00:00Here on the forecast feed, we want to give you an update on the potential, and the key
00:05word there is potential for weekend snow, Sunday and Monday along the east coast of
00:10the U.S. There will be some snow around. We have a couple of disturbances moving through,
00:14but the question is, will there be a powerhouse coastal storm? And again, there was pretty
00:19good alignment among many models on Tuesday late afternoon and mid-afternoon, and we talked
00:25about that, but the European, the primary European model was never on board. It was kind of standing
00:31alone. We want to take a look at where this storm is and its various fragmented pieces at this point,
00:37still a long ways away, and again, the most likely scenario may be hedging a little more toward this
00:44not being a big storm. So the fiction aspect of this here, we are likely to see this probably just
00:51a little too far east, a little too late in the game to develop to really bring a big payoff
00:56for significant east coast snow, but it's not a done deal yet. So one thing for the weekend,
01:02there is potential for snow for the coastal northeast, and even if it is a little offshore,
01:07there will likely at least be some snow for south Jersey up into places like Long Island,
01:13southeast parts of Massachusetts, Sunday into Monday into southeast New England, but are we looking
01:18at one to three inches of snow, or are we looking at something far greater, like double-digit
01:24accumulations? So that's what we want to get into here. So overall, let's take a look at the models,
01:29then we'll take a look at some of our forecasts here, a few of our forecast graphics internally.
01:35So I want to go back in time. Here we have the GFS, and here is the European. Similar to
01:42yesterday,
01:42the European has been consistent, while other models have been tending toward the European,
01:48but the GFS does have a pretty powerful storm. It's a little farther southeast compared to where
01:54it was, you know, I'm just going to plot an actual low here, a little southeast of where it was
02:0024
02:00hours ago. But regardless, the European is still not as organized and not as strong, and there's still
02:10a trough there and an area of low pressure that it gets going, but it's pretty anemic looking compared
02:14to the slightly more aggressive solutions like the GFS. So regardless, if we take the GFS solution,
02:21which would be something closer to a high-impact event, not as big of a deal as it would have
02:26been
02:2624 hours earlier, but let's track this back in time. We're going to track this back, pressing pause,
02:32Saturday night to Sunday morning. We can highlight there is the primary shortwave here. And again,
02:39there would be a couple of contributions here, contributors, a northern branch and a southern
02:44branch feature. But the primary wave that would drive this system, here we are Thursday, midday,
02:52it would be out here over British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies. Let's go back a little farther
02:57to show you where it is now. And basically, it would be pooling southward right now. This is the relevant
03:04shortwave, the disturbance that's just entering the North American landmass. And it's going to get
03:08sampled a little bit better by upper level, well, we're going to get more weather balloons that
03:14get eyes on this, and they are able to sample the atmosphere as this moves into parts of the
03:20southwest sections of Canada and the northwestern US. And again, it'll be sampled better as it moves
03:25over land. So it's still a long ways away. But as we watch this evolve in the European or in
03:33the GFS
03:34model, here it digs, it really gets moving pretty rapidly to the southeast this weekend. Sunday
03:39morning, here's your area of low pressure aloft. Here's the shortwave digging down through St. Louis,
03:45and it races southeast. The trough goes negative, negative tilt, northwest to southeast. You think
03:52of that old Y equals MX plus B, remember that from maybe high school math? If it's tilted down,
03:59negative slope, that's the tilt that we're talking about. And those are more aggressive storms when
04:04they tilt northwest to southeast, as opposed to when they're tilted from southwest to northeast.
04:09So this would be still a fairly aggressive storm, but it's trending a little farther south, a little
04:13bit farther south and east. One of the pieces that Bernie's been tracking, and I agree with him here,
04:19is this area of low pressure that precedes that. If that lingers too long, it would drive it all the
04:26way to the south. It does get out of the way for this storm to move in, but it doesn't
04:33necessarily
04:34hug the coast enough for us to see this produce a big, significant snow. Now, this really spins up.
04:40Let's take a look at the European in contrast. Here you can see, here comes our shortwave.
04:44It's not as pesky, not as, there's the GFS in east central parts of South Dakota. Here is the
04:51European. As it moves farther southeast Sunday morning, here we have a sharpening trough with the
04:58GFS, a sharpening trough with the European. It's a little more open, really flabby looking here.
05:03And you can see that as that digs down to the southeast, it is not as sharp. The trough is
05:10just
05:10shaped too broad to really significantly amplify and rapidly strengthen near the coast. So let's look
05:17at some model comparisons. Here's the GFS, one of the slightly more interesting scenarios. It brings
05:23significant snow to the Atlantic City area, to South Delaware. Now, keep in mind, some of these
05:28areas, marginal cold temperatures here in place. The storm would manufacture some of its own cold air
05:34if this were the solution that verified. But it still largely misses Philadelphia and New York
05:39regarding big snow. The European, this is out to sea. This is an out to sea scenario. It doesn't even
05:44bring snow to Cape Cod. The GFS AI, it is also trending out to sea compared to yesterday in a
05:53big way. The European AI, it is brushing South Jersey and Delmarva with the rain-snow mix ending
06:00as snow. The Canadian model, this is still a hard hit there in South Jersey. And the UK met another
06:06opinion. Reasonable amount of snow in South Jersey, but it really misses New York City. So quick look at
06:10some snowfall amounts. I have this trimmed down to a 36-hour window, so we're just only looking at
06:15this storm, and it's subtracting out the snow that will have fallen Friday. You're going to see some
06:20snow in New England on Friday. But let's subtract that out, just looking at a 24-hour accumulation.
06:25Pretty modest there in the GFS. Light snow in the interior with the interior disturbance.
06:30There's the European, it's out to sea. But there will be some accumulating snow in Central and
06:34Western Pennsylvania. The Canadian, it's seven inches of snow in Atlantic City, but just maybe three in
06:39New York. And the UK met, it misses New York, but it does bring several inches to South Jersey. So
06:44we got to keep an eye on this here, and we're going to close this out with a look at,
06:48again, our forecast.
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