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00:00Just Baseball Show exclusively here on SportsGrid coming your way in about 28 minutes from now.
00:05One of the hosts of the show is Peter Apple joins us, courtesy of Just Baseball, to go over the latest in the offseason.
00:12And Peter, welcome back to the show as we got this hot stove that's yet to percolate,
00:18which, you know, honestly, in this day and age in baseball usually doesn't happen until 2026, you know, like the next year.
00:24Everyone wants to make up stories like it's about to happen and, oh, it should happen by the winter meetings.
00:28Nobody really knows the answer to this.
00:30But what we do have is a couple of trades to discuss, which we didn't see coming.
00:35So at least that gives us some fun content.
00:37Let's start off with the freshest one, the one today where former Red Sox general manager Heim Bloom,
00:43now running the show in St. Louis, seemingly headed towards somewhat of a rebuild, I think it's fair to say,
00:49sheds Sonny Gray some of his salary and gets a couple of prospects that he was familiar with with his time in Boston.
00:56So it does make a ton of sense there.
00:58The Red Sox are in win now mode.
01:00The Cardinals are in we'll wait and see kind of mode.
01:02And then the key figure here is obviously Cardinals having to pay to say goodbye to Sonny Gray.
01:09It's being reported $20 million going to Boston.
01:13So, you know, that's the direction the Cardinals are headed right now.
01:17And Heim Bloom did this with Boston a little bit.
01:19He's doing it now with St. Louis and had a lot of success with the Red Sox, too.
01:22I think unfairly let go at the time.
01:24Yeah, I agree with you on that point.
01:26But I think this trade makes a lot of sense for both sides.
01:29The Red Sox, they came out this offseason and they said we are in the market for a true number two starter.
01:36And when Sonny Gray got traded to them about two hours ago, I think initial reactions were,
01:41is this really the number two that we're looking for?
01:44I think so.
01:46When you look at Sonny Gray and you look at a 4-2-8 ERA from last season, I understand the reaction.
01:52But if you look under the hood, Sonny Gray had some of the best underlying metrics in Major League Baseball.
01:59Two areas that he really excels in is striking out the world and limiting the walks.
02:05That's why, you know, these ERA predictors like FIP and Sierra and XFIP and all these fancy stats
02:11that baseball nerds like myself look at, he strikes everybody out and he doesn't walk anybody.
02:17Over the last two seasons, Sonny Gray is one of three pitchers with at least 400 strikeouts
02:23and just 80 walks or less, joining Derek Skubel and Garrett Crochet.
02:29So I think this is a great get for the Red Sox.
02:32But on the other side, you have to be happy with the prospect return to the Cardinals.
02:37Brandon Clark is right outside Arum, who you'll hear again on the Just Baseball show in about,
02:43what is this, 26 minutes?
02:45Right outside the top 10 prospects.
02:47But the Red Sox have a really solid system.
02:50Last season, 60 strikeouts in just 38 innings.
02:54Left-handed pitching prospect.
02:55Really good stuff.
02:56And then you have Richard Fitz on the other side, who's a 25-year-old profiles as more
03:00of a back-end starter.
03:02But for $20 million, I think it's fair in order to bring those arms in with years of control.
03:08Yeah, good stuff, I think, as you said, for both sides.
03:11The more interesting deal, I think, happened a couple of days ago where Brandon Nimmo, who
03:16was a fan favorite and a Met favorite for a number of years, he spent his whole career
03:21in New York, got the extension and a no-trade clause, had to get talked into going to the
03:26Texas Rangers.
03:27And in return, the Mets' composition changes as they get Marcus Simeon here.
03:31And I know that there's some, you know, certainly money involved here.
03:34But it did feel simply like a baseball trade, where both teams were trying to change the
03:39dynamic of the team.
03:41Did you like one side better than the other in this deal?
03:44I actually, I know I just said it about the Cardinals and the Red Sox, where I thought
03:47it was a win-win.
03:48But I also think this is a win-win when you look at what both teams need right now.
03:54The Mets, going into the offseason, just like Breslow said with the Red Sox, they need a
03:58number two.
03:59Dave Stearns came out and said, we need to get better defensively.
04:02And I understand why.
04:03The Mets, by outs above average, were a bottom 10 defensive team in Major League Baseball.
