- 2 days ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 13/05/2026. Cold northerly winds stick with us until the weekend but from next week changes in our weather pattern mean temperatures will slowly start to rise. At first just to usual spring time temperatures, but by the Bank Holiday weekend it could be quite warm for some. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
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NewsTranscript
00:00It's starting to feel pretty cold for May, but by the time we reach the next bank holiday weekend, well,
00:07it could be much warmer.
00:09There are signs of things finally changing, but it's not going to happen very quickly, because at the moment we've
00:15got pretty cold air with us,
00:17thanks to these northerly winds that have been with us for quite a while now.
00:21Now, we're sticking with the northerly winds through the rest of this week.
00:25Cold northerly winds pushing in through the weekend as well.
00:29But then by the start of next week, the signs of change begin to show.
00:33As we move into southwesterly winds, Atlantic air starts to move in.
00:38Now, it will likely be quite wet to start next week for some areas, but by the end of next
00:43week, well, that's when there's signs of high pressure and drier weather to come.
00:48More on that in a bit.
00:50For now, we'll stick with those northerly winds for the rest of this week and into the weekend.
00:54And we'll start to see this area of low pressure develop down at the North Sea, bringing cold winds to
01:00easterly areas in particular through the next few days.
01:05And Thursday is going to be another very showery day.
01:08Some of these showers could be quite slow moving.
01:10They bring a risk of thunder as well as hail.
01:12Quite wintry in nature, to be honest with you.
01:14And with those northerly winds, it's going to feel much colder than these temperatures suggest, which are both below average.
01:21And into the evening, we will expect those showers to fade away a little bit.
01:25We've got high pressure moving in, a ridge of high pressure just for a time.
01:28So it turns a little bit drier, particularly across western areas into Friday morning.
01:33So we are expecting a touch of frost across more northwestern areas.
01:38Across the east, this cloud lingers.
01:40So it's going to be cold, but likely not particularly frosty.
01:43And that's thanks to this area of low pressure out in the North Sea that will linger through Friday, bringing
01:49many eastern areas a bit of a windier and cooler picture.
01:54Meanwhile, in the west, we've got that ridge of high pressure pushing in.
01:57So Friday does look like a drier day after those frequent showers through Wednesday and Thursday.
02:03There's still a few showers, as you can see here and there, but nowhere near as many.
02:06And they will be nowhere near as heavy either.
02:09So more in the way of sunshine to come, particularly across western areas on Friday.
02:14Still some brighter weather across the east coast, but I think the wind's going to make it feel quite chilly
02:19here still.
02:20And across the southeast, we're closer to that rain from that low pressure when it could be quite damp into
02:26the afternoon as well.
02:28And then we begin the weekend.
02:30And that ridge of high pressure sticks with us into the start of the weekend.
02:34It's likely to be a pretty cold start to the day on Saturday, but a bright one and a calmer
02:40one as well.
02:41The winds look much lighter through Saturday.
02:43It's definitely going to be the drier day of the weekend on Saturday because this front in the west moves
02:48in for Sunday.
02:49Now, these are the temperatures. Maximum temperatures are around 15 or 16 degrees in the southeast.
02:55Still a little bit below average, but with lighter winds and a little bit more sunshine, I think it's not
03:00going to feel too bad.
03:02And ahead of this front, though, we could start to see a few showers developing across more southern areas into
03:07the late afternoon.
03:09They don't look particularly heavy, but I think they could last a little while if you do get caught in
03:13one.
03:14So Saturday looks like the drier day of the weekend.
03:17This weather front pushes eastwards through Saturday night into Sunday.
03:22So by Sunday morning, it's stranded across the country and with quite light winds as well.
03:27It's likely to develop waves on it too, which could allow the rain to be quite heavy through Sunday, particularly
03:34across southern areas of England.
03:35We could start to see some heavy showers get mixed in with this frontal rain as well.
03:40So that's one to keep an eye on.
03:42I think it could be quite a damp day across more southeastern areas of England in particular.
03:46Still some dry weather around on Sunday, particularly across western areas, parts of West Wales, the southwest of England, northern
03:53areas of the UK.
