00:00Very messy, a little bit frustrating, but generally overall fairly benign.
00:06No, I'm not talking about my daughter's bedroom.
00:07I am talking about the state of the weather for the short to medium term.
00:11The jet stream is fragmented, to say the least.
00:15The wind's high up in the atmosphere, bits of it all over the place across the mid-Atlantic.
00:20Nothing too coherent.
00:22What that means is there's nothing really forcing the weather.
00:24So we've got weak areas of low and high pressure kind of just milling around,
00:29allowing the weather for the next few days to be a mixture of cloud, some showers and some sunny spells.
00:36Now, as we head towards the weekends, the jet stream does kind of get a little bit more organised,
00:41eventually forming into this snaking reverse S shape,
00:45which allows these two weather systems to be in a bit of a scrap for control across the UK,
00:51with low pressure down to the southwest, high pressure trying to build in from the northwest.
00:56So that just encourages things as we go into the weekend to become a little bit more uncertain.
01:02But let's get back to the next couple of days because, as I said, a weak air of low pressure
01:06drifting to the north.
01:07This weather front's marking the boundary between the warm and the cold air,
01:11and that really is the main difference as we head towards the end of the week.
01:13It's been quite chilly so far through this week, but in the south, the warmer air is pushing back in,
01:19whereas across the north, it's staying on the cool side.
01:22So Friday's temperatures, single figures across the far north, whereas in the south, we might be close to 20 Celsius.
01:28The difference is even more marked as we head into the weekend.
01:31By the time we get to Saturday, parts of the south, with the help of a bit of sunshine,
01:35could easily see those temperatures getting into the low 20s, 22 or 23 Celsius,
01:40by which time the colder air has seeped further south, lying probably somewhere across northern England,
01:47the boundary between the warm air and the cold air.
01:50Now, it's going to feel even colder if you're stuck under the rain boundary that that weather front will be
01:55providing.
01:56Feeling quite chilly, I imagine, with the winds from the North Sea affecting the rain,
02:00perhaps southeast Scotland, perhaps parts of northeast England.
02:04Now, I say perhaps because this is the biggest uncertainty, where that weather front,
02:07where that line of cloud and rain and the boundary between the cold and the mild air is going to
02:12sit.
02:13Pretty happy that come Saturday, we'll kind of be split into four areas.
02:17There'll be a zone somewhere across the south that's generally dry and bright.
02:20The threat of showers across the far south with the warmer air.
02:24Something a bit chillier, but generally drier across the north of Scotland.
02:28And then this zone where that weather front is sitting.
02:30But that's far from certain where that weather front is sitting,
02:33as I can try and show you here when we look at the Met Office ensembles.
02:37This is showing the rainfall through Saturday.
02:40It's a bit of a messy one.
02:41If we zoom in, I can highlight a couple of examples.
02:44This one here, for example, there's Scotland and there's that weather front sitting in just pretty much as we had
02:49it a minute ago.
02:50But this one, just below it, actually has that weather front quite a bit further south,
02:54clear of Scotland, sliding more across northern England and into Wales.
02:59This one here has the weather front a little further north,
03:01with the showers as a result also a little further north across the south.
03:05So it's a question of pinpointing the details and just how the UK will be broken up for the course
03:12of the weekend by that weather front.
03:14Another way of showing that is showing where the weather front is lying.
03:17Now, this is showing the European model, the red lines.
03:22When we run the model many times, each of the ensemble members is a red line for where that weather
03:28front could be.
03:29Quite tightly close together in the European model.
03:32But the Met Office model, it was on a second ago, much more higgledy-piggledy, a much broader spread when
03:38compared to that European model,
03:40which is much, much closer together.
03:42So much more consistency within the European ensemble compared to the Met Office ensemble.
03:48But they're all broadly in that same kind of ballpark.
03:51But it will make a big difference.
03:53Just, you know, 50 miles either side could make a big difference to your day, depending on where that dividing
03:58line is.
04:00And likely to see some ripples and some waves along that weather front as well.
04:05So its exact position, its exact trajectory, how quickly it moves, still opens quite a bit of doubt for Saturday.
04:11But we are likely to have that kind of, as I say, four-way split.
04:15Something a bit cooler but a bit drier across the far north.
04:18That weather front providing some cloud and rain.
04:20And then in the south, a drier slot with some sunny spells.