04:09And Brandon Nimmo, while he is a solid bat, is not necessarily the solution defensively.
04:16You know who is Marcus Simeon.
04:18And when you compare these two players, you look at all the offensive statistics.
04:23Brandon Nimmo, clearly the better bat at this point in his career.
04:27But over the last two seasons, Marcus Simeon has a higher war.
04:31How could that be possible with a guy with an OPS below 700?
04:34It's because he's still playing elite defense.
04:37So what the Mets get is an elite up the middle duo defensively with Francisco Lindor and Marcus
04:43Simeon, and they also save $30 million in the process.
04:47So they could go back out to the corner outfield market, maybe go get a Cody Bellinger, maybe
04:53go all in for Kyle Tucker, maybe keep attacking the trade market.
04:57Because on our top 100 prospects, they have eight top 100 guys, at least all teams.
05:04So they can potentially go get a Tatis.
05:07I don't know if that's actually happening, but they can be malleable in the market.
05:12Well, on the Ranger side, it's pretty easy.
05:14You get the better bat, he's younger, and with the way their contracts are laid out, they
05:20actually save $5.5 million over the next two years because Simeon's is more backloaded
05:25while Brandon Nimmo is a longer term deal, just a lower AAV.
05:30So Rangers get better offensively, Mets get better defensively, and save some money in
05:36the process.
05:37Again, I think it's a win-win.
05:39Yeah, and Peter, let's not stop there with the Texas Rangers because, again, a new manager,
05:44new team composition, obviously incoming here because not only is Marcus Simeon gone, but
05:50so is Adalis Garcia, who was non-tendered by the Texas Rangers, along with Jonah Heim.
05:55We had heard a rumor a couple weeks ago, maybe they were trying to trade these players, obviously
05:59couldn't get anything in return, so they get non-tendered.
06:02Former first-round pick J.J.
06:04Bledet, by the A's, gets let go.
06:06He'll get scooped up quick.
06:07Evan Phillips, once upon a time, was like the main Dodgers closer, and injuries and other
06:12things have set him back.
06:13I'm sure he'll get a new deal.
06:15And then Christopher Morell, with a big bat, shopped around a little bit, also let go
06:19as well.
06:20So let's start off with Garcia here, who was one of the World Series heroes for the Rangers
06:25a couple of years ago.
06:26And, you know, certainly hasn't had that much success since then, but credit to the Rangers
06:32organization for finding him.
06:34Did they wait too long, though, to, you know, to sort of sell high on the player here?
06:39It sort of feels like that, unfortunately.
06:41It feels like that, but I also don't necessarily blame them, because how could they have known?
06:47This guy was a World Series hero back in 2023, and he was known for the prolific power
06:53and his defense.
06:55What happens over the next two years?
06:57Both of them just drop off a cliff.
06:59It's hard getting off that World Series high and say, you know what, we're going to trade
07:02one of our heroes, because we project he's going to fall off a cliff.
07:06It's kind of impossible.
07:07So Adolis Garcia put the Rangers in a really tough position, because I think, and I hope
07:13you agree, that the Rangers were clearly trying to shop him to anyone that would potentially
07:18take him, but they probably surveyed the market and said, well, an aging guy whose best qualities
07:24in the past were power and defense, both of those have fallen off, we're not going to
07:29be able to do much with him, so they had to non-tender him.
07:31I think, again, if you're a Rangers fan, you're fine with it.
07:34You got a World Series out of it.
07:36JJ Bleday, let's hit on him real quick.
07:38He'll get picked up.
07:39I'm sure some team will like some of the things that they saw.
07:42Of course, the Marlins drafted him high.
07:44He was traded to the A's, and he had some bright moments here, but why do you think the A's
07:49decided to give up on Bleday?
07:51It's interesting, because last year, or at least in 2024, a really solid player looked
07:56emerging as one of the better young centerfielders in baseball, but then this previous season
08:01just dropped off the face of the earth.
08:03OPS in the mid-600s, even the defense really fell off in terms of outs above average, was
08:09one of the worst defensive centerfielders.
08:11And again, the year before was kind of his only serviceable year, so I think the A's
08:17are in the bucket.
