Could there be a snowstorm in the Northeast late next week?

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the potential for a snowstorm in the Northeast late next week.

Transcript

00:00Well, on the feed today, we're going to go ahead to next week. Remember last week,

00:11I talked about the possibilities. We're going to have to keep an eye along the East Coast

00:15between the 12th and the 18th of January next week. We're going to have to keep an eye on that.

00:21The pattern is unfolding that there's the potential for snow along the East Coast late

00:28next week. I'm not sure how it's all going to materialize, but there is the pattern that

00:37brings the threat. I want to show you this. This is the pattern. Now, we've had this pattern a lot

00:42of times in December, and it's never materialized for a big storm, and here's why. First of all,

00:48we're going to see a big dip in the jet stream coming in back across the Northeast and the

00:53lakes late next week. Here's the key. There will be energy in the southern branch of the jet stream

01:00that forms the storm. Does this storm run out ahead of this dip in the jet stream in the northern branch

01:06and be guided up the coast? If it does, there will be a snowstorm. It'll be mostly north and west of

01:12the 95, but I'm not sure yet, but there would be a snowstorm here from the Mid-Atlantic to the

01:17Northeast. However, if the energy in the southern branch doesn't get out ahead of this dip in the

01:23jet stream, and we've seen that time and time again since the winter or since the late fall,

01:29then the storm goes out to sea, and there's a limited amount of snow. That's the pattern for

01:37next week. Now, I know a lot of you are saying, hey, he's always calling for a snowstorm. I'm not.

01:42I'm telling you that the pattern is there for an East Coast snowstorm. It's there. Whether it

01:50materializes, that's what we're going to try to show you here, and I'll show you why you could.

01:55I'm going to show you the American model, and I think when I show you the American model, I may

01:59break the internet because it shows a big snowstorm. I'm not sure it's right, but I'll show you why

02:04it's a possibility, and we all go back to this. I talk about this all the time. It's called what?

02:10The Rayna rule. Whenever you get an injection of cold air, you have two opportunities for snow.

02:16As the cold air comes in on the front end or as the cold air gets established, and then the storm

02:23tries to attack the cold air, and then you get back into the snow with the injection of cold air.

02:28In this case, it's going to be on the front end of the storm, so it follows my rule that I follow

02:36pretty closely, and I'm going to show it to you. I want to show you how the cold air is coming in

02:40as we head into next week. Now, this is Monday, January the 12th, and there's virtually no cold

02:46air, but watch what happens in here. This is your injection of cold air. All of the modeling is

02:52showing this because all of the modeling shows this dip in the jet stream coming east, so here comes.

02:58Here comes the cold air. Wednesday and the Thursday, you see the cold air coming into the lakes?

03:03This will be chance number one. That'll be late Wednesday into Thursday. Now, if that doesn't

03:11materialize, you've got another dip in the jet stream and another surge of colder air coming when

03:16Friday into Saturday. That will be chance number two. So there's two opportunities for snow next week

03:25from the mid-Atlantic to the northeast. Now, let me show you the modeling here. I'm going to show you

03:30the European first, which is less impressive. Let's show you that one first. So here's the pattern

03:36as we get into late next week. Watch. See, you've got this big dip in the jet stream coming here

03:41Wednesday into Thursday. You see that? So here comes the cold air. Now, here's the key. You see the

03:47northern branch and the southern branch. You see the southern branch energy? For this to turn into a

03:53snowstorm Wednesday into Thursday, this energy has to come out ahead of this northern piece right in

03:59here. This has to run out ahead of this. This would form the storm, then come to the northeast. Now,

04:04the European says no. European says, uh-uh, ain't happening. But you see how the energy goes with

04:10the storm? It's moving the northern piece and the southern piece move at the same speed. So what ends

04:17up happening? Well, look at the surface map. We do get a storm to form Wednesday into Thursday,

04:22but watch where it goes. Out to sea, and it's a miss. You see that? There it is, Thursday. Out to sea,

04:30miss. We've seen this time and time again. Now, what I'm about to show you is going to get everybody

04:35excited. It's the American model. I'm skeptical of it, but it's worth me showing you. First of all,

04:43there's the European. There's the American model. Very similar. Notice they both show a dip in the jet

04:49stream coming across the lakes and moving to the northeast. But the difference is going to be

04:54this piece. The American model strengthens it and brings it out ahead of this northern piece,

05:01and you get a snowstorm. Watch it. Right here. Boom, boom. I mean, boom. There it is, Friday morning,

05:11Friday evening. Look at that. You've got an upper level L going right up the Appalachians.

05:15What does it look like on a surface map? Now, for those that want snow, relax. I'm not saying it's

05:20going to happen, but it's going to excite you if you want snow and depress you if you don't.

05:27Watch this. Thursday, here comes the storm. Where is it forming? Down here. But because that energy is

05:34out ahead of this trough, watch where it goes. Watch where it goes. Boom, boom, boom. Look at...

05:40Now, this would be rain. I'm for Philadelphia and New York City, but there could be some front-end

05:45snow. This would be a huge snowstorm for the Appalachians. But remember, if this storm's a

05:50little farther east, then the I-95's in it. So I think the threat is there Thursday into Friday.

05:56There it goes. Now, again, that's the American model. The European model says, no,

06:04it's not there. It's there. That's chance number one. Chance number two. That goes... Let's show

06:12you the European. There we go. Misses. But see, now you've got another trough coming down. You see

06:18that? Right in here. That's Saturday, Sunday. And you'll notice, there's a northern piece,

06:24southern piece. European says, there's going to be just enough energy out ahead of it

06:30that you've got a shot along the I-95 corridor over the weekend. The GFS says, no, it's out

06:37to sea. Two chances. Thursday next week and then over the weekend. What's going to verify?

06:47Not sure yet. But remember this pattern. And remember, the opportunity is there.

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