Stay informed with the latest weather forecast video, covering rain patterns, temperature outlooks, and severe weather warnings. Updated every few days with expert analysis, from meteorologist Jane Bunn.
00:00Hello and welcome to this national Janesweather update for Friday. We have got a lot of cold air. Yes, it is Friday the 10th of October.
00:08But look at all that speckled cloud that is sitting there over the Bight, just ready to come into Tasmania.
00:13There is another cold outbreak on the way this weekend. Further north, we've got a heap of heat that is over the northern, pretty much half of the country.
00:21We have that now. It's going to stick with us as we go through the rest of spring, summer and into autumn.
00:26And then whenever our winds can turn northly from the right direction, depending on where you are, then you're going to get a blast of heat.
00:32So that is building to our north. The remains of the cloud band have dissipated, but we still have a lot of action expected in these eastern parts today.
00:39We've got severe weather warnings for damaging winds that have cold fronts that are crossing the Bight with all of that cold air that is in behind them.
00:46So let's have a look at day by day what to expect. So first of all, Friday, here we are, the 10th of the 10th.
00:51Have you a look at these blue and purple lines. That's the cold air, but also upper level energy, which is going to be important for what's happening further north.
00:58In the northern parts of the country, we've got the red and the purple indicating hot and very hot conditions.
01:04So spring is the fight between hot and cold. And wherever these try and interact, then we have interesting weather on the way.
01:13OK, so for today, Tasmania is getting hit. Just these parts of the southeast are being hit by cold fronts coming in and then sliding down.
01:20In southeast Queensland, more the interior of southern Queensland, northeast New South Wales.
01:25We've got showers and thunderstorms today, thanks to a trough that is running in through here.
01:28We do have activities up in the north there. It's looking very quiet over in the southwest.
01:33Let's move into Saturday. That's still in northeast New South Wales.
01:36It's now moving into southeast Queensland. We've got this system here.
01:40That's snow down to 600 metres at the bottom of Tasmania.
01:43Very chilly for this time of year. And that's nearly 1500 metres coming up.
01:47So there's our cold outbreak ready to move through. A bit more wet weather.
01:51Instead of just sticking to this coast, it does move inland a little bit, but not properly inland.
01:55Let's put the focus up in through here. We've got lots of activity that's brewing there.
01:59And all of this energy from the cold air is going to take this and push it eastwards.
02:04So let's watch that in action.
02:06As we move through Sunday, here it is.
02:08Energy in the southeast, cold air in the southeast.
02:10Snow to 1500 metres in through here. Snow to about 600 metres early on in the day in Tasmania.
02:17Meanwhile, rain spreading down in through here, along with hit and miss embedded showers and thunderstorms.
02:23But they don't connect.
02:24The rain sticks to the northern parts of New South Wales, into Queensland and into the interior and into the very north.
02:30Here is the cold outbreak and the showers that come with that.
02:33And there is a gap in the middle.
02:35All right, so there's Sunday. That clears out on Monday.
02:38Large ridge of high pressure that is now sitting over here.
02:41We've still got the remains of this into Monday in southeast Queensland and just that northeast corner of New South Wales.
02:47But this is still going here and should continue.
02:49We're moving into the wet season, so we expect to see that sort of day after day of wet weather that is up in the north.
02:54It's just when it actually comes down to the south, that is the difference in the weather pattern.
02:58So still got this here as you move through Monday.
03:01Now, having a look over in the west, we're now starting to see our next surge of heat coming in.
03:06Will it make it all the way to the southwest coast?
03:09Probably not.
03:10What you have here is high pressure out ahead.
03:13Winds travel in this direction, so it's a north easterly over in the west.
03:16But as soon as it hits that trough line, that's the end of the heat and the milder air comes in.
03:21So it's a delicate balance between high out to your east, surge of heat, and then cool change coming in.
03:27It depends where you are in that pattern as to what you're seeing at that particular time.
03:32Now, on that trough line, with that heat out ahead of it, we can also get showers and thunderstorms.
03:37So let's watch that move through.
03:38Here we have Tuesday.
03:39Here is that dipping down.
03:41You look for, instead of the horseshoe coming up in terms of the cold air, that's the horseshoe coming down, and you look for that weather pattern.
03:47Here is the trough signalling the end of the heat.
03:50So it's out ahead of that, but you need the high pressure system out to your east to kick that off.
03:55So here is all of our wet weather across the top, just starting to come down into here, and then milder air in behind it.
04:01High pressure now in through here by the end of Tuesday.
04:04So all of this warmth here is going to start sliding down into the southeast.
04:08There'll be a couple of days of incredibly above-average temperatures as you move through the mid to later part of next week.
04:15It ends with showers and thunderstorms on this line in through here, and then milder air coming in behind it.
04:20So that's Wednesday.
04:21Today, having a look at Thursday, here's the cold change by the end of that one.
04:25So that comes to a dramatic end as you finish the day on Thursday in the southeast.
04:30And, yes, there's another cold outbreak that's in behind that.
04:33The shower and storm activity gets very unorganised by the end of this because it's a full week away.
04:39So the models are saying very different things.
04:41So we wait for all of that to form a nicer pattern before we have higher confidence in it.
04:45But what we might see is this cooler air moving through the southeast to end next week.
04:51And we'll have some showers and storms ahead of that on that trough line.
04:54And into Saturday, it's moving in through here.
04:57Next high is moving across.
04:58So we'll have our next burst of heat start to move in.
05:01Does it reach the southwest?
05:02Potentially not because the next trough quickly comes in and so they miss out.
05:07All right.
05:07What might that all add up to?
05:09So lots of activity across the north, 25 to 50 millimetres.
05:12Let me just move to the AI forecasting through here.
05:15So 25 to 50 millimetres.
05:16We've got showers and thunderstorms plus those bands of rain that come through Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
05:22So that's early on in the period.
05:23In the southeast, a couple of cold fronts coming in.
05:26But that big temperature spike in between it might add up to the sort of 15 to 25.
05:31And, again, the western parts of Tasmania do quite well.
05:34Things looking very dry in the southwest are not overly hot because the heat comes out ahead and kind of misses that southwest corner.
05:42As always, head to Farm Online Weather for the latest.
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