00:00Welcome to this 10-day trend. Now, it's fair to say the weather at the moment is a bit changeable,
00:05a bit unsettled at times,
00:07and there are some signs of something a little bit drier as we go through this 10-day period, but
00:13it's definitely not a certainty.
00:15If we look at this probability plot that I have here and the darker blues indicating that we have a
00:20Wesley-dominated pattern,
00:22so quite a mobile setup, low pressure often nearby, various fronts moving their way through,
00:27but then the colours change as we go through into next week.
00:32There's a bit more uncertainty, you would expect that, as we get further ahead,
00:36but there are some signs of higher pressure around, maybe high pressure developing up from the Azores,
00:42or maybe some Scandinavian high pressure, but nonetheless, it does look like there's the potential for something a bit drier,
00:48definitely drier than what we have at the moment and through the next few days.
00:52So currently, the jet stream, it's running across the Atlantic and it's moving its way across the UK as well,
00:58and it's this that's helping to drive some pretty unsettled weather that we're going to see as we go through
01:03the rest of Wednesday
01:04and more so into Thursday.
01:06Now, the air across us, it's a bit fresh at the moment, something a little bit milder ahead of the
01:12front that's arriving
01:13as we go through Wednesday night and into Thursday, but behind that front, notice markedly colder air.
01:18That's important for what's going to happen as we go through towards the end of the week.
01:22But yes, a front is going to push its way south-southeastwards as we go through Thursday.
01:27It's going to be quite an active front, so there could be some line convection,
01:30some heavy bursts of rain mixed in with it, and watch out for some strong gusty winds.
01:36We do have some warnings out for Northern Ireland, parts of southern Scotland, northern England and north Wales,
01:41because gusts 50, 60, possibly 70 miles per hour are quite likely,
01:45in particular as the heavier bursts of rain come through in association with this front that's making its way south
01:52-eastwards.
01:53Ahead of the front, there will be some cloud, there will be a few outbreaks of rain.
01:56Behind the front, we have some showery bursts of rain, sleet and snow because of that colder air that I
02:03showed you earlier.
02:03So colder air digging in.
02:05As a result, maximum temperatures on Thursday, well, they're going to be much lower in the north compared to in
02:10the south,
02:10where we're looking at highs around 13, 14 Celsius, that kind of thing.
02:14That front continues its progress south-eastwards as we go through the end of Thursday.
02:19It will eventually clear a way towards the south-east, but then we do have this new air mass across
02:24us.
02:24We have that cold Arctic air, which is why we're going to more readily see some sleet and snow,
02:29particularly over parts of Scotland, but not only over Scotland.
02:32Now, I mentioned the strong winds.
02:35We're talking gusts of 50, 60, 70 miles per hour, perhaps.
02:39Let's look at those.
02:40As we go through Thursday, as that front makes its way south-eastwards,
02:43it's along that front that we're really going to see the strongest winds.
02:47So depending on how far north you are, it depends on how early they are going to be.
02:51But do be aware there could be some travel disruption, particularly during the morning rush hour,
02:55the wind's easing as that front pushes its way southwards and becoming less impactful as we go through the day.
03:02So then as we head into Friday, there's colder air coming in the front across parts of the south-east.
03:08So it could be a bit wet there first thing, but that should quite quickly clear away.
03:12And then, yes, there will be some brighter weather, but also some showery bursts of rain, sleet and snow.
03:18I mentioned the sleet and snow again just to emphasise that colder air that's across us,
03:22and so that's why there's a reasonable chance that we're going to see something wintry.
03:26If we look at the details for Friday, and as I mentioned, a brighter day,
03:29particularly across a central slice of the UK, some decent fine weather here,
03:33a bit more clouds, some outbreaks of rain towards the south,
03:36and plenty of showery bursts of rain, sleet and snow across northern areas.
03:40A bit of hail mixed in with them as well, but, yeah, we could see some snow accumulating,
03:46maybe 5, 10 centimetres over parts of Scotland,
03:48and a little bit of snow maybe over parts of Northern Ireland and Northern England as well.
03:53Well, most of the snow really will be largely confined to higher ground.
03:57We're talking above 200 metres or so, but there could be some to lower levels,
04:01so there could be some impacts as a result of the snow on Friday.
04:05Also need to bear in mind there will be some strong winds still.
04:08The winds won't be as strong as on Thursday, so less likely to be impactful.
04:12But with that colder air across us, temperatures will widely be a little bit lower than on Thursday,
04:18and with the still fairly brisk winds, it's going to feel pretty raw at times,
04:23some places really feeling maybe only around 1, 2 Celsius, that kind of thing,
04:27despite the fact that there will be some sunshine around.
04:31Then as we go into, well, through the end of Friday and into Saturday,
04:35we see something a little bit drier maybe, hints of something calmer,
04:41but we still have that cold air across us.
04:43So a cold start on Saturday morning, and there will be some ice around.
04:48That could cause some problems, particularly for anyone who's heading out early on Saturday morning,
04:52some difficult, slippery conditions.
04:55So no warnings at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised if we needed one come Saturday morning.
05:00And then actually Saturday itself really looks like the drier day of the weekend for many of us.
05:05Not totally dry, not totally sunny either, a fair amount of cloud,
05:09but some breaks around here and there.
05:11If I put some symbols up, you can see, yeah, there'll be some breaks in the cloud.
05:15It can't be too clever with the positioning of any of those breaks at this sort of lead time,
05:19but yes, there will be some sunshine on offer and just a few spots of rain as well.
