METOFFICE_10DAY_060825

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 06/08/2025.  Storm Dexter may bring wet and windy weather; unlikely as severe as Floris. Then a chance of something hotter.   Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Honor Criswick.

Transcript

00:00Storm florist brought with it strong winds and heavy outbreaks of rain and there's another

00:05Atlantic low on its way. Now it's unlikely to be quite as severe but after that could there be a

00:11heat wave on the horizon. Well let's start off by taking a look at the bigger picture and here

00:16shown by the arrows and the pink shaded colours that's the position of our jet stream the fast

00:21flowing ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere and what you'll notice is that it's a rather

00:26straight and zonal pattern and what we tend to find with this kind of jet stream formation is

00:30that it picks up areas of low pressure from the Atlantic and drags them towards us here in the

00:35UK and that's kind of what's happening later Wednesday through into Thursday is an area of

00:40low pressure just to the southeast of Iceland dragging in frontal systems so a chance of clouds

00:44and rain but really noticed how many isobars are on the chart here particularly to the northwest so

00:49not only a chance of rain also some windy weather particularly across western Scotland but all eyes

00:55really are on this area of low pressure just in the western part of the Atlantic and this is

01:00actually tropical storm Dexter and as it moves its way towards the country it weakens so so then it

01:06becomes ex-tropical storm Dexter as it moves its way towards us in the UK over the coming days not

01:12really reaching western parts of the country until later Sunday through into Monday but what's really

01:18interesting about this feature is as it does gradually move its way closer it becomes elongated and

01:23we actually see two separate areas of low pressure the one to the south being ex-tropical storm

01:28Dexter and that does really make it quite tricky to forecast and depending what happens with Dexter

01:35really amplifies what could potentially happen as we head into next week before we get on to that

01:41though I do just want to draw your attention to Thursday because many of us are likely going to be

01:47waking up to quite a cloudy and damp picture particularly in Wales parts of Devon and Cornwall but this system

01:52is mostly a weakening feature so as it drifts its way south eastwards any rain tending to break up

01:58become quite light but it is likely to be quite cloudy across central areas and parts of the south and

02:03there's also a risk of showers once again particularly across the north west where it's going to be

02:07fairly breezy but it's not really until the afternoon that we'll start to see those winds really

02:12strengthen around those exposed coasts but for many by the afternoon it will start to brighten up much

02:18lighter winds across the south too so feeling more pleasant particularly where you pick up any brighter

02:22spells highs reaching around 23 to 24 degrees celsius now for Friday the end of the week many areas

02:30across Wales England and Wales are going to see a much brighter start plenty of sunny spells there might

02:36just be some hazy sunshine particularly as we head into the afternoon and we start to see that

02:40convective cloud build but otherwise it should remain mostly dry but in the north it's likely to be

02:46fairly blustery some quite strong winds at times even a chance of gales across exposed northwest but

02:52these should be mostly isolated but there are also going to be outbreaks of rain this could turn

02:56heavy and blustery at times so we're almost a north-south split in the weather but it's really

03:00across Scotland where we're likely to see those wet and windy conditions and elsewhere it should be

03:05mostly dry a slight uptick in those temperatures too highs reaching around 24 to 25 degrees celsius

03:12across the southeast then if you have any plans over the weekend particularly as it's still the summer

03:17holidays for many of us well once again there's going to be lots of dry weather around and we'll

03:22see a slow increase in those temperatures over the weekend too this time reaching around 25 to 26

03:27degrees celsius in the south but always across the north always that much windier there also a chance

03:32of some heavy possibly even blustery showers so always slightly cooler in that wind and under the

03:37cloud but elsewhere once again a fairly pleasant start to the weekend and conditions aren't too dissimilar as

03:44we head into sunday once again much of england and wales starting to really feel that heat on sunday

03:48temperatures pushing into the high 20s but still once again across scotland possibly even parts of

03:53northern ireland cooler cloudy with some heavy outbreaks of rain and also some strong winds at

03:59times so yes many seeing a dry and bright weekend but there is also some rain on the cars so to summarize

04:06this weekend yes often wet and windy in the northwest mostly dry in the south but by time we reach sunday

