00:00The deadline for a restricted free agent to receive an offer sheet is today,
00:05and it looks like nothing has come in for Cowboy kicker Brandon Aubrey.
00:11Nope, and they seem to be playing Aubrey the exact same way that they're playing Pickens,
00:16which I guess you could view that one of two ways.
00:19If you're George Pickens, you can be like,
00:20maybe I shouldn't take as much offense to the negotiating tactic.
00:23They're doing it to Brandon Aubrey.
00:25And if you're Brandon Aubrey, maybe say,
00:26I take a little offense to this negotiating tactic.
00:29They're treating me like I'm George Pickens.
00:30But the reality is that Dallas has never in any negotiation entering an offseason
00:36had as much leverage or reason not to do something as they have with Brandon Aubrey.
00:42They're just where they're at and what they want is so far off base from what Dallas wants
00:48and what Dallas can really essentially force him to be on for this year.
00:52You think it's likely that Todd France or Mooligeta look at their fishing line,
00:57not moving whatsoever from any other team trying to come get them,
01:01who is more likely if either to call the Cowboys and say,
01:07okay, let's sit here and let's talk about a more realistic number?
01:11Aubrey.
01:11Yeah.
01:12Yeah.
01:12I mean, they've done that with France before.
01:14They've been able to get stuff done with him on that front before.
01:18Aubrey is in so much worse of a position to just basically demand above what it is.
01:25If they're going to offer something above what he's got on the tender,
01:29then he should probably look at taking that.
01:31But I think that would be the bigger chance.
01:33I don't think that Pickens has gotten an offer.
01:36I don't think he's going to.
01:37Aubrey, I think they've at least discussed some numbers,
01:39even if an official offer hasn't been slid across.
01:42If Aubrey plays on the second round tender, he will get a one-year salary of $5.81 million.
01:48That's going to sting a little bit.
01:50I mean, yeah, it stings less than eight.
01:53That's for sure.
01:54But, yeah, it's definitely going to sting a little bit.
01:56Stings more than eight.
01:58It stings more than eight.
02:00If he got eight million, it would sting less.
02:02He's saying it stings for the Cowboys a little bit.
02:07Oh, okay.
02:08I was saying for Aubrey.
02:09He's talking about for Aubrey.
02:09Oh, no, no.
02:10Yeah.
02:10I mean, that'll sting for Aubrey to make 5.8 for the kicker that the entire world talked about as
02:16a freak.
02:17For sure.
02:18Now, from the Cowboys' perspective, they're stoked.
02:21They're stoked about this.
02:22This is the best possible case scenario, other than the fact that you probably upset one of your players.
02:28Right.
02:29But does that upset them?
02:31Yeah.
02:31Or should they realistically look at it as like, you know what, they can make me play on this.
02:36They were willing to go above that.
02:39That we had a line we wanted to get to, and we just expect them to be solid.
02:43But you got to remember the last negotiation they had with France, France had said, I've got all the leverage.
02:49You are going to give me everything.
02:50And the Cowboys did.
02:52Similarly, I would think France could look at it and go like, yeah, turnabout's fair play.
02:56They have all the leverage.
02:57They're not going to just hand me something.
03:00RJ Choppy with a couple of proclamations for the Dallas Cowboys draft.
03:06Why they should not move up.
03:08And why they have to take an edge in round one.
03:12All right.
03:12Which one do you want?
03:13We're edging here?
03:13We're going to edge here.
03:14Now, so I went and looked.
03:16And, you know, CBS did a really nice job of putting together some of the non-quarterback deals in the
03:21more recent years.
03:23And how they turned out.
03:24And whether or not the Cowboys need to be kind of, not wary, but careful in what they're doing.
03:31So we'll put on our Sonny Weaver hats, you draft day fans out there.
03:34Yeah, I had no clue who that was.
03:36You didn't know who that was?
03:37Nope, never seen it.
03:38Oh, it's a wonderfully bad movie.
03:41Yeah, when everyone instantly said, this sucks, this is bad, it's hard to lure me back.
03:46Yeah, but it's one of those movies that's bad that you watch over and over again, like Lake Placid.
03:50Okay.
03:51Lake Placid's a terrible movie that every time it's on.
03:53Sounds very much like those are two movies you've seen that I don't know that any of us have.
03:56Me and Bill Pullman are just, we're kismet here.
