00:00Shout out to our guy, Bill Sparks, who, uh, if you guys don't know him on Twitter, uh,
00:04at spark scouting, he also has a sub stack on, uh, at spark scouting and, uh, does a
00:10lot of stuff with the NFL drafted big Browns fan as well.
00:13And he put together kind of a list of these six quarterbacks that have made six plus starts
00:19and we're late round.
00:20So fourth round quarterbacks on since 2016.
00:23Okay.
00:23So Dak Prescott, Aiden O'Connell, Brock Purdy, Gardner Minshew, Trevor Simeon and Sam Howell.
00:28And he did kind of an average of their stats, which by the way, the premise of this then
00:33starts at the idea that we're just, uh, I mean, it should, or was a fifth round pick.
00:36No one can deny that, but it's that we have to then treat it as if he was a legitimate
00:40fifth round pick and nothing else happened because of that.
00:43So he, uh, the, the, uh, the combined numbers average out to 64% completion percentage, uh,
00:5019 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and 13 starts.
00:54And I thought it was in a two kind of additional notes here that would have put him around
00:58quarterback 18 to quarterback 22 range in most categories last year.
01:02And it was slightly worse than average ball security in 2025 as well.
01:07Uh, I and T's would rank around seventh most.
01:09I think if you came out of this season and those were his stats after where the stats were
01:15last year, I think that would represent a significant step forward for Shador Sanders.
01:19Oh, I think so too.
01:20I mean, I think this is, I bring it up often the, the two people that had like a massive
01:24year three to year four jump.
01:25It's Russell Wilson.
01:26It's Dak Prescott, but I bring up Dak because in this convo, he fits what you are applying
01:30here.
01:30And like, uh, yeah, that would, the conversation would shift then to, all right, he showed a
01:35lot of growth.
01:36He showed a lot of, uh, maybe it wasn't a, a Jaden Daniels esque right away jump, but he
01:41showed a lot.
01:41And then you're hoping your three year four is when you take off in a big time way.
01:45Yeah.
01:45I think there's this, and I think it's wrong-minded.
01:48I think there's this notion of the end of this next season, you're going to have a definitive
01:53take.
01:53Shador is a franchise quarterback or Shador is not.
01:57That is not the question.
01:58I mean, listen, if you can answer that question one season, thumbs up, Ray, you get to, uh,
02:04you get to skip past go and collect your $200.
02:06It is more likely than not, that we'll be able to answer the no part of it.
02:09Oh yeah.
02:10Yeah.
02:10I think it's incredibly hard to answer the yes part of it.
02:12Exactly.
02:13And I think what you're really trying to ask is by the end of the season, if it's Shador
02:18versus Deshaun, what you're really trying to ask is, is Shador a starting caliber quarterback
02:23in the NFL?
02:24And that could put him anywhere from one to about 22.
02:27So I think that is the range that you're looking for.
02:30If he passes that bar, I think that feels like a real win considering it's a fifth round
02:36pick a year ago.
02:37But I think the one thing like these stats in a vacuum are only one part of the tail.
02:42If, if this is, if this is his stats and you're five and 12, you're getting another quarterback
02:48next year.
02:49If these are his stats and you're 12 and five, you're rolling with Shador going forward.
02:54Yeah.
02:54No questions asked.
02:55Uh, I, now I, I just wonder though, if we're trying to give him some of these like massive
02:59year two leaps and obviously people are going to go to Drake may cause Drake may is just,
03:03I just came off.
03:04I'm just a, in a crazy accomplished one, but like Caleb Williams falls in that category
03:08as well.
03:09And these are obviously all taken top three overall between the two of them.
03:12Uh, but look at what those rosters and what happened to those rosters from one season to
03:16the next Chicago had everyone under the sun.
03:18You add a Dunze and all these other pieces.
03:21And they're like, they just kept adding and kept adding to the offensive side.
03:24Drake may, we can talk about all those guys they've added as well.
03:26And it's like, I don't know that the Browns did enough for that discussion, but like,
03:31if you want that level of a jump up, I think that's, that's asking a lot.
03:35Um, I think, yeah, I mean, again, one is the number two pick number three pick from three
03:40years ago.
03:41And the other is a guy that was a fifth round pick.
03:43Even if you think he was a second round talent, I just think it's interesting.
03:45Like what I love about what bill did is he at least tried to put numbers on it.
03:50I think when you get to like, what are your expectations or what are your hopes for Shador
03:54the conversation, like every other Shador conversation gets wonky and disjointed so
04:00quick.
04:01They think trying to hone in on like, what are fair expectations for him?
04:06If he's the starter, I think that's the most important thing we do because again, like
04:11I do think winning is the thing that is going to keep him in that job more than anything.
04:15Well, what's funny about that?
04:16Cause you mentioned 12 wins.
04:18Uh, but then I, even like last year he went three and four and, uh, there's just enough
04:21people out there that don't care about whether you win or lose the game.
