00:00bobby belt bobby knows ball hey let's talk ball where the ball knows and we just talk ball
00:06ah we do know ball we do talk ball and so does dane brugler let's talk about what dane brugler
00:12has to say here in below the belt which is sponsored by academy sports and outdoors and
00:16window nation boy sean just he still hasn't come around on the talking ball thing look it's uh
00:24i i never i never i never equated talking ball with with football i always equated with basketball
00:34don't play some ball well yeah but i mean that's the whole thing it so if you're gonna play ball
00:39and everybody thinks it's basketball if you're gonna talk ball it has to be basketball we gotta
00:44be consistent this whole argument came from that when i was like when sean was like oh i can't
00:51believe you say that as i was referring to the way scouts which were right in the middle of the
00:55nfl draft process i said that's why scouts will will tell you like they want to find out they want
01:00to
01:00talk to the guy they want to find out does he love ball like well like and then when he
01:04goes why do
01:04you say that you can't say that's like i'm not saying i'm literally telling you how they describe
01:08it does he love that is what they will say it's literally not a ball yeah it is balls around
01:15it's
01:15the most unique ball in fact you could say that that's why it is the ball and we're talking ball
01:19because it's the football that's one of my favorite quotes i've referenced it on the air
01:24multiple times the uh matthew barry has quoted from it before and i think it originally came from
01:31football outsiders or somebody um but he borrowed the quote which is the ball's a funny shape like
01:37you there's some things you cannot predict in football because that ball is a funny shape it'll
01:41bounce weird it'll do weird things like there's there's only so much you can predict with the nfl and i
01:46think the ball's a funny shape is a good like just general credo to apply to the way the nfl
01:51season
01:52works and yeah like the injury the war of attrition that's a version of the ball's a funny shape like
01:57that's just the uniqueness of the nfl game and then in terms of the way that it can just derail
02:02seasons and that constant fight that goes on but i'm curious before we get into the the dane brugler
02:07thing well it should be talking skin by the way because pig skin i think that's a unique name
02:12i don't know talking ball this is skin i don't know the nfl is trying to eliminate the whole
02:17thing um but anyway um nick how do you feel about analytics in football what is their use i i
02:26think
02:26there is a use for it and i also think there's an oversaturation of it chop where have you you
02:31feel
02:31like you've evolved a little or moved a little what is your position ultimately right now on analytics
02:36i love analytics i think they've become too powerful the example for oversaturation of
02:43analytics i don't care who you are you cannot convince me that when you score a touchdown to
02:49go up by seven why you are not going for two every single time to try to go up by
02:53nine same thing with
02:54if you're going up by 15 you're trying to go up by 17 you want to make it a possession
02:58an extra
02:59possession game i don't understand kicking an extra point i don't either and i've i've asked analytics
03:05people before and it's like well then the other if you don't get it then the other team could go
03:08for two and they beat you it's like no but they're not they're gonna kick the extra point the analytics
03:12team says when you go up by seven to not kick the extra to not go for two to not
03:17go for two
03:19yes to kick the extra point there is like an overwhelming like that's the overwhelming majority
03:24i think it's got to do with your odds of getting that versus getting the extra point and then
03:31compounding it with their odds of scoring a touchdown and then their odds of converting a two
03:34point conversion it's some calculation that relates to somehow that's that's what that's
03:40got to be what it is but i still don't at the very least your odds of converting a two
03:44-point
03:44conversion are 50 right at the very minimum right it's a pass fail but in reality getting two yards
03:51is probably a 60 to 65 success rate right yeah um yeah i mean but we're talking about on a
03:59two-point
03:59conversion like everything changes right i get it um i i with you if you have i go up by
04:05seven
04:06i'm going for two i'll make it a nine point game same thing with 15 so my position on i
04:11talked about
04:12this with some people in indy i have my where i fall down on analytics at this point is i
04:18think
04:18they're great i think that the nfl resisted them for too long i think that now the nfl is trying
04:24to get
04:24analytics to do things that they should not be doing and that they can't possibly do i think it's
04:29really good for team building i think it's really good for in-game and analytics are analytics are
04:36great for telling you what happened analytics are awful for telling you what will happen
04:43oh right because it's it's a predictive and them trying to turn analytics into predictive
04:49tool that's where i think that's you're getting into trouble because every play is its own
04:53season essentially the ball's in funny shape and um and that doesn't necessarily work i think it's
04:58better in baseball uh but i also think it's ruined baseball it has ruined it a little bit but baseball
05:04again yeah you're right there's it's the whole three true outcomes thing in baseball and it's also
