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00:00Playoff race here out on the West Coast. Actually, 1240 start at West with 340 East,
00:04San Francisco and Arizona. Verlander versus Fought on the Mound. Total listed at 9 across
00:09the board and roughly pick them. Minus 110 or so split depending on where you're shopping at.
00:13Verlander has been much better as of late, but understand this, Joe. On the road this year for
00:17Verlander, 53 and two-thirds innings pitched. How about an ERA of 4.53, but an XFIP number of 5.06.
00:25So is he going to have some recency bias or just taking into effect when he goes on the road?
00:29He's just not that good because why? Anytime you pitch out in San Francisco, it's a perfect
00:33pitcher's ballpark. Not in the case for Arizona. If we look at Brandon Fought at home this year,
00:37his numbers aren't that bad as I'm trying to just scribble down. 6.05 ERA. What do you mean,
00:43Donnie? That's terrible. No, but he's got a 4.14 XFIP number, which isn't as bad. Nine is the total
00:49in this game. I got to tell you, maybe a team total for the Arizona Diamondbacks to get Verlander when
00:54he's been pitching well, and maybe it's a time that Arizona can rise up and win another game here.
00:58Arizona in the playoffs. How do you even think about it? It could be a reality.
01:03And what a story it would be, Donnie, for sure, if they're able to do it. But this is,
01:08this Giants lineup has owned Brandon Fought. So to me, I think runs are coming. The Diamondbacks
01:15swinging the bat, great. I have no doubt that they'll be able to get to Verlander and score
01:21enough here. I don't think nine is enough, Donnie. I think this is a dead over in this game here.
01:27You're right. Team total, great. But I like the over for the game as well.
01:32Play it up, baby. Play it up. Get the overs here. That's what we cheer on. 6.40 p.m. tonight. In
01:36Detroit, Detroit, we know, is headed to the playoffs. Cleveland, not headed anywhere. Gavin
01:40Williams versus Jack Flaherty. Look at this number, Joe. Minus 168 at the opening number at FanDuel.
01:46You see the placard that's going to come out at minus 156. It's dropped down to a minus 138.
01:52Everybody else around that minus 150 price point. So money coming in on the Guardians today with a
01:57total of eight. What's up with that big drop? How do you, how do you not beat Cantillo yesterday,
02:03Detroit? My goodness. Yes. Some question marks still on Scooble. But this is a huge series for
02:10the Guardians. It's now or never. They're five and a half games behind Detroit there for the sound.
02:17Listen, five and a half games with two weeks left of baseball. We've seen it, Donnie. One little bit
02:23of a losing streak and the other team goes hot. Detroit needs this game. But you know what the
02:28market is telling you there, Donnie? I don't know. Flaherty is the guy that's going to get it for you
02:33here. So feels like Detroit can win this game, but it feels more like a under for the Guardians
02:42team total in this one. We'll see this one up because I tend to get upset sometimes. A couple
02:48of all team total parlays yesterday. Ended up going two and one, Joe, plus money. You never can
02:51complain. But maybe the easiest game and the highest price game for me was the Boston Red Sox
02:56yesterday, Joe, to score over two and a half runs against those athletics. They scored one early,
03:02left a million players on base, and actually lost that game two to one out right here. So we'll set
03:07the table. Barnett's on the mound here for the athletics today. Not a good pitcher going up against
03:11Lucas Giolito, a heavy favorite for the Boston Red Sox tonight at a 645 start. And you know how
03:17this goes once again, Joe, right? They, talking about the Red Sox, scored one run last night. You
03:22know what they'll do in the first inning. Two for three with runners in scoring position, four runs,
03:27and away they go. Just make me upset. We'll continue with the A's and the Sox next, right here on
03:33the early line. We're going to Boston. Athletics. Red Sox, Joe, just gave the preamble. I'm upset with
03:41the Red Sox. They couldn't play runs for me. And you know what the best part about it was too? It
03:44was set up for the over two and a half easily because you're down two to one late in the game.