03:55I mean, some drier weather here and there, but temperatures are still going to be below average 11 or 12
04:00degrees.
04:00A little bit warmer than it has been, but not quite warm enough for many of us, I'm sure.
04:06But that trend is set to rise.
04:09Now, frost is something we've been talking about quite a lot over the past couple of weeks because we've had
04:14quite a lot of frost for this late in the spring.
04:18And we are going to see some more frost through the next few days.
04:21Now, this shows us the probability of temperatures being greater than zero degrees.
04:25This is at 6 a.m. on Friday, and I'll show you the next few days as well.
04:31So where the chance is really low, the darker colours, that shows us where the temperatures are likely to be
04:36below zero.
04:37So where we're expecting an air frost.
04:39So you can see on Friday morning, we've got quite a widespread frost developing for many northern areas, parts of
04:46Wales.
04:46I think southern areas of England could also see a frost on Friday morning too.
04:51On Saturday, we're starting to see temperatures rising a little bit by Saturday morning.
04:55But again, it's set to be a chilly start for northern areas and parts of Wales.
05:00And then Sunday, that warming trend increases.
05:03So you can see it's mainly restricted to parts of Scotland, some rural areas of northern England too.
05:10However, we do have a little bit of uncertainty depending on where exactly that front's lying, that wave that develops
05:16on it.
05:16Well, that will have knock-on effects on exactly how much cloud there will be.
05:20So I think we could see some frosty weather to start the day across parts of central Wales down into
05:27central England as well.
05:29And then Monday, well, there's a change into Monday morning of the next weather front pushing in.
05:35And as that weather front clears away to the east on Sunday night, we could see it linger a little
05:41bit, which would hold on to the cloud across the east.
05:44And then in the west, well, we could see a frost developing.
05:48But I think it's really only the far north where we're likely to see a frost.
05:52And then into next week, well, that risk continues to reduce.
05:56So those that have been worried about the frost risk, I think the risk isn't completely gone.
06:00But we're not going to see as many frosts into next week, which is much better than it has been
06:06lately.
06:07And as I mentioned, there's a change in the first part of next week.
06:11Those southwesterly winds move in.
06:13We've got Atlantic air moving in, as well as some weather fronts.
06:17There is some uncertainty in the exact timing of this weather front on Monday.
06:21The models are starting to make it move in earlier and earlier.
06:25So we could see that rain come in a little bit earlier on Monday than we are first expecting.
06:32But with those southwesterly winds, that will mean temperatures will be rising.
06:37Now, it's not going to start off particularly mild.
06:39You can see these are the temperatures compared to average for the time of year.
06:43And actually, temperatures are just going to average.
06:45We've been well below average all week.
06:47And so temperatures will be much closer to average.
06:51But with southwesterly winds and weather fronts moving in to the west, well, that also means there's going to be
06:56some rain around, too, particularly across western areas.
07:00So it's actually looking like a wetter than average couple of days across western areas, parts of Wales, northwest England,
07:07northern Ireland, western Scotland as well.
07:11Now, how does the trend change through the week?
07:14Well, I've hinted that high pressure is on its way, but how long is it going to take to move
07:19in?
07:19Well, that's the big question, really.
07:21I think by Tuesday, these are the most likely pressure patterns.
07:25And the most likely pressure pattern is pretty similar to Monday.
07:27I think low pressure is still going to be with us into Monday with that wet weather continuing to push
07:33in to the west.
07:35By Wednesday, well, the most likely actually has got high pressure moving in from Scandinavia and the near continent.
07:41They kind of merge together and start to build up from the south, pushing that low pressure further west back
07:48out into the Atlantic.
07:49So that can move the wetter weather further away from the UK.
07:53So it could turn a little bit drier from Wednesday into next week across those western areas.
07:59But we see some quite persistent rainfall through Monday and Tuesday next week.
08:03Well, it could be quite wet, a wet couple of days for parts of southwestern Scotland, northwestern England in particular.
08:11Now, we've got two different model comparisons here.
08:14This is the Met Office model and this is the European model here.
08:19Now, both of them are highlighting that many western areas are likely to see quite a lot of rainfall over
08:24the 48-hour period of Monday and Tuesday next week.
