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  • 5 weeks ago
In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the risk for widespread snow late next week in the Northeast.
Transcript
00:00all right we're wrapping up the latest pattern that we highlighted for you two weeks ago we're
00:09going to wrap that up on the feed today and then my job on the feed or what i decided my job is
00:15a lot of people are always asking me when are we going to get snow when there's going to be a big
00:19snowstorm that's what we're looking toward i don't see anything the rest of this weekend in the early
00:25next week but there's a pattern change coming late next week and that will be the next opportunity
00:31it is a much different weather pattern than what we're seeing right now let me get i'll get into
00:37that in a second really quickly i do want to end this on this weather pattern that uh we're going
00:44to look at this is the snow that we're predicting for you on thursday across the northeast nothing
00:49along the i-95 corridor my friends in new jersey maryland delaware most of virginia
00:55most of eastern new england nothing it's all across the interior this is you know an impactful
01:01storm certainly new york state boy syracuse you bet you've had a winter another four to eight for you
01:06two to four buffalo one to three in the hudson valley middle and upper hudson valley but again
01:11interior snows for the northeast not a big storm um it's just not materializing everything is going
01:20to be offshore now as we get into this weekend i don't see any concerns here i see the cold coming
01:27in but all of the storminess is going to stay offshore so i see no threat of significant snow
01:33for the midwest or northeast there will be some but nothing significant right in the early next week but
01:38i do want to take you into the pattern i want to show you where we are right now and i'm going to
01:42look at the european and the gfs here we are right now this is the pattern where i said you know
01:47you got to keep an eye on this for the next two weeks see you keep on getting these pieces of
01:51energy coming into the east northeast but unfortunately for those that want to snow the
01:57bear clinic soda or the storms are all offshore and when you look at the surface map with this
02:02you can see the european see everything's offshore there's your one thursday there's friday
02:07here's more storms well offshore saturday and sunday so everything is offshore the reason
02:14being is when you look at the weather pattern the trough is just a little too far east it never
02:21goes negatively tilted or a tilt like this that would bring moisture back toward the east coast
02:26everything stays offshore but a significant change as we head in the next week and oftentimes when you
02:34get a change that's when you get a storm i want to show you here's the weather pattern here let's
02:38take the european the gfs is similar look at our dips in the jet stream let's go to sunday see
02:43this is what we're seeing dip in the jet stream in the east let me take you ahead to friday the 23rd
02:50much different weather pattern you see how it goes from here look at the difference to here
02:57now what this is showing you you're getting a big and this would be a polar vortex up here across
03:05hudson bay but look how expansive it is what it does is it sends a lot of cold air into the midwest
03:11and the northeast and the europe gfs is a little different but it has the same idea this is the
03:18american model see it has the same thing big bolt polar vortex here that sends cold air southward
03:25so you've got cold across the northern tier of the united states late next week and into the weekend and
03:31what is it it's an injection of arctic air what does the rhino rule say when you get that injection
03:36of cold air you look for snow let me show you how cold this air mass is projected to be i've talked to
03:43our long range experts uh the crystal ball meteorologist joe lumberd paul paslock they think this pattern is
03:50correct look at the cold air this this is thursday let's say friday afternoon look at the cold air
03:58this is your 32 degree isotherm right all the way down into mid south but look at this cold
04:04this is all below zero in the in the pinks and the purples i mean this is a belt of very cold air and
04:11you can see you have a boundary in here right separating the very cold air from the air that's
04:18not that cold and this is where your storms are going to move i mean hey if you want snow you need
04:24an injection of cold air this is a big injection of cold air that's why my antennas are up for snow
04:31now as we said with the latest pattern just because you have the cold doesn't mean you're going to get
04:37the storms but i do believe that this pattern does come to fruition you've got a better chance of more
04:44widespread snows and a better chance than this pattern because the storms aren't offshore they're
04:51coming across the country now the question is is where do those storms go but i think when i'm
04:57looking at this look at this injection to cold air it's a lot of cold air let me show you the two
05:02different models here this is european all right here you go now look what's going on on friday
05:07here's your polar vortex over hud's uh james bay and you get energy wrapping around you see watch this
05:14thursday thursday night friday and here it comes you have this as we head in the next weekend
05:21now we start friday at the surface map there's the frontal boundary remember i told you about that
05:26here's your front now all you need is energy to come along and form a storm along that boundary right
05:34here comes the energy this is next weekend the 24th right so where are we at now the 13th so not this
05:42weekend next weekend that comes around the bend and here you go and the difference with this storm
05:48because you have an injection of arctic air you may have ice with this now where is this storm
05:53going to track is does it track across the mid-atlantic and you're going to get snow in
05:58philadelphia new york city philadelphia or perhaps is it a little farther north i'm not sure yet but
06:04there's the potential next weekend for a storm coming across the country with ice and snow and it would
06:11impact the southern plains the midwest mid-atlantic maybe the cold's too far entrenched that it stays south
06:17in new england and it's mid-atlantic's chance i'm not sure yet but the potential's there
06:22take a look at the american model same time frame a little different the the cold air not as entrenched
06:30but you see you have a storm coming in when next weekend too this says it's more midwest than new
06:36england the european says no it's southern plains midwest and mid-atlantic but i think from my seat here
06:43on the view the next big chance for a widespread snow and ice is going to be next weekend so that's going
06:53to be the focus of the story the rest of this week on the feed
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