04:01All right, so if you went back and looked, and you know, Jacksonville last year, they traded two firsts to
04:05go up and get Travis Hunter from five to two.
04:08And he did absolutely nothing for them this year.
04:10And that looks like a pretty terrible trade right now.
04:12About to be moved to full-time corner listening to the Jaguars, so they are moving off of the whole
04:17receiver angle.
04:17I mean, that was a quick move.
04:19Yeah.
04:20I mean, yeah, they were a little outside the normal lockstep, though, and also saying he would play some receiver.
04:25Most teams did think he'd be a full-time corner.
04:27So you've got a team that had 13 wins last year, now has nothing in the first round.
04:32You know, they traded away their first-round pick, and they got a little gutted in free agency.
04:38So another one.
04:39He also got hurt.
04:41He also got hurt.
04:42Another one.
04:42Houston traded two ones to go up from 12-3 and take Will Anderson.
04:49Success.
04:50Success.
04:5112-3, kind of like this year.
04:52Will is awesome.
04:53Who went 12 that year?
04:55Jameer Gibbs.
04:57Ah, perfect.
04:58So, would you rather have Jameer Gibbs and a 1 and a 2 still, or just Will Anderson?
05:07What team am I?
05:07Am I this team?
05:08Am I this team?
05:09I'd rather have Will Anderson.
05:10Yeah, I mean, yeah, it depends on who you are.
05:12But, you know, you're building a roster.
05:15The Eagles traded a 12 and a 3 to go get Devontae Smith.
05:24Right?
05:25They went up to go get him.
05:27Yeah, Dallas actually really benefited on that trade.
05:30They got way over what they should have got for that move up.
05:32To go two spots up, they added another three.
05:35And that same draft, the Eagles had the sixth pick that year.
05:39They traded back with Miami, and they went back to 12 before making the trade with the Cowboys.
05:44Miami took Waddle.
05:46Right?
05:46So, the Eagles got Smith anyway and moved off of 12.
05:50Dallas took Micah.
05:50But, if they were at 6, you know, they could have still gotten their receiver.
05:55But, they moved back off it.
05:57And, trading up is Miami.
05:59You know, did Miami get fair value?
06:00They're getting Waddle.
06:02That doesn't mean you don't do it.
06:03But, you know, we are seeing teams, all these teams high-five each other when they make these moves.
06:07Yeah.
06:07Right?
06:08That's one thing you see.
06:08We got our guy.
06:09We got our guy.
06:09We high-five everybody.
06:11And then, sometimes they work, like Will Anderson's worked.
06:13And then, sometimes they don't.
06:15Right?
06:15And, obviously, that's the tug of war that you're going to have to play.
06:18Again, it doesn't mean don't do it.
06:19But, when you're looking at non-quarterbacks, you're really moving up for somebody that may or may not have the
06:25impact that you're hoping for when you're paying that premium.
06:29Washington coming out.
06:30Adam Peters, the GM.
06:32And, of course, all these guys lie and give the same standard company lines.
06:35But, he's like, as things stand right now, more likely than not that we stick and pick at seven.
06:40Now, Washington scares me a little bit in this thing.
06:42I know Choppy said the draft turns and starts getting decided at five.
06:47Could be three with Arizona.
06:49Yeah.
06:49But, Washington scares me, too.
06:51Because, I'm like, Dan Quinn's not going to sneak in here for styles.
06:55Dan Quinn's not going to sneak in here for downs.
06:58Dan Quinn, is he just going to go and get a running back?
07:01Is he going to get a receiver?
07:02I don't know what Washington's going to do.
07:04So, I just, asking around in the last week or so, which you always get some BS around this time.
07:11But, when things start, I think, crystallizing around this point.
07:16And, the chatter consistently out of Washington has been, if Jeremiah Love was there, that would be their dream scenario.
07:22And, they would take him.
07:24Wow.
07:24If he's not there, the likeliest scenario is Cardinal Tate.
07:27And, then, if that's not the pick, the possible alternate would be downs.
07:32So, I think for them, yeah, it would be, I don't expect Love to be there right now.
07:36Tate should be.
07:37So, if that's the case, then I would think Tate would be, and downs would continue to slip past Washington.
07:43Why do the Cowboys have to draft an edge round one?
07:46So, history says that if you draft an edge outside the first round, on average, they produce about 50%
07:54of, and the stat we're using here is like,
07:57its profile reference is approximate value that they have.
