Significant snow for the interior Northeast next week

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish takes a look at the chance for snow next week in the Northeast.

Transcript

00:00it is time for our Thanksgiving forecast feed and it is feeding time we're going to be taking a look

00:11at the high likelihood for accumulating plowable snow early to midweek next week the first few

00:19days of December in areas across the northeast probably just west of I-95 and across the interior

00:27and we've got some cold air in place it's going to come in a couple of surges a couple of players

00:32on the field that may help to increase our likelihood of snow but at the same time the

00:38coast is probably going to be mainly a rain event if you are south of maybe Connecticut or New York

00:44City so let's take a look at some of the headlines here and overall we are looking at again some cold

00:49air that's initially in place high pressure one of the things in the world of pattern recognition

00:56that help us to to kind of weigh our forecasts and sometimes do better than the computer models

01:02and so forth and things that look atmospherically accurate or not we look at pattern recognition

01:08and we have an area of high pressure over eastern Canada now it's a little farther east than perhaps

01:13you'd want it to be if you're looking at at snow potential for the coast and it's going to be

01:19departing but it is initially one of the ingredients that will produce some cold air in the area

01:26low pressure is going to be moving off the Carolina coast and moving offshore up the northeast seaboard

01:31that's the storm system itself and accumulating snow will win out across the interior northeast

01:38so let's talk about what's happening and and how this plays out and then we'll end with a look at

01:44a graphic that we have produced to kind of summarize our thinking on who's likely to need

01:49the snow shovels and perhaps the snow plows next week so here we have again one area of low pressure

01:59that's a pretty powerful one up over eastern Canada as we kick this off and this is the storm

02:05that produced the blizzard across the upper great lakes and it's been followed by lake effect snow

02:11in the lake effect snow belts and that's also delivering the cold air cold blustery winds

02:15down into New York City and across the rest of the northeast we're looking officially at this is

02:22Black Friday morning and we're looking at about a mile up into the atmosphere 5,000 feet up 850

02:28millibars so overall there's going to be another storm system that kind of interrupts the flow for a

02:34time you can see this new zone of low pressure this is the big midwestern Saturday snowstorm it's

02:40going to be a big deal in Chicago and even as far south as St. Louis we'll likely see some snow

02:45from this one and we have plenty of information out there accuweather.com and the accuweather app for

02:50more details on that storm now it will temporarily track in such a way that it's going to lead to a

02:57little bit of temporary warming it kind of will erase some of the chill anybody east of the center

03:04of the storm track and you can see the center of the storm goes all the way up over Michigan

03:07so with a storm track like this that's not a snow producer for the northeast at least for the I-81

03:14or points east for this weekend but behind this system we will be watching as it does certainly

03:22have a cold front tied to it and on the back side of that storm system we get back into a setup it's

03:28going to bring some more chilly air back in so that opens the door again for some cold air to

03:33follow and that ultimately sets the table for what will become our snow producer for Monday and Tuesday

03:40Monday night and Tuesday so again there's initially cold air in place ahead of this storm let's take a

03:46look at the actual air temps and I want to key in on Tuesday morning at around 7 a.m. by the way there

03:53is some good cold air up there look at this sub-zero temperatures Sunday morning from Montana to South

03:59Dakota here's the European maybe a little more restrictive but up in Montana and North Dakota

04:04sub-zero lows and then into Monday morning GFS is pretty aggressive with these sub-zero lows this is

04:11a good cold air mass I'm circling areas that'll be below zero and again the European maybe a little

04:16more restrictive with that if we take this at face value a few nuggets down below zero but again a good

04:25cold air mass out there in the north central part of the US and up into parts of Canada Tuesday

04:31morning though this is around the time we can begin to see see some precipitation breakout for I-95 GFS

04:38you can see the freezing line that's the red line here that's 32 degree isotherm and the European

04:44pretty similar there's pretty good agreement here that we're going to be dealing with some some air

04:49that's cold enough for snow at the onset let's take a look at what's going on upstairs so the storm system

04:54that reaches the Pacific Northwest we're going to go back in time this is the shortwave that becomes

05:01our storm Tuesday if you go back back back back it makes landfall if you will somewhere near Vancouver

05:08or Seattle on Saturday around midday and here it is in the European when this disturbance makes its way

05:16over land for the first time it gets sampled by the network of weather observation centers air weather

05:22balloons and all kinds of things in a better way than when it's out over the ocean so that's going

05:26to lead to an improvement in the forecast confidence beginning this weekend and here it comes now the GFS

05:34model it it kind of fragments this into a couple of different waves but the precipitation forecast is

05:41pretty aggressive with the the GFS the European it's a little more consolidated but it hangs it back

05:47and still a potent low pressure system at a potent shortwave and as that kicks through it brings us a

05:54pretty good wall up with precipitation here we have the forecast of precipitation I wanted to point out

06:00these kinks in the isobars that's cold air damming that's a result of this area of high pressure there's

06:05your Canadian high and the kinks here in the isobars are a sign of cold air that gets trapped east to the

06:11mountains and the GFS would bring us a pretty good ice storm there in Charlottesville Virginia snow at the onset in

06:17Philly changing over to rain quickly because the glow tracks close enough to the coast for that change

06:22over to rain in the GFS now the European European is similar a little slower to arrive but still a

06:29change over to rain from Philly east to New York City southward but snow in the interior quick look

06:34at a comparison of model snowfall GFS is probably a little too robust with the 10 inch amounts European

06:40looks pretty realistic across the interior third opinion Canadian also pretty realistic west of I-95 we'd

06:47see some pretty good snow out there especially west of I-81 so we got to keep an eye on that

06:52here's our storm summary where snow is most likely Monday and Tuesday

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended