- 2 days ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 20/05/2026. The may warmth has returned this week, but high pressure is set to move in over the Bank Holiday to bring many a notably hot spell of weather that could last well into next week. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
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– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
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NewsTranscript
00:00The warmth has slowly been returning this week and as we head towards the bank holiday weekend
00:05it's going to be starting to feel quite hot actually as heat wave conditions are likely to be met from
00:11this weekend onwards.
00:13Initially the hot weather just arrives into southeastern areas but into the start of next week it will push further
00:20north.
00:20So by Monday and Tuesday more northwestern areas will see temperatures in the high 20s.
00:27We're likely to see 30 degrees across the south and central areas on multiple days over the next coming week
00:33which is pretty unusual for the time of year.
00:36In May we've only in the past had three consecutive days where we've had 30 degrees or more on our
00:43records
00:43and we could beat that as well as potentially coming close to our May maximum records.
00:49So this could be quite a notable event when it comes to heat.
00:54So how does that heat build in?
00:55Well these are the temperatures compared to average for Friday and into the weekend.
01:01You can see on Friday it's particularly eastern areas of England that are looking quite warm compared to the May
01:06average
01:07as well as parts of northeastern Scotland.
01:09That heat also into parts of the southwest still got actually quite cool compared to average across the far northwest.
01:15We've still got weather fronts here.
01:17I'll show you more information on that in a minute.
01:19It's on to Saturday that heat becomes more dominant across more southern central areas still up across northeastern England,
01:26eastern Scotland as well as northern Ireland's time to see temperatures above average.
01:30And then it's Sunday where the temperatures really start to climb.
01:33We're likely to see 30 degrees on Sunday particularly across the southeast but also into central areas.
01:40So temperatures well above average from Sunday onwards for much of England and Wales.
01:46And that heat is most likely to last into next week.
01:50So what's going on to change this weather from the west?
01:53So far this week we've had a lot of showers through the early part of this week and it will
01:59be turning drier.
02:00That's because the jet stream is becoming more amplified.
02:04You can see the jet stream here.
02:05It's quite a weak area of the jet stream but it becomes amplified nonetheless and high pressure builds in from
02:11the near continent.
02:12There's still fragments of the jet stream pushing up to the north and west.
02:17And by Saturday into Sunday there is still a weather front up to the north and west of the UK.
02:22And there is a little bit of uncertainty as to whether that would push in later on in the bank
02:27holiday weekend.
02:27But I think it's most likely that high pressure is going to keep those weather fronts at bay.
02:32It's also worth noting we've just got this tiny area of the jet stream here down towards Iberia.
02:39It's a cut off area of the jet stream.
02:42And that could push up in the early part of next week and could be the reason why this heat
02:48starts to break down.
02:49But at the moment there's no real signs of this high pressure, this heat breaking down in the near future
02:56once it does set in.
02:58So on Saturday you can see on the temperature gradient here we've got quite warm air from the near continent.
03:05The air has come up from Iberia.
03:06And that will push further widely across the UK as we head into Sunday.
03:13You can see the peak of the heat really starts to push in through Sunday quite widely across England as
03:19well as Wales.
03:20With that high pressure really dominating our weather.
03:24We're not quite there yet.
03:26We've still got a few weather fronts to push up from the north and west.
03:29That high pressure is not entirely dominant just yet.
03:32So through Wednesday evening into Thursday morning we'll see weather fronts push across more north and eastern areas of the
03:39UK and northwestern areas of the UK.
03:42Northern Ireland, western areas of Scotland are seeing a pretty damp day.
03:46It's not particularly heavy rain but there's going to be a lot of cloud associated with those weather fronts.
03:50Particularly across coastal areas, any high ground as well.
03:54A different story though for central and eastern areas as well as the south coast of England.
03:59More sunshine developing particularly into the afternoon temperatures climbing towards the mid-twenties.
04:04You can see 24 degrees, possibly 25 in the south and east.
04:09Then through Thursday evening that weather front continues to push up to the north.
04:14But you can see it does turn drier more widely across the UK.
04:16That's high pressure starting to build in from the south and east.
04:21So a bit of a damp start to the night but it should turn a little bit drier by Friday
04:25morning.
04:25But there's still a lot of cloud. You can't see that on the graphics but this cloud will be quite
04:28thick across coastal areas.
04:30West Wales, perhaps the coast of Cornwall as well.
04:33Seeing some quite misty weather to start the day on Friday.
04:37Very clear though to the east. Temperatures to start the day in the mid-teens.
04:41So a pretty mild night to come on Thursday night.
04:44Then on Friday those weather fronts have not disappeared just yet.
04:48It will be quite a slow process so that doesn't mean we're going to see loads of sunshine across the
04:52north and west on Friday.
04:54But it does look drier on Friday compared to Thursday and certainly compared to earlier on this week.
05:01In the south and east so that high pressure is getting to work and so there's going to be very
05:04little cloud in the afternoon.
05:06We all know the strength of the sun at this time of year is strong.
05:10And so it's going to feel pretty warm. Temperatures climbing towards 28 degrees across the south and east.
05:16We could see temperatures a little bit higher than that 29, possibly close to 30 if we do see very
05:22long-lived sunshine.
05:25But notice temperatures are widely into the low 20s.
05:2923 degrees for Newcastle here.
05:31So it's going to be a warm day quite widely on Friday.
05:35And then we start the bank holiday weekend and that's where the warm air really starts to build in.
05:40There's still a weather front scooping up to the north and west, pushing into northeastern areas.
05:46We'll bring a bit of cloud overnight. It should clear by the morning.
05:49And there is a weather front kind of lingering out to the north and west.
05:53So there's a few showers here and there.
05:55We could see a few showers across the far southeast parts of East Anglia, for example.
06:00Just an odd light shower into the afternoon.
06:02Earlier on this week, we were talking about the potential for thunderstorms and heavy showers, particularly across southern areas.
06:09And that risk has really lowered. It's not completely zero risk.
06:13So it's something to keep an eye on, just something in the back of your minds.
06:16But I think it's most likely to be a pretty dry day for most of us on Saturday.
06:20And the highest temperatures in the southeast.
06:23Highs of 29 degrees, but widely a very warm day.
06:26Temperatures in the 20s for most areas of the UK.
06:29That's just away from the very far north and west.
06:32We're a little bit closer to this weather front.
06:34It's quite a weak affair, the weather front.
06:35There could still be some brighter spells in between.
06:39But temperatures will take a little knock because of that.
06:43The heat will arrive into these areas later on into next week, however, most likely.
06:49Then we're on to Sunday.
06:50Still this weather front lingering up to the north and west.
06:53It's not going to make much progress, if any, at all, inwards into the UK.
06:57So for most of us, that's when the heat really starts to build.
07:01Widely a very sunny start to the day.
07:04Probably a pretty mild night as well.
07:06Plenty of sunshine into northern England, southern areas of Scotland, northeastern Scotland as well.
07:11Seeing a pretty bright day.
07:13And temperatures are likely to hit 30 degrees, possibly more than that, on Sunday.
07:18The temperature record for May is just over 32 degrees.
07:23So we could be coming close to some pretty exceptional May temperatures from Sunday.
07:28Closer to 30 degrees, the high 20s across central areas of England, down towards south Wales as well, the south
07:35coast of England.
07:36So pretty hot, to be honest.
07:38And even if you don't see 30 degrees, well, it is going to be feeling warm, particularly in that long
07:43-lived sunshine away from the coast.
07:45We'll start to see a bit of a sea breeze developing across the most coastal areas.
07:49So it will feel a little bit fresher for these areas.
07:52And then we move into the bank holiday Monday.
07:55That high pressure is not going anywhere for bank holiday Monday.
08:00We hold on to the heat.
08:02In fact, it might push more widely into Wales, further north into England, and parts of Northern Ireland, possibly parts
08:10of Scotland, starting to see some pretty warm weather as well.
08:12So high pressure is set to dominate from the start of next week, and it's likely to last.
