00:00It's been quite a cool and wet start to June but things are set to change this weekend as warmth
00:06and sunshine returns for many of us.
00:09That's because we're seeing the jet stream change its pattern. It's been pretty active through June so far and it
00:15will remain active through the rest of this week.
00:17But the pattern starts to amplify and buckle up to the north of the UK which will allow this area
00:23of high pressure down to the south to push in from more southern areas.
00:27So through Saturday we've still got an active area of the jet stream across more northern areas but to the
00:32south that area of high pressure is starting to dominate and that pushes further north through the latter part of
00:38the weekend.
00:38So pressure's building. We're also starting to see the warmth from the near continent build in once again as well.
00:44The temperatures will be rising above average as they have been below average through much of this week.
00:50So a warm weekend to come. How long will that last into next week?
00:53Well we'll find out through the second half of this 10 day trend but before then we've still got low
00:58pressure in charge and we've still got some rain through the rest of this week.
01:02A frontal system will push in through Thursday to bring some more or more widely wet day for much of
01:09the UK.
01:09The rain's not looking particularly heavy but it will be fairly persistent through much of the day.
01:15And it will feel quite humid actually with southerly air coming in. We're in the warm sector across much of
01:20the UK through Thursday.
01:21So it will feel quite humid by day and night over the next few days.
01:26And temperatures by day with very little sunshine will struggle to reach much higher than the high teens.
01:32But that is set to change throughout the rest of this week.
01:34It's looking a little bit warmer and drier as we head into Friday.
01:38This weather system pushes out into the east to allow some drier weather.
01:42Still quite showery and still pretty cloudy.
01:45It's still going to feel quite humid into Friday as well.
01:48So that weather system pushes out to the east and then the next one pushes in.
01:52It's a smaller area and it pushes just into more northwestern areas.
01:56But it will provide the focus for a bit more rain through Friday across parts of Northern Ireland through the
02:02beginning of the day.
02:02And that pushes across more central areas into the day.
02:05So quite a lot of clouds still around on Friday.
02:08But it's going to be comparatively a lot drier on Friday than Thursday.
02:12And as a result, with more sunshine around, it will feel a little bit warmer as well.
02:1723 degrees in the south and east, 20s across central areas of England as well as Wales and towards the
02:23high teens as we look towards Northern Ireland and Scotland.
02:26So temperatures are starting to rise.
02:29It's worth noting at this point, although it's going to be a warm weekend,
02:32we're not expecting temperatures anywhere close to the May heatwave temperatures,
02:36but they certainly will be above average and higher than they have been recently.
02:41And that's because high pressure is building in for the weekend.
02:43As we've already mentioned, it pushes up from the south quite slowly through Saturday.
02:48We've still got these weather fronts pushing down across more northern areas to the northwest.
02:53Much of Scotland really seeing some more unsettled weather through Saturday.
02:56It's quite a northerly wind direction as well for these areas.
02:59So for parts of Scotland, particularly north facing coast, it's going to feel quite fresh throughout much of Saturday, particularly
03:06through the morning.
03:07I think that pressure does start to build and the high pressure pushes further north into the afternoon.
03:12So we'll probably turn a bit drier by the end of the day here.
03:15But elsewhere across the UK, Saturday is looking like a pretty dry day.
03:19Plenty of sunshine across more southern areas, particularly the southwest, parts of South Wales, the Midlands.
03:26Northern Ireland getting away with a pretty dry day.
03:28But you can see the highest temperatures will be in the southeast, 25 degrees.
03:32It's most likely at the moment for Saturday, but quite widely across central and southern areas.
03:37Temperatures in the low 20s, the high teens as we look further north.
03:41But as I mentioned, it's going to feel pretty fresh across the far north.
03:44We hold on to this northerly wind direction across more eastern areas through Sunday.
03:48This is the area of high pressure starting to push northwards.
03:51It's quite an elongated area of high pressure, quite a narrow area too, which will mean that it's not going
03:57to stick around all that long into next week.
04:00But it does mean that Sunday is looking like a widely dry day across the UK.
04:06Notice this northerly wind, though, down across eastern areas will bring a bit of a chill to the coastal areas
04:13as well.
04:13And it's worth noting, as well, sea temperatures are still pretty cool and any inland cold water could bring the
04:19risk of cold water shock.
04:21So if you are planning on heading to the beach or to any other water sources, do take extra precautions
04:27and follow the advice of local authorities.
04:30But otherwise, we're going to see pretty high UV levels, high pollen levels as well through Sunday.
04:35And temperatures climbing towards 26 degrees across the south east.
04:40So this isn't defined as a heat wave, but temperatures will be above average for this point in June for
04:46a vast majority of the UK.
04:49Now, that high pressure will stick around as we head into the start of next week.
04:54But as I mentioned, it's quite an elongated area of high pressure, so it does slip away ever so slowly
05:00to the east.
05:01And in its place, this pretty large area of low pressure builds in from the Atlantic.
05:08Now, through much of next week, we will see this area of low pressure dominate our weather,
05:12but not really in a way that we see widely wet and windy weather,
05:16as it pretty much sits out to the west of the UK, driving in these southerly winds.
05:22It's not to say it's going to be an entirely dry week ahead.
05:26We are going to see more in the way of rain compared to the weekend as we head into next
05:30week.
05:31And this is the most likely pressure pattern for Monday.
