- 2 days ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 26/11/2025.
Temperatures will rise and fall with some wet and windy weather to watch out for.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
Temperatures will rise and fall with some wet and windy weather to watch out for.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00As we always see, there's been a lot of interest in the weather that we can expect as we go through December and the start of meteorological winter.
00:08And it's fair to say there's been some chopping and changing in the most likely story.
00:13But let's look through the next 10 days then and starting off with the current jet stream situation.
00:19And it's meandering northwards and then dipping down across the country and then across western parts of Europe as well.
00:27And this jet stream has also helped push away some of that cold air that we've had across us recently.
00:32So, yes, Wednesday started very cold, frosty for many places, but that colder air now shifting away towards the east with milder air coming in from the west instead.
00:43That jet stream as well is also helping strengthen an area of low pressure that's pushing its way in from the Atlantic.
00:49Now, this area of low pressure is likely to track just to the north of the UK, more towards the Faroes.
00:55But nonetheless, it is going to bring some very windy weather across northern parts as we go through Thursday into Friday.
01:02There is also a front pushing through as we go through Thursday, so that's going to bring quite a bit of cloud and a bit of rain as well for many places.
01:08But I think a bigger talking point will be the strong gusty winds across northern parts.
01:12But as well as that, as the area of low pressure drifts away towards the northeast, whilst I mentioned that we have things a bit milder as we go through the next day or so,
01:22we're going to see the return of cold Arctic air as we go towards the end of the week and more so through the weekend.
01:28So temperatures dropping again as we go through into Saturday and Sunday.
01:31Let's look at Thursday in a little bit more detail.
01:35And as I mentioned, there is a front that's making its way through in association with that area of low pressure.
01:40And so we are going to see more cloud and a bit of rain for many places as we go through Thursday.
01:46And then later on towards the northwest, something a bit clearer, a few showers for sure, some clearer skies here, but also those strengthening winds.
01:55More on those in just a second.
01:56And I think the other thing that's going to be pretty notable alongside the cloud, the rain, the blustery winds will be the rise in temperatures.
02:03As I mentioned, we have much milder, warmer air making its way through.
02:07And so temperatures on Thursday are going to be several degrees above average for the time of year.
02:11A stark contrast to the cold that we've had so far for, well, for a little while at least.
02:17Then later on Thursday, a lot of the cloud and rain shifts away towards the southeast.
02:22So clearer skies, but as I mentioned, some strong gusty winds across particularly northern and western parts of Scotland.
02:28There is currently a warning out.
02:30You could see gusts of 60, 70 miles per hour, perhaps even 75 miles per hour in some exposed coastal spots.
02:35So watch out for those.
02:36That could cause some issues.
02:38Otherwise, then, as we go through Friday, yes, a lot of dry, bright, sunny weather to start off with.
02:42But showery bursts of rain pushing their way through.
02:44Some of these could be heavy at times and obviously still quite blustery across parts of Scotland.
02:48Even though currently the warning expires at 11 a.m., it is still going to stay windy as we go through later on.
02:54And worth highlighting with that colder air that I mentioned, pushing in a few wintry showers mixed in across the high ground of Scotland.
03:02They look quite likely.
03:05But then let's go through the details for this weekend.
03:07Because as that area of low pressure that's bringing the strong winds in the north as we go through Thursday into Friday, that clears away towards the southeast, we're then going to see an area of low pressure developing.
03:19And there's some uncertainty as to the exact track this is going to take and also how deep it's going to get as a feature.
03:26We often see that sort of uncertainty when the feature hasn't even started to develop yet.
03:31But nonetheless, it's likely to push somewhere across southern parts of the UK, then push a bit further northeastwards across East Anglia into the North Sea.
03:38Now, this area of low pressure could get pretty deep and it is set to bring some wet but also some pretty windy weather as we go through Saturday and also into Sunday.
03:48But I mentioned there's some uncertainty.
03:51Let's have a look at that now.
03:52If we compare various ECMWF runs and we can see the intensity and the position of the low changes.
04:00This is the control member.
04:01It's actually quite similar to the Met Office model.
04:03It has that low pressure pushing through across southern parts and then making its way northeastwards.
04:09But if we compare that to member 14, which I've picked because this one's particularly deep,
04:14has the low in a slightly different position, a bit closer towards the near continent.
04:19And if this comes off, well, then we'd see windier weather for sure down the eastern side of the UK.
04:25Yes, but also affecting maybe Belgium, Netherlands.
04:28It could be particularly windy there as well.
04:31However, if we look at, say, member 25 and it's a flabbier low, much less intense, a bit further south as well.
