00:00It's been autumn for a little while, but hasn't always really felt like it weather-wise.
00:05However, we've now seen a bit of a change through the start of this week.
00:09Most of us have seen a fair amount of rain, and we've also seen a drop in our temperatures.
00:14A cold front that's pushed through during Wednesday has brought cooler air behind it.
00:18You can see the jet stream pushing north to south across the country, dragging fresher air down.
00:24Then, we do actually have a ridge of high pressure building later Wednesday and into Thursday.
00:29So, that's going to quieten the weather down, and with largely clear skies overnight and that fresher air across us,
00:36I expect a bit of a chilly start for many of us on Thursday morning, but a largely bright one.
00:41A good deal of fine weather to be had initially before a weather system comes in from the west.
00:45Initially, the warm front brings a spell of quite persistent, at times heavy rain,
00:49and then this cold front moves through, and that's likely to bring some heavy rain across parts of England and
00:54Wales.
00:54We're talking 5 to 10 millimetres in just an hour or so, and some hail mixed in.
00:59Also, the risk of thundery showers following in behind.
01:01These are going to be quite blustery, especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland on Friday.
01:07Also on Friday, a slight rise in our temperatures again.
01:10So, Wednesday, Thursday, they've been a bit fresher than the start of the week.
01:13On Friday, I'm expecting temperatures to be up a degree or so, so potentially could get back into the low
01:1920s in the southeast,
01:21but really with the rain lingering here, I'm expecting mid to high teens really across the board.
01:26Where it's blustery, where you get the rain, it's going to feel fresher than that.
01:29If you're in the shelter from the breeze and you get any sunshine, well, it will feel relatively warm still
01:34for the time of year.
01:35Let's look at our rainfall totals through the end of Thursday and into Friday then.
01:40We have initially that spell of more persistent rain coming through as that warm front pushes in.
01:44Some high rainfall totals building up over western parts of Scotland, western Northern Ireland, and also western Wales.
01:49Then we have that cold front, and that's going to bring even more heavy bursts of rain across some parts
01:55of Wales and England.
01:56And so, it's across north Wales in particular where we're likely to see the highest rainfall totals, potentially around 100
02:04millimetres.
02:04Now, that is enough to cause some significant impacts.
02:08However, because it has been generally dry there for several weeks, several months really,
02:12the impacts are less likely compared to if it had been such a wet period before.
02:19Then, as we go through the end of the day, Friday and into Saturday, that front clears away towards the
02:24southeast,
02:25and then we're under the influence of low pressure to the north, bringing some blustery, showery weather,
02:29especially to northern parts of the UK.
02:31So, Scotland, seeing fairly frequent showers pushing through.
02:34They will be heavy and thundery at times.
02:35And further south, we'll see some showers, but fewer, and the winds won't be as strong as well.
02:40So, whilst there's a chance of gales further north, lighter winds further south.
02:44Into Sunday, things quieten down.
02:46The low pressure gets further away.
02:47And so, actually, it currently looks like Sunday is going to be a largely fine day.
02:52Yes, there'll be some cloud around, but it's going to be drier, less showery compared to Saturday.
02:58But there is a weather system out in the west, and there's been some minor disagreements about how this is
03:04likely to develop.
03:05Here I have the Met Office model showing that the rain's set to remain to the west of us through
03:10Sunday,
03:10albeit maybe just about clipping parts of the southwest.
03:13And most models are in agreement.
03:15However, the ECAI model from midday on Tuesday had that rain coming all the way across the country on Sunday.
03:23So, it painted a much wetter story.
03:25The midnight last night model doesn't have that.
03:28So, that was very much an outlier, but I just wanted to highlight it nonetheless.
03:32And what's causing the problems?
03:34Well, if we look out towards the Gulf of Mexico, here we have a tropical storm.
03:38E-C-E-S, I've got it right.
03:42That's set to develop into a hurricane and intensify as it pushes northwards towards the northern Gulf Coast
03:48through making landfall around Friday night and into Saturday.
