00:03It feels like autumn has well and truly arrived, it's not going anywhere with some wet and
00:07windy weather on its way.
00:09It's been a bit wet and windy in places this afternoon, here's an area of low pressure
00:13just sat to the north-west of the country, it's dragged in some showers and some longer
00:17spells of rain.
00:19Now why has it changed into such an unsettled picture?
00:22Well, it's all down to the jet stream, the fast-flowing ribbon of air high up in the
00:27atmosphere and what we tend to find at this time of year is that the jet stream is relatively
00:32strong and what it does, it picks up areas of low pressure out to the Atlantic and swings
00:36them towards us in the UK.
00:38This one just off the coast of Newfoundland is of particular note as we head towards the
00:42weekend, being dragged up once again by the jet stream and the potential to bring some
00:46quite wet and windy conditions as we head further into Sunday.
00:50But there's still quite a lot of forecast uncertainty around it and all very much depends on where
00:55abouts it sits on the jet, so if it sits to the north, so the cold side of the jet, it
00:59can undergo some more development and potentially bring some quite strong winds to the country,
01:03but if it sits slightly further south it may not develop as much and therefore the winds
01:08may not be quite as strong.
01:10Before we get to the weekend though, let's take a look at Thursday where it's set to be
01:14a day of sunshine and showers.
01:16Now some of these showers could be quite heavy at times, some hail, possibly some thunder and
01:21lightning, and it's going to be a fairly breezy day, particularly if you do catch any of these
01:25heavier showers, some quite strong gusty winds associated with these.
01:29This area of low pressure still sitting to the north-west, so it's likely to bring longer
01:33spells of heavy rain towards north-west Scotland.
01:36Quite windy here too, a chance of some coastal gales once again around exposed coasts.
01:41But for many it's going to be quite a mixed day, heavy downpours one moment and then sunshine
01:46the next, and temperatures around average for the time of year, highs just about peaking
01:51into the 20 degrees Celsius in the south-east.
01:56Later Thursday through into Friday, low pressure still sat to the north of the country, still
02:02swinging in some showers, longer spells of rain, notice low pressure never too far away,
02:07so Friday's probably going to be a fairly similar day with a mixture of those dry spells and
02:12also some showers.
02:14The bulk of the showers are likely to move into western areas, once again the odd one
02:18or two could be heavy with some hail and thunder, and after a potentially quite a bright start
02:22across parts of the east and south-east, even here as we head into the afternoon, we could
02:26catch some of these showers, similar temperatures to Thursday, highs just pushing into 20 degrees
02:31Celsius across the south-east, but widely in the mid to high teens elsewhere.
02:36How about Saturday then?
02:38Well blink and you miss it, yes you guessed it, sunny spells and showers, once again the main firing
02:43line for those showers are going to be in the west, fairly similar temperatures.
02:47So the next few days, changeable, a mix of showers and also some sunshine, quite breezy
02:52too.
02:53Now this is when it starts to get a little bit complicated.
02:56This area of low pressure, which I pointed out earlier, will slowly start to sweep its way
03:02eastwards across the Atlantic, moving its way towards us as we head through into Sunday.
03:07But as I say, there's still a little bit of uncertainty as to towards the track of this
03:12area of low pressure and how much it's going to deepen, and this does have an impact on
03:16where the strongest winds are going to be and how strong they're actually going to be.
03:20So let's take a look at our global model then, where most of the members do actually keep
03:25the strongest winds out towards coastal areas rather than inland areas, but there are some
03:30members such as Member 8, Member 14, shown by the dark purple colours that do drag in
03:36some potentially quite strong gales, if not severe gales, around coasts of Northern Ireland,
03:42potentially North West England, western parts of Scotland.
03:45So we still need to take a look at the details for Sunday, where those strongest winds are going
03:50to be.
03:51Nevertheless, it's going to be quite a wet and windy day for all.
03:54Now at the moment, the preferred solution is this area of low pressure to track to the
03:58north-west of the country, so around a 70% chance of this taking place.
04:02So quite a mature low, so it's going to bring in a windy day, a chance of gales, particularly
04:07around exposed western areas, perhaps towards the far north as well.
04:10And there's going to be rain locally turning quite heavy and then a mixture of sunshine and
04:15showers.