08:28The Met Office model is going for quite a lot of rain, over 100 millimetres of rain over that 48
08:32-hour period.
08:33Now, that is not looking quite as likely as the European model at this stage, but it's something we're keeping
08:39an eye on.
08:39And I think it's just worth noting that it could be quite damp, really, for a couple of days.
08:43And it's really not been that wet so far this month.
08:47It was quite dry through April and May so far.
08:49We've only seen nearly just 20% of the average rainfall for the month and we're nearly halfway through the
08:55month.
08:55So, it has been a dry month so far, but it could be a wet couple of days for these
09:00western areas.
09:02Though both of these show still going to be pretty dry, actually, in the south and east.
09:06So, I think with milder air coming in for more southern, south and eastern areas of England,
09:11it's going to be a pretty fine start to the week with a bit more warmth and sunshine and dry
09:16weather around as well.
09:18And then there's a change into the start, excuse me, into the start of, into the latter part of next
09:26week.
09:27The start of next week, we've got westerly winds dominating, southwesterly at times.
09:32They could be quite strong.
09:34Temperatures much closer to average, where they have been much, much below them.
09:40And the rain focused in western areas.
09:43It does look quite dry, though, in eastern areas.
09:46So, it's a gradual trend to higher temperatures into the start of next week.
09:53So, we start the week with temperatures much closer to average.
09:56But by the end of next week and the start of the bank holiday weekend,
10:00temperatures could be above average, possibly in the low 20s for some areas.
10:06But as that is 10 days away, there are some details to work out.
10:11But why is that warming trend moving in?
10:14Well, that's because there's going to be a move from low pressure to high pressure dominating our weather.
10:19And you can see that here.
10:21Blue show low pressure dominating and red and orange colours show high pressure dominating.
10:27And from the middle part of next week, that high pressure starts to win out.
10:32Now, there's a few different shades of orange and red here,
10:36showing there's a few different situations as to where that high pressure will be situated.
10:41And that does have knock-on effects as to what weather we can expect.
10:46Now, we're expecting to see a kind of Scandinavian high, high pressure in the east to start the week.
10:52And then it becomes more centred across the UK as we move into that bank holiday weekend.
10:58Now, whatever position that high pressure brings, well, all of them bring less cloud,
11:04a little bit more sunshine and lighter winds,
11:07which means temperatures will be on the rise through next week.
11:12We start in a very below average position.
11:15As you can see, we've got Plymouth on the top here and Newcastle in the bottom.
11:19If you look anywhere across the UK, there will be a similar trend.
11:23Now, temperatures slowly start to rise from the start of next week to around average for the time of year.
11:30So, normal spring temperatures return from the start of next week.
11:34And then it's from the latter part of next week, from Thursday onwards,
11:38temperatures could rise above average, approaching 20 degrees for some areas across southern areas.
11:45We could be closer to the mid-20s, possibly for some areas in the southeast by the bank holiday weekend.
11:54But there is quite a big spread in these box and whiskers plots, as you can see,
11:58because there is a little bit of uncertainty.
12:00That's not unusual at these time leads.
12:03And that's brought by slight differences in the positions of the high pressure.
12:08So, by the bank holiday Saturday, well, the high pressure could be situated quite centrally over the UK.
12:15And there would have been a lot of dry and sunny weather quite widely, particularly in western areas.
12:22We could see an easterly wind returning, which would bring more cloud to eastern areas and a cold feel too.
12:29But there's also a situation when that high pressure is situated more to the east of the UK.
12:36And so, low pressure still approaches from the far west,
12:39which means places like the far southwest of England, northwestern Scotland could continue to see some wetter weather,
12:46perhaps some cooler weather too.
12:48So, it's around the perimeters of that high pressure where we could see some slight differences,
12:53some wetter weather, some cooler, cloudier weather.
12:55I think more central areas of the UK are more likely to see that drier and warmer weather.
13:01But whatever position of that high pressure, I think is likely to set in.
13:06It's quite a strong signal at this stage.
13:08And there is a strong signal for the trend of temperatures to rise above average,
13:13as they have been a little bit below average for a little bit too long now.
13:17Thanks for joining me. Bye-bye.
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