01:18across the south where we see more breaks in the cloud. Elsewhere quite a grey gloomy start,
01:23plenty of cloud in the skies. This cloud will be thick enough to produce some drizzle particularly
01:28across Northern Ireland, south-western parts of Scotland, also north-west England. So some
01:33drizzly outbreaks at times mostly across hilly areas. Elsewhere though it should be mostly
01:38dry. We'll see a mix of clouds, some brighter interludes at times around average temperatures
01:4418 to 19 degrees Celsius so when we do see any sunnier spells it should still feel rather pleasant.
01:50Now the cloud and drizzle will linger for some particularly across Western Scotland. We've
01:56still got that constant feed coming in from the west so once again quite a damp start as
02:00we head our way into Wednesday here. Across Northern Ireland, northern parts of England,
02:05possibly parts of Wales as well once again a fair amount of cloud. This could be thick
02:08enough to produce some drizzle overnight. But elsewhere once again we'll see a mix of clouds,
02:13some clearer spells particularly in the east and where we see any prolonged clear skies that's
02:17where we could potentially see some mist and fog by the time we reach the morning. So for most quite
02:22a grey start with plenty of cloud around. That means temperatures won't drop too low so a fairly mild
02:26start for the end of the week. So cloudy, grey, we'll also see some drizzle continuing particularly
02:33across Western Scotland but it will be an improving picture. We'll eventually see more breaks in
02:37that cloud particularly as we head our way towards the afternoon. Perhaps less so across the south.
02:42Those cloudy skies may remain through much of the day. Also across the Northern Isles, fairly thick cloud
02:47producing some drizzle at times. Similar temperatures, highs reaching around 18 to 19 degrees Celsius.
02:52Now as we head through into the evening, once again there are going to be a fair amount of clear skies.
02:59So as soon as that sun dips away, it's going to turn chilly. Once again we could possibly see even some mist and fog
03:04by the morning. And we are going to start to see that sunlight dip away fairly quickly through the course of October.
03:10Less so in parts of the south. By the time we finish off October, we'll see around two hours less of sunlight.
03:17A bit more across northern areas, around two hours 30 to 40 minutes across parts of Scotland.
03:23So nights are going to draw in and if we see clear skies, that is where temperatures are soon going to dip away.
03:29And we'll see a fair amount of clear skies as we head towards the weekend.
03:32As a reminder, we've got that high pressure once again shifting its way eastward.
03:36So it will be dry, settled. There will be a mix of cloud and also some clear skies.
03:41So through the course of the morning, we could see some mist and fog, but it should clear away fairly quickly.
03:46And actually Saturday is going to be quite a pleasant day for the weekend.
03:49There will be some cloudy areas, but more of a chance of some brighter sunny spells.
03:54Northern parts of Scotland, they once again a fair amount of cloud here and we could see some drizzle at times.
03:59But for the bulk of the country, it's going to be a nice start to the weekend. Temperatures not really changing either.
04:04Highs of around 17 to 18 degrees Celsius, but even eastern Scotland should catch a fair amount of sunshine, feeling pleasant here too.
04:12Now over the weekend, there is going to be some mist and fog to start.
04:17It's a little bit tricky to say where exactly they'll be because it all depends on where we see those breaks in the cloud through the overnight period.
04:24But if we take a look at our ensemble model from here at the Met Office, we can see where there's a slightly higher chance of seeing that fog during the morning.
04:33Some quite thick fog. This is visibility lower than 200 metres.
04:37So we can see some areas that have been pointed out, so western and central areas of Scotland, parts of Wales and also parts of the southwest.
04:44So this is likely where we'll see the thickest fog as we head through into Saturday, but do keep an eye on the forecast for that one as this may change.
04:52Now let's flip over to Sunday where we can see a few more of these slightly darker orange colours.
04:58So, well, we'll see a slightly higher probability of seeing some fog during the morning.
05:02Similar areas are being picked out, western parts of Scotland, also Wales, parts of Shropshire, also Gloucestershire, but also Northern Ireland and parts of Yorkshire.
