00:03Hello, it is the 18th of October and this is your weather forecast for South Australia,
00:06Victoria and Tasmania for the week ahead. We have a stationary high sitting in the Tasman
00:10delivering northerly flows, which means it is pretty warm throughout the week. However,
00:16it's not dry. There's a series of troughs moving through, delivering some rainfall there. So this
00:20is definitely a week that we'll go through thinking about the harvest and days where
00:24harvest will likely be better than others. All right, let's have a look at this day by day
00:28breakdown. Starting out on Monday, it is still dry for most of Victoria and Tasmania,
00:34but South Australia is starting to see the trophiness, bringing some rainfall. It's
00:38lights between one and five mils. All right, Tuesday is when we start to see the possibility of rain
00:44across Eastern South Australia, five to 10 mils, as well as Western Victoria, possibility of five
00:49to 10 mils there. I'm going to jump across straight away to the confidence on this and we'll go back
00:53and forth just to sort of get a picture. So here we're looking at our James with the pro version,
00:58it's saying that I'm looking at Matua, three mils, but a possibility of zero to 10 mils, just so that
01:02you understand the confidence there. If I break this down, have a look at it day by day. All right,
01:07all the models are showing that that starts after noon. So it's going to be in the afternoon that if
01:12that rain arrives, that's when it's going to develop. And it's the Australian model showing
01:15a bit of this rainfall here, but all the models are showing something, but all below less than one
01:20mil an hour. So it's not heavy rainfall, but it does look like the showers possible late Tuesday
01:25there. All right, let's go back to this. Let's move across to Wednesday. Wednesday has dried out in the
01:31Western part of South Australia. Southern parts are relatively dry, zero to one mils there, and across
01:35Victoria, anywhere between zero and five mils possible. Same for Tasmania. Let's go into Thursday.
01:41Now, Thursday, we've dried off again. So those tropes have moved through. This stationary high still
01:46remains in its spot, delivering those northerly flows. It's still warm. Okay. It is dry across all three
01:51states pretty much on Thursday, except if you're in one of these very remote areas of South Australia.
01:56Friday, we get another trough coming through here. This has a lot more rain behind it that we're
02:02seeing. So South Australia, it's still light, zero to one mils, so relatively dry in South Australia.
02:06But in Victoria and Tasmania, there are parts, localized areas that could be getting 10 to 15
02:11mils there. Let's jump across to understand the confidence on this. So we're looking here at Friday.
02:17Again, Matoa. Matoa is in the West. A lot of that sort of rain was a little bit more central
02:21in
02:21Victoria. And if we look at the confidence, that's all from one model there. So hopefully in those
02:26grain areas that it's still dry. All right. Let's jump ahead to Saturday now. Saturday, again,
02:33more intense rain, but it's concentrated over here in the ranges, a possible 15 to 25 mils.
02:39Relatively dry across Southern Australia, a possible localized heavy fall of five to 10 mils,
02:44which isn't that heavy, but just possible there. But otherwise relatively dry. And Tasmania across the
02:48state anywhere between sort of two and 10 mils, 10 mils more if you're up in the North East.
02:52Again, let's have a look at the confidence on that. Coming across here, this is where I'm really seeing
02:58the Saturday, Sunday, a strong deviation in what's being produced between zero and 22 or zero and 25
03:04mils if you are looking here at the confidence ranges. Okay. So let's open up Saturday and having
03:11a look here. We can see Saturday. It is just the Canadian model producing that rainfall. All right.
03:15So there is a chance that there's some heavier rains on the way for Saturday and Sunday,
03:19but I would not be calling that in the forecast yet, but I would be thinking about it in terms
03:24of planning that maybe towards the end of the week, there's more rainfall than at the start.
03:27But it seems like Tuesday, we're fairly confident that there's going to be some rain.
03:31Okay. Beautiful. So that's what's happening this week in terms of the rainfall. As we said,
03:37the temperatures are quite warm. Now, when we have warm temperatures and rainfall,
03:41when they come together, there is a chance of storms. A little bit less so in these states.
03:45South Australia, I'm seeing some days where there could be possible thunder, lightning, hail,
03:50strong winds, a little bit less so in Victoria and Tasmania. And for the most part,
03:54they're quite localised in where they're falling. A lot of that stormy action is really more up in
03:58Queensland, New South Wales, those sorts of areas. Okay. Beautiful. That is your forecast for today.
04:03As we said, it's pretty much warm throughout the week, getting really quite hot, honestly.
04:09Definitely seeing some temperatures in the low 30s there across South Australia and Victoria,
04:13and in Tasmania in the mid-20s. There is possible rain on the way, but mostly dry. And this is
04:20what
04:20I'd be checking in with your localised forecast, just in case those develop into storms for the
04:25later rain systems, the Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Stay safe. Have a great week. And if you're harvesting
04:29at the moment, good luck. Bye.