08:18Well, we don't really want to pay this guy when he's only had one really good season.
08:22Yeah, it does make sense there.
08:24You know, Peter, I think we have so much more to cover here on the show with you, so let's
08:28do this.
08:28We'll take a quick timeout.
08:30We'll come back, and we'll talk about the other potential overseas free agent, where
08:34he could end up.
08:34We'll also get Peter's thoughts early on the American League Rookie of the Year and the National
08:39League Rookie of the Year as just baseball, and the show is coming your way at 1.30 Eastern
08:44exclusively here on SportsGrid.
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09:16More baseball discussion with Peter Apple of Just Baseball up next.
09:20Don't go away.
09:20Welcome back to Newswire here on SportsGrid.
09:23Let's bring back Peter Apple of Just Baseball, the show coming your way in 15 minutes.
09:29They'll break down everything going on in Major League Baseball.
09:32And Peter, a player that I'm not all that familiar with, but then again, I didn't know
09:36Roki Sasaki or Yoshinogibu Yamamoto either.
09:39I guess I got to get familiar with Tatsua Imai.
09:43I hope I'm getting that right.
09:45A fantastic pitcher coming from overseas immediately.
09:48Strikes down reports that he wants to join all those guys in LA.
09:52So, I mean, I guess this has people excited.
09:54I'm not sure how legitimate, by the way, this is because money is money at the end of the
09:59day, but this guy has come out and thrown some pretty high barbs here saying that he
10:03wants to take down the Dodgers with whatever team that he goes to.
10:06I guess if you could buy that.
10:07I guess that makes the Giants pretty happy here, right, Peter?
10:10Like the Giants seemingly would be like, all right, we can't get anybody else to play here.
10:13Maybe this guy will come.
10:15Yeah, 100%.
10:16What an interesting quote here to basically say, I don't want to play on a team with other
10:21Japanese players.
10:22And I want to be the guy to take down the Dodgers.
10:26I think if you are a Giants fan, your eyes are bugging out of your head, just like a cartoon,
10:32you know, would fall in love with some guy.
10:33And they should, because this guy can be a potentially solid number two starter.
10:39If we look at, you know, what he's done in the MPB, it's that similar low slot delivery,
10:45which gives that fastball, that additional ride up into the zone.
10:48But he's also got three above average pitches as well.
10:52The question with Imai is command.
10:55That was his only real issue in the MPB.
10:58And of course, it's a different baseball coming over to Major League Baseball.
11:02So if he's able to command those four pitches in the zone, he can truly reach some of the
11:07better pitchers in Major League Baseball.
11:10But if he continues to walk three and a half, four per nine, he'll likely slide into a number
11:15three starter where in a playoff series, you'd be comfortable handing him the ball in game
11:20three, but he has the upside to feel really good about handing him the ball in game two.
11:25So I'm looking at you, San Francisco Giants.
11:27I'm also looking at you, the New York Yankees.
11:29And I also wouldn't be surprised if the Toronto Blue Jays got involved.
11:33They've said that they are willing to spend more money.
11:35They also should be in the market for a starting pitcher.
11:39So those three teams, I believe, should be the front runners at this point for Tatsuya Imai.
11:46Yeah, well, I'm looking forward to catching this guy pitch.
11:48And of course, a lot of success for these pitchers from overseas in the first year of pitching,
11:54usually in Major League Baseball.
11:55Then things get a little dicey.
11:57Okay, so we thought we would take a look, Peter, because you guys are so caught up here
12:01on prospects and players that we're going to see next year on the rookie of the year.
12:05These are odds that are posted courtesy of DraftKings.
12:08Believe it or not, they have these out already in November.
12:11So I want to ask you about everybody beyond Trey Savage,
12:14who I think provides the least value to win this award,
12:17because we're coming off recency bias of watching him pitch, of course, in the World Series.
12:23Kevin McCongle is plus 550.
12:26He was very impressive, I know, in the Arizona Fall League.
12:29Sam Basayo, who can play right now for the Orioles and did a little bit last year.
12:34Connelly Early, Chase Lauder, Carter Jensen.
12:37So, you know, there's two or three names here I think the common folks out there watching
12:40may not be familiar with at all.