04:16Now another potential solution is this one here, around a 20% chance of this one taking place.
04:22Now notice the area of low pressure is slightly shifted further south and east, more towards
04:27north-western parts of the UK.
04:29Now this low is going to be slightly less developed, so it's going to be more windy across the south,
04:35sunshine and showers across northern areas, but once again we'll see spells of rain, heavy
04:38at times, but this time more towards, more directed towards southern areas.
04:44So at the moment, this one is looking more likely.
04:46There's also one more solution, the area of low pressure situated in a similar location
04:52to solution two, but this area of low pressure is going to be quite a deep area of low pressure.
04:58So that's going to bring a risk of gales more widely across the country.
05:02Once again a chance of severe gales two.
05:04Rain for many areas of the UK, once again heavy and blustery at times.
05:08Now if we see a solution such as solution three, that's when we're starting to move into named
05:13storm territory.
05:16But as I say, around a 10% chance.
05:18So it's very unlikely, and at the moment it looks like the area of low pressure will be to the north-west.
05:24What does that mean for Sunday then?
05:26It's going to be unsettled.
05:28Outbreaks of rain, locally heavy.
05:30It's going to be windy with a chance of severe gales.
05:33Keep an eye out over the coming days as there's a good chance we could see some weather warnings
05:36issued and these might impact you.
05:40How about after that then, once this area of low pressure clears away and we move into next week?
05:45Well it's, at the moment, it's looking likely we're going to continue to see that westerly flow.
05:50So more showers, longer spells of rain pushing in from the west.
05:53Probably fairly similar conditions to what we'll have tomorrow and as we head through into Friday and Saturday.
05:59Now here it's looking like it's indicated that the far north-west of Scotland will see the wettest of conditions.
06:06But other solutions, if that low doesn't clear quite as quickly, indicates that there will be some wetter areas across north-western England,
06:12parts of Wales and south-west England too.
06:15Nevertheless, similar to the next few days, it's going to be western areas that will catch the bulk of the showers.
06:21Some drier, brighter interludes possible across the far south and south-east, but even here we could pick up some showers.
06:28So will it just remain showery all week?
06:31It's looking most likely that it will, though if we take a look at our European model, there are some members that do indicate possibly another area of low pressure,
06:39pushing in towards the middle part of next week.
06:42Member 48, member 46, for example, even member 4, just picking up a small-scale low just to the west or south-west of the country,
06:51possibly pushing in another spell of wet and windy weather.
06:54But if we take a look at the majority of the members, most indicating once again that westerly flow and that changeable regime.
07:02How about temperatures then?
07:03Once again, nothing significantly hot or cold.
07:06Here's average temperatures where we see the solid red line.
07:10So maximum average temperatures for the day.
07:12Notice our boxes are either around that red line or a touch below.
07:17So average temperatures, if not a little bit under.
07:20As we move further into the next couple of weeks, there's a bit more of spread.
07:23So some slightly longer boxes, which is not uncommon at that kind of lead time.
07:31So average temperatures for the time of year.
07:34So next week, changeable.
07:36We are still likely to see spells of rain, some showers and temperatures remaining around average.
07:42Now, obviously, across the country, we've had a very dry and warm summer.
07:45So the rain is needed.
07:47But if you're a little bit disappointed, perhaps you have outdoor plans, there's a slight hint of high pressure starting to build back through.
07:53Taking a look at our probability plot, high pressure shown by the reds, the orange, the yellow colours.
07:58It just starts to creep in as we head later into September.
08:02We can see low pressure still largely dominating.
08:06If we take a look at this in a bit more detail, here's most recent model runs, later model runs further below.
08:12And we can see earlier in the week, it was, well, there was an indication that perhaps low pressure will eventually come to an end and we see something a little bit more settled, once again shown by the red colours.
08:22But with more recent model runs, you can see that signal for something more settled is being pushed further and further back.
08:29So rather than perhaps more settled conditions towards middle of September, it's now possible that towards the end of September, we could see high pressure building through.
08:38But it's unlikely to be a dominant area of high pressure, but just perhaps something slightly less unsettled.
08:45So there we have it.
08:45It's going to be a changeable week.
08:47Do keep an eye out for warnings on Sunday to see if they impact you.
08:50And of course, for your day to day weather updates, don't forget to stay subscribed.
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