New Year's Eve cold and snow, then what?

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno breaks down the snow coming to the Midwest and Northeast on New Year's Eve.

Transcript

00:00and the last forecast feed or as i call it the feed of 2025 and we'll be talking about new year's

00:13eve snow even toward new york city we've been talking about this arctic boundary since remember

00:17last week won't be a big storm but it will be a disruptive system now as we get in the late next

00:24week that that's the time frame i've been looking at that if there was going to be a sizable storm

00:29that's what it would be but i i'm shocked at how the modeling has changed significantly from where

00:35we were earlier in the week showing a big crop coming into these maybe something coming up the

00:40coast i don't see none of that now doesn't mean that there's still not some of a threat there but

00:45certainly it's not looked the way i thought it would earlier in the week let's take it one by

00:50one here i want to show you this is the system that we're going to be tracking here today listen not a

00:55big snow but i'll tell you what you're going to see the modeling here chicago detroit indianapolis

01:01cleveland here i mean you've got to be careful of this we have it as a storm but it's really an

01:07arctic boundary coming south there's going to be some heavier snow squalls this afternoon in this area

01:13it doesn't snow a loss but it can come fast and furious and if you're on interstates 80 70 any of

01:21the interstates in here you've got to be careful you can have reduced visibility and all of a sudden

01:26you go from uh you go from uh nothing to some major problems on the roadways be careful let me show you

01:36how this is going to work and then we'll take a look uh at uh what's going to be happening uh next

01:42week so let's talk about this uh first dip in the jet stream that's coming our way here let me show you

01:48the modeling here here we go so here it is uh right here okay so it's this short wave in here this is

01:56where we are this morning now we've talked about this since last week that the deeper this goes

02:01the more widespread snow there will be especially along the east coast so we'll track that first

02:07and you can see that coming across the upper midwest here it comes and then watch what happens this is

02:13around midnight and then 7 a.m right in here now i'm going to stop it and what will happen is you're

02:20going to get snow across new york state parts of pennsylvania but once you get what i call east of

02:26the mountains east of this line so east of the appalachians what will end up happening is if you're

02:32on the southern side of this short wave or this energy you're going to get such a strong westerly wind

02:37you down slope and nothing happens so the snow showers make it up to the appalachians and then

02:43once you get east of the appalachians you get nothing however there's going to be a location

02:49right in here and it's right here and as i talked about i always thought new york city was on

02:53on the line of this that because of the short waves deepening so much north of this line you don't

03:00get the down sloping westerly flow so the snow makes it right to the coast and i think that's going

03:06to be the the dividing line here is going to be around new york city it's going to be around new

03:11york city long island on north where you're going to get a little bit of snow now you'll also get

03:15it as i mentioned into the appalachians but if you're like in harrisburg philadelphia southern new

03:22jersey probably central new jersey let's say interstate 80 the cutoff there on south you probably

03:28don't get any snow northern new jersey i'm always being told i'm not mentioning new jersey enough

03:32so northern new jersey new york city long island in the southeastern new england you're going to get

03:38an accumulating snow here for new year's eve if you're watching the ball drop here tonight you're

03:43going to see it in new york city you'll you'll see the snow here how much is not going to be a lot

03:48you're going to see a lot of coatings to an inch here and here's the time frame that we're looking

03:52at here through wednesday night uh in the central pennsylvania and then east of this line wednesday

03:59night and this includes for new york city again northern new jersey i'm using around interstate

04:0480 cutoff this is when the snow arrives coating to an inch doesn't sound like a lot but the ground is

04:09so cold that there certainly can be some slippery spots here so do be careful if you're traveling

04:14tonight now i want to get into next week because i'm really surprised at how the modeling has changed

04:21as we get toward the middle part of next week now everything else that we talked about

04:26through early next week is right in that you're going to see an injection of cold air coming

04:32i'll show you the surface map here as we get in the early next week this is sunday in the monday

04:38you can see the high pressure building on it so we've got cold air in place it's not super cold

04:43but it's cold enough for snow and then what i thought was going to happen was that as we got in

04:49the middle part of the week you would see a big trough to develop here along the east coast

04:54a storm would form and depending on where this trough would locate uh the storm would either

05:00go out to sea or try to come up the coast well take a look at the upper air pattern later this week

05:08i don't see see this right in here you see this trough in here near james bay this is the trough i thought

05:15would come down and dig like this or or along the east coast like this but look at the modeling now

05:24as we get in the wednesday thursday none of that at all there's no digging now there is this little

05:31piece of energy coming eastward wednesday into thursday you see it i went forward right into here

05:37this system will have to be watched but the the thing is if you're looking for snow in the northeast

05:45the snow snow the cold air is leaving on wednesday and thursday so unless this would come down and dig

05:54a little more and and come instead of coming across the country like this it comes like this there's not

06:02going to be a lot of snow with it look at the surface map see here comes the storm so this is

06:06the one i was thinking about but it's awfully far north now if this digs a little more instead of the

06:12storm taking a track farther north like here you see it tracking like this if it's a little farther

06:19south then we have a possibility but i'm not too optimistic right now for snow i i i really thought

06:25with this cold air in place that there'd be an opportunity middle january or at least late next week

06:31now beyond that the pattern going farther here it looks like the cold air leaves this is by the

06:38middle part of april of of january if this is right the upper highs here and your snow chances are not

06:44in the mid-atlantic and northeast but in the central part of the united states so until mid-january right

06:51now unless that system changes late next week not looking for a lot of snow in the mid-atlantic

06:57and the northeast happy new year

06:59you

07:00you

07:03you

07:05you

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