12:42I know from an odds perspective, Peter, what I wouldn't do is just bet the favorite here,
12:47because this is what we're coming off the most recent watching.
12:50Not to say the East Savage can't be great, because he can be,
12:53but it's such a short sample of what we saw in the World Series.
12:56Yeah, first off, I am limiting all pitchers if I'm choosing a Rookie of the Year award winner.
13:02We just saw it in the National League, in the battle between Cade Horton and Drake Baldwin.
13:08Cade Horton didn't get exactly the number of innings that the voters wanted to,
13:12even though he pitched to an ERA below three, and they gave it to Drake Baldwin.
13:17Normally, in a tie, tie goes to the hitter.
13:20We even saw it a few years ago between Spencer Schreider and Michael Harris.
13:24It's also just harder for these pitchers to stay consistently healthy and reach, you know, their maximum.
13:29So, Trey is savage. I think he can be a good pitcher, but that's not who I'm looking at.
13:34I'm actually looking at the bottom of that graphic.
13:37Carter Jensen. Jensen has prolific power.
13:42It might not show up in terms of 40 home runs, but it shows up in the exit velocity department
13:46when it comes to potentially 20 to 25 home runs, but potentially 25 to 30 doubles.
13:52But he's not a boom-or-bust type power hitter like we've seen in the past.
13:57He's proven that he can limit the strikeouts while also getting on base at a really sizable clip.
14:03Look at just the small segment of games he had last year with the Royals.
14:07Once he came up, he was one of the better hitters on their team,
14:10and it will be interesting to see what the Royals do because, of course, they still have Salvador Perez.
14:16Is it going to be Jensen as their starting catcher on opening day,
14:19or is it going to be Salvador Perez with Jensen playing in the DH spot?
14:23So, the reason I like Jensen is because the bat is super, super loud,
14:27but also there's a clear lane for playing time here with the Royals
14:33where they want to see what they get out of this young catcher.
14:36At those odds, I think you should be much closer to the favorite
14:39because when you look at each guy above him, it's either a pitcher
14:43or it's a bat where we don't know exactly what the play time will look like.
14:48Still love Samuel Visayo, but Jensen has better value.
14:52And, Peter, in the nationally, it's a little bit more up in the air, I would say.
14:56So, Nolan McLean, I guess you wouldn't be in on that
14:58because, again, he's a pitcher on the Mets.
15:01But beyond that, Sal Stewart, pretty impressive.
15:03At the end of the season with what we saw, I guess the question is,
15:06does he fall in line with all of these other impressive for a short period of time
15:10with the Reds guys?
15:11McLean and so many other Reds come up, they do well,
15:13and then you just don't know what to expect in the future.
15:15J.J. Weatherholt, man, I mean, what noise did this guy make
15:18at the end of last season, former first-round pick of the Cardinals
15:21not that long ago, kind of like that at 7-1.
15:24When you look at those names on the list, does anybody pop out to you?
15:27J.J. Weatherholt certainly pops out.
15:30The only way I wouldn't bet on him is if he doesn't start on opening day for the Cardinals,
15:35but that bat is going to play.
15:36But I actually want to mention a guy that isn't even on that graphic.
15:39His name is Carson Benj of the New York Mets.
15:42The Mets are in need of a center fielder, and everybody says,
15:45well, they'll go out and sign one.
15:46But one of their top prospects in their organization
15:49is Carson Benj, who plays center field,
15:52had a great year in the minor leagues, just continues to get better.
15:55And if you look at our prospect rankings on JustBaseball.com,
15:57you'll notice that all of the grades for him are above average.
16:01Above average power, speed, plate discipline, arm and center field,
16:04just a really good baseball player.
16:07And if you're the starting center fielder for the Mets
16:08and you're having a good season, voters are going to notice.
16:12Peter, what's coming up on the show here in about 10 minutes?
16:16Arm and Jack are coming on, and they're talking to Marcus Semien, Trey.
16:19They're talking about a lot of things that we just discussed,
16:22except you're getting kind of a different perspective there.
16:25And they are much better even than me at breaking down all of the prospects.
16:29So definitely check out that show coming up.
16:31All right. Thanks, Peter.
16:32Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.
16:34Thanks for coming on.
16:35Happy Thanksgiving to you.
16:36Thanks, Craig.
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