03:48You have three at-bats left. Score one run, you go to extras, you get it. They weren't able to do
03:51that, which really upset me. It looks like they should be in for a bounce back today as high as
03:55a minus 180 price point in the marketplace and a total listed at nine. Did the bats wake up today
04:01in Boston? They better. You know, Giolito has been really good for him here this year. But,
04:08you know, again, quietly, the athletics, Donnie, also playing pretty good baseball right now. And
04:14they're not bowing to anybody, but they've got the advantage on the mound. And it feels like maybe
04:20just maybe an under in this spot might be worth a look with a little cooler temperatures rolling in
04:26here at a Fenway. Rolling, rolling, rolling down to Tampa Bay. Oh, look at this one. Kevin
04:32Galsman's on the mound going up against my brethren, Ian Seymour, the left-handed pitcher. By the way,
04:37my last name's Seymour, and I'm a lefty. Could this be supposed to be the life that I was supposed
04:41to be leading, pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays? The total's listed at eight and a side of them
04:46favorite at minus 130 to minus 132, depending where he's shopping at right now, in the favor of
04:51Toronto. Toronto's on a win streak. Toronto's bats are hot here. What do we see down at Steinbrenner
04:56Field in Tampa for you today, Joe? Yeah, Seymour's actually pretty good here,
05:01the young pitcher for the Rays. And Galsman has been, you know, really bounce back a year here.
05:09And like the over last night with those two gas cans on the mound, and we got that, Donnie,
05:15I don't like the over in this one here tonight. I like the under. I think this is going to be a
05:19lower scoring game with the Rays and the Jays. Yeah, talking about lower scoring, I think you might
05:24be having this as well up at Citi Field, a couple thousand miles away, 909, 910. That's San Diego,
05:29and it's the New York Mets. Pavetta versus Peterson. This line opened up, Joe, seven and a
05:34half as a total, still sits at seven and a half across the board. But a total aside here, that's
05:38roughly a pick-em depending on where you're shopping at right now. Both of these teams desperately need
05:43this victory, and the Mets really came to play by using the long ball and smashing Michael King and
05:48the Padres yesterday. Do we see more runs today? Or we get back to, all right, playoff baseball,
05:53two good pitchers. Let's see a 3-2 final. Well, certainly, pitching-wise, advantage Padres,
06:00both the starter and the bullpen here. And I don't trust Peterson in this spot here. Pavetta
06:07has been the guy all year long for the Padres. He's going to have to come up big in this one.
06:12I think they do. I like the Padres to bounce back in a big way here.
06:17Yeah, but that's the Padres bouncing back. And by the way, if we put a nut, like,
06:20is there any chance that you think that the New York Mets don't make the playoffs?
06:24Are they just assured making the playoffs for you? What do you say?
06:27Oh, nothing is assured. None of these teams are playing their best baseball right now. It feels
06:32like all of them are limping to the finish line, Donnie, which makes it very hard to say,
06:37sure, Mets are guaranteed to make, yeah, I don't know.
06:42We'll see what happens here. A team that's looking to make the playoffs for sure,
06:45that's the Seattle Mariners. First place Mariners on a hot streak. They've won 10 games in a row.
06:51They're throwing out Miller today, who's not a good pitcher. You look at the side in this one.
06:55Wait a second. It's a minus 110. Cole Reagans, I don't know if I can trust that guy. Not necessarily.
07:00How about this? If I would have told you on the card today for home pitchers, he's number one,
07:04Joe. 29 innings pitched at home this year. An ERA of 4.97. Donnie, that's terrible. We don't look
07:10at ERA. How about an XFIP of 2.64? I like Kansas City to stop that win streak today.
07:16We get some base knocks, get a good pitching performance out of Reagans and come away with
07:20the victory. What do you say on this one? Well, the problem is, what are you going to get from
07:24Reagans? We haven't seen him in a million years, it feels like. So he's, you know, it's always going
07:31to be, it's always going to be questionable here when you got a guy that is trying to shake off some
07:37rust here after he hasn't pitched in, well, I don't know, it feels like four months. So it's
07:42tough, but when on, you're right, nobody better than him. This feels like an under game though,
07:48as well. I would even look maybe an under in the first five here in this spot. Yeah. Bats came out
07:55to play last night, which they should like every night. Seattle looks like it has an unbelievable
07:59lineup one through nine. And it really came to play yesterday. The lefty Reagans will be on the
08:04mound. You know, they're going to stack all those right-handed batters up against them.
08:07And today, and maybe Cal Raleigh, I'm interested in this show. If there's only two weeks left in
08:11the season, four home runs, isn't crazy, but it's still a pretty good amount to have. If I gave you
08:16the odds and I don't know, I guess other books probably have them as well. Does he talking about
08:20Cal Raleigh, get the 60 home runs this year? It's going to be close. It's going to be really
08:26close. I think that. And as this race tightens up here with the Mariners, it's going to pressure
08:33is going to be on here. So I think it's going to close. 58, 59, I think is what he gets to.