04:38So, yes, there's some uncertainty as to exactly the track it's likely to take and also how deep it's going to be.
04:45And then that plays a role in how severe the weather is going to be.
04:49It's worth highlighting then looking at the gusts and going back to the Met Office model.
04:54And with this in mind, this is the preferred scenario.
04:57And you can see strong gusts, yes, along the south coast.
05:01But then down the eastern side of the UK as well, we could see gusts of around maybe 50, 60 miles per hour,
05:07perhaps even a touch stronger maybe.
05:09And because of the direction that the wind's coming from, slightly unusual, could cause some impacts.
05:14So I would expect some warnings to be required as a result of this.
05:17But we just do need to bear in mind that the low could take a slightly different track to this.
05:22Could be a bit further north, could be a bit further south, and it could be a bit more intense.
05:26And if it's more intense, then, yes, we would see some more severe weather, stronger winds,
05:30and that could cause some greater impacts.
05:33Whilst I'm on that, I also did want to touch on,
05:35and we've had some storms recently.
05:37Obviously, we started with Storm Amy.
05:38Then we've had Storm Benjamin, Storm Claudia.
05:40But those last two, they were named by the French and Spanish Met Services accordingly.
05:46And so they weren't on our naming list.
05:49So if we were to name a storm, and we're not expecting to,
05:53but if we were, then we would be going with Storm Bram,
05:56which is the next name on our list.
05:58And that's the same whether MetAaron or KNMI, the Dutch Met Service name it.
06:02So that's the next name on our list, which is why you may get confused
06:05why we're going from C back to B when we've already had Storm Benjamin
06:08because Meteor France named Benjamin, so it came from that list.
06:13Now, as well as the strong winds, we need to watch out for some high rainfall totals
06:17that are building up.
06:17Here I have our 24-hour rainfall totals running through Saturday.
06:21And you can see somewhere around South Wales, Southwest England,
06:24and then in a line running up towards parts of, well, East Anglia, Lincolnshire.
06:30That's where we're likely to see the highest rainfall totals.
06:33There will also be some further wet weather as we go through Sunday as well.
06:37Through the two days combined, could be looking at maybe close to 50 millimeters
06:41in a few places, a lot of that coming in a relatively short period of time.
06:45So as well as the winds, we do need to watch out for the rain.
06:49Whilst we're on the rain, it's worth highlighting,
06:50because of the uncertainty in the position of the low.
06:53If it is a bit further north, then the rain could be a bit further north.
06:56And with that colder air coming down from the north that I mentioned earlier,
06:59well, there could be something wintry.
07:01Some sleet and snow could be mixed in with it as well,
07:03particularly over higher ground of northern England, maybe,
07:07maybe into southern Scotland.
07:08But that relies on this rain being a bit further north
07:10than we currently expect it to be.
07:13Then, well, what are you going to,
07:16or what are you going to find behind the first door on your advent calendar this year?
07:21Well, weather-wise, it looks like we're going to see a lot of cloud and rain
07:24and some strong winds too.
07:25Perhaps a quieter start to the day, a brief ridge of high pressure first thing on Monday.
07:29But then, yes, it does look like a weather system is going to move through.
07:32And so we're going to see some heavy rain, some strong gusty winds.
07:36Yes, again, some question marks to exactly the timing of this feature.
07:39But at the moment, Monday does look quite an unsettled day.
07:42On their own, the rainfall totals at the moment don't look especially high.
07:47But if those higher totals that I just mentioned for this coming weekend come off,
07:52then again, parts of South Wales, maybe southwest England,
07:55they could see some further very wet weather to start the week.
07:59And that could add to any ongoing issues from the wet weekend.
08:03What happens thereafter?
08:05It is the 10-day trend after all.
08:07So let's look further ahead.
08:08And it's fair to say things are set to remain pretty unsettled.
08:13Not a total washout every day.
08:16There will be some drier spells, but a lot of wet and windy weather around.
08:21And we can see this with our probability plot.
08:23Remember the blues indicating low pressure nearby.
08:26Low pressure generally means more unsettled.
08:28But exactly where the low pressure is going to be situated?
08:31Well, that's where there's a fair bit of uncertainty.
08:33Often at this time of year, confidence isn't particularly high.
08:36And that's what we have in this instance, the detail as to exactly where those low pressure
08:42systems are going to be sitting.
08:43And therefore, the weather that we get across as well, it's just not there at the moment.
08:48The confidence in the detail is not there.
08:50And I think it's fair to say it's going to be quite a complex setup as we go through next week.
08:55So low pressure likely to be nearby, but there could be several low pressures dotted around.
08:59And so the influence of them on our weather will be, well, quite difficult to pinpoint at the moment.