08:00And, you know that stat, the weight of approximate value.
08:02They produce about 50%, anybody outside the first round, 50% of what a first round edge rusher produces.
08:07That's the largest drop-off of any position in the NFL draft.
08:11Wow.
08:11That's a larger drop-off than quarterback.
08:14If you look at the other, so, it's 51%.
08:17And, then, it pretty much levels off until you get to the rounds 5, 6, and 7.
08:21Defensive tackle, they produce about 60%, 63% of their first round.
08:27Linebackers, 83%.
08:28But, this is why you typically don't see safeties in the first round.
08:33A second round safety produces about 98% of the approximate value as a first rounder.
08:38Hmm.
08:39And, McNeil Warren?
08:41Yeah.
08:41And, that's just the...
08:42The thought being that a lot of years, there's not even a safety that goes in the first round.
08:46Usually, the highest they get picked is second.
08:48And, somebody...
08:49So, you're still talking about that second round safety, a lot of times, will be the top safety taken.
08:53And, so, a lot of times, that has to do with positional value.
08:55But, yeah, it's...
08:57The drop-off generally is greater with an edge.
08:59And, that's why, you know, if you're looking at it, and you're sitting there, and you're like,
09:02Alright, do we take...
09:03You know, do we want to move up and get Reese?
09:05Do we want to move up and get Bailey?
09:06Versus stay and take downs.
09:08And, these are career returns?
09:10Or, are these just rookie year...
09:12It's...
09:13I think it's within the first contract.
09:15Okay.
09:15It's within the first contract.
09:17So, when you look at it, and you go back, it's like, Alright, do you want to move up and
09:20get those guys?
09:20Or, if you stick at 12, and you have a chance, and you see, okay, there's Bain there, and Downs
09:25on the board, or whoever.
09:27Does that weigh into your decision at all?
09:30Because, you know, like...
09:31You have a better chance of hitting on your second-round quarterback than your second-round edge rusher.
09:35I think they...
09:36Even though, like, Sonny Stiles is the top linebacker in the draft, and if he's sitting there, wow, that'd be
09:41such a huge value.
09:42I could definitely see them saying, linebacker, we can find somebody to play for us year one in the third
09:47round.
09:47We can do that.
09:48And so, I think I'd have a very hard time seeing them getting out of the first round, and they
09:52have not taken some sort of an edge.
09:54Whether that be edge at 12, and then...
09:57In the first?
09:57Yeah, edge at 12, and then corner at 20.
09:59Or corner at 12, edge at 20.
10:02One of those picks, I would imagine, will be an edge rusher.
10:05What do they move up?
10:07Then they're moving up for an edge rusher.
10:09I think they can move up for Downs.
10:11I don't think so.
10:12I think if they move up, they're moving up for an edge rusher.
10:15Really?
10:15Yeah.
10:18Historically, that would make the most sense.
10:20Yeah, but...
10:22I mean, everything we've heard, they love Caleb Downs.
10:25They do.
10:26Yeah.
10:26They do.
10:27You think they love Reese or Bailey just as much or more?
10:30More.
10:31More?
10:31Yeah.
10:32Which is...
10:32On both?
10:33Yeah, which makes...
10:33I mean, they're top three players.
10:35Yeah.
10:35And I think positional value...
10:36They think these are all great players.
10:38Positional value-wise, that's different right there for Reese and Bailey.
10:41So, they have so many holes, I think they just would look at it and say, okay, we love Downs.
10:46Do we love Downs enough to sacrifice the second pick that we have?
10:49Not necessarily.
10:50Bailey and Reese?
10:51Maybe.
10:52We're starting to, not here, get away from Bain at 12.
10:58I think it's because they believe they're going to have guys at their pick that they like more.
11:05I don't...
11:06I wouldn't say that it's just an impossibility that they come out of the first round and Ruben Bain is
11:11the 12th pick.
11:12That could happen.
11:13I just think that there are other scenarios that they would look at and say, we feel pretty positive that
11:18one of these is going to fall to us and we're going to have that above them.
11:21They also wouldn't have an edge if they moved up for Styles.
11:25Right.
11:25Yeah, I don't know that they would move up for Styles.
11:28Oh.
11:29I think that their move up would potentially be about an edge rusher if they were going to go up.
11:33Inside the star in the home of the Cowboys.
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