08:39He's just short. Yeah. I want to, I'm telling you, if he gets 60, he's probably got to be the MVP and
08:43also do what they do to every other hitter out there. Move him up into the leadoff spot to get
08:47him an extra at bat a game here for an extra couple swings at that home run. Do it for Cal Raleigh,
08:53let's do it. We'll make two baseball handicaps for Wednesday, coming up next. Back to Major League
08:57Baseball. By the way, Joe, I got a trivia question for you to start the top of this segment before we
09:01get back to the handicaps. Can you name the two players in Major League Baseball history with 50
09:06home runs in a season and 50 strikeouts in a season? Do you know who they are? Multiple strikeouts.
09:13I think I got that. I think that maybe there's one, I think. And didn't we just, I think we just
09:21saw him. Didn't we not last night in Otani with 50 bombs and 50 Ks in the season? You'd have to go
09:27way back to what the babe days. If there was anybody else. That was him. By the way, I've read
09:32the wording differently. It would have been more impressive. It was 50 and 50, but it just says 50
09:36home runs and multiple strikeouts in a season. So what does that mean? Like Babe Ruth hit 50 and like
09:41pitched like an inning or two and got like one or two strike, got like two or three strikeouts.
09:45I need some, I need some depth on that because it doesn't sound as impressive now that I read it.
09:49Like, Hey, 50 home runs and multiple strikeouts. Like, no, like you need, you can't just have
09:53two strikeouts and be like, you had multiple. Yeah. It's 50, 50. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm looking at
10:01this other sports book. I have players with 50 home runs and multiple strikeouts pitching in the same
10:05season. What a dumb way to title that at this point. A 50, 50 sounds absolutely much better. I tell you,
10:10you're not getting any 50, 50s tonight in this game. Talking about the New York Yankees and the
10:14Minnesota twins heel versus Bradley 925, 926 on the rotation to 740 start favorite here for the
10:21Yankees heavy overnight, minus one eighties. They're backtracking a little bit. One 68,
10:25one 75s in the sports landscape here and a total of nine actually think we get runs tonight. We got
10:30them last night in a big way. 10 to one Yankees turned into 10 to nine Yankees. That's 19 runs.
10:36Joe, why can't we get half of those tonight and try to cash in on a total here?
10:39Yeah. I think you're going to, but the question is who in that bullpen is going to
10:45stop the meltdown. Oh yeah, that's right. Back to that rule. We only bet the Yankees in the first
10:50five. Love Louie heel in this spot here. I will lay the half a run with the Yankees in the first
10:57five, because once you get to the six, seventh, eighth, and ninth inning with that bullpen, good
11:01luck. Twins will probably score a whole lot of runs and maybe even an over is in store here tonight.
11:07By the way, looking at Louie heel on the season, let's say we're on the season dating back to may
11:11where the temperature starts to change in major league baseball. He's the worst pitcher on my
11:14card today. Analytically say, hold on now, 41 and a third innings pitched since may a 2.83 ERA
11:19sounds great, but how about his exit number 5.59 absolute disaster. You look at Taj Bradley,
11:2697 and a third innings pitched since may a five ERA and a 428 XFIP number. I'm expecting some runs
11:32to be in the ball yard tonight up there in Minnesota to see how that one plays out.
11:37Playoff baseball. We continue to talk about, even though the playoffs don't start into October,
11:42Texas and Houston, DeGrom versus Javier. DeGrom is a slight favorite today at a minus 135 price and a
11:49total that's listed between seven and a half and eight, depending on where you're shopping at.
11:53Does DeGrom have enough in the tank? Is Javier coming off the IL? Hasn't been that great of a pitcher
11:57here, but you can't afford any more losses if you're the Rangers specifically to a team you're
12:01trying to chase down. Do or die situation tonight in Houston for the Texas Rangers.
12:07Yeah. Listen, Rangers need DeGrom to show up and he has. Don, let's be realistic. He is,
12:14what a bounce back year for him. And they are going to need him to shut down this lineup that,
12:20you know, they scored a lot of runs against Merrill Kelly early and then didn't score again late.
12:27Don't forget the Astros lineup, I believe Donnie, currently after the all-star break,
12:31one of the worst in scoring runs per game. Let's die just about four runs a game here.
12:38Christian Javier still trying to work off the rust, Donnie. I mean, he's gotten beat up here.
