00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend, covering of course Halloween, bonfire
00:05night and the end of October start of November.
00:09The big weather story globally though at the moment doesn't concern the UK, it concerns
00:15Hurricane Melissa, which hit Jamaica on Tuesday as a category 5 monster, in fact with a central
00:23pressure of 892 hectopascals and a sustained wind speed of 185mph as it made landfall.
00:31It was the joint most intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall on record.
00:37Records go back to 1851.
00:39At the time of recording it's now bringing further disruption and destruction to Cuba,
00:44it's going to pass through Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas and then eventually end up in
00:49the North Atlantic.
00:51So I imagine during the next few days there will be the usual unjustified hype about a
00:56hurricane hit in the UK.
00:59That's not going to happen.
01:00But Melissa is going to end up in the North Atlantic over cooler waters, it's going to
01:05weaken considerably and it will end up as a typical mid-latitude low passing most likely
01:12to the north of the UK as just another low pressure system effectively nowhere near the
01:19the same beast that brought so much destruction and terrible conditions over the Caribbean.
01:27It will be virtually indistinguishable to these lows that are also lining up to head towards
01:33the UK.
01:34And it's this low in particular later Wednesday into Thursday that is starting to inch closer
01:39to the UK.
01:40Still moving area of low pressure and in fact slow enough that we start Thursday with plenty
01:44of fine and bright weather.
01:45A few mist and fog patches here and there across northern parts of the UK in particular and
01:50a touch of frost in the air.
01:51So a chilly start for many under a ridge of high pressure first thing.
01:55And here's where we are at lunchtime with some bright skies remaining across eastern parts
02:00of the UK but cloudier conditions towards the west.
02:03A warm front pushing some persistent rain into Northern Ireland into parts of Wales as well.
02:10But staying drier elsewhere and the wind increasingly picking up bringing some disruption potentially to
02:16parts of Northern Ireland with the risk in exposed spots of 60-70 mph wind gusts.
02:23The rain as well causing increasingly unsettled weather across western parts of the country
02:29as we go into Thursday evening.
02:30This heavy band of rain moving through western parts during the evening and then crossing the
02:35country overnight keeping its form as it clears eastern England and pushes into Orkney and Shetland
02:42by dawn on Friday.
02:44So that will keep temperatures a little higher compared with Wednesday nights but it stays
02:49unsettled as we go into Friday, Halloween of course.
02:53Low pressure to the northwest of the UK will stay there for a couple of days.
02:58Friday into Saturday swinging various weather fronts and features in from the west.
03:05So we are going to oscillate between showers and longer spells of rain.
03:09In fact, Friday could be a very unsettled day with some particularly lively showers especially
03:14across central and southern parts of the country, some thunderstorms and watch out for the risk
03:19of some particularly gusty winds surrounding some of the heavier downpours not just around coasts
03:26where it will be blustery through the day.
03:28But inland where we see these showers forming, hit and miss as is always the case but some
03:32really quite lively thunderstorms could develop on Friday afternoon and push their way east-northeast.
03:40So it's fairly quickly but bringing the potential for thunder, lightning and hail and gusty winds
03:46as well.
03:47Interspersed by some brighter weather and a little milder as we go through Friday, temperatures
03:51reaching 16 Celsius there across southern parts.
03:55Friday night for Halloween if you are heading out trick-or-treating then it's a mixed bag.
04:01I think the driest and clearest weather likely towards the east, it's going to stay blustery
04:05however.
04:06Towards the west a drier start to the evening so perhaps get out there early on before the
04:12next batch of showery rain moves in and again these will be heavy with gusty winds surrounding
04:16them.
04:17They cross the country clearing eastern parts on Saturday morning.
04:21Saturday afternoon then a more traditional mix of sunny spells and showers again some
04:25gusty winds around those showers, perhaps some thunderstorms in places.
04:29So a real mixed bag I think on Friday and Saturday with low pressure nearby.
04:35In between the showers there will be some sunshine, a little cooler on Saturday itself.
04:39But we go into Saturday night with further showers coming along again with blustery winds.
04:44All of this weather of course keeping overnight temperatures a little higher on Saturday night
04:50and into Sunday morning because there's another cluster of very heavy showers moving in by
04:55dawn across Wales in the south west, further showers into the north west of Scotland, some
04:59clear spells in the east as we begin Sunday.
05:02These systems do tend to move through and then turning a little drier across most parts for
05:08a few hours around the middle of Sunday.
05:10You can see some sunshine there across central parts of the UK, northeast Scotland as well,
05:15before the next system brings a band of rain into Ireland and as we go into Sunday the winds
05:22will start strengthening again towards the west.
05:25Now this band of rain may well be associated with the remnants of ex-hurricane by this stage, Melissa.