05:11So pretty much anywhere, to be honest, could catch some fog during the morning, particularly if we see those clear skies stick around through the course of Saturday night into Sunday.
05:19But these areas at the moment is where we're seeing the highest probability that we could potentially see some travel disruption as a result of this fog.
05:26But it's still a few days away. It's quite early during the Sunday morning, so not many people will be awake.
05:31And the sun is strong enough now to clear away that fog fairly quickly.
05:35So there could be some poorer visibility during the early hours of Sunday.
05:39Any low cloud should lift and break fairly quickly through the course of the morning.
05:42And Sunday will probably be fairly similar to Saturday.
05:45A mix of clouds, sunny spells, slight drop in temperatures.
05:49Highs reaching around 15 to 16 degrees Celsius, but still more or less around average for the time of year.
05:55Now, how about as we head into next week?
05:59Well, if we take a look at our probability plot in terms of pressure, we can see it's very dominated by these reds and dark red colours.
06:07So high pressure very much dominating our weather through the next 10 days and even beyond.
06:13Now, as I said earlier, it really depends where abouts that high pressure is going to sit because it really makes a big impact in terms of our wind direction.
06:22And this in turn has an impact on our weather. So where we could see the bulk of the cloud.
06:27Now, Wednesday into next week, most models are showing that high pressure will be situated off to the east.
06:33And this gives a bit more of an east south easterly direction.
06:36But this high pressure would only need to be slightly shifted further south for more of a south easterly wind direction.
06:42And that means if we follow the source of our winds, it will have more of a land track rather than a sea track.
06:48So if we have a more easterly wind direction, we'll pick up moisture from the North Sea.
06:52This will drag in plenty of cloud, particularly across eastern areas of Scotland, whereas the west could see a few more breaks.
06:57However, this high pressure, if it's sat slightly further south and we see more of that south to south easterly wind flow,
07:03we get more of a land track so that air will tend to dry out more.
07:07Dry air means less moisture to form cloud.
07:10And so we'll see a few more sunnier spells by the time we get to Wednesday.
07:14So a chance that actually, although the beginning of the week it will be dry,
07:18there will be a fair amount of cloud around, some mist and fog during the morning.
07:21Wednesday, if we see that slightly drier air mass, more of a chance of a bit more sunshine.
07:26Nevertheless, though, it's going to be remaining dry.
07:28Average temperatures, so feeling fairly similar to what we'll see over the weekend.
07:32And in terms of forecast confidence, well, we're fairly confident for the first couple of weeks of October
07:39that high pressure is going to remain the dominant force.
07:41But notice as we head to around Monday, the 20th of October, a bit further than the 10 days.
07:47But notice as we get to that period, our forecast confidence lowers slightly.
07:51And that's because we could start to see a slight change from the west.
07:55High pressure drifting to the east, allowing more frontal systems to push in from the west.
08:00Here's our European model, which we run over and over a few times,
08:03slightly changing those initial conditions each time.
08:06And quite a few are starting to show some rain pushing in from the west.
08:10Let's focus in on a few of them.
08:12So member 1, for example, this is precipitation over a 24-hour period.
08:16This is Sunday next weekend.
08:19So notice that it's starting to push in some rain from the west across member 1.
08:23Member 2 is starting to push in quite a lot of rain from parts of the south and southwest.
08:28Also member 3, showing quite a lot of rain actually pushing in from the west.
08:33So there is going to eventually be that breakdown with frontal systems pushing in as that high pressure eases away.
08:40Obviously, that's still a fair amount of time away.
08:43And for the time being, over the next 10 days, high pressure is the dominant force.
08:48So dry, settled, some mist and fog during the morning and possibly even some frost.
08:53It montes of Brazil
08:54Gotta maintain quietness.
08:55Let's focus here.
08:56I'll keep my head on.
08:58For now that you don't need to hold on.
08:59All right.
09:00Because of this, from the event settings to bottom of the zone.
09:02Too late.
09:04All right.
09:05A new way through our after Meghan McCormoo Earth,
09:06I've already approached entendeu my head on YouTube alto tgrow.
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