- 5 hours ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 17/06/2026. Whilst southeastern parts are having a heatwave to end this week it’s a fresher and wetter picture further northwest. High pressure will then bring a fine weekend for many before low pressure to the west signals the potential for heat to build from the south for next week. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
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– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
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– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00In this week's 10-day trend, there's a lot of talk about heat. It's already going to be pretty hot
00:05across parts of the southeast through the end of this week.
00:08But will the heat become more widespread, perhaps even more intense as we go into next week?
00:13Well, a bit of uncertainty about that. I'll come on to it in a second.
00:16But let's look at next week on the whole. And this is our pressure anomaly chart from ECMWF.
00:22And the pinks showing that higher than average pressure, most likely on the whole for next week, across the whole
00:29of the UK.
00:30And actually across much of Europe as well. And with that, then, as you would expect with higher pressure, well,
00:36it's looking largely dry.
00:37Drier than average across central southern parts of the UK, much of central Europe as well.
00:42Just the far north of the UK, perhaps having slightly more rain than we see at this time of year.
00:48Worth bearing in mind, this is looking at the whole week. And so, you know, it doesn't mean it's going
00:51to be totally dry.
00:52There could be some rain around and there is some uncertainty.
00:55But also worth highlighting the temperatures. It does look like it will be significantly warmer than average on the whole
01:02next week, particularly towards southern parts of the UK.
01:05But before we get on to the whys, let's look at what's happening through the next few days.
01:11And currently, we have a bit of a jet stream across us, yes, and low pressure towards the northwest of
01:16the UK.
01:17And they are going to interact of sorts. But this low pressure, it's been lingering, lurking to the northwest of
01:23us through much of this week.
01:24And it's the reason that whilst we've had some warmer, hotter weather towards the southeast, we've had cooler, showery, wetter,
01:32cloudier weather towards northwestern parts.
01:35And there's more of that to come through the next few days.
01:38We do have this frontal system lying across the UK at the moment.
01:42And this has various waves coming towards us along this front.
01:46And these waves will be bringing pulses of heavier, more intense rain, particularly to northwestern areas as we go through
01:54Thursday and also Friday.
01:55You can see a wave of rain coming through on Thursday, then another one coming through on Friday, all the
02:00while towards the southeast, staying largely dry.
02:03And we're then going to see high pressure building through into the weekend.
02:08So for Saturday and Sunday, even northwestern parts should turn mostly dry, not totally dry.
02:14There will be a few spots of rain around the odd shower here and there.
02:18It's worth looking at some of the rainfall totals we can expect.
02:21On Thursday, it could be pretty wet across northwestern parts of England, Wales and towards Scotland and Northern Ireland, maybe
02:2720, 30 millimetres in some places.
02:29But perhaps Friday bringing some heavier rain, especially to western parts of Scotland.
02:34Now, here I have our 24-hour rainfall totals being forecast by both the Met Office, ECMWF, the European Centre
02:41for Median Range Weather Forecasting, and GFS, the American model.
02:44And what you can see is, well, they're in good agreement for the position of that waving front.
02:50And so all going with the rain over mainly Scotland, Northern Ireland, perhaps clipping the far northwest of England and
02:56western Wales as well.
02:57Perhaps the GFS, however, is a bit wetter across western high grounds of Scotland.
03:06ECMWF and the Met Office, we're going with maybe 30, 50 millimetres perhaps in the wettest spots.
03:12So a significant amount of rain, but not exceptional.
03:15And quite widely, 10 to 20 millimetres, that kind of thing.
03:18EC ever so slightly further south and east, but generally, they're in pretty good agreement.
03:23That's interesting for something that's coming up later.
03:25But a big talking point are our temperatures.
03:28How hot is it going to get and how hot will it be as we go into next week?
03:34Well, as well as bringing a fair amount of rain, this waving frontal system is also forming the boundary between
03:39fresher air towards the northwest of us and hotter air towards the southeast.
03:44Whilst we are going to drag in more of that hotter air on Friday, we could see that fresher edging
03:51a little bit further south and eastwards again for Saturday as that front pushes its way across.
03:56So in the southeast, Saturday looks ever so slightly less hot than it will be through Friday.