05:34As you can see, we've got this area of low pressure out to the west,
05:37driving in wetter weather across more parts of the southwest as well as the northwest, actually.
05:44I could see some weather fronts push in.
05:46And throughout next week, we see very little change in the weather pattern.
05:50In fact, through Tuesday, we've still got the same regime as the most probable.
05:55The percentages do come down as we come through the week.
05:57That's pretty normal for forecasts at this time lead.
06:01But through Wednesday, again, it's exactly the same pressure pattern.
06:04This time, 47% chance, almost 50%.
06:07And even the other options still show that low pressure out to the west of the UK, most likely.
06:13And by Thursday, again, a 38% chance, but still that low pressure out to the west.
06:20Now, all of these drive this southerly wind direction, which is still a pretty warm direction.
06:26So temperatures will be remaining on the warmer side.
06:30They'll average through much of next week.
06:33And with an area of low pressure out to the west, it's parts of the northwest which are more likely
06:38to see higher rainfall totals throughout much of next week.
06:43How does the pattern change by the end of next week, Friday, into next weekend?
06:48Well, confidence does start to reduce.
06:50The most likely scenario is still this very same one with low pressure out to the west, somewhere to the
06:55southwest or northwest, really.
06:57There's also a chance we could see higher pressure building in from the south across more southern areas, which could
07:05bring some dry weather to more southern areas in particular.
07:09Potentially, we could see a high pressure push further north to cover more northern areas as well.
07:15That's a 10% chance you can see that with the high pressure centred a little bit further north.
07:19So we do start to lose confidence.
07:22We could potentially see a bit of a shift in the pressure pattern by Friday and into next week.
07:27To potentially bring more widely higher pressure, but also there's a good chance we just hold on to a similar
07:33weather pattern that we will have had through much of the week.
07:37So with low pressure out to the west, well, as I mentioned, that shows southerly winds.
07:43And you can see that on here.
07:44This is the meridional trend, so how northerly or southerly the winds are going to be.
07:50These are all the different recent model runs over the past few days.
07:55And this top run, I mean, all the past four or five runs have got a pretty similar trend that
08:01from Monday onwards through much of next week,
08:04there's quite a high percentage chance of those reds, which in this graph shows you southerly flow.
08:10So southerly winds are set to dominate throughout much of next week, which means temperatures above average for the time
08:17of year.
08:18Not necessarily widely really hot, but I think it's going to be warm for much of next week.
08:23And you can see that here. This is the anomaly temperatures compared to average for this time of year across
08:28the UK for the week as a whole.
08:32You can see the whole of the UK is in those reds, which shows above average.
08:36But it's particularly the south and east, central and eastern areas of England where we see temperatures a little bit
08:42higher than that above average.
08:44So there's a chance that if we see that high pressure push in a little bit from the south, particularly
08:48towards the end of next week,
08:50we could see some rather warm temperatures, potentially fairly hot temperatures across the far south and east.
08:57Across the north, still quite warm, but not as warm as elsewhere in the country.
09:02What does that mean for rainfall?
09:04Well, we're looking at quite a northwest-southeast split through much of next week.
09:08It won't be entirely dry across the south.
09:10We could see some frontal systems that push in from the north and west, extend from time to time a
09:16little bit further south.
09:17But I think drier weather will probably dominate, particularly southern and eastern areas of the UK,
09:23with wetter weather being more focused across the north and west.
09:27And if you're somewhere between the southeast and the northwest,
09:30well, your chances are you'll probably have some wetter days, some drier days through next week,
09:34just depending on the exact position of that area of low pressure and the timing of any frontal system.
09:41So you're somewhere in between.
09:42But I think if you're looking for drier weather, southeast, more likely to be wet across the north and west.
09:49So what does that mean for temperatures?
09:51Well, as we've already mentioned, temperatures are set to be above average through much of next week.
09:56You can see this. This is for London, the meteogram.
09:59So after a pretty cool end to this week, temperatures come above the climatological average,
10:06which is this thick red line here.
10:09Throughout the weekend and into next week, they remain on the higher side as well.
10:14We do get a bigger spread in those probabilities,
10:16just as there's potential for that lower pressure or higher pressure to dominate.
10:20It would have to be more widely higher pressure to bring those higher-than-average temperatures.
10:25This is going up to more of the extremes, which would be the kind of higher 20s
10:31throughout the end of next week and into next weekend.
10:35So still a lot to play for for the latter part of next week and into next weekend,
10:40particularly across southern areas,
10:41because it just really depends how much we see that high pressure and low pressure dominate.
10:45Let's just have a quick look at Belfast, somewhere else, somewhere further northwest,
10:49where we'll probably be closer to that area of low pressure.
10:52You can see those temperatures, there's not as much spread in the temperatures,
10:56not until later on.
10:57Even then, it's not quite as much of a spread.
10:59And the temperatures do come above average, but they just stay pretty close to average,
11:04so only just above.
11:05So it's not looking quite as warm across the north and west.
11:08And this is for the rainfall as well.
11:10You can see we've got an increased chance of rain throughout next week
11:14across more northern areas and more in the way of cloud as well.
11:18So a bit of a northwest-southeast split to come for many areas next week.
11:23But this weekend is looking widely warm and sunny,
11:26which I hope is good news for many of you.
11:29Hope you have a great weekend.
11:30Bye-bye.
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