00:03Hello, it is Sunday the 23rd of August and this is your weather forecast for South East Australia.
00:08We have flood warnings still here in Northern Victoria, minor and moderate floodings.
00:12They should subside over sort of today and tomorrow but they'll likely return on Tuesday as we have another rainfall
00:18system moving through with some pretty high single day totals.
00:22Okay, let's crack into it and have a chat.
00:26This is the cutoff load that will be dominating our discussion this week.
00:29It developed in the Indian Ocean and then moved across so it does have some feed of some tropical moisture
00:34in there which is why some areas are going to experience some quite high totals.
00:38Okay, on Monday it starts to move into South Australia and deliver a possible 25 to 50 mils in these
00:45sort of highly populated regions.
00:47Now the thing about this system is that it moves relatively quickly.
00:49It doesn't tend to stall over land, at least that's what the current models are showing us.
00:53And so we can see by Tuesday it's largely cleared out of that area and then moved over into the
00:57South East into Victoria and New South Wales.
01:00Here it's delivering 25 to 50 mils or a possible localised 50 to 75 mils up in the ranges.
01:08But you can see there's large bands of moisture that will be falling across multiple states on that Tuesday.
01:15This is also associated with some pretty strong winds on Tuesday and on Wednesday as well.
01:20Wednesday it does move over off into the coast so the rainfall is largely just in this sort of northern
01:26New South Wales coastal area with some possible showers for the remainder of the East Coast.
01:31But you can see this high pressure system is starting to move over and settle in.
01:34And that means for the rest of the weekend, so this is Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday, we have that
01:41calm, stable, settled weather.
01:43There should be some nice sunny days ahead, but some frost and fog is definitely possible in the mornings, especially
01:48on Thursday and Friday.
01:49So this is the Friday 6 a.m. temperature field. This blue colour is 0 to 5 degrees.
01:54And as you can see, that's over large areas of New South Wales and Victoria.
01:59Not so much South Australia, though, but definitely frost and fog possible towards the end of the week.
02:05Now that rainfall that's associated with that cutoff load can definitely bring thunderstorms and lightning with it to small localised
02:18areas.
02:18So definitely be on the lookout for that.
02:20So gusty winds, lots of rainfall, thunderstorms possible with that system moving through on the Tuesday and Wednesday in South
02:28Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.
02:31Having a look now at Mount Hotham at the Alpine Resort in Victoria, just to show you that with that
02:37cutoff load, we have incredibly strong wind gusts possible, especially in those Alpine regions above 70 kilometres an hour.
02:43So those are dangerous winds definitely associated, but they do seem to ease by Wednesday.
02:48Now we can see that on the Tuesday we've got 30 mils predicted, but, you know, there's a wide range
02:55between 1 and 34 mils possible.
02:59But definitely we're seeing a lot of consensus among the models towards that higher range of rainfall up in the
03:06ranges with a lot of strong wind gusts being normally.
03:08So they shouldn't be too cold.
03:10And in fact, that's a little bit of a negative because there's no snow falling and a lot of rain.
03:14Definitely likely that we'll see those flood warnings reappear again with this cutoff load moving through.
03:20It should be more likely in the northeast than the northwest.
03:24But just given where we're seeing reservoir levels at the moment, I think the northwest will likely also have those
03:29flood warnings reappear again.
03:31So that's, yeah, what we can sort of see coming up ahead.
03:34And then you can also see lots of frost and fog on the way.
03:38And especially Friday, you can see that that frost risk intensifies as the high moves over and brings those colder
03:43temperatures in the morning time.
03:46All right.
03:47So just to finish off, re-summarising that we have that cutoff load moving through bringing some dangerous and damaging
03:52winds,
03:53some pretty intense single day rainfalls and even some thunderstorms associated with it as well.
03:58That should move off on Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday at the very latest if you're in the northern coastal regions
04:05of New South Wales,
04:06to then have a very calm, settled weekend or end of the week with some frost and fog in the
04:12morning.
04:12Okay.
04:13Please do stay safe with those weather conditions out there.
04:15We will see you next week.
04:17Have a good one.
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