00:00Hello and welcome to this national Jane's Weather Update for Monday. We have got a huge cloud band out there today.
00:06It stretches right across the country. It's fed by moisture pouring in from the Indian Ocean, part of our negative Indian Ocean dipole that just encourages moisture to flow in.
00:16When that meets up with low pressure, then yes, it turns into rain for those that are in its path.
00:20Now you'll notice a gap in the radar in through here. There are no radars, there's no infrastructure out in that part of the world, but that's actually where the heaviest falls are likely to be today.
00:29So it moves across Western Australia, South Australia and into the South East.
00:33Once that has moved through, you see the speckled cloud there, so we've got another cold outbreak that is coming in.
00:38It was a sharp dip in temperatures. Out ahead of that, we have got heat and clear skies.
00:44So let's move into having a look day by day. So here's the big falls we're expecting during the day today on Monday.
00:50So 1525, 15, 25 to 50 millimetres. So some big falls there.
00:54It peters out as it comes across the South East and then moves on through.
00:58Starting to see a little bit of moisture coming from the North East there tomorrow.
01:02Here's the remains of the cloud band in through here and here.
01:05So this one is lasting for quite a considerable period of time, just very slowly moving northwards as it does.
01:11Here's the next cold outbreak that is brewing over the Southern Ocean.
01:14So it's Tuesday. As we move into Wednesday, here's the remains of that cloud band still there over New South Wales.
01:20It's just light and patchy rain that is all that is left from there.
01:23Here's the cold outbreak over the South. Not quite moving into the South East yet.
01:27And moisture is brewing up in the North.
01:30Have you a look at our red and purple lines here.
01:32That is heat that has built over the northern parts of the country.
01:36All of the blue lines into the purple lines.
01:38That is cold air that comes up from the South.
01:40When they clash, then that's where we get some big weather.
01:43All right, so let's watch all of this start to work together as we move through the later part of the week.
01:47As we go into Thursday, here we have our band of rain.
01:51But in the East, thanks to this moisture that's coming in from the North East, we're going to see that turn into showers and thunderstorms.
01:57Now, that's very hit and miss activity.
01:59If you're directly under a storm, yes, you will get a heavy fall.
02:02Otherwise, you may miss out even if they are all around you.
02:05So we're looking at that in South East Queensland and the eastern parts of New South Wales.
02:09Otherwise, the remains of our rain band.
02:11This coming into the South East, let's have a look as we go into Friday.
02:14There's 600 metres snow down to 600 metres, yes, on the 10th of October.
02:19So another proper surge of cold air comes through.
02:22Meanwhile, here is our showers and thunderstorms, North East New South Wales and South East Queensland as we move through Friday.
02:28All right, let's now move into Saturday.
02:31This is blurring over the interior in through here.
02:34We've got our cold air that is crossing the South East.
02:37Here is one model's take on what is likely to happen.
02:40And it is exciting as it moves through into Sunday.
02:43Now, it's probably not going to end up like this.
02:45This is why we wait for all of the models to start saying the same thing.
02:48And they usually don't do that a week out.
02:51So this is one take on how all of the moisture in the north can meet up with all of that cold air in the south
02:56and come together in a very big way to reduce a lot of wet weather.
03:01I'll show you some other models don't have it quite as widespread.
03:04Here's the USA model known as GFS.
03:07Here's the Euro model.
03:08Really, really likes it.
03:09But the Axis, the Australian model, likes it in the north, not in the south.
03:13And Gem doesn't really like it at all.
03:14They've got it still up in the northwest there.
03:16So a bit of a take on what each of the ones are doing.
03:19It's the Euro at this stage that has the most in there.
03:22So what is that potentially going to add up to?
03:25As this moves through here, we've got our rain band.
03:27We've got it slowly moving through.
03:28We've got showers and thunderstorms.
03:29And we've got western parts of Tasmania still being hit because there's no high pressure in sight.
03:34So it just gets cold front after cold front moving through.
03:37As always, head to File Online Weather for the latest.
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