00:00Hi, we are tracking two more storms this week. I think there are small players in the weather as far
00:07as having any additional huge impacts across the northeast.
00:13I think the next time frame that we have to be ready for, for an impactful storm, and this will
00:18probably have some ice along with the snow, is going to be Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
00:26Really quickly, though, before we get in the next week, I do want to take a look at the snowfall
00:32here right now.
00:34This is the current snow depth in the northeast, and boy, when I zoom on in, you can really see
00:39the impact of the blizzard here, where you have the purple shading here, where you're up over two feet.
00:45But notice, even the foot line extends back, and this is, some places already had some snow on the ground,
00:55but you just get the idea of where the biggest impacts were from this storm.
01:00This was the epicenter from New York City toward Boston, and I'll tell you what, in southeastern New England, talking
01:08to some of the forecasters that grew up in that area,
01:15this storm rivaled and even surpassed, in their opinion, the benchmark storm for a lot of people still alive, the
01:2578 blizzard, which was February 6, 1978, so about 48 years ago.
01:32Yeah, 48 years ago, a little more than 48 years ago.
01:35So if you're in your mid-50s or, like me, late 50s, early 60s, if you lived in that area,
01:42that was the benchmark storm.
01:44This, by many people's opinion and, you know, opinions or opinions, this exceeded that.
01:51As I mentioned, we're looking forward.
01:54There's going to be two storms across the northeast over the next couple of days,
01:58but I think the one, the next big opportunity for an impactful storm is going to be Tuesday and Wednesday
02:04of next week,
02:05and it always begins with what?
02:07You all, those that follow me know I always look for what?
02:10An injection of cold air.
02:12This is the European model here, two-meter temperatures.
02:15You can see that right in here.
02:18What they're showing is an injection of cold air coming south, some really cold air.
02:23This is Saturday evening, and here comes the cold air as we get in the Sunday and Monday.
02:29I'm going to stop this Monday evening, and I want to show you what's setting up.
02:33This is the 32-degree line coming in across the Midwest, and also look at the warmth in here, 80s
02:39and 70s.
02:41So you're going to automatically have a large temperature difference, cold air to the north, the warm air to the
02:49south,
02:50and with that, you're likely to have a storm track.
02:54Not only cold air, but I want to show you the dew point temperatures.
02:57I mean, you can even see that.
02:58This is the 32-degree line dew point temperature, so it's cold and dry air here across the northeast,
03:04and look at the gulf flow coming northward.
03:06I mean, you're going to have a storm that's going to be coming between these two air masses here.
03:12So with that, I want to show you the modeling, and again, we use modeling as tools,
03:18not to make the forecast, but help us make the forecast, right?
03:21Let's take a look at the weather pattern as we head in the next week.
03:26I'll show it to you.
03:27So we're going to talk on Monday.
03:29Let's go to Monday evening.
03:30This is the American model.
03:32And what do you have going on here?
03:33You have a dip in the jet stream here.
03:35Here's your injection of cold air that's leaving.
03:38You still have a west-northwest flow, so you still keep the cold air in here.
03:42But what this tells me is you've got the energy back here across the western U.S.
03:47You're going to have some little piece of energy coming from west to east across the country.
03:54You'll also notice you have what I call the confluent zone here.
03:57This is the American model between these two branches of the jet zone.
04:01That tells me that you've got a storm moving somewhere in here,
04:05somewhere between probably south, just south of Interstate 70.
04:10That's what it tells me on the upper air map, just looking at the American model.
04:15All right, what about the other models?
04:16Let's go to the European.
04:17Same story here.
04:18Really, pretty good agreement.
04:22American, European, hey, let's go north of the border.
04:25The Canadian, well, that's European as well.
04:27But they all show similar things here.
04:30This is the European AI.
04:32The European AI is a little different, and I'm kind of discounting it.
04:36You can see how different it is.
04:37See, it has the injection of cold air, but you see the northern piece of energy,
04:42which is being shown a little weaker by the European and the American model leaving.
04:48The European AI has it stronger, in which case then that would delay the storm a day.
04:53That would be Wednesday into Thursday.
04:55Based on other modeling I'm looking at, this seems to be a little bit of an outlier.
05:00But based on the fact that we've got the cold, dry air, and we've got this kind of a configuration
05:07where all modeling shows this dip in the jet stream here,
05:11the injection of cold air leaving, the cold, dry air in place, the warmer air here, it seems very likely.
05:18And we highlighted this for you on the Long Range Show with the crystal ball meteorologist Joe Lumberg last week.
05:25You've got a storm coming here Tuesday into Wednesday.
05:27And because you have a temperature difference here, this is going to have not just snow but some ice.
05:34So let's take a look at this.
05:36This is the GFS, the American model, Sunday evening.
05:40Here it comes.
05:41You see this?
05:41Monday into Tuesday.
05:43And the other thing that you see is you see this big high-pressure system in here.
05:491040 millibar high.
05:50This is going to funnel the cold air down.
05:53So what this tells me, you've got an opportunity as we get into Monday night, Tuesday, somewhere probably across north
06:02of Interstate 80 in this area,
06:03and I'm afraid it could be southeastern New England.
06:05We could see over six inches of snow.
06:08Farther south, there's some ice.
06:09That's the American model.
06:11What about the European model?
06:13Very similar.
06:14You've got this.
06:15Here we come a little later, but see in the Tuesday, Wednesday, same story here with snow and ice.
06:22Ice south of Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania.
06:25What could be a thumping snow, southern New York State and southern New England.
06:29The European AI a little later and a little farther north, but still a storm.
06:33So the message on the feed is nuisance snow the next couple of days, but Tuesday into Wednesday, some snow
06:43and ice across the northeast, and maybe a thumping snow.
06:47So get ready.
06:49It's common.
06:50It's coming.
06:50It's coming.
06:50We're coming.
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