12:42He's given up at least four runs in three of his past four starts. So yeah, I like the Rangers at
12:47this price with DeGrom on the mound to get it done. Look at that. Step up to the plate, Texas,
12:53make a race out of this thing. Help out the Seattle Mariners, knock off those in-state rivals,
12:57Houston Astros. Let's go out to the West Coast here where the Philadelphia Phillies are owning
13:01the Los Angeles Dodgers. And it looks like right now it is a two-team race in the NL. It's the
13:06Philadelphia Phillies and the Milwaukee Brewers for that top spot. The more the Phillies keep
13:09pounding the Dodgers, the farther back they get. I think the Dodgers are seven games back,
13:13I want to say, of the Philadelphia Phillies for that number two seed if we're talking about winning
13:16the division race and how those teams will be seeded once they hit the playoffs. Tonight,
13:209-13, 9-14 on the rotation, a 10-10 start. The Phillies are going to throw out Lozardo and going
13:26up against my guy, Blake Snell. Two lefties on the mound, a favorite for the Dodgers,
13:30just like we saw last night. A total of eight, primarily what we saw last night. More runs
13:35coming. Lozardo's been very good. Snell's been good. How do we play this game tonight at Chavez
13:40Ravine at 10-10 Eastern? Yeah, it's, you know, Snell has had a rough go of it. He started off great
13:47once they got him back. And now the walks have started to creep up a little bit here. The
13:54strikeouts have taken a step back a little bit. And again, he's still, you know, it's been a while
13:58since he pitched. You can't miss, you know, three quarters of the season and come in and expect it's
14:03just going to be great. I do think runs could be coming in this one. So I'd be looking at the over
14:10tonight. The bats for Philly, the bats for the Dodgers have been red hot. There's no reason to think
14:15we can't get over eight runs in this game. Gotcha. I'm with you here. We'll see what
14:20happens out on the West coast, see what the Philadelphia Phillies do to try to hang around
14:23the Brewers. And also more importantly, the Dodgers probably looking earlier in the day. Hey,
14:27New York Mets, can you help us out again with a victory? And then we compile one, one, and it's
14:31two more games in our favor. And away you go as the division champions for the Dodgers here.
14:35I do want to spend a little bit of time talking about the AL MVP race here, Joe. And it is obviously
14:40between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. Now the odds makers will lend you to believe that's probably
14:44going to be Aaron Judge, but I'm trying to, to be honest, Joe, like I'm trying to figure out why
14:49if we're looking at one of the toughest positions in major league baseball, and you could probably
14:53say the toughest is playing catcher on a day-to-day basis. Cal Raleigh does do that. Now
14:57is Cal Raleigh's batting average as high as Aaron Judge is hitting 326? No, but he has more home runs
15:02and more RBI and plays the catcher every single day and hasn't missed multiple weeks like Aaron Judge
15:07has. So understand this, do we see the odds makers? Because if I'm looking right now and I'm just
15:12going to pick out FanDuel, minus 900. Why is Aaron Judge honestly a minus 900 favorite to win
15:18the MVP right now over Cal Raleigh? Yeah, because one plays in the New York media market, the other
15:25plays in Seattle. And that's the problem here. And listen, as good as Seattle has been here,
15:33Donnie, right? They've not been the biggest topic of conversation over the last month here
15:38in major league baseball. It's always about what the Yankees are doing, what the Dodgers are doing,
15:44and can the Red Sox catch him, and yada, yada, yada. In the meantime, he's passed guys like Johnny Bench
15:50for most home runs in a season by a catcher, Salvatore Perez. He also just, I believe, is now tied with
15:58Griffey for the most home runs in a season as a Mariner. And you're not hearing any of that in the media.
16:04And that's why Judge is basically minus 900 at this point. It's pretty incredible, like the rise
16:11for Cal Raleigh, right? 28 years old. Like you look at him, looks like he's 35. He's like, oh, he's been
16:15around the major leagues for a long time. That's not really been the case. He's just really excelling.
16:18And again, 56 home runs for Raleigh compared to 48 for Aaron Judge. RBI markets here, 118 for Cal Raleigh.
16:26You look at Aaron Judge, 103. And I'm not saying that's the end all be all. And yes, Aaron Judge is
16:30hitting 326 and Cal Raleigh is below that. But I always like to take a look at, Joe, like
16:34the extracurriculars, right? Like the Yankees aren't going to win the division. Like Cal Raleigh's
16:39hitting home runs down the stretch in a tight race for the Astros, where he's that linchpin
16:43that can hit four more home runs, give them the division championship, and he hit 60 home runs.
16:48There's no way he shouldn't be the MVP. I'm sorry.
16:51Yeah. Yeah. And it's so funny, Donnie, because when you think about it, here's a few guys that have
16:56never hit 50 home runs in a season. Guys like Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Reggie Jackson,
17:03Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt, Lou Gehrig. You're getting like what this dude has done here as a
17:10switch hitter, as a catcher in this season is one of the all-time greatest seasons that we have seen
17:18here. Now, does that mean he's going to do it again next year and a year after that? No, but just take
17:23it for what it is. One of the all-time greatest seasons we've seen by a switch hitter.