04:23And then the threat of showers coming up across the far south.
04:27And I think we'll see more of those showers developing as we go through the weekend.
04:30That low that's picking up down to the southwest, drawing in some warmer air, which is why the temperatures are
04:36rising.
04:36But also with the low pressure, things becoming more unstable.
04:39We could see some heavy and thundery showers breaking out across France in that setup on Saturday.
04:44And then on Saturday night, they may drift further north to provide some heavy downpours across southern counties through the
04:52early hours of Sunday morning.
04:53So that's an area that needs watching the potential for some heavy showers in the south on Saturday night.
04:58By this stage, that weather front is kind of weakening.
05:02And generally, everything heading out into the North Sea through the course of Sunday.
05:07The winds picking up from the northeast.
05:09That'll bring a fresher feel.
05:11So we'll see the cooler air drifting south as we go through Sunday.
05:16And at the same time, a little area of low pressure, a little swirl here, bringing some more rain to
05:20the northwest.
05:21But many places in between looking dry and fine on Sunday.
05:24But that northerly flow at the surface bringing the cooler air right across the UK as we head into the
05:32new working week.
05:33And it's not just at the surface.
05:35This is the jet stream wind.
05:36So the wind's high up in the atmosphere also coming down from north to south with low pressure sitting to
05:42the east of us, high pressure sitting to the west of us.
05:45So by this stage, that reverse S has elongated even more.
05:50Proper trough system out into the southern central portions of the Atlantic just to the southwest of Iberia.
05:57We're there trapping the hot air down across North Africa and allowing that cooler air to be in place across
06:02the UK.
06:03So we're back in the cooler air to start next week with low pressure sitting to the east, high pressure
06:08sitting to the west.
06:10And actually something similar to this weather pattern likely to be in place for much of next week, it looks
06:16like.
06:16That's the most likely weather pattern when we run the ensemble, when we run the computer model many, many times.
06:22The most likely set up, 44% chance that we've got low pressure sitting here, drawing down the north or
06:28northwesterly winds, bringing a cooler feel.
06:30High pressure sitting out to the west.
06:32That's going to bring quite showery conditions.
06:34That's the most likely set up.
06:36But even the second and third most likely set ups, something pretty similar for Monday.
06:40This one here doesn't have the low quite as close, but it still has a northwesterly wind.
06:46And even as we go through pretty much all of next week, the weather patterns don't look like shifting too
06:51much.
06:51Dominated by blue maps suggesting the temperatures will be below average.
06:5541% that that same weather pattern is in place with the low across Scandinavia, drawing down the winds from
07:01the northwest.
07:02The high trying to push in a little bit.
07:04That's the second most likely scenario that high builds in.
07:06And if that were to be the case, then western areas in particular would see some dry and fine weather.
07:11But always staying on the cool side.
07:14And even through Wednesday and Thursday, cyclonic is dominating.
07:1938% chance that that weather pattern is still in place through Wednesday.
07:23But even that second most likely is a 25% chance.
07:27So one of these two, over 50% chance with low pressure sitting to the north.
07:31High pressure now sitting down to the southwest.
07:33And that third most likely scenario isn't too different either.
07:38And for Thursday and Friday, again, these weather patterns almost on repeat.
07:43And showing you that it is likely to be on the cool side.
07:46But the maps remaining generally blue.
07:49So the probability plot also, as you'd expect, reflecting that as we go through the dates into next week.
07:54Notice how the blues take over really from Monday throughout next week.
07:59These mid and dark blues suggesting either a northwesterly or westerly dominated flow.
08:05And at this time of year, that is going to provide cool conditions and also plenty of showers on and
08:11off.
08:11But nothing exceptional at this stage in terms of rainfall.
08:15It doesn't look particularly heavy.
08:16So something to keep an eye on.
08:18But generally cool and showery as we go through next week.
08:20But as always the case at this time of year with showers, when they stop or when they pass by,
08:24when the sun comes out, there's a bit of power to it.
08:27So it will lift those temperatures or certainly make it feel a little bit warmer.
08:32So staying pretty mixed as we go into next week.
08:34At the moment, it doesn't look like there's anything extreme in the forecast.
08:38So as always, keep up to date for the day-to-day detail.
08:42The best way to do that is to follow us across social media.
08:45And if you're watching this on YouTube, well, you may as well just hit subscribe.
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