04:11it is going to feel locally hot in that sunshine so do take care as we'll start to see those uv levels

04:17uv levels rise then how about after the weekend obviously i've mentioned the storm and that will

04:23push its way closer later sunday through into monday becoming that double feature but there is still

04:29some variation in the models as to exact track of these lows and the positioning too so that's really

04:35gonna counteract whereabouts we see the strongest of the winds and the heaviest outbreaks of rain but

04:41nevertheless the models do generally agree that there's going to be two centers of the low and

04:46that does mean it's likely that we'll start to see that wet and possibly quite windy weather start to

04:51push in from the west also a chance of showery outbreaks across some eastern areas but there's

04:56still fairly low confidence as to once as i say exactly where the heaviest of rain is going to be

05:01and where the strongest winds are going to be but it's likely there'll be some brighter interludes it's

05:05likely that should be fairly hot in places particularly across central areas and parts of the southeast where by

05:11there's a good chance we could start to push into the low 30s but as i say there is some model

05:18variation as to the exact track of tropical storm dexter and if we show by the green and also the

05:25blue colors these are the potential tracks that the ensemble members of our models are starting to

05:30show and taking a look at the green and blue lines you can see most of them are drifting their way

05:35across the atlantic and slightly further north pushing into parts of the uk but not all agree

05:40in fact the american model gfs shown by the pink colors does have it drifting slightly further south

05:46more staying towards the azores so there's still a chance a low chance that it might not even reach

05:51us all together but nevertheless many of the models are actually agreeing that there's going to be some

05:56wet and windy weather pushing its way early into next week not only this but there's a chance of some

06:03quite hot temperatures too and taking a look at these graphics actually kind of looks like that

06:07a warm plume moving in from the near continent but actually that heat source is drifting its way across

06:12the atlantic and it starts to circulate towards the southeast and that means we will start to see

06:16those temperatures rise particularly from sunday monday tuesday and possibly wednesday as well

06:22and this is shown by what we call our box and whisker plots as we head further into the next couple of

06:28weeks and the wider these boxes get the more spread there is in the model so more uncertainty you could

06:33say as we head into the future but for both northern and southern areas as we head further into next

06:39week there is a slight increase in those temperatures so a good signal we could definitely start to see

06:44temperatures push into the high 20s and possibly even into the low 30s so let's take a chance of

06:50seeing 30 let's take a look at the chances of seeing 30 degrees as we head into next week so monday

06:56it doesn't look like it's going to be quite as widespread on monday more localized spots just about

07:00reaching 30 degrees celsius shown by these small little yellow colors here across parts of the southeast

07:06so london for example could start to see 30 degrees on monday heading into tuesday some slightly darker

07:11colors so more of a probability that we could see a few more areas starting to see 30 degrees celsius

07:17possibly a degree or two higher at this point we're looking at around 10 chance of pushing into

07:22kind of 32 33 possibly even 34 degrees celsius and wednesday once again particularly across central

07:28areas and parts of the south and southeast it's likely we'll see temperatures of around 30 degrees

07:33possibly a degree or two higher but once again on wednesday it's still very much dependent on

07:39how quickly storm dexter could potentially push through how quickly the wind and rain will push through

07:44as well and it's still around a week away so definitely one we need to keep an eye on how long that

07:49wet spell could potentially stick around for nevertheless it does look like it's at the

07:54moment it's going to be fairly brief and towards the end of next week we're likely to see a return

07:59of the azores high stretching its way into western areas and that allows once again that atlantic mobility

08:04to take hold so it's possible that we'll see a return of that northwest southeast split some more wet

08:10and windy weather possibly pushing into parts of scotland northern ireland possibly even northern parts of

08:14england but across many areas of central and southern england it's likely to remain fairly dry and bright

08:21sort of typical summertime conditions so into next week yes a chance of a brief hot spell mostly across

08:28central and southern parts and a return of that westerly flow some more areas of low pressure

08:33potentially or frontal systems moving in from the west but it's still very much dependent on the exact

08:38track of ex-tropical storm dexter as it should become over the next few days but of course we'll be

08:44here across youtube and our social media channels to keep you updated

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