00:00All right, it's going to be a tough forecast for the feed today. We're going to take a look at
00:09the snow potential across the Northeast as we head toward Sunday and Sunday afternoon. We've
00:16been following this storm for you. Well, we talked about this last week, but I want to show you that
00:21I do think that we are going to be looking at some snow in New York City, Long Island, and eastern
00:28New England, maybe the Jersey Shore. Do I believe it's a big snowstorm? I do not believe that, and I'll
00:34show you why. Now, let's take a look. I want to show you this. This is kind of the snow potential
00:41map that we're looking at here as we head into the weekend here. This is it right now. Let me
00:49take this. There we go. So there's the storm. It's going to stay mostly offshore, but I do believe
00:58that the potential is there Sunday, Sunday afternoon from the Delmarva Peninsula, New
01:03Jersey, up in the eastern New England here. Now, better chances the farther east you go. That's
01:09the dark blue across the Cape and Islands, but I do think it can start there as rain and then end as
01:15a period of snow. Now, let me show you why I do think the precipitation is going to come farther north
01:20and west, Sunday and the Sunday afternoon, and then I want to show you why I think that we're not
01:27looking at a big snowstorm here. Let's begin with what we were looking at yesterday, and the time
01:33frame we've already always been looking at was that Sunday night time frame. I want to show you the
01:38European model, and I want to show you the slight difference that it's beginning to show and what
01:43other modeling is showing that tells me the precip is getting back a little farther west. Sunday
01:48happened now. So, this was yesterday. You see how you have this piece of energy up here in New
01:53England. So, what that was doing was that was moving. It's actually this piece right here. This
01:59piece of energy right here moving. There it is, Saturday afternoon. It's right here. Okay. Sunday
02:06morning, this piece in here. What this was shown to do was heading out ahead of this southern air
02:14energy in here. Let me show you what it looks like on the European. So, you see as we get toward
02:18Sunday evening, this piece runs up Saturday, Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening. This runs up across
02:26New England, and what that does is it then drives this other energy that's across the southern tier
02:35out to sea. That's what it was doing. So, this piece runs out ahead, takes this southern piece,
02:41which is in a sense the storm, and drives it out to sea. Nobody gets anything along the east coast,
02:46but there's been a subtle change with this. 24 hours later, watch what happens. This is what
02:52we're looking at now. You see what's going on? That piece of energy is back in here across
02:58Pennsylvania. You see that? And then you've got the whole, see? You have that energy. Look at the
03:03red. I'll put this up here so you can see it a little better here. You have that energy. Instead of
03:08it being this, in here, it's back there. One o'clock, watch this. See, there is that, there is
03:16the piece yesterday across Vermont, New Hampshire, driving the southern piece out to sea. Now, it's
03:21farther back, and then you've got all of this energy in here coming across where? Southeastern New
03:28England, you get a little upward motion, you get the snow. Now, other modeling, and there's a ton of
03:34modelings that are showing this now. Let me show you this is the European AIF, the AI model. Look at
03:41that. Look at that trough back, axis back across New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. Now, it does
03:47weaken as it swings through, but it's also becoming what I call negatively tilted. So, what that means is,
03:53let me put this up at the top so you can see it a little better. So, what that tells me is, with this
03:58becoming a little negatively tilted right here, you get upward motion across southeastern New
04:03England. Let's take a look at the UK MET model. Same thing. You see that area? It starts to get a
04:11little negatively tilted, tilted from northeast, northwest to southeast, coming across eastern New
04:17England. That's going to produce some snow. How about the Canadian? Same thing. This piece comes across
04:23southeastern New England. Presto, we get the snow across eastern New England again. All right, let me
04:30show you the surface map, and then you can see what I'm talking about. So, this is the European model,
04:35the operational. Mostly offshore, Sunday, Sunday night. You see that? Mostly offshore, except for eastern New
04:42England and also eastern Long Island. Southeastern New England, eastern Massachusetts toward eastern Long
04:50Island. That is the European. This is the AI model. So, look how much farther west it is. Why? Because
04:57it has a stronger piece of energy farther west. That's the AI model, the European. How about the
05:03Canadian model? Very similar. Back to the west. Not quite as far to the west, but you can, there it is.
05:10Look at that. There's Sunday evening, and then the UK mat, another model, showing it as well.
05:17So, what do I think is going to happen? I think it's going to snow. I don't think it's going to get
05:21the Baltimore or Washington, D.C., maybe flurries. I don't think it gets far as Philadelphia. Let me go
05:27back to the map here. This is where, I think, where we have the potential map is where you're going to get
05:33some snow Sunday night. Now, and I think it can get back in here, Jersey Shore. I think the back is
05:40toward New York City. It goes toward Hartford. It goes toward Boston, and it comes up in the eastern
05:45New England. I think these areas are going to get some accumulating snow. Now, I don't believe
05:52many areas get more than three inches out of this. I don't. Now, if someone does, it'll be
05:57southeastern Massachusetts. Now, the Cape and eastern Long Island, you may end up having heavier
06:03precipitation, but I'm concerned you lose some as rain at the start. But I think the highest I can
06:11see with this right now is a three to six inch area, where I can see it in toward the Boston.
06:17I can see it back in here, in here a small area like this, and then up in the eastern New England in
06:23here. But I don't think you're going to see many places that get more than six inches of snow out
06:28of this. But it is enough snow that we're going to have to keep an eye on it. When it's going to get
06:34there, as we get into Sunday, Sunday afternoon, the divisional game in Foxborough on Sunday
06:41between Houston and New England, I think there's going to be some snow for you. And then batting down
06:52the hatches. We've got a lot of cold and some snow chances next week. And that's the feed.
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