00:00All right, we're on a break from a lot of snow across the Northeast.
00:06Of course, we've been dealing with some earlier today.
00:08I think the storm on Wednesday is going to bypass the Northeast.
00:12But as I said last week, my antennas are up for next week.
00:16We're getting snow and ice.
00:18There's still some details to be worked out.
00:25Whether it's a Monday system or it's a Tuesday-Wednesday system,
00:30but there's snow and ice coming into the Northeast next week.
00:34I don't think there's much debate about that.
00:36I want to kind of show you the graphic here, and this is it right now.
00:43There we go.
00:44Let me go back to there.
00:45All right, there we go.
00:48This is the area to watch from the Midwest,
00:52but I really think the big problems are going to be in this zone
00:56from the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast.
00:58There's going to be some in here,
01:00but I think the more bigger impacts are going to be in the Mid-Atlantic
01:07and the Northeastern part of the United States as we head into next week here.
01:14So let me show you where we're going to go here,
01:16and then we'll come back to this map.
01:18It all begins with what?
01:20But as I always say in injection of cold air, I want to show this to you.
01:24This is going to be sneaky cold air Sunday night in the Monday here.
01:28Let me put this on the two-shot so you can watch it.
01:31So here we are Friday.
01:32This is the European.
01:33Here comes the cold air.
01:34Look at this coming on down.
01:35This is Saturday.
01:37Saturday afternoon, Saturday evening.
01:39So enjoy.
01:40It's going to be balmy, mild, whatever, balmy.
01:43Let's call it balmy.
01:44Out ahead of this front on Saturday.
01:47And then look at the cold air coming in on Sunday.
01:50And by Monday morning, this is pretty cold air.
01:53In fact, let's zoom into the Northeast.
01:56Look at this cold.
01:57I mean, you've got a lot of cold air all the way down here.
02:00Look at this damning.
02:02The cold air goes all the way down.
02:04The 32-degree line goes all the way down into Virginia.
02:08So you have a fresh, cold air mass.
02:13Now, this is where it gets tricky.
02:16There are two trains of thought here.
02:18There's one train of thought that the storm is coming Monday.
02:22And if we do have a storm on Monday, this will be a snowstorm.
02:26This will easily be a snowstorm for Pennsylvania, Northern Maryland, New York City,
02:31where you could easily get over, easily over a half a foot of snow if this storm comes on Monday.
02:37Now, I think the preponderance of evidence suggests that the system is Tuesday.
02:42And if that's the case, then the snow will be farther north.
02:46So it all depends on how this shakes out as we get into Sunday, Monday.
02:51Let me explain what's going on.
02:54Now, as always, there's a model difference.
02:58Let's take a look at the American model.
03:00Now, the first thing I want to show you is by Monday, why am I so sure there's going to
03:06be snow and ice?
03:07Well, we have the injection of cold air.
03:09But no matter what you look at, and the details are a little different, you've got what I call a
03:13split flow here.
03:14You have a southern branch of the jet stream and a northern branch of the jet stream, right?
03:19You see the two branches?
03:21This is the northern branch.
03:22This is the southern branch.
03:24And where they come together and meet, that's where you have conflict.
03:28And that's where you're going to have precipitation.
03:30Now, this is the American model.
03:32The European model, same story.
03:34Look, you have a split flow.
03:36The Canadian, you have a split flow.
03:38So that's why I'm convinced when you have an injection of cold air and a split flow, the southern branch
03:45has the moisture.
03:46The northern branch keeps the cold air locked in.
03:48You get snow and ice.
03:49So that's why I'm convinced.
03:50When I saw this earlier in the week, I was convinced we're getting snow and ice.
03:54It's just the details that are a little different right now.
03:57Let me show you what they are.
03:58I want to show you the American model.
04:01So the American model has a strong piece of energy coming in here.
04:05You see this Monday dropping in right in here?
04:09This is Monday morning right here.
04:11You're dropping in a northern piece of energy.
04:13You're getting a little piece of energy coming in from this upper low off California.
04:17And what the GFS suggests, the American model is, is, well, no, this is your storm.
04:23This comes on through.
04:25And then whatever follows it is insignificant.
04:29Okay.
04:30That's what, and you could see why.
04:31Look at that piece of energy.
04:33The other modeling says, no, that's not right.
04:37This piece of energy is weaker.
04:39Watch the European model.
04:41See the difference?
04:43American, European.
04:44American, European.
04:46It's way up here.
04:46It's way up across northern Michigan.
04:49And that suggests now it's a weak system.
04:52Your storm is here.
04:54Look at that dip in the jet stream Tuesday across Minneapolis, Chicago.
04:59This is your storm.
05:00You see that dip in the jet stream?
05:02That's coming into Tuesday and Wednesday.
05:04That's the main storm.
05:05And the Canadian model, similar to the European model in that.
05:10Remember, this is the American model.
05:13See that big piece of energy across northern Wisconsin?
05:15Look at the Canadian.
05:17It's a lot weaker with it, right?
05:19And that's what, and the American model, the European model shows that as well.
05:24So let me show you the differences here.
05:27Remember, this is the American model, and I'm going to stop this Sunday evening.
05:33This setup is textbook heavy snow for the mid-Atlantic and New York City and Philadelphia.
05:43Why?
05:43You've got a big high-pressure system here.
05:46Look at it.
05:46Right in here.
05:48And because you've got a wave then attacking that cold air, this is a huge, this is a big snow
05:54here.
05:55For Philadelphia, New York City, even Washington, D.C., someone would get a foot of snow out of this,
06:016 to 12 inches across Pennsylvania and New York State, because it has the first system.
06:05But the other modeling says, hmm, not so fast.
06:09Let me close the American model down.
06:11This is the European.
06:12The European weak system, see, there it is, weak system coming from Monday and Tuesday,
06:19a little bit of snow, Philadelphia, D.C., it's south of New York City, maybe an inch or two,
06:24but the bigger storm is in here, Tuesday and a Wednesday, and with that, the cold air is not as
06:32deep.
06:32So the storm's farther north, and the bigger snows are maybe 6 to 12 is up across New England,
06:38north of New York City and Philadelphia.
06:39Not sure what's right yet, but I do think we have to get ready for this.
06:46Snow and Ice is coming next week.
06:48Is it Monday or Tuesday?
06:51We'll see.
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