03:52But that ECAI model wanted to push it northwards a bit quicker.
03:57And it was that development, taking it northwards a bit quicker, that then had a knock-on effect to our
04:02jet stream.
04:03What it then led to was that feature that's coming in as we go through later this weekend,
04:09pushing and developing ever so slightly quicker.
04:11And so, that's why if that does push further northwards, that hurricane develops a bit quicker,
04:16pushes northwards a bit quicker than many of the models want,
04:19there's the potential that this system here might get driven quicker across the Atlantic
04:23and then might bring more rain to us on Sunday.
04:26At the moment, though, most likely outcome was it will be that it stays to the west of us until
04:32Monday.
04:33And that's when we start to see more cloud, more rain across western areas,
04:36further east staying dry for longer, maybe until well into the evening that some eastern areas see that cloud
04:41and rain pushing through.
04:42But eventually, we will see some wet weather and it could be quite heavy,
04:45especially across those western parts.
04:48Thereafter, and I have two EC runs here, or members, showing pretty much the same thing, really.
04:54As we go through next week, we end up with a fairly standard setup.
04:58North-west, south-east split with higher pressure towards the south-east,
05:02lower pressure towards the north-west of the UK.
05:04And so, it's wetter, windier towards the north-west, drier, calmer towards the south-east.
05:09So, fairly usual, kind of a typical setup to what we've had recently.
05:13Generally, through October, the jet streams shifted a bit further north, and that's doing two things.
05:17It's keeping low-pressure systems generally a bit further north, rather than running across the UK,
05:22and also keeping us on the milder, the warmer side of the jet, which is why, on the whole,
05:26temperatures are still going to be a little bit above average.
05:29It's probably not until November that we're going to start to see that jet shifting a bit further southwards
05:34and running more across the country, bringing perhaps some more unsettled weather by then.
05:39You can see low pressure as we go through the middle of the week, developing more likely, again,
05:43across northern areas, which goes in line with what I just said about the positioning of the jet.
05:48Towards the back end of next week, and not a huge amount of changes,
05:51still going with the most likely idea of low pressure more towards the north of the UK,
05:56high pressure towards the south, and even the second and third most likely setups are very similar,
06:00just exactly where that high pressure is going to be, where the low pressure is going to be a bit
06:04different.
06:04But the wetter weather always more likely towards the north and northwest,
06:08and Friday paints a very similar picture to Thursday, albeit the percentage chances get lower,
06:12but that's because we've got further ahead, so of course confidence is decreasing.
06:16A quick look at our temperatures then, and I've already mentioned that things are turning a bit fresher through the
06:21next,
06:21well, I've already turned fresher and will continue to do so as we go into Thursday,
06:25and then they rise a bit in time for Friday before a slightly fresher feel over the weekend
06:30with some changeable weather and the change of our air mass.
06:33And then by early parts of next week, actually by then there are signs that we could actually drag in
06:40before that rain comes in from the west, we could drag in some warmer air for a time,
06:44so we could see temperatures lifting again.
06:45Low 20s maybe, maybe, probably not mid-20s, but low 20s not out of the question,
06:51and then perhaps a slight downward trend.
06:53But these temperatures, I mean, they're not unusual for the time of year.
06:56Low 20s, it's quite warm for October, but it's not exceptional.
07:00It's just, yeah, a bit warm for the time of year.
07:03The trend for Edinburgh, well, it paints a similar picture, really, to the one for London,
07:07so still something a bit milder in time for Friday, then a dip over the weekend
07:11before potentially something a bit warmer early next week, and then a general drop-off.
07:15But no real signs of anything really cold for the time being.
07:19Now, of course, we will be keeping you up to date with the forecast,
07:22the heavy rain that's coming through Thursday into Friday,
07:25and also what happens with that system on Sunday.
07:27So make sure you're subscribed to our YouTube channel,
07:29and you'll stay on top of things as well.
07:31Bye-bye.
