00:00all right we're taking a look at late in the week we've been talking about this time frame
00:11this week from about two weeks ago when we saw what the pattern was going to look like and again
00:17the review this is the pattern that we saw a couple of weeks ago that you'd get this injection
00:23of cold air coming on south that would bring the jet stream south we'd have a boundary that would
00:30stall out on the eastern edge of that colder air a storm would form and then this is the this is the
00:36setup you always play with where's the storm going if it is it out to sea then there would be limited
00:42snow but it comes up the coast you can have a snowstorm this is the way you get a snowstorm
00:48because the air would be cold enough for snow depending on how everything would set up now
00:53as i sit here though and we talked about this last week that there was going to be two opportunities
00:58one thursday friday and another one over the weekend that either one of them would hit or both of them
01:04would miss you wouldn't get two it appears very likely that this is going to be a miss the first
01:10one thursday and the friday this setup is going to end up missing and i want to show you why let me
01:17show you there's the setup you're going to get a storm to form i think it's going to be mostly
01:21offshore there will be some snow across the interior sections of northeast nothing that i see looks like
01:28a snowstorm that was a lot closer uh last weekend last week when we were looking at this dip in the
01:35jet stream let me show you where we're at now last week i'm going to stop this this is the gfs model
01:41the american model um on on thursday morning if i can get this there we go sorry so the difference
01:51was last week you see where this closed off upper low was it was down here and our trough axis was a
01:57little farther west so that gave this room to come northward but that's not what the modeling looks
02:03like now and i and i said it was it was a close call it's actually not going to be as close as i once
02:10thought it was going to be here's the european american european american pretty similar now the
02:17other thing is you've got this piece of energy in the southern branch this is the storm it also looks
02:22like distance is not getting out ahead of the trough fast enough for the storm to form so you've got
02:29two strikes again against it and also this trough axis is awfully far east now what i mean by that
02:35is that any storm that would form and it looks like you are going to get a storm to form down here
02:40look at the way the upper level is here the upper low is here number one i would want it a little
02:45farther south to get a storm but the big thing is look at your trough axis it's kind of neutral or
02:51positive it's kind of oriented like this from southwest to northeast why is that important because
02:58that means you have a west southwest flow aloft and what happens is is that while the storm does form
03:04instead of it being guided up the coast it is guided because of the west southwest flow aloft it's
03:10guided out to sea that's the american model european is very similar see look at that you're here's your
03:17energy here's your storm this comes around the bend but because the trough is oriented like this
03:24you have a west southwest flow aloft and the storm goes out to sea now let me show you the surface map
03:31for this let's start with the european model so here we go storm forms there it is there it is
03:38it's right in here now it's pretty far offshore but if you had an upper level pattern that looked like
03:44this the trough axis a little farther west instead of it being pittsburgh to buffalo it was i don't
03:52maybe even detroit toward indianapolis you'd get enough of a southerly flow to bring this storm northward
03:59into the colder air which is in here here's the colder air cold enough for snow you would bring
04:05this storm northward you drill in the cold air to the 95 and then you would get snow but watch what
04:12the modeling does there's the european out to sea you see that and that you have another storm that
04:17tries to form too on thursday but everything is out to sea why is that because of that upper flow you go
04:24back to the upper air pattern and you see that your storms in here but you have a west southwest
04:31flow and it takes it out to sea no matter what modeling you look at now the only complicating
04:37issue is that you still do have to deal with this this upper low you see it right across pennsylvania
04:44now there's going to be some snow underneath this upper low it's going to be intermittent but persistent
04:52in the cold air so you're going to end up getting a few inches of snow out of this but it's but you
04:56know when you track it where does the upper low go well let's take a look at the european it goes from
05:02buffalo right along the new york state through way moves eastward right in there so your track of the
05:08upper low is like this now because of the way the terrain is in the northeast and you have the mountain
05:14ranges in here that means you get a down sloping flow new york city washington dc philadelphia
05:21and you're not going to get any snow now maybe new york you have to be a little careful just in case
05:27the upper low comes a little farther south but from philadelphia toward washington dc on south
05:32it's if this upper low is there and you're off to the north of the upper low you get a drying west
05:38northwest flow and you don't get any precipitation as well and the model is showing that you see
05:42look at where all the precipitation is thursday morning right in here see that it now you might
05:48get a little bit of rain and snow with the frontal boundary but you see thursday morning you see where
05:53all this is thursday afternoon it's all back in here with the upper low back in here you get too much
05:59of west northwest flow maybe you get some flurries and some rain and snow showers in new york city but
06:05right now it is it looks very unlikely you get much of any snow in new york city and even when you
06:12look at the model printout snow and for those that have been following me on x for years i typically
06:17wouldn't show this um i don't even know if i have it do i have it okay here it is you look at it the
06:24snow accumulation and here it is it's in here all in here nothing new york city and south now boston
06:34will have to keep an eye on this for thursday night friday morning i could see how some snow backs up for
06:38you but right now we've averted an east coast snowstorm for thursday friday tomorrow on the feed we'll be
06:46looking at more over the weekend where we've got to keep an eye on that but from my perspective
06:51we've missed the east coast snowstorm good news for those that don't like snow and that's the feed
06:57you
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