VIC Latest Weather Forecast Video

FarmOnline Weather

Stay informed with the latest weather forecast video, covering rain patterns, temperature outlooks, and severe weather warnings. Updated every few days with expert analysis, from meteorologist Jane Bunn.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to this Victorian Janesweather update for Monday.

00:04We have a huge band of cloud that is crossing the country.

00:07I'm going to zoom out just so you can see.

00:09A negative Indian Ocean dipole, this is a classic example of that,

00:13moisture pouring in from the Indian Ocean,

00:15meeting out with a juicy northwest cloud band

00:17and spreading right across the country.

00:20Now, in terms of the falls that we're seeing out of that,

00:22the heaviest is actually going to be in through here

00:24where we don't have any radar coverage today,

00:26but we're getting the remains of that as it crosses Victoria.

00:29In behind that, we've got a mix of sun and cloud.

00:31You can see this speckled cloud here indicating just how chilly the air is.

00:36Yes, we had the burst of warmer weather over the weekend.

00:39That is no more as soon as this moves on through.

00:42This band of cloud and rain is just very slowly moving northwards

00:45over the next couple of days before our next system comes in from the west.

00:48So let's have a look day by day what to expect in through here.

00:51This is the entirety of Monday.

00:54So the band of rain is now just up over those northern parts

00:57and very slowly moving northwards.

00:58So that's what we've got to expect on Monday.

01:01Into Tuesday, there's the band up over New South Wales.

01:04So we're not seeing that.

01:05There's just the hint of showers in that southwestern corner

01:07during the day on Tuesday.

01:09Heading into Wednesday, the next weather system is trying to come up

01:12or get some activity about the eastern ranges in through here

01:15and over the southwest.

01:17Into Thursday, again, repeat.

01:19There's a lot that's happening to our north,

01:21but we're northeast ranges and over in the southwest corner,

01:24perhaps into western Gippsland.

01:25So it's kind of a split thing.

01:27It's not strong instability as this one comes through.

01:30So there's Thursday.

01:32Let's now have a look at Friday.

01:34Western parts of Tasmania certainly get hit day after day.

01:37And look how cold this air is.

01:38That's 600 metres snow down to 600 metres in the southern parts of Tasmania

01:43by the end of the week.

01:44So we are not done with the cold air.

01:46We're not seeing it in Victoria until really next weekend.

01:49So I'll show you that in a sec.

01:51Here is Friday, the latest system that's coming through.

01:53Less of a northeast shower or storm experience.

01:56More of that coming into the southwest and potentially making it a little bit

02:00further through.

02:00So there's Friday and now into Saturday.

02:03And we've got some colder air that comes with it.

02:05Now direct your attention up in through here.

02:07There is the potential for something big to be brewing over the interior.

02:11Here we have Sunday, the potential for significant widespread rain.

02:16The question is, who is going to get it?

02:19This particular model here, which is known as the Euro, does like it for Victoria.

02:23Let's have a look at another one, which is the GFS, which is the USA model.

02:27That likes it to come through Sunday into Monday.

02:30So we'll see if that's right.

02:31Let's have a look at that Euro once again there and the cold air that comes with it.

02:35But here we have the Access, the Australian model.

02:38That doesn't like it at all.

02:40That has it up to the north.

02:41And also have a look at GEM, which is the Canadian model.

02:44That just likes a cold outbreak from the south.

02:45A regular cold front to come through.

02:47It doesn't have that rain with it.

02:48So it's not set in stone yet.

02:50It never is a full week out.

02:52That's why we wait until we get closer.

02:54We have all of the models saying something similar because then we'll have bigger

02:58confidence in what is likely to occur.

03:00Now this one model, which is the Euro, that has the potential for some good falls if it

03:04does actually come through.

03:05But otherwise we saw shower and storms up on the northeast ranges.

03:08About that, so you can get in the northeast and in Gippsland as well.

03:11And over the southwest, hit by week front after week front after week front, mainly Wednesday,

03:16Thursday, Friday, and then into the weekend.

03:19So what does that mean for Melbourne?

03:20We've got clearing skies is the trend for the afternoon.

03:24But you may have noticed it's rather chilly outside.

03:26No more of that weekend warps.

03:28That changed late last night.

03:29Actually, the proper cold change was in the early hours of the morning.

03:32But at least the winds are light and the sunshine is increasing.

03:36So yes, the top of 16 to start the week.

03:38Temperatures jump up again.

03:39We're looking at about 21, maybe 25, probably more like 23, 24 and through that.

03:45There is a fair bit of sunshine with it.

03:47And then we're in the low 20s potentially for the rest of the week.

03:50So that's a pretty good looking outlook considering what is coming.

03:53We know we've got those showers installed to our northeast and our showers to the southwest.

03:58Are we going to see any of that in through here?

04:00It kind of skips the Melbourne area, but you really can't rule them out.

04:03So there is the chance of a little bit of activity on each of these days.

04:07Now, the wind is going to pick up as we move through the later part of the week.

04:10So yes, we've got temperatures around 20, but it's going to come up with a gusty northwesterly wind.

04:15Temperatures decrease again as we go into the weekend.

04:17And that's when the wet weather picks up.

04:19Showers moving through.

04:20The potential for that band of that big significant area of rain that may go to our north.

04:25But we might see a little bit of that as we move through the Sunday and Monday part of the outlook.

04:29As always, head to Farm on Long Weather for the latest.

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