08:19Now, there are a few changes in that position of that high pressure that could change the exact weather and
08:26where exactly will be the sunniest and the warmest.
08:29And this is the probability plot that shows the types of those high pressure.
08:34So this is the high pressure centred over the UK, this orange colour.
08:39And this is from the weekend, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, even Tuesday.
08:43The most likely position of that high pressure is for that high pressure to be centred over the UK.
08:47So that means most areas seeing warm, hot, sunny and dry weather.
08:54And then from Wednesday, Thursday onwards, we start to get a few more shades moving into here.
08:59And that's because that high pressure is likely to shift a little bit.
09:02Now, there's nothing majorly happening to our weather pattern to really push that heat out of the way, push that
09:07high pressure out of the way.
09:09So we're set to see high pressure dominate our weather in some way, shape or form.
09:14But the position of that high pressure may change.
09:16So there's potential for the high to push into more northern areas.
09:20So we could get some stuff coming into the south and west.
09:23Or it could push into what you can see this red colour, so Scandinavian high.
09:27It could push further east, which would allow a bit more of a northwesterly to come in as well.
09:33Let's have a look at the different scenarios, though, through next week.
09:37So this is the most likely pressure pattern for the back holiday Monday.
09:40As I said, we're likely to see that high pressure centred over the UK.
09:43You can see 91% chance, pretty high likelihood of high pressure centred over the UK.
09:49The colours here show the temperature compared to average.
09:53So it's likely to be pretty warm compared to average.
09:56Still quite warm temperatures, potentially still in the 30s into Monday as well across more southern areas.
10:03But by the time we get to the end of next week, well, there's much lower percentages here.
10:08That's not unusual.
10:09But there's also quite a few different iterations.
10:12So the highest chance, just nearly 20%, we've got this high pressure down to the south and west of the
10:17UK, which would allow more northwesterly weather.
10:21So it could turn a bit cooler and wetter from the north and west.
10:25But high pressure is still pretty close, which would mean it's probably going to be quite dry, but potentially just
10:31a little bit cooler than earlier on in the week.
10:34And then we've got some other pretty similar percent-rated chances.
10:38So we could still have that high pressure centred over the UK.
10:42Whether or not we hold on to the heat from the near continent, well, there's a question mark there.
10:46But that would still bring pretty dry and warm weather.
10:49All that high pressure just a little bit further south, again, allowing weather to come in from the Atlantic just
10:55around the peripheries of that high pressure.
10:58So some slight differences there, but all of them showing high pressure pretty close by.
11:04And with high pressure close by, well, that means it's likely to be quite dry compared to average across much
11:10of next week.
11:10Now, May is already a pretty dry month in the year for us, but it looks like it could be
11:16quite a lot drier than average,
11:18particularly where we would usually see wetter weather across any high ground.
11:22And so it is expected to remain dry through next week.
11:28But what about the temperatures?
11:31Well, we are quite confident the temperatures will remain high into the start of next week.
11:37Monday and Tuesday, that's when we've got that centred high pressure across the UK.
11:40We've got London on the top here and then Belfast on the bottom.
11:44So the temperatures rise through the weekend, remaining quite high.
11:49This is above the 20s, really, above that line.
11:52The temperatures remain in the 20s most likely all the way through until the middle part of next week.
11:58And then we get quite a large spread depending on the position of that high pressure, basically.
12:03And in Belfast, well, the temperatures gradually rise through the weekend.
12:07And then it's actually bank holiday Monday into the start of next weekend, next week, where we see the peak
12:13of the heat,
12:14which means that although you might not see the heat across more northwestern areas,
12:18initially it does look quite warm into the start of next week.
12:21And then beyond, it remains pretty warm as well.
12:24But it's into the end of next weekend, things potentially become cooler.
12:30Notice as well, the minimum temperatures coming quite a bit above average as well.
12:35So it starts to feel quite warm at night.
12:38So potentially quite a prolonged spell of hot weather, quite notable for this time of year.
12:44So we'll be keeping you up to date throughout the rest of this week and over the weekend.
12:48Thank you very much for joining me.
12:49Bye-bye.
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