05:34Here it is from the Met Office model and in fact if we rewind the clock you can see where it came from.
05:40We can go back to the time of recording and it's currently at the time of recording clearing Cuba.
05:47Here's the jet stream and at the moment Hurricane Melissa isn't quite joining in with the jet stream
05:55but over the next couple of days it will move north, move north much more quickly than the last few days of course.
06:02It's been so slow moving and then on Friday it's likely to be picked up by the jet stream but at the same time
06:08there's another low coming out of North America and the interaction between these two lows, Melissa,
06:14and the new low coming out of North America and the interaction with the jet stream make for a very complicated forecast
06:21on Friday and into the weekend because those interactions will determine exactly where Melissa ends up.
06:27Now the Met Office model keeps it just to the northwest of the UK and in fact if we run the model many times,
06:33this is the European output, the model is run 51 times and you can see the track from Melissa,
06:41fairly high confidence that it will push quickly into the North Atlantic, end up over cooler waters,
06:47picked up by the jet stream and then a fair bit of divergence about where it goes next but likely heading towards the north of the UK.
06:56The 51 simulations from the European model mostly have it to the northwest of the UK.
07:02There are some other model simulations that push the low into more central parts of the UK but they're in the minority.
07:10You can't rule them out at this stage but they are in the minority.
07:13It's most likely that Melissa will move into the waters just to the north of the UK between Iceland and Scotland.
07:21But yeah, we'll keep you updated over the next few days as to how that is turning out.
07:27Now, as that takes place, it's likely to bring outbreaks of rain and stronger winds to many northern and western parts of the UK
07:36as we go into the start of next week.
07:38But like I said at the start, nothing particularly unusual is signalled at the moment.
07:42It looks most likely to be another mid-latitude low just like the ones we've seen so many of during recent days.
07:48And that low pressure signal to the north of the UK is a strong signal for the start of next week.
07:55Whether it's Melissa or another low, there's a 62% chance when we look at more than 250 model simulations
08:03that this weather pattern will prevail on Monday the 3rd of November.
08:07Low pressure to the north or northwest of the UK.
08:10The blue colours here indicate above average rainfall for the time of year for western Scotland,
08:14Wales, northwest England, Northern Ireland, the south and southwest.
08:18About average towards the east.
08:20So the wettest weather coming in to the west because of the placement of the low
08:24and these strong southwesterly winds.
08:26And fast forwarding to Tuesday, the same weather pattern is again the most likely weather pattern.
08:3353% chance again of wetter than average conditions to the west of the UK
08:38as these lows, whether it's Melissa or another low, pass close to the north of Scotland.
08:43And that's summed up by this probability plot.
08:45This shows the most likely weather patterns going out to the next couple of weeks.
08:49They're colour coded so the dark blues here are westerlies.
08:52The lighter blues are southwesterlies.
08:55And it's basically through next week a mixture of westerlies and southwesterlies.
09:00That would indicate lows just to the north of the UK and bringing in very changeable weather.
09:06Bands of rain, blustery winds interspersed by more showery days.
09:11It isn't until we get towards the middle of November that some of these other colours start to join in
09:17they indicate more settled interludes.
09:19But the signal for those is still relatively small until you get to 10th or 11th of November.
09:25So the 6th of November next Thursday, this just sums up the top three most likely weather patterns.
09:31Low pressure tending to sit to the northwest is again the most likely weather pattern
09:36with above average rainfall across western parts.
09:38And the second and third most likely weather patterns are basically very similar
09:43with that northwesterly position of the low pressure passing between Iceland and Scotland.
09:50Fast forward to Saturday the 8th of November.
09:53Again low pressure to the north and northwest of the UK.
09:56The most likely scenario.
09:57But there is a hint here.
09:59We look at the third most likely of higher pressure and the second most likely to the south or to the east of the UK.
10:06So just a hint there as we get towards the 8th, 9th, 10th of November of something a little less unsettled
10:13with higher pressure most likely to the south.
10:16This sums up next week with the pressure anomaly at its lowest across Iceland and the northwest of Scotland
10:24and this strong southwesterly airflow.
10:26This is a summary of next week's weather or pressure pattern from the European model.
10:31But the following week shows something a little different.
10:34It shows not much of a signal across much of the UK.
10:39But higher than average pressure more likely across southern parts and certainly over the continent.
10:45So that just indicates a better chance of building pressure to the south.
10:49Still more likely than not we keep changeable weather across the UK.
10:54But perhaps not quite as unsettled with a greater chance of some more settled interludes coming up from the south occasionally.
11:00So that sums it up for this week's 10 day trend but we'll keep updated day to day on the detail on our YouTube channel.
11:05Thank you so much for watching.
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