17:29It's really impressive when you watch it play out because this isn't a part-time DH. It's like,
17:33hey, you know what? I just hang out in the back. I hit home runs. No wear and tear. This is a guy
17:38playing catcher. And if anybody says, well, he plays catcher. It's a part of baseball. Do me a favor.
17:42If you're just watching, you don't have to be a professional athlete. Go stand in a catcher's
17:46position for 30 seconds and go, oh my goodness. Yeah. And do that for 160 or so games and do it for
17:53three to four hours every single night, which includes catching bullpen sessions and then the
17:57Major League Baseball game itself, and then go up to the plate and hit 60 home runs against Major
18:02League Baseball pitching. Yeah, that's right. You can't do it. Cal Raleigh for me right now.
18:06He's my MVP. I'm telling you, if he hits 60 and he doesn't get that MVP award,
18:10do away with the MVP award. We don't want it anymore.
18:12All right. We went to the National League. We asked a simple question at SportsGrid,
18:24which is our account on X. And that question was, which team do you think misses the playoffs
18:28this season? Four options. The Mets plus 350. The Astros plus 610. The Rangers minus 590 and the
18:35Diamondbacks minus 1200. So actually it is the National League and the American League with a
18:39nice little mix right here. For me, I voted the Rangers at 32%, but they're minus 590. Come on
18:45now. I mean, how much of a step out are we doing at this point? I don't think the Rangers get in,
18:48but they do have a last stand effort tonight with Jacob DeGrom on the mound. If you had a vote and you
18:53did, Joe, where did you go? Oh, the Mets, without a doubt. Give me the Mets. I think it makes for
18:59such a better story, Donnie. Does it not? I mean, what would that be like? What would the headlines
19:05be like if that actually comes to fruition? Listen, one of these teams is going to get hot
19:10here, right? One of those teams is going to get hot and make a run. Is it Houston right now? Is it
19:16Arizona who's been playing incredibly good baseball? Which one is it, Donnie? Because one of those
19:23teams or a few of those teams are going to be on the outside looking in. Absolutely. And now we rise
19:28like a Phoenix from the ashes. The place didn't work out too well this night. You can't always win
19:32every single night. Let's get after some bye-bye-bye tonight.
19:42Step back into the arena, Joe Ranieri tonight. We need you all hands on deck. Where are we going
19:47tonight for a W? Yeah, that was pretty funny. Worst start in a long time there for Mr. Skeens
19:55yesterday. But I think we're going to get a big bounce back spot here tonight. I'd like it for
20:01the Dodgers who all the quotes coming out, Donnie. They are not happy having lost that game yesterday
20:08in the fashion they did with Otani having a no hitter of all things through five innings there.
20:14And then, of course, hitting the home run. And all of that was for not as the bullpen came in and
20:21melted. Snell on the mound here tonight going up against Lozardo. We know Lozardo. Which one shows up?
20:28I trust them a little bit more at home than I do on the road. I think you see a big effort out of
20:34the Dodgers. And with Snell on the mound at that price, Donnie, yeah, it's absolutely worth a bet to
20:41get behind the Dodgers to win one here tonight. See if Otani can go yard again. Lozardo's been a
20:47good pitcher there. Snell as well. Probably a lower scoring game. We'll see if the Dodgers pull it out.
20:50They have to. You can't just keep losing games because eventually San Diego's going to win.
20:54And also, you probably like it even more, Joe, right? You watch earlier in the day. If the
20:58Padres can knock off the Mets, that's extra pressure on the Dodgers. Okay, good. Padres
21:03lost again. It's no big deal at this point. Let's go out there and play some baseball. We'll see if
21:06that pressure turns up. For me, I'm going with an over. Last night, we had 19 runs with the
21:10Minnesota Twins. Now, again, ebbs and flows of baseball. Yeah, one to nothing sets up, right?
21:15Because the night before, the Yankees scored zero runs on two base hits. Last night, they exploded
21:19for 10 runs. Heel versus Bradley. Two pitchers that can be hit. 77 degrees at first pitch. I
21:25expect more runs tonight. I'm going over the nine runs in the Twin Cities tonight between
21:31the Yankees and the Twins here, Joe. That's where I'm going. Yep. Yep. I mean, listen,
21:36that bullpen of Minnesota is awful as well. So yeah, then we should absolutely, once we get
21:42past the starters, we should get a whole lot of runs in the latter half of these innings
21:46as well. So I'm with you. It is only an over for me in that spot.
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