04:02But I just wanted to highlight where this heat is coming from.
04:05And as well, it's partly because of how hot it is.
04:08We have a bit of a heat dome across western Europe at the moment.
04:11And that is becoming more widespread through the next few days.
04:16Temperatures in some places exceeding 40 Celsius.
04:18In France, for example, some station records, Paris, could have its hottest June day.
04:24So that's worth bearing in mind.
04:27Let's look at the temperatures that we can expect then day on day.
04:30For Thursday, and yes, it's a wet picture like I highlighted towards the northwest.
04:33And we do have a northwest-southeast split with our temperatures towards the southeast.
04:37High 20s, quite likely.
04:39So some places likely to get above their heat wave threshold.
04:43Further north and west, though, temperatures markedly down.
04:46Want to highlight at this point that we could see some thunderstorms developing in the southeast because of that hot,
04:52humid air that we have across us.
04:54By Friday, temperatures likely to be a little bit higher perhaps in the southeast.
04:58At least 29, 30, perhaps 31 or 32 Celsius possible in parts of the southeast.
05:04Again, though, towards the north and west, a fair bit fresher.
05:07And we have that heavier, more persistent rain towards the northwest.
05:10So feeling a bit unpleasant at times, especially if you get any gusty winds with any heavier bursts of rain.
05:16Like I mentioned on Saturday, temperatures going down ever so slightly across parts of the southeast.
05:20But only by a couple of degrees, really, that kind of thing.
05:23And elsewhere, it might actually feel a little bit warmer.
05:26Well, it will feel a little bit warmer because there's less rain around, a greater chance of seeing some sunshine.
05:31As I mentioned, though, it's not totally dry this weekend.
05:33A few showers are possible across parts of Scotland, maybe a few towards the south as well.
05:38By Sunday, perhaps the brightest day of the weekend for many of us.
05:42Less cloud, less likely to see any spots of rain.
05:44And with that, even warmer, even hotter, really, towards the south.
05:49And worth highlighting that the heat will have spread a little bit further west.
05:52So high 20s, quite likely, across some parts of, well, maybe South Wales and more towards some western parts of
06:00southern England into the Midlands.
06:02We could be looking at high 20s.
06:04So whether or not we see a heat wave, well, that all comes down to Saturday, really, because that does
06:08look like it will be the least hot day in the next few days.
06:12As a result, we may not quite get that three-day period in many places.
06:17But I think we just about will in some parts of the southeast.
06:21What happens thereafter, however?
06:23And, well, to get an understanding of that, we need to look across the other side of the Atlantic.
06:29The jet stream's running its way across, and that's allowing for an area of low pressure to develop.
06:35And how quickly, how deep, and how this then moves, well, that's really pivotal for what's going to happen with
06:42our weather during the early part of next week.
06:45Here I have the Met Office model, and you can see it brings this low pressure.
06:49It develops it, it deepens it, but it keeps it quite far out to the west of us.
06:54It then pushes its way northwards.
06:56With that, then, with that low pressure here, that would allow us to drag in that hot air that's across
07:02western Europe that I showed you earlier,
07:04and we will have across southern parts of the UK through this weekend.
07:08It allows that hot air to continue across us and, if anything, push a little bit further north.
07:14And, whilst there is some unsettled weather in association with this low pressure system, you can see there's a fair
07:20amount of rain,
07:21most of this is staying well to the west or northwest of us.
07:24But, not all models are in agreement with the positioning and the development of this area of low pressure.
07:31We can look at that in a different way here.
07:34So, here I have the Met Office model on the top, and I have the ECMWF, Member Zero, on the
07:41bottom.
07:42And, a couple of things.
07:43Well, you can see the stark difference between how it's handling this low pressure for this coming Monday.
07:48Notice, sorry, a fairly deep low far to the northwest of the UK in the Met Office model.
07:54For ECMWF, it really doesn't develop that low anywhere near as much,
07:57and, actually, it brings some smaller features closer towards the UK.
08:02Now, if this comes off, you would expect some more changeable weather.
08:05It could actually be pretty wet, depending on which model you look at.
08:10But, yeah, some more changeable weather if we see lower pressure closer towards the UK.