04:24Like, and like, so for Shador, for instance, and I listen, I, I tend to fall into the, the
04:28idea that a quarterback wins aren't necessarily the greatest quarterback stat.
04:32That's just, that's just how I look at it.
04:34I don't use that as a big referendum.
04:35If you're winning 12 games in the NFL, something happened right though, clearly, but with Shador
04:39last year, advanced analytics didn't care how many games he won.
04:43Yeah.
04:43And so like, I, I think that's an interesting part of this discussion.
04:46Is it about the wins or is it about the stats or is it how it looks in between?
04:50Yeah.
04:50It's definitely how it looks in between.
04:52But like, again, like I think if we go to the extremes, his stats look good, but they're
04:57five and 12.
04:58Well, we should use the Gardner Minshew rule.
05:00Gardner Minshew was a starter.
05:03Uh, the numbers look fine by the way.
05:05For years, Gardner had a three to one touchdown interception ratio.
05:07Like for years before he got a chance to actually play in, in, uh, with the Raiders, he had
05:11really good numbers.
05:12Oddly enough.
05:13But the Jaguars got the number one pick the next year.
05:15Yeah.
05:15So if, if you swap that, like somewhere in the middle is if Shador goes nine and eight.
05:21And I actually do think like, I think this is a conservative kind of projection for Shador.
05:26Uh, I don't care as much about completion percentage as everybody does because I think,
05:30I think players have never been more cognizant of how to pad stats when it comes to that.
05:34Again, the idea that the throwing to the flat and getting zero yardage, but it's a completion
05:40as a positive play is asinine to me.
05:42If you, or if you gained one, one yard, that's a positive play.
05:45That is just that, that is a flaw within the way we look at stats.
05:49However, like if you go 24 touchdowns to 12 INTs, so a straight up two to one INT ratio,
05:55you're able to stay healthy this entire season and you land around 3,800 to 4,000 yards with
06:02how I think this offense is going to function.
06:05I don't know how you could be less than 500 at that point.
06:09How many yards did you say?
06:10You said 3,800 to 4,000?
06:113,800 to 4,000, yeah.
06:12Yeah.
06:12I mean, think about it.
06:12Like we've had, uh, Bernie was right at the 4,000 mark.
06:16It's not like the Browns have had a bunch of 4,000 yard passers in the, in the franchise
06:20history.
06:21Baker ended up a season there.
06:22I think he was just shy of it in a Browns uniform.
06:24Like, like get it.
06:25That's a, that's a, that's a big number, Nick.
06:26Yeah.
06:27That's a lot of yards.
06:27Well, and it's, but it, I think that is in today's era.
06:30I think that's where you need to be.
06:31But also playing every single week, like, and I, I know that the bar makes it sound
06:35incredibly low when I'm like, oh, but he played all 17 games, but like since Baker and even
06:39before Baker, how many Browns players have we seen play all 17?
06:42It just doesn't happen.
06:43Yeah.
06:44And I, I think there's a part of me that I know the supporters need Shadour.
06:49Like we need to talk about Shadour.
06:50Like he's the greatest quarterback ever.
06:52And he's a, you know, he's flawless.
06:54And the Browns are the biggest problem in the, the whole NFL.
06:57And then when it comes to supporters, I'm sorry, the shahaters, we have to talk about
07:01him like he's the worst quarterback in the NFL and that the Browns really have tried
07:06everything they could.
07:06And the truth is it's somewhere in the middle.
07:09And so our expectations should be somewhere in the middle.
07:13I don't, I'm not going to grade Shadour versus a franchise quarterback.
07:17I'm going to grade him on, can you please just get us to a level of stability and competency
07:23in that quarterback room?
07:25Cause you just have not had it since Baker in 2020.
07:28Well, and I think that it just becomes obvious when you watch the games and you figure out
07:32whether or not he can or can't.
07:33And like, I'm talking about quarterbacks in general, like you mentioned wins losses.
07:36We were talking about that a second ago, Drake may year one, didn't win a lot of games.
07:39Patriots took a fourth overall as far as the draft pick off of that season.
07:43Like you didn't win a lot of games and it happens all the time, but you knew everyone in
07:46new England knew they had found their guy.
07:48Like you can have those types of seasons where you win five or six games.
07:52Now the difference though, is that they knew they had their guy and wasn't going to pivot
07:55for Shadour.
07:56He's up against the NFL draft in 2027.
07:58Yeah.
07:59And so like, there is a level that he has to, if he wants job security for himself, he
08:03does have to check a couple boxes that someone like Drake may, for instance, in year one didn't
08:07necessarily have to check off.
08:08So you heard the averages for late round.
08:11So fourth round quarterbacks and on since, uh, since 2016 from Bill Sparks and, uh, Sparks
08:18scouting on his sub stack, 64 touchdowns, sorry, 64 touchdowns, 64% completion percentage,
08:2519 touchdowns, 11 INTs and 13 starts.
08:28Uh, what would this mean for the Browns if that was Shadour's stat line in 2026?
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