00:00Hello and welcome to this Victorian Janesweather update for Monday.
00:04We have a huge band of cloud that is crossing the country.
00:07I'm going to zoom out just so you can see.
00:09A negative Indian Ocean dipole, this is a classic example of that,
00:13moisture pouring in from the Indian Ocean,
00:15meeting out with a juicy northwest cloud band
00:17and spreading right across the country.
00:20Now, in terms of the falls that we're seeing out of that,
00:22the heaviest is actually going to be in through here
00:24where we don't have any radar coverage today,
00:26but we're getting the remains of that as it crosses Victoria.
00:29In behind that, we've got a mix of sun and cloud.
00:31You can see this speckled cloud here indicating just how chilly the air is.
00:36Yes, we had the burst of warmer weather over the weekend.
00:39That is no more as soon as this moves on through.
00:42This band of cloud and rain is just very slowly moving northwards
00:45over the next couple of days before our next system comes in from the west.
00:48So let's have a look day by day what to expect in through here.
00:51This is the entirety of Monday.
00:54So the band of rain is now just up over those northern parts
00:57and very slowly moving northwards.
00:58So that's what we've got to expect on Monday.
01:01Into Tuesday, there's the band up over New South Wales.
01:04So we're not seeing that.
01:05There's just the hint of showers in that southwestern corner
01:07during the day on Tuesday.
01:09Heading into Wednesday, the next weather system is trying to come up
01:12or get some activity about the eastern ranges in through here
01:15and over the southwest.
01:17Into Thursday, again, repeat.
01:19There's a lot that's happening to our north,
01:21but we're northeast ranges and over in the southwest corner,
01:24perhaps into western Gippsland.
01:25So it's kind of a split thing.
01:27It's not strong instability as this one comes through.
01:30So there's Thursday.
01:32Let's now have a look at Friday.
01:34Western parts of Tasmania certainly get hit day after day.
01:37And look how cold this air is.
01:38That's 600 metres snow down to 600 metres in the southern parts of Tasmania
01:43by the end of the week.
01:44So we are not done with the cold air.
01:46We're not seeing it in Victoria until really next weekend.
01:49So I'll show you that in a sec.
01:51Here is Friday, the latest system that's coming through.
01:53Less of a northeast shower or storm experience.
01:56More of that coming into the southwest and potentially making it a little bit
02:00further through.
02:00So there's Friday and now into Saturday.
02:03And we've got some colder air that comes with it.
02:05Now direct your attention up in through here.
02:07There is the potential for something big to be brewing over the interior.
02:11Here we have Sunday, the potential for significant widespread rain.
02:16The question is, who is going to get it?
02:19This particular model here, which is known as the Euro, does like it for Victoria.
02:23Let's have a look at another one, which is the GFS, which is the USA model.
02:27That likes it to come through Sunday into Monday.
02:30So we'll see if that's right.
02:31Let's have a look at that Euro once again there and the cold air that comes with it.
02:35But here we have the Access, the Australian model.
02:38That doesn't like it at all.
02:40That has it up to the north.
02:41And also have a look at GEM, which is the Canadian model.
02:44That just likes a cold outbreak from the south.
02:45A regular cold front to come through.
02:47It doesn't have that rain with it.
02:48So it's not set in stone yet.
02:50It never is a full week out.
02:52That's why we wait until we get closer.
02:54We have all of the models saying something similar because then we'll have bigger
02:58confidence in what is likely to occur.
03:00Now this one model, which is the Euro, that has the potential for some good falls if it
03:04does actually come through.
03:05But otherwise we saw shower and storms up on the northeast ranges.
03:08About that, so you can get in the northeast and in Gippsland as well.
03:11And over the southwest, hit by week front after week front after week front, mainly Wednesday,
03:16Thursday, Friday, and then into the weekend.
03:19So what does that mean for Melbourne?
03:20We've got clearing skies is the trend for the afternoon.
03:24But you may have noticed it's rather chilly outside.
03:26No more of that weekend warps.
03:28That changed late last night.
03:29Actually, the proper cold change was in the early hours of the morning.
03:32But at least the winds are light and the sunshine is increasing.
03:36So yes, the top of 16 to start the week.
03:38Temperatures jump up again.
03:39We're looking at about 21, maybe 25, probably more like 23, 24 and through that.
03:45There is a fair bit of sunshine with it.
03:47And then we're in the low 20s potentially for the rest of the week.
03:50So that's a pretty good looking outlook considering what is coming.
03:53We know we've got those showers installed to our northeast and our showers to the southwest.
03:58Are we going to see any of that in through here?
04:00It kind of skips the Melbourne area, but you really can't rule them out.
04:03So there is the chance of a little bit of activity on each of these days.
04:07Now, the wind is going to pick up as we move through the later part of the week.
04:10So yes, we've got temperatures around 20, but it's going to come up with a gusty northwesterly wind.
04:15Temperatures decrease again as we go into the weekend.
04:17And that's when the wet weather picks up.
04:19Showers moving through.
04:20The potential for that band of that big significant area of rain that may go to our north.
04:25But we might see a little bit of that as we move through the Sunday and Monday part of the outlook.
04:29As always, head to Farm on Long Weather for the latest.
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