08:14And, perhaps more notably, with this low pressure, we're dragging in that hot air,
08:21and so it could be pretty hot across southern parts in particular, but perhaps further north as well.
08:25But, if we don't have that deep low to the west of us, then we're not going to have that
08:30real southerly flow.
08:31So, perhaps it could be a fair bit fresher than some models suggest.
08:36I do want to highlight, this is ECMWF Member Zero, but different members are showing different things,
08:41doing different things with the positioning of the low, and also higher pressure, which is near the UK.
08:45So, this one has something a bit closer.
08:48So, Member 1 has something a little bit closer to the Met Office model, but still that low pressure is
08:52not as developed,
08:53so you wouldn't expect it to be, perhaps, quite as hot.
08:56Member 2 has low pressure nearer, but still not quite as deep.
09:01Member 3 has, well, it's quite flabby system that we have across with that one.
09:06It's quite a slack setup.
09:07So, again, not really dragging in that hotter air from the south.
09:11Member 4, not too dissimilar.
09:13But Member 5, I wanted to get as far as Member 5 to just highlight that actually it looks very
09:19similar to the Met Office model
09:20in terms of the positioning of this low pressure, but it's a fair bit deeper.
09:25And if we see a deeper low, that would increase that southerly flow,
09:29and so we could see that hot or very warm air becoming more widespread, pushing across the whole of the
09:35UK,
09:36not being confined to just central southern parts.
09:40And, you know, in the southeast, it's really just been confined to there through this week,
09:44so that could be quite a change to what we've had recently.
09:47The other thing to bear in mind, and it's not just those temperatures that the position of that low will
09:52change,
09:53and I've already highlighted, but there could be some pretty wet weather around
09:56if we took that ECMWF deterministic at face value.
10:00So I showed you Member 0, and that had the potential to bring some pretty wet weather across many parts
10:06of the UK for Monday,
10:08which is a really different story to what the Met Office model and what the American model are going for.
10:13And so, ignore the label there, it says ECMWF, it should say 24-hour rainfall totals.
10:18But it is likely to be largely dry on Monday, just the potential for a couple of heavier showers,
10:25maybe some thundery showers that are being highlighted, but GFS.
10:28But it's also not worth discounting the ECMWF suggestion that it actually could be markedly fresher
10:36and also a fair bit wetter.
10:38Like I say, some of that rain could be quite heavy.
10:40Not the most likely scenario, however.
10:43Then one other thing that I wanted to show you is the thickness, it should be 1,000 to 850
10:49hectopascals,
10:50and the greater the thickness, the warmer the air that's coming through.
10:55And so what we can see is through Friday and into the weekend,
10:59that warmer air, that hotter air is really confined to just southeastern parts.
11:04But through the weekend, we can see it shifting a little bit further west.
11:08Yes, it gets edged back again on Saturday, as I mentioned before,
11:12but then by early next week, Monday and then more so Tuesday,
11:16hints that we could see that heat a bit more widespread across southern areas,
11:20and then by Tuesday pushing further north as well.
11:23Now, all of that is dependent on the position and the development of that area of low pressure
11:28that I mentioned out towards the Atlantic.
11:29So still a fair amount to play for at this stage.
11:33But really, there are kind of three setups for what we're going to see during the early to middle part
11:38of next week.
11:39Either that low pressure stays, well, to the west of us,
11:42but that could still bring a lot of fine weather and some hot weather as well,
11:47mainly in the south, and high pressure generally dominating.
11:51Or that low pressure comes closer towards us, like EC wanted,
11:55and that would bring a more unsettled picture,
11:57and it wouldn't be as hot as with the first scenario.
12:01Or perhaps the third scenario that has a deeper low pressure, still to the west of us,
12:07but that would allow for that hot air to spread more widely, push further north across more places.
12:13Now, until we get a better understanding about what this is going to do,
12:16it's difficult to get a good idea about what's going to happen later in the week.
12:20But as I showed you at the start, I think generally higher pressure more likely,
12:25generally dry, and warmer than average looks most likely as well.
12:28Of course, we will be keeping you up to date with the potential for any heat waves,
12:31any hot spells coming up through the next week or so,
12:34so make sure you're subscribed to our YouTube channel.
12:36Bye-bye.
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