05:08like it really works over 162 games and if you notice it always fails the playoffs yeah no no if
05:15you
05:15look at yeah i mean because you don't get the number one thing in analysis it relies so heavily on
05:20walks you don't you don't walk in the playoffs at the same right we got zach wheeler taken out
05:24because of analytics in a world series game he shouldn't be taken out of right blake snell blake
05:29snell was another one like that so it can be run amok shoddy was telling us that i guess so
05:34i mean
05:34ryan feeder we've heard him mentioned before the game management guy i guess feeder is like plugged
05:39into the headset telling him this is what the numbers say on every single fourth down situation
05:45um and he's he was telling us i'm sure he was exaggerating a little but he was like
05:50we could be on our 40 and it's fourth and 18 and feeder saying go for it so like they've
05:55got like
05:56they they are getting the information in real time of this is what it says to do yeah and it's
06:01just in
06:01some instances shot he's like no which i would agree with shot in that instance sometimes i don't care
06:05if it says there's a 53 chance you're gonna get it don't care i'm not doing it yeah i'm just
06:10not
06:10gonna rely on it uh all right dane brugler has a new mock draft up uh we got ron slavin
06:15nfl agent
06:15coming up next segment 9 20 uh we got the red zone which by the way there's a new michael
06:20silver
06:21article which he's always good for spilling unique info he's got a whole write-up on max crosby
06:26wanting to get out of the raiders organization uh so we'll do that at 9 20 but dane brugler has
06:31a
06:31new mock draft up we talked a little bit earlier at uh i believe it was uh 7 20 when
06:38we had done it
06:38or 7 o'clock it was during the 7 o'clock segment uh where we talked about the mike sando
06:42mock draft
06:42which had some wild stuff in there sunny styles falls out of the top 10 caleb downs falls out of
06:49the top 10 some of these executives were saying keldrick falk the address from auburn would go top
06:54five so what does dane brugler have to say coming out of indianapolis number one the las vegas raiders
07:00select fernando mendoza quarterback from indiana number two the jets select arvel reese address
07:05rusher ohio state this feels like that's now getting solidified that it feels like everybody's
07:09coalescing around the jets are going to take reese especially after the trade last week them
07:12acquiring tavandre sweat like pairing him with reese makes a lot of sense and reese was reese's
07:17workout was really really good reese looked great out there in indianapolis uh number three the
07:22arizona cardinals select francis mauno offensive tackle miami uh he says in terms of nfl ceiling mauno
07:28might not be the level of past number three picks but this is a different draft and he brings a
07:32high
07:32floor one which would immediately upgrade the cardinals right tackle spot this is one of the
07:37higher spots i've seen in recent weeks in a mock draft tennessee titans dane's got them taking
07:43jeremiah love the titans love jeremiah love and that that was one of the big notes that came out of
07:49some of the respected voices in indy last week is that the titans are really circling around jeremiah
07:53love number five sunny styles ohio state goes to the new york giants cleveland browns take spencer
08:00fano offensive lineman utah okay so this is where i'm gonna stop such a browns pick there is a name
08:06that has not come off the board yet caleb downs no david bailey edge rusher texas tag yeah the browns
08:17want out of that sixth pick chop when you were asking earlier like there's no chance they would go up
08:22right i'm i'm finding out what it costs if bailey's at six and the browns went out
08:30if it's that six and thirty eight situation where you trade twelve and twenty and you pick up six
08:37and thirty eight i'd do that in a heartbeat yeah i think it's worth i think it's worth tinkering
08:41what because this so they have trade twelve and twenty they have thirty nine okay you would trade twelve
08:45and twenty and you would get six and thirty nine back and i think that's worth it this safety class
08:50is so deep i think you can get a really damn good safety there at thirty so the cowboys the
08:54cowboys
08:54two picks on the draft text rundown of the the trade value chart has it at twenty fifty is what
09:01their two picks are worth so cleveland's number six and number thirty nine is twenty one ten so it's
09:09close yeah that to me if you're telling me i can get david bailey and then have pick thirty nine
09:15to get one of these safeties maybe in a deeper class or or try and grab one of these corners
09:21who
09:21might have slid sign me up i'm making the trade if cleveland wants to do that uh number seven
09:28washington commanders take david bailey edge rusher texas tech eight that's another aspect of it you're
09:33hopping in front of an nfc east team eight carnell tate wide receiver ohio state to the saints
09:37chiefs take reuben bain edge rusher miami at nine there's a lot more consistently bain getting to
09:43nine ten eleven sometimes into the mid-teens in some of these mock drafts cincinnati bengal stick
09:47caleb down safety ohio state at 10 dolphins take monroe freeling offensive tackle from georgia at 11
09:53and then the dallas cowboys take really their last top target left on the board monsoor delane
09:57cornerback lsu but something to think about i would consider making that swap up to six if david bailey's
10:03there
10:04you
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