00:00Welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend that takes us into the first week of August and therefore into
00:07the final month of summer.
00:09And what a summer it's been so far. A lot of statistics about July will be out at the end
00:14of this week.
00:15So stay tuned to the Met Office for more on that.
00:18Let's take a look at what's going on. People are desperate for some rain, of course, and we will see
00:23some in the forecast.
00:25The jet stream, though, as is often the case at this time of year, is pretty weak.
00:29You can see it's in this kind of trough, this little dipper that is generating low pressure systems that are
00:34bringing some showery rain over the next couple of days across the northern half of the UK.
00:39But further south, generally, high pressure remains in control.
00:43But then this little fella, little air of low pressure drifts by the south as we go into the early
00:48part of next week.
00:50And that might provide a little bit of very welcomed rain across the south.
00:55More on that in a second, though. Let's rewind the clock and go back to the more immediate future where
01:01we do have things cooling down.
01:02A hot day on Wednesday across the southeast, but the first cold front is passing across the country, not producing
01:08much rain as it heads south.
01:10It's really weakening, just a cloudier day here, maybe the odd light shower drifting through.
01:15But close to the low pressure, some heavy showers across northern Scotland, slow moving showers as well.
01:20And that cold front sinking south, introducing cooler conditions for many.
01:24It's still warm in the afternoon sunshine.
01:26We could still get to 27, 28 in and around the London area.
01:30But those temperatures are considerably down on Wednesday's values.
01:34Now, what's left of that weakening front continues to bring a little light rain and drizzle, maybe, through Thursday night
01:40before slowly pulling away as we head into Friday.
01:43And then, again, a few showers coming in on a brisk west or southwesterly breeze for northern Ireland and Scotland.
01:49But most of England and Wales, again, will be dry with sunny spells.
01:53But instead of temperatures in the mid-30s, we are in the mid-20s, so much closer to the average
01:59for the time of year.
02:00A little bit warmer, perhaps in the mid-month average across the south.
02:03But further north, only into the mid to high teens, so actually a little cooler than average here on Friday.
02:09So we are seeing that fresher feel, low pressure being pushed along by that weak jet stream to the north,
02:14allowing the winds to come in more from the west.
02:17But we've still got this arm, if you like, ridge of high pressure dominating across the south.
02:22Then eyes down to the southwest, this air of low pressure trying to push in, but making very slow progress
02:30as we go through towards the weekend.
02:32So, for most, high pressure remains in control.
02:35Yes, close to the low, there will be one or two scattered showers this weekend over northern Scotland.
02:39But for the vast majority, the weekend will be largely dry.
02:43A fine summer's weekend, really, with sunny spells and temperatures, certainly across the south, much closer to the average compared
02:51to where they are through the middle part of the week.
02:54So it is turning a bit cooler for the weekend, but it's not really turning much wetter.
02:58There are some hints that we could see some rain, but there's lots of ifs and buts about that as
03:04we go into the early part of next week.
03:07This map is showing the UK and how much rain we are going to see over the next five days
03:13until Tuesday,
03:15based on the three main models that we look at.
03:17The Met Office model here, the ECMWF model in the middle and the GFS, the American model on the right.
03:23And they're all showing a pretty similar pattern that, yes, with those showers coming in, we will see some wet
03:28weather at times across Scotland,
03:30perhaps northwest England and north Wales as well, but not a lot across these southern areas.
03:36A little bit of showery rain as that front moves through.
03:39But otherwise, we're not expecting to see much over the next few days across the south.
03:44But there are hints that we could just see something as this area of low pressure approaches.
03:49It depends on its exact track, which in turn will, of course, depend on the jet stream.
03:54But, of course, with the jet stream, as is usual at this time of year, being fairly feeble, really hard
03:59to pick out too much in the way of trend.
04:02So this low doesn't look much.
04:04And in the Met Office model, it actually moves more across northern France, bringing some showery rain here and almost
04:09bypasses the UK completely
04:11because the jet stream just pushes it along.
04:13But if we compare what the ECMWF, the European model, is doing with the jet stream, you can see here
04:21on the Met Office model, fairly weakened down to the south, but fairly straight.
04:25Then there are hints here from the European model, the UK is under here, that we've got a bit more
04:30of a dip in the jet stream here.
