Winter returns late next week with the potential for snow

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the snow risk in the Northeast late next week.

Transcript

00:00an intriguing pattern set up for late next week along the east coast and that's the focus

00:13of the feed and we're going to continue to keep an eye on this even as we go through the rest of

00:17this week because i think the pattern is there for a storm to try to come up the eastern seaboard

00:22now it's also the storm could be well offshore and the pattern i'm about to show you we have

00:29seen quite a bit in the last month or two um since december and and it's then we haven't had

00:36really any big storms yet because the storms have formed offshore now this is the pattern that i'm

00:43talking about here what ends up happening is you have a digging or a jet stream coming on south

00:49as we head in the next week that brings the colder air down it's not arctic air but it's cold enough

00:55for snow you're going to have energy coming in on the bottom side of this trough the question is

01:00does this storm move with the trough at the same speed if it does it goes out to sea or does the

01:08energy get out ahead of the trough and then the trough guided up to the coast and then you have

01:13a cold enough air and ask for a substantial snow that's the question that we're trying to answer

01:18for you on the feed and i'm going to be honest with you i don't have the answers yet but i can tell you

01:23and here we are well you know a week away there is if we're going to get substantial snow in the

01:29mid-atlantic and northeast the time frame is going to be at wednesday in the thursday until then i don't

01:35really see anything of consequence here now what i like to do and the reason we have the feed is i want

01:41you to see the modeling that i seen remember here on the feed the models don't make the forecast

01:47i do but i use the models as a tool to make the forecast that's the difference all right i want to

01:55show you some of the and we're going to concentrate on that time frame wednesday into thursday i want

02:01to start with some models here and i want to begin with the america model because it was the one

02:05yesterday that was showing the snowstorm so here we go let me show you tuesday and wednesday here comes

02:10your dip in the jet stream you see it let's stop it look at this dip in the jet stream now

02:15for this to become a snowstorm this dip in the jet stream has to have a couple things number one

02:22you have to have energy that will run out ahead of this to form the storm and then also the tilt of

02:30this trough has to be more neutral or negative what do i mean by that if you have a neutral tilt

02:36the tilt of the trough in this case this is the gfs let me show it to you this is as we get into

02:42friday wednesday this is what i call a neutral tilt it is tilted from north to south a positive tilt

02:52which is let's go back this is more of a positive tilt you see how it's northwest northeast to

02:59southwest that's important because think about it when the storm forms it's going to move the way in

03:04which the upper level pattern is set up in a neutral or a positively tilt you get west southwest winds

03:12so a storm that would form here would be moved out to sea but if you have a more of a tilt like this

03:17neutral where it's north south or even negative where it's northwest to southeast the steering flow

03:24is either south or even to the southwest and then that steers the storm north so that's what we're

03:29going to be concentrating on so this is the american model here comes the dip in the jet stream now i'm

03:34going to stop this thursday morning do you have energy coming in on the on on the southern side of

03:41this the answer is yes it's right here thursday morning look at here's your northern piece here's

03:46your southern piece this is a real close call the tilt is neutral but what happens is there's just

03:55enough west southwest flow that the storm forms and moves out the sea right here see watch here it goes

04:02oh it's close this says new england has a shot as we get into thursday night friday you see that's the

04:09american model right in here close call very close call for the i-95 corridor the virginia coast and

04:18right up in the new england that is the american model now let me show you the uh the canadian model

04:24similar they all have the same thing you've got this big dip in the jet stream there you go you see it

04:30now as we get in the thursday morning the canadian a little different first of all it has more energy

04:38in the southern branch than the northern branch but you notice the dip in the jet stream you notice

04:42this dip look how it's oriented it's almost what we call negative tilt that is it's tilted see how it

04:50goes right there you see how it's starting to get a little negatively tilted what does that mean you

04:55have a due southerly flow aloft and what does that do it guides the storm northward this is a closer call

05:02and it has snow farther northwest because you have energy on the eastern side and that tilt is a little

05:08negative look at the surface map let's watch it that's the upper levels here's the surface map here

05:13comes the storm and look at how it starts filling in snow back here across the appalachians and then

05:20the storm goes up and it's eastern new england that would get the most it's a close call

05:27lastly the european model unfortunately i don't have the the upper air but this is all offshore and

05:34i'll show and the reason for that is that the trough is more like this there's not a lot of energy

05:43and the storm is well offshore so the question is what do i believe i'm not sure yet but this i want

05:51to give you an area this area in here i think anywhere from the appalachians in here you've got

05:59to worry about a snow threat next week i would have it in here i'd have washington dc philadelphia

06:06new york city boston in the potential area that's the potential area um i i don't think it's going to

06:15get far south into the carolina it's not quite the time of the year for that but that's the area to watch

06:21right now i would tell you if we get the snow i would go appalachians i-81 west virginia i'd have

06:29baltimore washington dc new york city philadelphia all of new jersey back in the central parts of new

06:36york state and pennsylvania and up into new england that's an area to watch now it could go out to sea

06:41as well but again i think we have the pattern right here this is the pattern as we get in the next week

06:48the cascading jet stream a storm forming does it come up the coast or go out to sea that's the

06:56million dollar question and we'll answer it on the feed

07:09you

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