05:24Then we have that cold air across us,
05:27and that does mean it's going to feel pretty chilly,
05:30despite the fact that there'll be some fine weather,
05:32and there's always the chance of some further sleet and snow mixed in with it,
05:36with any rain that we see during the day, albeit there's not a huge amount.
05:40Before then, a front comes through again.
05:42Another system rattles its way across the UK as we go through Sunday.
05:46Now, we're looking, what, five days ahead at this point,
05:49so of course there is some uncertainty about the timing of this feature,
05:53but it looks like it should move through relatively quickly.
05:57The rain could be a bit heavy at times as it pushes through,
06:00but exact timing, well, I'm not that confident on at the moment.
06:03But yeah, I do think most of us will see some rain.
06:06It could be a bit heavy as we go through Sunday.
06:09And then behind it, another showery feature developing,
06:11and still some sleet, some snow mixed in with it,
06:14particularly over higher ground of Scotland.
06:16But let's look further ahead.
06:18Let's look towards next week.
06:19And here's the pressure anomaly chart from ECMWF,
06:22and the bluey-greeny colour indicating that lower than average pressure
06:26is most likely, well, across the whole of the country, really.
06:30It looks like it's generally going to be lower than average,
06:33but particularly towards the north,
06:34and I think that's particularly towards the beginning of that period,
06:38with signs of higher pressure, as I mentioned at the start,
06:41developing more so as we go through the week.
06:44But if we look day by day,
06:45and here we have the most likely scenarios from the Met Office model,
06:49and sticking with low pressure to the northwest of the UK
06:53as we go through Monday.
06:55So we have that system coming through on Sunday.
06:57That will eventually clear away,
06:59but then we end up in a showery set-up, cold air again across us,
07:03a showery set-up with low pressure towards the northwest of us.
07:06The second most likely set-up will be at a markedly lower chance,
07:09but it's not too dissimilar, really.
07:11Actually, around 66%.
07:13I hadn't noticed that.
07:1466%, that's relatively high confidence
07:16for how it's looking at that sort of lead time.
07:20But what happens thereafter?
07:21Well, then confidence really starts to drop.
07:24I think we are going to see another weather system coming through,
07:26maybe Tuesday into Wednesday.
07:28That's going to then clear its way southeastward.
07:30So most of us will see a spell of rain.
07:34But at the moment, can't be too clever with the detail,
07:36but I just do think we'll have some more unsettled weather for a time.
07:39With these features coming in from the west, northwest,
07:42it will be across western, northwestern parts
07:45where we see the highest rainfall total,
07:47so similar to what we see on Sunday, really.
07:49And so it's those areas where it's going to be wettest.
07:52The further south and east you are,
07:53the less rain that's going to be pushing through.
07:55But nonetheless, most of us should see a spell of wet weather.
07:59But then, yeah, so Wednesday's still likely to be dominated by low pressure.
08:04Worth highlighting the pressure percentage.
08:06Chances are getting pretty low at this sort of lead time
08:08because of the slightly lower than usual confidence.
08:12I was going to say higher than usual unconfidence, but that's not right.
08:15Lower than usual confidence as we go through the back end of next week.
08:19But I did just want to highlight that some models are suggesting
08:22that we could start to see high pressure building,
08:24particularly towards the south, but exactly where that high pressure is going to be sitting.
08:27If we look at the third most likely set up for Thursday,
08:30it's a little bit further east, more so over France.
08:33But, yeah, higher pressure likely to be building in,
08:36particularly across southern parts as we go through Thursday.
08:39And then Friday's a bit of a mess,
08:42in as much as there could be low pressure dominating towards the north,
08:45or the high pressure towards the south may be more of a feature.
08:49What this really means, well, if we look at our temperatures, first of all,
08:54and we can see a real drop in our temperatures,
08:57if we take Leeds just as an example,
08:59and we see a drop in our temperatures as we go through Thursday and into Friday,
09:04that cold Arctic air that I mentioned,
09:06bringing the risk of some fairly significant snow for some places,
09:09as we go through towards the very end of the week.
09:11And then we stay on the colder side,
09:13but gradually it's not going to be a rapid rise,
09:16but gradually we're going to see temperatures rising as we go through the week.
09:20And that's because of the change in the direction where we'll be getting our air from.
09:24And so it is set to be slightly milder, warmer air.
09:27And so, if anything, I think by the end of the week,
09:29temperatures are likely to be a little bit above average for the time of year.
09:33But in summary, for next week,
09:36a bit of a north-west-south-east split initially,
09:39so Monday, Tuesday, into Wednesday,
09:43the brunt of the wet weather will be across northern and western parts,
09:47further south and east, a greater chance of staying dry.
09:49And then as we go through the week,
09:51even still with high pressure,
09:53more likely to develop from the south.
09:55It's always southern areas which are going to most likely be dry.
09:59Meanwhile, towards the north-northwest,
10:00always the chance of some fronts pushing through.
10:03But with that high pressure developing,
10:05our weather pattern, which is quite mobile at the moment,
10:08I showed you that probabilistic chart at the start,
10:12showing the westerly being the most common pattern at the moment,
10:15that mobile setup we have at the moment,
10:16that's going to reduce and decline a little bit.
10:19And so, a greater chance of something a bit quieter,
10:23a bit more settled developing.
10:24And as I mentioned with that as well,
10:27temperatures are set to rise a little bit.
10:29So going from quite chilly, really,
10:31as we go through the back end of this week
10:33to rising a little bit above average
10:35as we go through next week.
10:37Of course, details will firm up nearer the time,
10:39so make sure you stay up to date with the forecasts
10:42across our YouTube channel, across Spotify,
10:45across all of our social media.
10:46But I'll see you again soon.
10:47Bye-bye.
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