09:05But if we look at the most likely setup for next Tuesday, and it's got low pressure just to the north of the UK.
09:12And this would go in line with our unsettled weather coming in from the west, drier towards the east, but not totally dry.
09:18But just to highlight the second and third most likely setups, they agree with low pressure being nearby.
09:24But the position is quite different, particularly for the second most likely.
09:27That has that low pressure a fair bit further south and east.
09:30And then that plays a role in, yes, the rainfall amounts.
09:32Notice it's eastern parts that are a bit wetter than the west in this setup.
09:37But also the wind direction and therefore how cold or how warm or mild it's going to be.
09:43In this setup, it would be milder.
09:45In this setup, it would be markedly colder with air coming back down from the north still.
09:50Then if we go through the next few days after that, and Wednesday is looking quite similar.
09:54By Thursday, well, another area of low pressure coming through.
09:57More unsettled weather coming in from the west.
10:00And then similar on Friday and also into the weekend, really.
10:04So it does look like things are going to stay pretty unsettled.
10:08What that means for our temperatures then, after a chillier weekend, and perhaps chilly still as we go through into Monday,
10:16temperatures probably creeping up a little bit as we go through next week.
10:19So around average on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
10:21But as we go later on in the week, signs that we could see something a bit milder coming in as we go through Thursday, Friday as well.
10:30But all the time, a few things to bear in mind.
10:33Whilst there could be some air coming in from the south, because those low pressure systems will be moving through,
10:38and we're not too confident on the position that they're going to be, whilst there could be some milder air coming from the south,
10:43it's definitely no guarantee, and it might not be a huge plume of milder, warmer air.
10:48So I'm not expecting markedly milder temperatures to last for a significant amount of time.
10:54So whilst it will be less cold than over the weekend, and it is going to be mild, perhaps a bit milder than average for the time of year,
11:02it's not necessarily going to be a really mild, warm spell or anything like that,
11:08because there is colder air always lingering to the north of the UK.
11:12And if we look at the most likely setup for Saturday, that actually brings some of that colder air back in.
11:17And so I think, at least across northern parts, that the colder theme looks set to continue generally,
11:22or at least at times, as we go through next week.
11:25We can look at our temperatures on this graph here.
11:28I've just picked London for an example, but you can see at the moment, well, through Wednesday, it was a cold start.
11:33Temperatures really rising as we go through into Thursday.
11:37And then a gradual drop as we go through the weekend, as that colder Arctic air plunges back down across the country.
11:42And so temperatures dropping not quite as low as they are at the moment, but nonetheless, a bit colder as we go through Sunday and into Monday.
11:50And then they pick up again to around a little bit above at times, but around average for the early December, really,
11:59as it will be December, it will be meteorological winter by then.
12:02So, yeah, a bit of a roller coaster ride when it comes to our temperatures going from very low to quite high and then dropping down,
12:09but picking up a little bit again as well.
12:11Now, that story's similar if we look at Edinburgh now, but not quite as marked in as much as, yes,
12:18still going markedly milder as we go through Thursday and Friday and then dropping down again,
12:22but not necessarily getting as much of a rise in temperatures as we go through early next week.
12:28So a slight jump, so not quite as chilly as over the weekend.
12:31So temperatures rising a little bit, but not quite as much as further south.
12:35And that's because we always have that colder air somewhere towards the north of the UK that we need to watch out for.
12:41And so just bear that in mind.
12:44So in summary, what can we expect for next week?
12:47Well, low pressure generally going to be dominating, not one big area of low pressure coming and just sitting across us.
12:54No, it looks like we're going to see several areas of low pressure moving through.
12:57There could be separate cutoff lows, which will complicate things as well.
13:02But with that, you would also expect some fairly wet and windy weather at times.
13:06As I mentioned before, we're not talking every day being a total washout.
13:10There will be some drier spells in between.
13:12But on the whole, it does look like quite an unsettled story as we go through next week.
13:17And with that, when at this time of year, wetter, windier often means milder.
13:22And I think it is going to be milder than what we have currently or what we've had through much of this week and what we're going to have through this coming weekend.
13:29But especially towards the north, it could actually be quite chilly or cold at times.
13:35And some of that colder air could make its way further south as well, particularly as we go towards the latter part of next week.
13:41Big questions as to what's going to come thereafter.
13:44Some signs of a blocking pattern could bring something colder, but less confidence on that compared to how it looked a day or so ago.
13:51But obviously, we will be keeping you up to date with the forecast.
13:54The chances of a white Christmas, too far to tell at the moment.
13:56But we will be keeping you up to date across our social media and our YouTube channel.
14:01Bye-bye.
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