00:00The potential for an East Coast snowstorm is there. Late next week, there's actually
00:13two possibilities. Either one hits or they both miss. You're not going to get two of
00:18them, but you can get one. And I'm telling you right now, Thursday into Friday, the first
00:23chance is razor close to being a big East Coast snowstorm, but it could also be offshore.
00:27Now, I drew this earlier this week at the urging of Joe Lumberg, the Crystal Ball, and Paul
00:34Pastelok. And this is the graphic. This is the pattern. This is the classic way. You
00:40get a dip in the jet stream coming in across the Midwest. Now, depending on where that sets
00:45up, you're going to get a storm to form. And it's always the million-dollar question, does
00:50the storm go out to sea or a track like this, and you get a miss, and you get a limited snow,
00:55snow, or does it get guided up the coast, and on the northwest side, you end up getting
01:00a snowstorm because there's an injection of cold air on the backside of the storm. It's
01:05not Arctic air, but it is cold enough to snow. Now, as we do on the feed, the whole reason
01:12for the feed is I want to show you the modeling that I'm looking at, and I want you to get
01:18in my head and see what I'm looking at here. Scary situation to always get in my head,
01:24but let's talk about it. I want to show you this. This is the pattern, remember? Here's
01:28your dip in the jet stream. Now, here's the key. For an East Coast snowstorm, you've got
01:33to get this southern energy to run out of the northern piece, and the trough axis has
01:39to at least be what I call neutral. That is, the trough axis is far enough west, and it's
01:46like this. This would be a neutral trough axis because then you would get southerly flow
01:52and you would guide the storm up the coast. Now, if you really want a storm, you need
01:56to be more of a negative trough axis, and that would be like this. Like this. Axis is
02:07like this, and you get more of a south-to-southeasterly steering flow, and that definitely brings it
02:11up the coast. Now, I want to show you what's going on. Here's the European and the GFS.
02:14The first shot is Thursday into Friday. Watch your trough axis. Come on. Here we go. Thursday
02:21into Friday. Let me stop at Friday evening. Boy, this is close because what you have is,
02:29number one, look at this energy coming down here. This is getting out ahead of the northern
02:34piece. You see how the northern piece is back across the lake? Now, the trough axis on the
02:39European is, it's close. It's not quite, it's close to being neutral. Watch. Right there,
02:46it starts to go negative a little bit. Right in there. But, because you have another piece
02:52of energy coming on down, it moves this southern piece instead of up the coast like this. Watch
03:00where it goes. It goes more like this. Watch it. Right here. Here's the key move. Key move
03:06on the European. Thursday into Thursday. Right there. See how it goes offshore. It is razor
03:12thin, though, and close. Because when you look at the surface map on the European, watch where
03:18the storm forms. See that push to the east of that energy Thursday night keeps the storm
03:23just offshore, but look how close it is. I mean, that's razor close for a snowstorm for Philadelphia,
03:29New York City, Washington, D.C., and up into New England. Razor close. Now, let's look at the GFS.
03:38Little different here. Here's the European. Here's the European. I'm going to stop this. There it is
03:42Friday, Thursday night. That's the European. Look at the GFS. Now, big difference. Small differences make
03:50big, big, big differences in the surface. You see how this energy is back here. That's the European.
03:59You see the northern piece? See where it is? Watch the GFS. No, it's here, and it's cut off. And look
04:06at the trough axis. What do we got? Neutral. So now we have a southerly wind aloft. Take a look at
04:13Friday morning. European. GFS. It is a negatively tilted trough, and what that does is what surface
04:23low we have is going to be driven back. So let's take a look at the surface map on the American
04:29model, which, by the way, I'm less of a believer in typically. Surface map. This is Europe. Watch the
04:37American model. Here comes your storm. Here it comes. Watch its storm. Now watch. It is coming
04:43back. Look at the snow. This is all snow. Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and D.C. You're on the
04:50back edge of it. That's the GFS. Look at it go. It's still a little offshore, but it is close.
04:59That's the first time frame Thursday into Friday. Now, the reason why we may miss it along the East
05:05Coast is you've got this energy in here. What that is doing, and the European shows this as well,
05:11see, it kicks this energy. Instead of coming up, I think it just kicks it just enough offshore
05:17that there would be a glancing blow from eastern New England all the way down to New York City and
05:23Philadelphia, but it's really close. I mean, razor thin. So we've got to keep an eye on this Thursday
05:28into Friday. It's close. The potential's there. Now, European is a little interesting,
05:35because I talked about this a couple days ago, that the Europeans showed a possibility
05:39then if this missed, there'd be another possibility. Well, here we go. Thursday morning, Thursday
05:45afternoon. So Thursday morning, Friday morning, this piece just misses, but look what's going
05:49on here. Now, this is the reason why this, the storm gets pushed out the sea, because you've
05:54got additional energy. But look what this does on the European. The GFS doesn't show it,
06:00but look what this does. Friday morning, Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning. Oh, look at that.
06:09Big trough coming in here. This would be Sunday night into Monday. Surface map. There's your
06:19snowstorm. Washington, D.C. Close call, New York City. I think it's snow, but you could be rain,
06:26but look at that. Right up in New England. A very intriguing setup for late next week. Two
06:34possibilities. Thursday into Friday, Sunday into Monday. You're not going to get both. You're
06:41going to get either one of them hits, or they both miss. That's the way I see it. But the
06:47key is, is this. The weather pattern. It's ripe for an East Coast snowstorm. The potential's
06:55there. Let's see if it hits. And that's the feed.
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