04:32These are the winds high up in the sky where the jet stream is.
04:36And you can see there is more of a dip there, suggesting there's a bit more of a trough and
04:40so potentially developing that area of low pressure a little bit more
04:43and therefore pushing a bit further north and across to the UK, which would provide some useful rain.
04:49Now, that's when we just look at the main ECMWF model.
04:54Obviously, if you watch the 10-day trend long enough, you'll know that we use these.
04:57We use the ensemble members where you run the model many, many times, 50 times to be precise for the
05:04European model.
05:06And that gives you more of a probabilistic look at the weather.
05:10Now, I appreciate these are quite hard to pick out.
05:13But if we zoom in, you can just see a couple here, member 25 and member 16, have that low
05:19pressure for Monday into Tuesday, sitting right over the UK.
05:22This one in particular, quite potent with a lot of isobards around.
05:25And it's not just bringing some rain, but also potentially bringing some strong winds.
05:28But these are in the minority.
05:30Many more of them have a much weaker pressure signal with a fairly feeble area of low pressure,
05:37still capable of providing some showers moving in across particularly southern parts of the UK.
05:42So there is the potential for some showery rain as we go into the early part of next week.
05:48After that, well, at this time of year, again, signals are often fairly weak.
05:54But the main thing coming out from most of the models is that some form of high pressure will reestablish
06:00itself across the UK.
06:02And this is the most likely scenario for next Wednesday.
06:06Greater than a 50% chance, actually, with a high pressure sitting somewhere up to the northwest,
06:10which would allow the breeze to be more coming in from the east or the north.
06:14The second most likely scenario has that high in a similar position to it,
06:19where it has been actually of late more to the west of the UK.
06:22And if we run through into Thursday and Friday as well, again, still the chances has dropped somewhat.
06:30Now it's just a 30% chance.
06:31But that's actually quite a high number for this far ahead, over a week ahead.
06:35But still with high pressure in control.
06:36Remember, high pressure means the air is sinking, which doesn't generate much in the way of rain.
06:41And even the second and the third most likely scenarios all have high pressure dominating close by to the UK.
06:48If we forward to Friday, again, the most likely scenario is that same setup.
06:53And the other two also either high pressure or unbiased,
06:57which means there's not really much of a signal between high or low pressure.
07:00So you can see from there, the second half of next week is more likely than not still going to
07:05be dominated by high pressure.
07:07And these are showing the temperature trends.
07:11Again, when you run the model many times, the European model for two different locations.
07:16One at the top is for Dundee.
07:17The one at the bottom is for Birmingham.
07:19And you can see that the Birmingham extreme, the temperatures here, this is close to the extremes.
07:26This is the average line across the middle.
07:29And you can see that we're right up there for Birmingham to start with.
07:32At the time of recording, very hot day in Birmingham.
07:34But we soon get that drop down closer to average, but always pretty much above average, even as we go
07:40into it next week.
07:41But much closer to average than we have been.
07:44Perhaps a little bump in temperatures on Monday there with that greater uncertainty.
07:48The box and whiskers much fatter because there's more uncertainty about the track of the low.
07:52And it's a similar story for Dundee.
07:54Not as hot, certainly at time of recording.
07:57Much closer to average.
07:58But we do get that little dip before potentially a little rise into Monday and Tuesday, depending on the track
08:04of that low, which could push some air up from the south.
08:07And then through much of next week, we are close to or a little below average, say, in Dundee.
08:12But either way, much closer to average temperatures through next week with a little chance of seeing much in the
08:19way extreme temperatures after what has been a very hot summer so far.
08:24So looking for rain? Well, certainly in the south, there may be a little next week, but we're not looking
08:30at a change in our weather patterns.
08:32Nothing dramatic, which is really what we need if you want to see a lot of rain.
08:36So, yes, there is the chance of some rain early next week, but it's unlikely to be a huge amount.
08:42Much of next week still likely to be dominated by high pressure, which means still much of next week is
08:47likely to be dry.
08:48And as we've just seen, those temperatures are likely to be closer to average with the chances of extreme heat
08:56pretty slim.
08:58More on all of that, as always, if you follow us across social media and for the day to day
09:03details, you'll want to make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Comments